Early mortality and loss to follow-up in HIV-infected children starting antiretroviral therapy in Southern Africa

Many HIV-infected children in Southern Africa have been started on antiretroviral therapy (ART), but loss to follow up (LTFU) can be substantial. We analyzed mortality in children retained in care and in all children starting ART, taking LTFU into account.

Mortality associated with discordant responses to antiretroviral therapy in resource-constrained settings

Objectives: We assessed mortality associated with immunologic and virologic patterns of response at 6 months of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in HIV-infected individuals from resource-limited countries in Africa and South America. Methods: Patients who initiated HAART between 1996 and 2007, aged 16 years or older, and had at least 1 measurement (HIV-1 RNA plasma viral load or CD4 cell count) at 6 months of therapy (3-9 month window) were included. Therapy response was categorized as complete, discordant (virologic only or immunologic only), and absent. Associations between 6-month response to therapy and all-cause mortality were assessed by Cox proportional hazards regression. Robust standard errors were calculated to account for intrasite correlation. Results: A total of 7160 patients, corresponding to 15,107 person-years, were analyzed. In multivariable analysis adjusted for age at HAART initiation, baseline clinical stage and CD4 cell count, year of HAART initiation, clinic, occurrence of an AIDS-defining condition within the first 6 months of treatment, and discordant and absent responses were associated with increased risk of death. Conclusions: Similar to reports from high-income countries, discordant immunologic and virologic responses were associated with intermediate risk of death compared with complete and no response in this large cohort of HIV-1 patients from resource-limited countries. Our results support a recommendation for wider availability of plasma viral load testing to monitor antiretroviral therapy in these settings.

Mortality after failure of antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa

Objective  To assess the outcome of patients who experienced treatment failure with antiretrovirals in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods  Analysis of 11 antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes in sub-Saharan Africa. World Health Organization (WHO) criteria were used to define treatment failure. All ART-naive patients aged ≥16 who started with a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based regimen and had at least 6 months of follow-up were eligible. For each patient who switched to a second-line regimen, 10 matched patients who remained on a non-failing first-line regimen were selected. Time was measured from the time of switching, from the corresponding time in matched patients, or from the time of treatment failure in patients who remained on a failing regimen. Mortality was analysed using Kaplan–Meier curves and random-effects Cox models. Results  Of 16 591 adult patients starting ART, 382 patients (2.3%) switched to a second-line regimen. Another 323 patients (1.9%) did not switch despite developing immunological or virological failure. Cumulative mortality at 1 year was 4.2% (95% CI 2.2–7.8%) in patients who switched to a second-line regimen and 11.7% (7.3%–18.5%) in patients who remained on a failing first-line regimen, compared to 2.2% (1.6–3.0%) in patients on a non-failing first-line regimen (P < 0.0001). Differences in mortality were not explained by nadir CD4 cell count, age or differential loss to follow up. Conclusions  Many patients who meet criteria for treatment failure do not switch to a second-line regimen and die. There is an urgent need to clarify the reasons why in sub-Saharan Africa many patients remain on failing first-line ART.

Gemtuzumab ozogamicin as postremission treatment in AML at 60 years of age or more: results of a multicenter phase 3 study

In older patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML), the prevention of relapse has remained one of the major therapeutic challenges, with more than 75% relapses after complete remission. The anti-CD33 immunotoxin conjugate gemtuzumab ozogamicin (GO) has shown antileukemic remission induction activity in patients with relapsed AML. Patients with AML or refractory anemia with excess blasts in first complete remission attained after intensive induction chemotherapy were randomized between 3 cycles of GO (6 mg/m(2) every 4 weeks) or no postremission therapy (control) to assess whether GO would improve outcome. The 2 treatment groups (113 patients receiving GO vs 119 control patients) were comparable with regard to age (60-78 years, median 67 years), performance status, and cytogenetics. A total of 110 of 113 received at least 1 cycle of GO, and 65 of 113 patients completed the 3 cycles. Premature discontinuation was mainly attributable to incomplete hematologic recovery or intercurrent relapse. Median time to recovery of platelets 50 x 10(9)/L and neutrophils 0.5 x 10(9)/L after GO was 14 days and 20 days. Nonhematologic toxicities were mild overall, but there was 1 toxic death caused by liver failure. There were no significant differences between both treatment groups with regard to relapse probabilities, nonrelapse mortality, overall survival, or disease-free survival (17% vs 16% at 5 years). Postremission treatment with GO in older AML patients does not provide benefits regarding any clinical end points. The HOVON-43 study is registered at The Netherlands Trial Registry (number NTR212) and at http://www.controlled-trials.com as ISRCTN77039377.

Mortality from road traffic accidents in Switzerland: longitudinal and spatial analyses

Road traffic accidents (RTA) are an important cause of premature death. We examined socio-demographic and geographical determinants of RTA mortality in Switzerland by linking 2000 census data to RTA mortality records 2000-2005 (ICD-10 codes V00-V99). Data from 5.5 million residents aged 18-94 years, 1744 study areas, and 1620 RTA deaths were analyzed, including 978 deaths (60.4%) in motor vehicle occupants, 254 (15.7%) in motorcyclists, 107 (6.6%) in cyclists, and 259 (16.0%) in pedestrians. Weibull survival models and Bayesian methods were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR), and standardized mortality ratios (SMR) across study areas. Adjusted HR comparing women with men ranged from 0.04 (95% CI 0.02-0.07) in motorcyclists to 0.43 (95% CI 0.32-0.56) in pedestrians. There was a u-shaped relationship with age in motor vehicle occupants and motorcyclists. In cyclists and pedestrians, mortality increased after age 55 years. Mortality was higher in individuals with primary education (HR 1.53; 95% CI 1.29-1.81), and higher in single (HR 1.24; 95% CI 1.05-1.46), widowed (HR 1.31; 95% CI 1.05-1.65) and divorced individuals (HR 1.62; 95% CI 1.33-1.97), compared to persons with tertiary education or married persons. The association with education was particularly strong for pedestrians (HR 1.87; 95% CI 1.20-2.91). RTA mortality increased with decreasing population density of study areas for motor vehicle occupants (test for trend p<0.0001) and motorcyclists (p=0.0021) but not for cyclists (p=0.39) or pedestrians (p=0.29). SMR standardized for socio-demographic and geographical variables ranged from 82 to 190. Prevention efforts should aim to reduce inequities across socio-demographic and educational groups, and across geographical areas, with interventions targeted at high-risk groups and areas, and different traffic users, including pedestrians.

Aircraft noise, air pollution, and mortality from myocardial infarction

Objective: Myocardial infarction has been associated with both transportation noise and air pollution. We examined residential exposure to aircraft noise and mortality from myocardial infarction, taking air pollution into account. Methods: We analyzed the Swiss National Cohort, which includes geocoded information on residence. Exposure to aircraft noise and air pollution was determined based on geospatial noise and air-pollution (PM10) models and distance to major roads. We used Cox proportional hazard models, with age as the timescale. We compared the risk of death across categories of A-weighted sound pressure levels (dB(A)) and by duration of living in exposed corridors, adjusting for PM10 levels, distance to major roads, sex, education, and socioeconomic position of the municipality. Results: We analyzed 4.6 million persons older than 30 years who were followed from near the end of 2000 through December 2005, including 15,532 deaths from myocardial infarction (ICD-10 codes I 21, I 22). Mortality increased with increasing level and duration of aircraft noise. The adjusted hazard ratio comparing ≥60 dB(A) with <45 dB(A) was 1.3 (95% confidence interval = 0.96-1.7) overall, and 1.5 (1.0-2.2) in persons who had lived at the same place for at least 15 years. None of the other endpoints (mortality from all causes, all circulatory disease, cerebrovascular disease, stroke, and lung cancer) was associated with aircraft noise. Conclusion: Aircraft noise was associated with mortality from myocardial infarction, with a dose-response relationship for level and duration of exposure. The association does not appear to be explained by exposure to particulate matter air pollution, education, or socioeconomic status of the municipality.

Incident cancer burden attributable to excess body mass index in 30 European countries

Excess adiposity is associated with increased risks of developing adult malignancies. To inform public health policy and guide further research, the incident cancer burden attributable to excess body mass index (BMI >or= 25 kg/m(2)) across 30 European countries were estimated. Population attributable risks (PARs) were calculated using European- and gender-specific risk estimates from a published meta-analysis and gender-specific mean BMI estimates from a World Health Organization Global Infobase. Country-specific numbers of new cancers were derived from Globocan2002. A ten-year lag-period between risk exposure and cancer incidence was assumed and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated in Monte Carlo simulations. In 2002, there were 2,171,351 new all cancer diagnoses in the 30 countries of Europe. Estimated PARs were 2.5% (95% CI 1.5-3.6%) in men and 4.1% (2.3-5.9%) in women. These collectively corresponded to 70,288 (95% CI 40,069-100,668) new cases. Sensitivity analyses revealed estimates were most influenced by the assumed shape of the BMI distribution in the population and cancer-specific risk estimates. In a scenario analysis of a plausible contemporary (2008) population, the estimated PARs increased to 3.2% (2.1-4.3%) and 8.6% (5.6-11.5%), respectively, in men and women. Endometrial, post-menopausal breast and colorectal cancers accounted for 65% of these cancers. This analysis quantifies the burden of incident cancers attributable to excess BMI in Europe. The estimates reported here provide a baseline for future modelling, and underline the need for research into interventions to control weight in the context of endometrial, breast and colorectal cancer.

Relationship between the logistic EuroSCORE and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score in patients implanted with the CoreValve ReValving system--a Bern-Rotterdam Study

Background Surgical risk scores, such as the logistic EuroSCORE (LES) and Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality (STS) score, are commonly used to identify high-risk or “inoperable” patients for transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). In Europe, the LES plays an important role in selecting patients for implantation with the Medtronic CoreValve System. What is less clear, however, is the role of the STS score of these patients and the relationship between the LES and STS. Objective The purpose of this study is to examine the correlation between LES and STS scores and their performance characteristics in high-risk surgical patients implanted with the Medtronic CoreValve System. Methods All consecutive patients (n = 168) in whom a CoreValve bioprosthesis was implanted between November 2005 and June 2009 at 2 centers (Bern University Hospital, Bern, Switzerland, and Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands) were included for analysis. Patient demographics were recorded in a prospective database. Logistic EuroSCORE and STS scores were calculated on a prospective and retrospective basis, respectively. Results Observed mortality was 11.1%. The mean LES was 3 times higher than the mean STS score (LES 20.2% ± 13.9% vs STS 6.7% ± 5.8%). Based on the various LES and STS cutoff values used in previous and ongoing TAVI trials, 53% of patients had an LES ≥15%, 16% had an STS ≥10%, and 40% had an LES ≥20% or STS ≥10%. Pearson correlation coefficient revealed a reasonable (moderate) linear relationship between the LES and STS scores, r = 0.58, P < .001. Although the STS score outperformed the LES, both models had suboptimal discriminatory power (c-statistic, 0.49 for LES and 0.69 for STS) and calibration. Conclusions Clinical judgment and the Heart Team concept should play a key role in selecting patients for TAVI, whereas currently available surgical risk score algorithms should be used to guide clinical decision making.

Mortality and safety of catheter ablation for antiarrhythmic drug-refractory ventricular tachycardia in elderly patients with coronary artery disease

As the population ages, recurrent ventricular tachycardia (VT) is increasingly encountered in elderly patients with ischemic heart disease. Radiofrequency catheter ablation is useful for reducing VT therapy in patients with an implantable defibrillator. The utility of radiofrequency catheter ablation in the elderly is not well defined.

Risk factors of mortality in different age groups after thoracic endovascular aortic repair

The aim of this study was to determine risk factors for mortality in different age groups after thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR).

All cause and disease specific mortality in patients with knee or hip osteoarthritis: population based cohort study

Objective To examine all cause and disease specific mortality in patients with osteoarthritis of the knee or hip. Design Population based cohort study. Setting General practices in the southwest of England. Participants 1163 patients aged 35 years or over with symptoms and radiological confirmation of osteoarthritis of the knee or hip. Main outcome measures Age and sex standardised mortality ratios and multivariable hazard ratios of death after a median of 14 years’ follow-up. Results Patients with osteoarthritis had excess all cause mortality compared with the general population (standardised mortality ratio 1.55, 95% confidence interval 1.41 to 1.70). Excess mortality was observed for all disease specific causes of death but was particularly pronounced for cardiovascular (standardised mortality ratio 1.71, 1.49 to 1.98) and dementia associated mortality (1.99, 1.22 to 3.25). Mortality increased with increasing age (P for trend <0.001), male sex (adjusted hazard ratio 1.59, 1.30 to 1.96), self reported history of diabetes (1.95, 1.31 to 2.90), cancer (2.28, 1.50 to 3.47), cardiovascular disease (1.38, 1.12 to 1.71), and walking disability (1.48, 1.17 to 1.86). However, little evidence existed for increased mortality associated with previous joint replacement, obesity, depression, chronic inflammatory disease, eye disease, or presence of pain at baseline. The more severe the walking disability, the higher was the risk of death (P for trend <0.001). Conclusion Patients with osteoarthritis are at higher risk of death compared with the general population. History of diabetes, cancer, or cardiovascular disease and the presence of walking disability are major risk factors. Management of patients with osteoarthritis and walking disability should focus on effective treatment of cardiovascular risk factors and comorbidities, as well as on increasing physical activity.

Intracranial Hemorrhage, Outcome, and Mortality After Intra-Arterial Therapy for Acute Ischemic Stroke in Patients Under Oral Anticoagulants

Use of intravenous tissue-type plasminogen activator (IV tPA) for acute ischemic stroke is restricted to patients with an international normalized ratio (INR) less than 1.7. However, a recent study showed increased risk of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage after IV tPA use in patients with oral anticoagulants (OAC) even with an INR less than 1.7. The present study assessed the risk of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage, clinical outcome, and mortality after intra-arterial therapy (IAT) in patients with and without previous use of OAC.

Predictors of in-hospital mortality in elderly patients with acute venous thrombo-embolism: the SWIss Venous ThromboEmbolism Registry (SWIVTER)

Although acute venous thrombo-embolism (VTE) often afflicts patients with advanced age, the predictors of in-hospital mortality for elderly VTE patients are unknown.