岷江上游景观可持续管理决策预案研究

岷江上游地区是我国一个重要的大尺度、复合型生态过渡带，也是一个生态系统脆弱区和敏感区，它不但影响当地和岷江下游的农业生产、生活用水和生态环境，而且影响长江上游地区生态环境改善，在长江上游生态安全格局中占有重要地位。近几十年来，在强烈的自然变化与人类活动干扰下，该区域景观发生了巨大变化，综合研究影响景观变化的自然、社会因子，制定以生态系统可持续为目标的景观管理决策，从而为改善区域生态环境，构建生态安全格局具有重要的科学意义和现实需求。本论文通过对岷江上游农、林、草复合景观诸多因子的研究，通过NetWaver和CDP（Criterium DecisionPlus）平台，分别建立基于模糊逻辑的景观评价知识库和基于多目标决策的景观管理决策模型，实现了岷江上游3种不同目标的景观管理决策预案。本论文取得了如下结论： (1). 景观格局分析表明，岷江上游景观以草地为基质，森林以及其他景观类型作为斑块镶嵌其中，草地类型影响到整个景观格局的生态过程，包括物质的传输与能量的流动。 (2). 通过建立人类活动强度这一可定量化测度的指标，分析了研究区森林、草地、耕地三种主要景观类型的格局变化，结果显示，人类活动视为信息熵输入，其强度大小对景观类型所起的作用不同，正确引导和控制一定范围、一定强度的人类活动可以实现景观的恢复。 (3). 基于NetWeaver系统，设计景观评价模糊知识库，对研究区进行了景观综合评价，整个流域除了四个子流域支持程度为低或者非常低外，其余子流域支持程度较好，景观管理的可行性和有效性水平较高。评价的结果为景观管理预案的设计提供了重要的数据支持。 (4). 综合研究区社会、经济和生态发展三个子系统，通过层次分析法，建立三层指标体系对研究区可持续能力进行评价。结果表明，岷江上游可持续发展能力综合评价值为0.22（理想值为1），反映出景观可持续能力差，实施区域生态系统管理，制订可持续管理预案具有重要性和紧迫性。 (5). 通过CDP（Criterium DecisionPlus）平台，综合所有对景观管理有潜在影响的因素，构建景观管理的决策模型，设计了三个基于不同管理目标的决策预案；并对所设计的管理预案进行了模型不确定性分析、灵敏度分析和因子贡献量分析，验证了预案模型的鲁棒性（robustness）；最后，结合生态系统管理系统EMDS（Ecosystem Management Decision System）和ARC/GIS的环境实现预案空间表达，并对决策结果进行了分析与讨论。论文的研究结果是研究区实施景观管理规划的关键性参考依据。

不同森林管理预案下友好林业局森林景观的动态变化

Knowledge about cumulative effects of forest management alternatives on forest landscape is required to make forest management decision. In this paper,a spatially explicit landscape model,LANDIS,was applied to simulate forest landscape changes in 200 years under four management alternatives (no cutting,clearcutting,selective cutting I and II) in Youhao Forestry Bureau located in Small Khingan Mountains. APACK was used to calculate distribution area of the representative species and species age cohort for six species. The results showed:1) timber harvest decreased area percentage of representative conifer species,Pinus koraiensis,Picea koraiensis and Picea jezoensis,Larix gmelinii to some extent compared to no cutting. The most influencing cutting mode for the area percentage of Tilia amurensis and Quercus mongolica was selective cutting II,followed by selective cutting I and clearcutting. To the contrast,the change of area percentage of Betula phatyphylla was contrary to the management alternatives; 2) As to species age cohort composition,timber harvest significantly changed age structure,that is,it decreased over-matured age cohort of representative species,and increased seedling and middle-age cohort (B. phatyphylla was not included,because its area percentage of over-mature age cohort was the highest under clearcutting than other three scenarios).

论自然保护与资源开发的策略

The conservation of species requires preservation of natural habitats,where the integrity of natural habitats has been severely disturbed and species goes extinct. All natural habitats are continuing to decline both inside and outside of reserves. Habitat change is partly a natural process (e.g., succession), but human activities have accelerated the process so that natural rate of renewal is insufficient to maintain natural habitats. This paper provided concept, methods of habitat renewal, habitat mitigation and their implication to protection and exploitation of natural resource. We argue that our only resourse, in light of these scenarios, is to adopt a new conservation strategy that considers the importance of habitat renewal and habitat mitigation in addition to habitat preservation. Accordingly, in our management decision, we must not only choose the size of area to preserve ,but also the size of area to balance habitat loss with habitat renewal or habitat mitigation. Finally, we explored the application of habitat renewal and habitat mitigation in regional sustainable development of Liaohe Delta wetland.

岷江上游农林复合景观管理优先度评价

结合前期研究共辨识出10项景观管理影响因子,依据其作用的性质和特点,将其分为4大类参数,通过NetWeaver模型构建了基于模糊逻辑的优先度评价知识库,在EMDS(Ecosystem Management Decision Support system)和ARCGIS9.x环境下,对4类景观管理影响因子的优先度进行了评价。结果显示:1)可行性因子综合优先度评价结果为除ws3、ws6、ws8和ws9 4个子流域的优先度为低外,其余6个子流域优先度居于中等优先水平;2)有效性因子优先度综合评价结果,ws1、ws9和ws10 3个子流域优先度为强,ws8优先度最低,其余子流域为中等优先;3)景观综合结果除ws1~ws33个子流域属于强外,其余子流域优先度为低;4)所有影响因子的综合结果为ws8子流域优先度最低,其余部分优先度居于中等。

CE环境下面向产品竞争力设计与经营决策集成系统研究

从提升产品市场竞争力的角度,提出了面向产品竞争力设计和经营决策的理念,建立了有关的结构模型和框架模型。在此基础上,进一步提出了并行工程环境下实现基于产品开发周期的面向产品竞争力设计与经营决策一体化的设想;研究了面向产品竞争力设计与经营决策集成系统的特征、结构和功能。最后以汽车车身为例对并行工程环境下的车身设计与经营决策集成系统进行了应用研究。

人口统计信息空间可视化系统研究

Population research is a front area concerned by domestic and overseas, especially its researches on its spatial visualization and its geo-visualization system design, which provides a sound base for understanding and analysis of the regional difference in population distribution and its spatial rules. With the development of GIS, the theory of geo-visualization more and more plays an important role in many research fields, especially in population information visualization, and has been made the big achievements recently. Nevertheless, the current research is less attention paid to the system design for statistical-geo visualization for population information. This paper tries to explore the design theories and methodologies for statistical-geo-visualization system for population information. The researches are mainly focused on the framework, the methodologies and techniques for the system design and construction. The purpose of the research is developed a platform for population atlas by the integration of the former owned copy software of the research group in statistical mapping system. As a modern tool, the system will provide a spatial visual environment for user to analyze the characteristics of population distribution and differentiate the interrelations of the population components. Firstly, the paper discusses the essentiality of geo-visualization for population information and brings forward the key issue in statistical-geo visualization system design based on the analysis of inland and international trends. Secondly, the geo-visualization system for population design, including its structure, functionality, module, user interface design, is studied based on the concepts of theory and technology of geo-visualization. The system design is proposed and further divided into three parts: support layer, technical layer, user layer. The support layer is a basic operation module and main part of the system. The technical layer is a core part of the system, supported by database and function modules. The database module mainly include the integrated population database (comprises spatial data, attribute data and geographical features information), the cartographic symbol library, the color library, the statistical analysis model. The function module of the system consists of thematic map maker component, statistical graph maker component, database management component and statistical analysis component. The user layer is an integrated platform, which provides the functions to design and implement a visual interface for user to query, analysis and management the statistic data and the electronic map. Based on the above, China's E-atlas for population was designed and developed by the integration of the national fifth census data with 1:400 million scaled spatial data. The atlas illustrates the actual development level of the population nowadays in China by about 200 thematic maps relating with 10 map categories(environment, population distribution, sex and age, immigration, nation, family and marriage, birth, education, employment, house). As a scientific reference tool, China's E-atlas for population has already received the high evaluation after published in early 2005. Finally, the paper makes the deep analysis of the sex ratio in China, to show how to use the functions of the system to analyze the specific population problem and how to make the data mining. The analysis results showed that: 1. The sex ratio has been increased in many regions after fourth census in 1990 except the cities in the east region, and the high sex ratio is highly located in hilly and low mountain areas where with the high illiteracy rate and the high poor rate; 2. The statistical-geo visualization system is a powerful tool to handle population information, which can be used to reflect the regional differences and the regional variations of population in China and indicate the interrelations of the population with other environment factors. Although the author tries to bring up a integrate design frame of the statistical-geo visualization system, there are still many problems needed to be resolved with the development of geo-visualization studies.

Semi-Supervised OWA Aggregation for Link-Based Similarity Evaluation and Alias Detection

T.Boongoen and Q. Shen. Semi-Supervised OWA Aggregation for Link-Based Similarity Evaluation and Alias Detection. Proceedings of the 18th International Conference on Fuzzy Systems (FUZZ-IEEE'09), pp. 288-293, 2009. Sponsorship: EPSRC

Statistic Rate Monotonic Scheduling

In this paper we present Statistical Rate Monotonic Scheduling (SRMS), a generalization of the classical RMS results of Liu and Layland that allows scheduling periodic tasks with highly variable execution times and statistical QoS requirements. Similar to RMS, SRMS has two components: a feasibility test and a scheduling algorithm. The feasibility test for SRMS ensures that using SRMS' scheduling algorithms, it is possible for a given periodic task set to share a given resource (e.g. a processor, communication medium, switching device, etc.) in such a way that such sharing does not result in the violation of any of the periodic tasks QoS constraints. The SRMS scheduling algorithm incorporates a number of unique features. First, it allows for fixed priority scheduling that keeps the tasks' value (or importance) independent of their periods. Second, it allows for job admission control, which allows the rejection of jobs that are not guaranteed to finish by their deadlines as soon as they are released, thus enabling the system to take necessary compensating actions. Also, admission control allows the preservation of resources since no time is spent on jobs that will miss their deadlines anyway. Third, SRMS integrates reservation-based and best-effort resource scheduling seamlessly. Reservation-based scheduling ensures the delivery of the minimal requested QoS; best-effort scheduling ensures that unused, reserved bandwidth is not wasted, but rather used to improve QoS further. Fourth, SRMS allows a system to deal gracefully with overload conditions by ensuring a fair deterioration in QoS across all tasks---as opposed to penalizing tasks with longer periods, for example. Finally, SRMS has the added advantage that its schedulability test is simple and its scheduling algorithm has a constant overhead in the sense that the complexity of the scheduler is not dependent on the number of the tasks in the system. We have evaluated SRMS against a number of alternative scheduling algorithms suggested in the literature (e.g. RMS and slack stealing), as well as refinements thereof, which we describe in this paper. Consistently throughout our experiments, SRMS provided the best performance. In addition, to evaluate the optimality of SRMS, we have compared it to an inefficient, yet optimal scheduler for task sets with harmonic periods.

A grey literature review of the Cultural Olympiad

This article considers the development of the UK Cultural Olympiad supporting London's successful bid to stage the Olympic Games in 2012. It suggests that the Cultural Olympiad is a complex event itself and needs to be better understood if any impacts are to be felt in a meaningful sense. The event is thus considered through review of over 50 documents relating to its management, in the context of a number of identified themes: cultural development, developing institutional frameworks, social benefit, educational benefit and promotional benefit.

Evaluating machine-learning techniques for recruitment forecasting of seven North East Atlantic fish species

The effect of different factors (spawning biomass, environmental conditions) on recruitment is a subject of great importance in the management of fisheries, recovery plans and scenario exploration. In this study, recently proposed supervised classification techniques, tested by the machine-learning community, are applied to forecast the recruitment of seven fish species of North East Atlantic (anchovy, sardine, mackerel, horse mackerel, hake, blue whiting and albacore), using spawning, environmental and climatic data. In addition, the use of the probabilistic flexible naive Bayes classifier (FNBC) is proposed as modelling approach in order to reduce uncertainty for fisheries management purposes. Those improvements aim is to improve probability estimations of each possible outcome (low, medium and high recruitment) based in kernel density estimation, which is crucial for informed management decision making with high uncertainty. Finally, a comparison between goodness-of-fit and generalization power is provided, in order to assess the reliability of the final forecasting models. It is found that in most cases the proposed methodology provides useful information for management whereas the case of horse mackerel is an example of the limitations of the approach. The proposed improvements allow for a better probabilistic estimation of the different scenarios, i.e. to reduce the uncertainty in the provided forecasts.

An Innovative Approach to Evaluating Organisational Change

This paper addresses the difficult problem of how to improve the process of evaluating organisational change. Given that the data emergent from an evaluative exercise will strongly influence the subsequent strategic and operational decisions taken by organisational managers, it is critical that the evaluation approach itself is capable of delivering high quality, accurate and timely data. The aim of this paper is to examine the role of the IT-based Optionfinder Technology used in conjunction with focus groups, in generating management decision-making data, and reflecting the changes in key performance indicators in a utility organisation. The case study research evaluates the innovative integrative approach adopted by the utility organisation and concludes that the proposed approach contributes to improvements in the decision-making capability of managers.

Population dynamics of the liver fluke, Fasciola hepatica: the effect of time and spatial separation on the genetic diversity of fluke populations in the Netherlands

An evaluation of the genetic diversity within Fasciola hepatica (liver fluke) may provide an insight into its potential to respond to environmental changes, such as anthelmintic use or climate change. In this study, we determined the mitochondrial DNA haplotypes of >400 flukes from 29 individual cattle, from 2 farms in the Netherlands, as an exemplar of fasciolosis in a European context. Analysis of this dataset has provided us with a measure of the genetic variation within infrapopulations (individual hosts) and the diversity between infrapopulations within a herd of cattle. Temporal sampling from one farm allowed for the measurement of the stability of genetic variation at a single location, whilst the comparison between the two farms provided information on the variation in relation to distance and previous anthelmintic regimes. We showed that the liver fluke population in this region is predominantly linked to 2 distinct clades. Individual infrapopulations contain a leptokurtic distribution of genetically diverse flukes. The haplotypes present on a farm have been shown to change significantly over a relatively short time-period.

A new performance based method for design and maintenance of reinforced concrete structures

Best concrete research paper by a student - Research has shown that the cost of managing structures puts high strain on the infrastructure budget, with
estimates of over 50% of the European construction budget being dedicated to repair and maintenance. If reinforced concrete
structures are not suitably designed and adequately maintained, their service life is compromised, resulting in the full economic
value of the investment not realised. The issue is more prevalent in coastal structures as a result of combinations of aggressive
actions, such as those caused by chlorides, sulphates and cyclic freezing and thawing.
It is a common practice nowadays to ensure durability of reinforced concrete structures by specifying a concrete mix and a
nominal cover at the design stage to cater for the exposure environment. This in theory should produce the performance required
to achieve a specified service life. Although the European Standard EN 206-1 specifies variations in the exposure environment,
it does not take into account the macro and micro climates surrounding structures, which have a significant influence on their
performance and service life. Therefore, in order to construct structures which will perform satisfactorily in different exposure
environments, the following two aspects need to be developed: a performance based specification to supplement EN 206-1
which will outline the expected performance of the structure in a given environment; and a simple yet transferrable procedure
for assessing the performance of structures in service termed KPI Theory. This will allow the asset managers not only to design
structures for the intended service life, but also to take informed maintenance decisions should the performance in service fall
short of what was specified. This paper aims to discuss this further.