An entropy-based financial decision support system (e-FDSS) for project analysis in construction SMEs

Uncertainty contributes a major part in the accuracy of a decision-making process while its inconsistency is always difficult to be solved by existing decision-making tools. Entropy has been proved to be useful to evaluate the inconsistency of uncertainty among different respondents. The study demonstrates an entropy-based financial decision support system called e-FDSS. This integrated system provides decision support to evaluate attributes (funding options and multiple risks) available in projects. Fuzzy logic theory is included in the system to deal with the qualitative aspect of these options and risks. An adaptive genetic algorithm (AGA) is also employed to solve the decision algorithm in the system in order to provide optimal and consistent rates to these attributes. Seven simplified and parallel projects from a Hong Kong construction small and medium enterprise (SME) were assessed to evaluate the system. The result shows that the system calculates risk adjusted discount rates (RADR) of projects in an objective way. These rates discount project cash flow impartially. Inconsistency of uncertainty is also successfully evaluated by the use of the entropy method. Finally, the system identifies the favourable funding options that are managed by a scheme called SME Loan Guarantee Scheme (SGS). Based on these results, resource allocation could then be optimized and the best time to start a new project could also be identified throughout the overall project life cycle.

Older adults encode-but do not always use-perceptual details: intentional versus unintentional effects of detail on memory judgments

Investigations of memory deficits in older individuals have concentrated on their increased likelihood of forgetting events or details of events that were actually encountered (errors of omission). However mounting evidence demonstrates that normal cognitive aging also is associated with an increased propensity for errors of commission-shown in false alarms or false recognition. The present study examined the origins of this age difference. Older and younger adults each performed three types of memory tasks in which details of encountered items might influence performance. Although older adults showed greater false recognition of related lures on a standard (identical) old/new episodic recognition task, older and younger adults showed parallel effects of detail on repetition priming and meaning-based episodic recognition (decreased priming and decreased meaning-based recognition for different relative to same exemplars). The results suggest that the older adults encoded details but used them less effectively than the younger adults in the recognition context requiring their deliberate, controlled use.

Visualizing a logic of dependability arguments

This paper offers general guidelines for the development of effective visual languages. That is, languages for constructing diagrams that can be easily and readily interpreted and manipulated by the human reader. We use these guidelines first to examine classical AND/OR trees as a representation of logical proofs, and second to design and evaluate a visual language for representing proofs in LofA: a Logic of Dependability Arguments, for which we provide a brief motivation and overview.

Autonomous intelligent cruise control using a novel multiple-controller framework incorporating fuzzy-logic-based switching and tuning

This paper presents a novel intelligent multiple-controller framework incorporating a fuzzy-logic-based switching and tuning supervisor along with a generalised learning model (GLM) for an autonomous cruise control application. The proposed methodology combines the benefits of a conventional proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller, and a PID structure-based (simultaneous) zero and pole placement controller. The switching decision between the two nonlinear fixed structure controllers is made on the basis of the required performance measure using a fuzzy-logic-based supervisor, operating at the highest level of the system. The supervisor is also employed to adaptively tune the parameters of the multiple controllers in order to achieve the desired closed-loop system performance. The intelligent multiple-controller framework is applied to the autonomous cruise control problem in order to maintain a desired vehicle speed by controlling the throttle plate angle in an electronic throttle control (ETC) system. Sample simulation results using a validated nonlinear vehicle model are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the multiple-controller with respect to adaptively tracking the desired vehicle speed changes and achieving the desired speed of response, whilst penalising excessive control action. Crown Copyright (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The demand for a healthy diet: estimating the almost ideal demand system with infrequency of purchase

A Bayesian method of estimating multivariate sample selection models is introduced and applied to the estimation of a demand system for food in the UK to account for censoring arising from infrequency of purchase. We show how it is possible to impose identifying restrictions on the sample selection equations and that, unlike a maximum likelihood framework, the imposition of adding up at both latent and observed levels is straightforward. Our results emphasise the role played by low incomes and socio-economic circumstances in leading to poor diets and also indicate that the presence of children in a household has a negative impact on dietary quality.

Electronic transitions and bonding properties in a series of five-coordinate “16-electron” complexes [Mn(CO)3(L2)]− (L2=chelating redox-active π-donor ligand)

In this article we present for the first time accurate density functional theory (DFT) and time-dependent (TD) DFT data for a series of electronically unsaturated five-coordinate complexes [Mn(CO)(3)(L-2)](-), where L-2 stands for a chelating strong pi-donor ligand represented by catecholate, dithiolate, amidothiolate, reduced alpha-diimine (1,4-dialkyl-1,4-diazabutadiene (R-DAB), 2,2'-bipyridine) and reduced 2,2'-biphosphinine types. The single-crystal X-ray structure of the unusual compound [Na(BPY)][Mn(CO)(3)(BPY)]center dot Et2O and the electronic absorption spectrum of the anion [Mn(CO)(3)(BPY)](-) are new in the literature. The nature of the bidentate ligand determines the bonding in the complexes, which varies between two limiting forms: from completely pi-delocalized diamagnetic {(CO)(3)Mn-L-2}(-) for L-2 = alpha-diimine or biphosphinine, to largely valence-trapped {(CO)(3)Mn-1-L-2(2-)}(-) for L-2(2-) = catecholate, where the formal oxidation states of Mn and L-2 can be assigned. The variable degree of the pi-delocalization in the Mn(L-2) chelate ring is indicated by experimental resonance Raman spectra of [Mn(CO)(3)(L-2)](-) (L-2=3,5-di-tBu-catecholate and iPr-DAB), where accurate assignments of the diagnostically important Raman bands have been aided by vibrational analysis. The L-2 = catecholate type of complexes is known to react with Lewis bases (CO substitution, formation of six-coordinate adducts) while the strongly pi-delocalized complexes are inert. The five-coordinate complexes adopt usually a distorted square pyramidal geometry in the solid state, even though transitions to a trigonal bipyramid are also not rare. The experimental structural data and the corresponding DFT-computed values of bond lengths and angles are in a very good agreement. TD-DFT calculations of electronic absorption spectra of the studied Mn complexes and the strongly pi-delocalized reference compound [Fe(CO)(3)(Me-DAB)] have reproduced qualitatively well the experimental spectra. Analyses of the computed electronic transitions in the visible spectroscopic region show that the lowest-energy absorption band always contains a dominant (in some cases almost exclusive) contribution from a pi(HOMO) -> pi*(LUMO) transition within the MnL2 metallacycle. The character of this optical excitation depends strongly on the composition of the frontier orbitals, varying from a partial L-2 -> Mn charge transfer (LMCT) through a fully delocalized pi(MnL2) -> pi*(MnL2) situation to a mixed (CO)Mn -> L-2 charge transfer (LLCT/MLCT). The latter character is most apparent in the case of the reference complex [Fe(CO)(3)(Me-DAB)]. The higher-lying, usually strongly mixed electronic transitions in the visible absorption region originate in the three lower-lying occupied orbitals, HOMO - 1 to HOMO - 3, with significant metal-d contributions. Assignment of these optical excitations to electronic transitions of a specific type is difficult. A partial LLCT/MLCT character is encountered most frequently. The electronic absorption spectra become more complex when the chelating ligand L-2, such as 2,2'-bipyridine, features two or more closely spaced low-lying empty pi* orbitals.

The implications of service-dominant logic and integrated solutions on the sales function

This study explores the implications of an organization moving toward service-dominant logic (S-D logic) on the sales function. Driven by its customers’ needs, a service orientation by its nature requires personal interaction and sales personnel are in an ideal position to develop offerings with the customer. However, the development of S-D logic may require sales staff to develop additional skills. Employing a single case study, the study identified that sales personnel are quick to appreciate the advantages of S-D logic for customer satisfaction and six specific skills were highlighted and explored. Further, three propositions were identified: in an organization adopting S-D logic, the sales process needs to elicit needs at both embedded-value and value-in-use levels. In addition, the sales process needs to coproduce not just goods and service attributes but also attributes of the customer’s usage processes. Further, the sales process needs to coproduce not just goods and service attributes but also attributes of the customer’s usage processes.

‘Once a miner, always a miner’: Poverty and livelihood diversification in Akwatia, Ghana

This paper offers an alternative viewpoint on why people choose to engage in artisanal mining – the low tech mineral extraction and processing of mainly precious metals and stones – for extended periods in sub-Saharan Africa. Drawing upon experiences from Akwatia, Ghana’s epicentre of diamond production since the mid-1920s, the analysis challenges the commonly-held view that the region’s people are drawn to artisanal mining solely because of a desire ‘to get rich quick’. A combination of events, including the recent closure of Ghana Consolidated Diamonds Ltd’s industrial-scale operation and decreased foreign investment in the country’s diamond industry over concerns of it potentially harbouring ‘conflict’ stones from neighbouring Coˆte D’Ivoire, has had a debilitating economic impact on Akwatia. In an attempt to alleviate their hardships, many of the town’s so-called ‘lifetime’ diamond miners have managed to secure employment in neighbouring artisanal gold mining camps. But their decision has been condemned by many of the country’s policymakers and traditional leaders, who see it solely as a move to secure ‘fast money’. It is argued here, however, that these people pursue work in surrounding artisanal gold mining communities mainly because of poverty, and that their decision has more to do with a desire to immerse in activities with which they are familiar, that offer stable employment and consistent salaries, and provide immediate debt relief. Misdiagnosis of cases such as Akwatia underscores how unfamiliar policymakers and donors are with the dynamics of ASM in sub-Saharan Africa.

Adaptive modelling, estimation and fusion from data: a neurofuzzy approach

In a world of almost permanent and rapidly increasing electronic data availability, techniques of filtering, compressing, and interpreting this data to transform it into valuable and easily comprehensible information is of utmost importance. One key topic in this area is the capability to deduce future system behavior from a given data input. This book brings together for the first time the complete theory of data-based neurofuzzy modelling and the linguistic attributes of fuzzy logic in a single cohesive mathematical framework. After introducing the basic theory of data-based modelling, new concepts including extended additive and multiplicative submodels are developed and their extensions to state estimation and data fusion are derived. All these algorithms are illustrated with benchmark and real-life examples to demonstrate their efficiency. Chris Harris and his group have carried out pioneering work which has tied together the fields of neural networks and linguistic rule-based algortihms. This book is aimed at researchers and scientists in time series modeling, empirical data modeling, knowledge discovery, data mining, and data fusion.

Inter-relationships between small, dense low-density lipoprotein (LDL), plasma triacylglycerol and LDL apoprotein B in an atherogenic lipoprotein phenotype in free-living subjects

A predominance of small, dense low-density lipoprotein (LDL) is a major component of an atherogenic lipoprotein phenotype, and a common, but modifiable, source of increased risk for coronary heart disease in the free-living population. While much of the atherogenicity of small, dense LDL is known to arise from its structural properties, the extent to which an increase in the number of small, dense LDL particles (hyper-apoprotein B) contributes to this risk of coronary heart disease is currently unknown. This study reports a method for the recruitment of free-living individuals with an atherogenic lipoprotein phenotype for a fish-oil intervention trial, and critically evaluates the relationship between LDL particle number and the predominance of small, dense LDL. In this group, volunteers were selected through local general practices on the basis of a moderately raised plasma triacylglycerol (triglyceride) level (>1.5 mmol/l) and a low concentration of high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol (<1.1 mmol/l). The screening of LDL subclasses revealed a predominance of small, dense LDL (LDL subclass pattern B) in 62% of the cohort. As expected, subjects with LDL subclass pattern B were characterized by higher plasma triacylglycerol and lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (<1.1 mmol/l) levels and, less predictably, by lower LDL cholesterol and apoprotein B levels (P<0.05; LDL subclass A compared with subclass B). While hyper-apoprotein B was detected in only five subjects, the relative percentage of small, dense LDL-III in subjects with subclass B showed an inverse relationship with LDL apoprotein B (r=-0.57; P<0.001), identifying a subset of individuals with plasma triacylglycerol above 2.5 mmol/l and a low concentration of LDL almost exclusively in a small and dense form. These findings indicate that a predominance of small, dense LDL and hyper-apoprotein B do not always co-exist in free-living groups. Moreover, if coronary risk increases with increasing LDL particle number, these results imply that the risk arising from a predominance of small, dense LDL may actually be reduced in certain cases when plasma triacylglycerol exceeds 2.5 mmol/l.

Output envelope adjustment for an environmental fuzzy logic controller

A two-level fuzzy logic controller for use in air-conditioning systems is outlined in this paper. At the first level a simplified controller is produced from expert knowledge and envelope adjustment is introduced, while the second level provides a means for adapting this controller to different working spaces. The mechanism for adaption is easily implemented and can be used in real time. A series of simulations is presented to illustrate the proposed schema.

Quasi-decoupled fuzzy logic controller

The authors describe the design of a fuzzy logic controller for the control of a planar two-link manipulator. The plant is quasi-decoupled with respect to gravity. Complete decoupling is not achieved due to the nonoptimal nature of the expert rules. The performance of the fuzzy controller is compared to that of the critically damped computed torque controller. Results are presented complete with robustness tests.