Forecasting invasions: resource use by mussels informs invasion patterns along the South African coast

Invasive species are often more able to rapidly and efficiently utilise resources than natives, and comparing per capita resource use at different resource densities among invaders and trophically analogous natives could allow for reliable predictions of invasiveness. In South Africa, invasion by the Mediterranean mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis has transformed wave-exposed shores, negatively affecting native mussel species. Currently, South Africa is experiencing a second mussel invasion with the recent detection of the South American Semimytilus algosus. We tested per capita uptake of an algal resource by invading M. galloprovincialis, S. algosus, and the native Aulacomya atra at different algal concentrations and temperatures, representing the west and south coasts of South Africa, to examine whether their per capita resource use could be a predictor of their spread and subsequent invasiveness. Regardless of temperature, M. galloprovincialis was the most efficient consumer, significantly reducing algal cells compared to the other species when the resource was presented in both low and high starting densities. Furthermore, these findings aligned with a greater biomass of M. galloprovincialis on the shore in comparison with the other species. Resource use by the new invader S. algosus was dependent on the density of resource and, although this species was efficient at low algal concentrations at cooler temperatures, this pattern broke down at higher algal densities. This was once more reflected in lower biomass in surveys of this species along the cool west coast. We therefore forecast that S. algosus will be become established along the south coast; however, we also predict that M. galloprovincialis will maintain dominance on these shores.

Historical Justice, Nationhood and African Americans

The intelligibility of historical justice is linked to matters of agency and causation. This article presents an account of historical justice limited to transgenerational collective agents which is immune to the agency and causation problems affecting traditional theories of diachronic justice. The novel theory is applied to the case of African Americans, to whom no reparations for past wrongs have been made up to now. When conceived as a transgenerational collective agent – i.e. as a nation–, the African Americans are shown to be owed reparations by the American polity. These reparations are deemed necessary to the goal of reconciliation and to the establishment of relations of mutual respect, which are construed as preconditions to effective distributive justice, here and now.

African easterly wave variability and its relationship to Atlantic tropical cyclone activity

Automatic tracking of vorticity centers in European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses has been used to develop a 20-yr climatology of African easterly wave activity. The tracking statistics at 600 and 850 mb confirm the complicated easterly wave structures present over the African continent. The rainy zone equatorward of 15 degreesN is dominated by 600-mb activity, and the much drier Saharan region poleward of 15 degreesN is more dominated by 850-mb activity. Over the Atlantic Ocean there is just one storm track with the 600- and 850-mb wave activity collocated. Based on growth/decay and genesis statistics, it appears that the 850-mb waves poleward of 15 degreesN over land generally do not get involved with the equatorward storm track over the ocean. Instead, there appears to be significant development of 850-mb activity at the West African coast in the rainy zone around (10 degreesN, 10 degreesW), which, it is proposed, is associated with latent heat release. Based on the tracking statistics, it has been shown that there is marked interannual variability in African easterly wave (AEW) activity. It is especially marked at the 850-mb level at the West African coast between about 10 degrees and 15 degreesN, where the coefficient of variation is 0.29. For the period between 1985 and 1998, a notable positive correlation is seen between this AEW activity and Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. This correlation is particularly strong for the postreanalysis period between 1994 and 1998. This result suggests that Atlantic tropical cyclone activity may be influenced by the number of AEWs leaving the West African coast, which have significant low-level amplitudes, and not simply by the total number of AEWs.

West African storm tracks and their relationship to Atlantic tropical cyclones

The automatic tracking technique used by Thorncroft and Hodges (2001) has been used to identify coherent vorticity structures at 850hPa over West Africa and the tropical Atlantic in the ECMWF 40-year reanalysis. The presence of two dominant source regions, north and south of 15ºN over West Africa, for storm tracks over the Atlantic was confirmed. Results show that the southern storm track provides most of the storms that reach the main development region where most tropical cyclones develop. There exists marked seasonal variability in location and intensity of the storms leaving the West African coast, which may influence the likelihood of downstream intensification and longevity. There exists considerable year-to-year variability in the number of West African storm tracks, both in numbers over the land and continuing out over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. While the low-frequency variability is well correlated with Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, West African rainfall and SSTs, the interannual variability is found to be uncorrelated with these. In contrast, variance of the 2-6-day-filtered meridional wind, which provides a synoptic-scale measure of African Easterly Wave activity, shows a significant, positive correlation with tropical cyclone activity at interannual timescales.

Modeled and observed atmospheric radiation balance during the West African dry season: role of mineral dust, biomass burning aerosol, and surface albedo

The global radiation balance of the atmosphere is still poorly observed, particularly at the surface. We investigate the observed radiation balance at (1) the surface using the ARM Mobile Facility in Niamey, Niger, and (2) the top of the atmosphere (TOA) over West Africa using data from the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) instrument on board Meteosat-8. Observed radiative fluxes are compared with predictions from the global numerical weather prediction (NWP) version of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM). The evaluation points to major shortcomings in the NWP model's radiative fluxes during the dry season (December 2005 to April 2006) arising from (1) a lack of absorbing aerosol in the model (mineral dust and biomass burning aerosol) and (2) a poor specification of the surface albedo. A case study of the major Saharan dust outbreak of 6–12 March 2006 is used to evaluate a parameterization of mineral dust for use in the NWP models. The model shows good predictability of the large-scale flow out to 4–5 days with the dust parameterization providing reasonable dust uplift, spatial distribution, and temporal evolution for this strongly forced dust event. The direct radiative impact of the dust reduces net downward shortwave (SW) flux at the surface (TOA) by a maximum of 200 W m−2 (150 W m−2), with a SW heating of the atmospheric column. The impacts of dust on terrestrial radiation are smaller. Comparisons of TOA (surface) radiation balance with GERB (ARM) show the “dusty” forecasts reduce biases in the radiative fluxes and improve surface temperatures and vertical thermodynamic structure.

African climate change: Taking the shorter route

Numerous factors are associated with poverty and underdevelopment in Africa, including climate variability. Rainfall, and climate more generally, are implicated directly in the United Nations “Millennium Development Goals” to eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, and reduce child mortality and incidence of diseases such as malaria by the target date of 2015. But, Africa is not currently on target to meet these goals. We pose a number of questions from a climate science perspective aimed at understanding this background: Is there a common origin to factors that currently constrain climate science? Why is it that in a continent where human activity is so closely linked to interannual rainfall variability has climate science received little of the benefit that saw commercialization driving meteorology in the developed world? What might be suggested as an effective way for the continent to approach future climate variability and change? We make the case that a route to addressing the challenges of climate change in Africa rests with the improved management of climate variability. We start by discussing the constraints on climate science and how they might be overcome. We explain why the optimal management of activities directly influenced by interannual climate variability (which include the development of scientific capacity) has the potential to serve as a forerunner to engagement in the wider issue of climate change. We show this both from the perspective of the climate system and the institutions that engage with climate issues. We end with a thought experiment that tests the benefits of linking climate variability and climate change in the setting of smallholder farmers in Limpopo Province, South Africa.

The vertical cloud structure of the West African monsoon: a 4 year climatology using CloudSat and CALIPSO

The West African summer monsoon (WAM) is an important driver of the global climate and locally provides most of the annual rainfall. A solid climatological knowledge of the complex vertical cloud structure is invaluable to forecasters and modelers to improve the understanding of the WAM. In this paper, 4 years of data from the CloudSat profiling radar and CALIPSO are used to create a composite zonal mean vertical cloud and precipitation structure for the WAM. For the first time, the near-coincident vertical radar and lidar profiles allow for the identification of individual cloud types from optically thin cirrus and shallow cumulus to congestus and deep convection. A clear diurnal signal in zonal mean cloud structure is observed for the WAM, with deep convective activity enhanced at night producing extensive anvil and cirrus, while daytime observations show more shallow cloud and congestus. A layer of altocumulus is frequently observed over the Sahara at night and day, extending southward to the coastline, and the majority of this cloud is shown to contain supercooled liquid in the top. The occurrence of deep convective systems and congestus in relation to the position of the African easterly jet is studied, but only the daytime cumulonimbus distribution indicates some influence of the jet position.

Tropical Atlantic variability modes (1979–2002). Part I: Time-evolving SST modes related to West African rainfall

This work presents a description of the 1979–2002 tropical Atlantic (TA) SST variability modes coupled to the anomalous West African (WA) rainfall during the monsoon season. The time-evolving SST patterns, with an impact on WA rainfall variability, are analyzed using a new methodology based on maximum covariance analysis. The enhanced Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) dataset, which includes measures over the ocean, gives a complete picture of the interannual WA rainfall patterns for the Sahel dry period. The leading TA SST pattern, related to the Atlantic El Niño, is coupled to anomalous precipitation over the coast of the Gulf of Guinea, which corresponds to the second WA rainfall principal component. The thermodynamics and dynamics involved in the generation, development, and damping of this mode are studied and compared with previous works. The SST mode starts at the Angola/Benguela region and is caused by alongshore wind anomalies. It then propagates westward via Rossby waves and damps because of latent heat flux anomalies and Kelvin wave eastward propagation from an off-equatorial forcing. The second SST mode includes the Mediterranean and the Atlantic Ocean, showing how the Mediterranean SST anomalies are those that are directly associated with the Sahelian rainfall. The global signature of the TA SST patterns is analyzed, adding new insights about the Pacific– Atlantic link in relation to WA rainfall during this period. Also, this global picture suggests that the Mediterranean SST anomalies are a fingerprint of large-scale forcing. This work updates the results given by other authors, whose studies are based on different datasets dating back to the 1950s, including both the wet and the dry Sahel periods.

The 30-year TAMSAT African rainfall climatology and time-series (TARCAT) dataset

African societies are dependent on rainfall for agricultural and other water-dependent activities, yet rainfall is extremely variable in both space and time and reoccurring water shocks, such as drought, can have considerable social and economic impacts. To help improve our knowledge of the rainfall climate, we have constructed a 30-year (1983–2012), temporally consistent rainfall dataset for Africa known as TARCAT (TAMSAT African Rainfall Climatology And Time-series) using archived Meteosat thermal infra-red (TIR) imagery, calibrated against rain gauge records collated from numerous African agencies. TARCAT has been produced at 10-day (dekad) scale at a spatial resolution of 0.0375°. An intercomparison of TARCAT from 1983 to 2010 with six long-term precipitation datasets indicates that TARCAT replicates the spatial and seasonal rainfall patterns and interannual variability well, with correlation coefficients of 0.85 and 0.70 with the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) gridded-gauge analyses respectively in the interannual variability of the Africa-wide mean monthly rainfall. The design of the algorithm for drought monitoring leads to TARCAT underestimating the Africa-wide mean annual rainfall on average by −0.37 mm day−1 (21%) compared to other datasets. As the TARCAT rainfall estimates are historically calibrated across large climatically homogeneous regions, the data can provide users with robust estimates of climate related risk, even in regions where gauge records are inconsistent in time.

Sources, sinks, and transatlantic transport of North African dust aerosol: a multimodel analysis and comparison with remote sensing data

This study evaluates model-simulated dust aerosols over North Africa and the North Atlantic from five global models that participated in the Aerosol Comparison between Observations and Models phase II model experiments. The model results are compared with satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor, dust optical depth (DOD) derived from MODIS and MISR, AOD and coarse-mode AOD (as a proxy of DOD) from ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network Sun photometer measurements, and dust vertical distributions/centroid height from Cloud Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder satellite AOD retrievals. We examine the following quantities of AOD and DOD: (1) the magnitudes over land and over ocean in our study domain, (2) the longitudinal gradient from the dust source region over North Africa to the western North Atlantic, (3) seasonal variations at different locations, and (4) the dust vertical profile shape and the AOD centroid height (altitude above or below which half of the AOD is located). The different satellite data show consistent features in most of these aspects; however, the models display large diversity in all of them, with significant differences among the models and between models and observations. By examining dust emission, removal, and mass extinction efficiency in the five models, we also find remarkable differences among the models that all contribute to the discrepancies of model-simulated dust amount and distribution. This study highlights the challenges in simulating the dust physical and optical processes, even in the best known dust environment, and stresses the need for observable quantities to constrain the model processes.

The South American Plasmodium falciparum var gene repertoire is limited, highly shared and possibly lacks several antigenic types

The Plasmodium falciparum var gene family encodes large variant antigens, which are important virulence factors, and also targets of the humoral host response. The frequently observed mild outcomes of falciparum malaria in many places of the Amazon area prompted us to ask whether a globally restricted variant (var) gene repertoire is present in currently circulating and older isolates of this area. By exhaustive analysis of var gene tags from 89 isolates and clones taken during many years from all over the Brazilian Amazon, we estimate that there are probably no more than 350-430 distinct sequence types, less than for any similar sized area studied so far. Detailed analysis of the var tags from genetically distinct clones obtained from single isolates revealed restricted and redundant repertoires suggesting either a low incidence of infective bites or restricted variant gene diversity in inoculated parasites. Additionally, we found a structuring of var gene repertoires observed as a higher pairwise typing sharing in isolates from the same microregion compared to isolates from different regions. Fine analysis of translated var tags revealed that certain Distinct Sequence Identifiers (DSIDs) were differently represented in Brazilian/South American isolates when compared to datasets from other continents. By global alignment of worldwide var DBL alpha sequences and sorting in groups with more than 76% identity, 125 clusters were formed and more than half of all genes were found in nine clusters with 50 or more sequences. While Brazilian/South American sequences were represented only in 64 groups, African sequences were found in the majority of clusters. DSID type 1 related sequences accumulated almost completely in one single cluster, indicating that limited recombination occurs in these specific var gene types. These data demonstrate the so far highest pairwise type sharing values for the var gene family in isolates from all over an entire subcontinent. The apparent lack of specific sequences types suggests that the P. falciparum transmission dynamics in the whole Amazon are probably different from any other endemic region studied and possibly interfere with the parasite`s ability to efficiently diversify its variant gene repertoires. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Structural analysis of the Itapucumi Group in the Vallemi region, northern Paraguay: Evidence of a new Brasiliano/Pan-African mobile belt

The Neoproterozoic (Ediacaran) Itapucumi Group in northern Paraguay is composed of carbonate and siliciclastic rocks, including ooid grainstones, marls, shales and sandstones, containing Cloudina fossils in the eastern region. It is almost undeformed over the Rio Apa Cratonic Block but shows a strong deformational pattern at its western edge. A detailed structural analysis of the Itapucumi Group was conducted in the Vallemi Mine, along with a regional survey in other outcrops downstream in the Paraguay River and in the San Alfredo, Cerro Paiva and Sargent Jose E. Lopez regions. In the main Vallemi quarry, the structural style is characterized by an axial-plane slaty cleavage in open to isoclinal folds, sometimes overturned, associated with N-S trending thrust faults and shear zones of E-vergence and with a low-grade chlorite zone metamorphism. The structural data presented here are compatible with the hypothesis of a newly recognized mobile belt on the western side of the Rio Apa Cratonic Block, with opposite vergence to that of the Paraguay Mobile Belt in Brazil. Both belts are related to the Late Brasiliano/Pan-African tectonic cycle with a Lower Cambrian deformation and metamorphism age. The deformation could be due to the late collision of the Amazonian Craton with the remainder of Western Gondwana or to the western active plate boundary related to the Pampean Belt. The structural and lithologic differences between the western Itapucumi Group in the Vallemi and Paraguay River region and the eastern region, near San Alfredo and Cerro Paiva, suggest that this group could be divided into two lithostratigraphic units, but more stratigraphic and geochronological analyses are required to confirm this possibility. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterization of an unidentified Sarcocystis falcatula-like parasite from the South American opossum, Didelphis albiventris from Brazil

An unidentified isolate of a Sarcocystis falcatula-like parasite was obtained from the lungs of budgerigars (Melopsittacus undulatus) fed sporocysts from a naturally-infected South American opossum, Didelphis albiventris from Brazil. Four captive budgerigars fed sporocysts from the opossum intestine died of acute sarcocystosis 8, 10, and 12 days after oral inoculation (DAI); one budgerigar was killed 12 DAI when it was lethargic. Schizonts and merozoites found in the lungs of the budgerigars reacted mildly with polyclonal S. falcatula antibody. The parasite was isolated in equine kidney cell cultures inoculated with lung tissue from a budgerigar that was killed 12 DAI. Two budgerigars inoculated subcutaneously with 100,000 culture-derived S. falcatula merozoites developed acute sarcocystosis and S. falcatula-like schizonts were found in their lungs 15 and 16 DAI. Four budgerigars kept as unfed controls in the same environment remained free of Sarcocystis infection. The parasite underwent schizogony in African green monkey kidney cells and bovine turbinate cells. Merozoites divided by endopolygeny, often leaving a residual body. Polymerase chain reaction studies using primers JNB33/JNB54 and Hinf I and Dra I digestion indicated that the isolate was not S. falcatula. Results of this study indicated that the South American opossum, D. albiventris, is a definitive host for yet another S. falcatula-like parasite.

Estimation of taurindicine hybridization of American Zebu cattle in Brazil

Our objective was to estimate Bos primigenius taurus introgression in American Zebu cattle. One hundred and four American Zebu (Nellore) cattle were submitted to mtDNA, microsatellite and satellite analysis. Twenty-three alleles were detected in microsatellite analysis, averaging 4.6 +/- 1.82/locus. Variance component comparisons of microsatellite allele sizes allowed the construction of two clusters separating taurus and indicus. No significant variation was observed when indicus and taurus mtDNA were compared. Three possible genotypes of 1711b satellite DNA were identified. All European animals showed the same restriction pattern, suggesting a Zebu-specific restriction pattern. The frequencies of B. primigenius indicus-specific microsatellite alleles and 1711b satellite DNA restriction patterns lead to an estimate of 14% taurine contribution in purebred Nellore.