Development of safety performance functions for empirical Bayes estimation of crash reduction factors

Crash reduction factors (CRFs) are used to estimate the potential number of traffic crashes expected to be prevented from investment in safety improvement projects. The method used to develop CRFs in Florida has been based on the commonly used before-and-after approach. This approach suffers from a widely recognized problem known as regression-to-the-mean (RTM). The Empirical Bayes (EB) method has been introduced as a means to addressing the RTM problem. This method requires the information from both the treatment and reference sites in order to predict the expected number of crashes had the safety improvement projects at the treatment sites not been implemented. The information from the reference sites is estimated from a safety performance function (SPF), which is a mathematical relationship that links crashes to traffic exposure. The objective of this dissertation was to develop the SPFs for different functional classes of the Florida State Highway System. Crash data from years 2001 through 2003 along with traffic and geometric data were used in the SPF model development. SPFs for both rural and urban roadway categories were developed. The modeling data used were based on one-mile segments that contain homogeneous traffic and geometric conditions within each segment. Segments involving intersections were excluded. The scatter plots of data show that the relationships between crashes and traffic exposure are nonlinear, that crashes increase with traffic exposure in an increasing rate. Four regression models, namely, Poisson (PRM), Negative Binomial (NBRM), zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), and zero-inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB), were fitted to the one-mile segment records for individual roadway categories. The best model was selected for each category based on a combination of the Likelihood Ratio test, the Vuong statistical test, and the Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). The NBRM model was found to be appropriate for only one category and the ZINB model was found to be more appropriate for six other categories. The overall results show that the Negative Binomial distribution model generally provides a better fit for the data than the Poisson distribution model. In addition, the ZINB model was found to give the best fit when the count data exhibit excess zeros and over-dispersion for most of the roadway categories. While model validation shows that most data points fall within the 95% prediction intervals of the models developed, the Pearson goodness-of-fit measure does not show statistical significance. This is expected as traffic volume is only one of the many factors contributing to the overall crash experience, and that the SPFs are to be applied in conjunction with Accident Modification Factors (AMFs) to further account for the safety impacts of major geometric features before arriving at the final crash prediction. However, with improved traffic and crash data quality, the crash prediction power of SPF models may be further improved.

Freeway travel time estimation and prediction using dynamic neural networks

Providing transportation system operators and travelers with accurate travel time information allows them to make more informed decisions, yielding benefits for individual travelers and for the entire transportation system. Most existing advanced traveler information systems (ATIS) and advanced traffic management systems (ATMS) use instantaneous travel time values estimated based on the current measurements, assuming that traffic conditions remain constant in the near future. For more effective applications, it has been proposed that ATIS and ATMS should use travel times predicted for short-term future conditions rather than instantaneous travel times measured or estimated for current conditions. ^ This dissertation research investigates short-term freeway travel time prediction using Dynamic Neural Networks (DNN) based on traffic detector data collected by radar traffic detectors installed along a freeway corridor. DNN comprises a class of neural networks that are particularly suitable for predicting variables like travel time, but has not been adequately investigated for this purpose. Before this investigation, it was necessary to identifying methods for data imputation to account for missing data usually encountered when collecting data using traffic detectors. It was also necessary to identify a method to estimate the travel time on the freeway corridor based on data collected using point traffic detectors. A new travel time estimation method referred to as the Piecewise Constant Acceleration Based (PCAB) method was developed and compared with other methods reported in the literatures. The results show that one of the simple travel time estimation methods (the average speed method) can work as well as the PCAB method, and both of them out-perform other methods. This study also compared the travel time prediction performance of three different DNN topologies with different memory setups. The results show that one DNN topology (the time-delay neural networks) out-performs the other two DNN topologies for the investigated prediction problem. This topology also performs slightly better than the simple multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network topology that has been used in a number of previous studies for travel time prediction.^

A methodological framework for modeling pavement maintenance costs for projects with performance-based contracts

Performance-based maintenance contracts differ significantly from material and method-based contracts that have been traditionally used to maintain roads. Road agencies around the world have moved towards a performance-based contract approach because it offers several advantages like cost saving, better budgeting certainty, better customer satisfaction with better road services and conditions. Payments for the maintenance of road are explicitly linked to the contractor successfully meeting certain clearly defined minimum performance indicators in these contracts. Quantitative evaluation of the cost of performance-based contracts has several difficulties due to the complexity of the pavement deterioration process. Based on a probabilistic analysis of failures of achieving multiple performance criteria over the length of the contract period, an effort has been made to develop a model that is capable of estimating the cost of these performance-based contracts. One of the essential functions of such model is to predict performance of the pavement as accurately as possible. Prediction of future degradation of pavement is done using Markov Chain Process, which requires estimating transition probabilities from previous deterioration rate for similar pavements. Transition probabilities were derived using historical pavement condition rating data, both for predicting pavement deterioration when there is no maintenance, and for predicting pavement improvement when maintenance activities are performed. A methodological framework has been developed to estimate the cost of maintaining road based on multiple performance criteria such as crack, rut and, roughness. The application of the developed model has been demonstrated via a real case study of Miami Dade Expressways (MDX) using pavement condition rating data from Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) for a typical performance-based asphalt pavement maintenance contract. Results indicated that the pavement performance model developed could predict the pavement deterioration quite accurately. Sensitivity analysis performed shows that the model is very responsive to even slight changes in pavement deterioration rate and performance constraints. It is expected that the use of this model will assist the highway agencies and contractors in arriving at a fair contract value for executing long term performance-based pavement maintenance works.

Improving resource management in virtualized data centers using application performance models

The rapid growth of virtualized data centers and cloud hosting services is making the management of physical resources such as CPU, memory, and I/O bandwidth in data center servers increasingly important. Server management now involves dealing with multiple dissimilar applications with varying Service-Level-Agreements (SLAs) and multiple resource dimensions. The multiplicity and diversity of resources and applications are rendering administrative tasks more complex and challenging. This thesis aimed to develop a framework and techniques that would help substantially reduce data center management complexity.^ We specifically addressed two crucial data center operations. First, we precisely estimated capacity requirements of client virtual machines (VMs) while renting server space in cloud environment. Second, we proposed a systematic process to efficiently allocate physical resources to hosted VMs in a data center. To realize these dual objectives, accurately capturing the effects of resource allocations on application performance is vital. The benefits of accurate application performance modeling are multifold. Cloud users can size their VMs appropriately and pay only for the resources that they need; service providers can also offer a new charging model based on the VMs performance instead of their configured sizes. As a result, clients will pay exactly for the performance they are actually experiencing; on the other hand, administrators will be able to maximize their total revenue by utilizing application performance models and SLAs. ^ This thesis made the following contributions. First, we identified resource control parameters crucial for distributing physical resources and characterizing contention for virtualized applications in a shared hosting environment. Second, we explored several modeling techniques and confirmed the suitability of two machine learning tools, Artificial Neural Network and Support Vector Machine, to accurately model the performance of virtualized applications. Moreover, we suggested and evaluated modeling optimizations necessary to improve prediction accuracy when using these modeling tools. Third, we presented an approach to optimal VM sizing by employing the performance models we created. Finally, we proposed a revenue-driven resource allocation algorithm which maximizes the SLA-generated revenue for a data center.^

Development of safety performance functions for SafetyAnalyst applications in Florida

In 2010, the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) released a safety analysis software system known as SafetyAnalyst. SafetyAnalyst implements the empirical Bayes (EB) method, which requires the use of Safety Performance Functions (SPFs). The system is equipped with a set of national default SPFs, and the software calibrates the default SPFs to represent the agency's safety performance. However, it is recommended that agencies generate agency-specific SPFs whenever possible. Many investigators support the view that the agency-specific SPFs represent the agency data better than the national default SPFs calibrated to agency data. Furthermore, it is believed that the crash trends in Florida are different from the states whose data were used to develop the national default SPFs. In this dissertation, Florida-specific SPFs were developed using the 2008 Roadway Characteristics Inventory (RCI) data and crash and traffic data from 2007-2010 for both total and fatal and injury (FI) crashes. The data were randomly divided into two sets, one for calibration (70% of the data) and another for validation (30% of the data). The negative binomial (NB) model was used to develop the Florida-specific SPFs for each of the subtypes of roadway segments, intersections and ramps, using the calibration data. Statistical goodness-of-fit tests were performed on the calibrated models, which were then validated using the validation data set. The results were compared in order to assess the transferability of the Florida-specific SPF models. The default SafetyAnalyst SPFs were calibrated to Florida data by adjusting the national default SPFs with local calibration factors. The performance of the Florida-specific SPFs and SafetyAnalyst default SPFs calibrated to Florida data were then compared using a number of methods, including visual plots and statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The plots of SPFs against the observed crash data were used to compare the prediction performance of the two models. Three goodness-of-fit tests, represented by the mean absolute deviance (MAD), the mean square prediction error (MSPE), and Freeman-Tukey R2 (R2FT), were also used for comparison in order to identify the better-fitting model. The results showed that Florida-specific SPFs yielded better prediction performance than the national default SPFs calibrated to Florida data. The performance of Florida-specific SPFs was further compared with that of the full SPFs, which include both traffic and geometric variables, in two major applications of SPFs, i.e., crash prediction and identification of high crash locations. The results showed that both SPF models yielded very similar performance in both applications. These empirical results support the use of the flow-only SPF models adopted in SafetyAnalyst, which require much less effort to develop compared to full SPFs.

The impact of a Classroom Performance System on learning gains in a biology course for science majors

This study was conducted to determine if the use of the technology known as Classroom Performance System (CPS), specifically referred to as "Clickers", improves the learning gains of students enrolled in a biology course for science majors. CPS is one of a group of developing technologies adapted for providing feedback in the classroom using a learner-centered approach. It supports and facilitates discussion among students and between them and teachers, and provides for participation by passive students. Advocates, influenced by constructivist theories, claim increased academic achievement. In science teaching, the results have been mixed, but there is some evidence of improvements in conceptual understanding. The study employed a pretest-posttest, non-equivalent groups experimental design. The sample consisted of 226 participants in six sections of a college biology course at a large community college in South Florida with two instructors trained in the use of clickers. Each instructor randomly selected their sections into CPS (treatment) and non-CPS (control) groups. All participants filled out a survey that included demographic data at the beginning of the semester. The treatment group used clicker questions throughout, with discussions as necessary, whereas the control groups answered the same questions as quizzes, similarly engaging in discussion where necessary. The learning gains were assessed on a pre/post-test basis. The average learning gains, defined as the actual gain divided by the possible gain, were slightly better in the treatment group than in the control group, but the difference was statistically non-significant. An Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) statistic with pretest scores as the covariate was conducted to test for significant differences between the treatment and control groups on the posttest. A second ANCOVA was used to determine the significance of differences between the treatment and control groups on the posttest scores, after controlling for sex, GPA, academic status, experience with clickers, and instructional style. The results indicated a small increase in learning gains but these were not statistically significant. The data did not support an increase in learning based on the use of the CPS technology. This study adds to the body of research that questions whether CPS technology merits classroom adaptation.

Toward an understanding of how individuals overcome challenges to development: A phenomenological study of an inner -city student's attitude toward academic orientation and life

The purpose of this qualitative case study was to gain an understanding of the phenomenon of academic orientation by seeking the insights into an inner-city Haitian-American middle school student's attitudes and world view toward education and life. A phenomenological approach was used in order to explore the way in which Cindy, a minority student, gives meaning to her lived-experiences in terms of her desire to meet academic expectations and her ability to overcome social adversity and/or other risk factors.^ The study attempted to answer the following two research questions: (1) What provides the focus for Cindy's (the subject's) approach to her school work and/or life? (2) What are the processes that give meaning and direction to academic orientation and life for Cindy? In-depth interviewing was the primary method of data collection. In addition, journal and sketchbook entries and school district records were used and classroom observations made.^ The nature of the study to understand lived-experience facilitated the use of the case study method and a phenomenological method of description. Data analysis was conducted by means of an adapted form of the constant comparative approach. Patterns in the data which emerged were coded and categorized according to underlying generative themes. Phenomenological reflection and analysis were used to grasp the experiential structures of Cindy's experience. The following textural themes were identified and confirmed to be essential themes to Cindy's experience: personal challenge to do her best, personal challenge to want to learn, having a sense of determination, being able to think for self, having a disposition to like self, achieving self-respect through performance, seeing a need to help others, being intrinsically motivated, being an independent learner, attending more to academic pressure and less to peer pressure, having motivational catalysts in her life, learning and support opportunities, and having a self-culture. Using Mahrer's humanistic theory of experiencing, Cindy's development was interpreted in terms of her progression through a sequence of developmental plateaus: externalized self, internalized self, and integrating and actualizing self.^ The findings of this study were that Cindy's desire to meet academic expectations is guided by a meaning construction internal frame of reference. High expectations of self in conjunction with other protective factors found in Cindy's home and school environments were also found to be linked to her educational resilience and success. Cindy's lived-experiences were also found to be related to Mahrer's theory of human development. In addition, it was concluded that "minority" students do not all fit into social categories and labels. ^

The effect of dual -language instruction on academic achievement as measured by the SAT: An evaluation of the "International Studies Program" of Miami -Dade County Public Schools

This study investigated the influence that receiving instruction in two languages, English and Spanish, had on the performance of students enrolled in the International Studies Program (delayed partial immersion model) of Miami Dade County Public Schools on a standardized test in English, the Stanford Achievement Test, eighth edition, for three of its sections, Reading Comprehension, Mathematics Computations, and Mathematics Applications.^ The performance of the selected IS program/Spanish section cohort of students (N = 55) on the SAT Reading Comprehension, Mathematics Computation, and Mathematics Application along four consecutive years was contrasted with that of a control group of comparable students selected within the same feeder pattern where the IS program is implemented (N = 21). The performance of the group was also compared to the cross-sectional achievement patterns of the school's corresponding feeder pattern, region, and district.^ The research model for the study was a variation of the "causal-comparative" or "ex post facto design" sometimes referred to as "prospective". After data were collected from MDCPS, t-tests were performed to compare IS-Spanish students SAT performance for grades 3 to 6 for years 1994 to 1997 to control group, feeder pattern, region and district norms for each year for Reading Comprehension, Mathematics Computation, and Mathematics Applications. Repeated measures ANOVA and Tukey's tests were calculated to compare the mean percentiles of the groups under study and the possible interactions of the different variables. All tests were performed at the 5% significance level.^ From the analyses of the tests it was deduced that the IS group performed significantly better than the control group for all the three measures along the four years. The IS group mean percentiles on the three measures were also significantly higher than those of the feeder pattern, region, and district. The null hypotheses were rejected and it was concluded that receiving instruction in two languages did not negatively affect the performance of IS program students on tests taken in English. It was also concluded that the particular design the IS program enhances the general performance of participant students on Standardized tests.^ The quantitative analyses were coupled with interviews from teachers and administrators of the IS program to gain additional insight about different aspects of the implementation of the program at each particular school. ^

Personality and job performance: The mediating roles of leader -member exchange quality and action control

The present investigation examined the relationships among personality (as conceptualized by the Big Five Factors), leader-member exchange (LMX) quality, action control, organizational citizenship behaviors (OCB), and overall job performance (OJP). Two mediator variables were proposed and tested in this study: LMX and Action Control. Two-hundred and seven currently employed regular elementary school classroom teachers provided data during the 2000–2001 academic school year. Teachers provided personality, LMX quality (member or subordinate perspective), action control, job tenure, and demographic data. Nine school administrators (i.e., Principals, Assistant Principals) were the source for supervisor ratings of OCB, OJP, and LMX quality (leader or supervisor perspective). In eight of the nine total schools, teachers completed questionnaires during an after-school teacher gathering; in the remaining school location questionnaires were dropped off, distributed to teachers, and re-collected two weeks later. Results indicated a significant relationship between the OCB scale and overall supervisory ratings of OJP. The relationship among the big five factors of personality and OJP did not reach statistical significance, nor did the relationships among personality and OCB. The data indicated that none of the teacher tenure variables (i.e., teacher, school, or time worked with principal tenure) moderated the personality-OCB relationship nor the personality-OJP relationship. Finally, a review of the correlations among the variables of interest precluded conducting a mediation between personality-performance by OCB, mediation of personality-OCB by action control, and mediation of personality-OCB by LMX. In conclusion, the data reveal that personality was not significantly correlated with supervisory ratings of OJP or significantly related to supervisory ratings of overall OCB. Moreover, LMX quality and action control did not mediate the relationships between Personality-OJP nor the Personality-OCB relationship. Significant relationships were found between disengagement and overall LMX quality and between Initiative and overall LMX quality (both LMX-Teacher perspectives) as well as between personality variables and both Disengagement and Initiative action control variables. Despite the limitations inherent in this study, these latter findings suggest “lessons” for teachers and school administrators alike. ^

The effects of school mobility in pre -assessment grade levels on student performance and school accountability in urban Title I schools

This study examined the effects of student mobility and educational enrollment experiences on academic achievement. The educational progress, school enrollments and transfers of inner-city elementary students were tracked over a four-year period. Student achievement was measured by criterion-referenced reading tests administered in the second semester of the third grade. It further analyzed the degree to which the switch to different basal reading textbooks interrupted the continuity of education thereby contributing to the detrimental effects of intra-district mobility. ^ Mobility histories of 2,913 third grade students were collected to evaluate the number of times each student entered or withdrew from a Miami-Dade County Public School beginning in August 2000 through March 2004, and distinguished between transfers that occurred during the academic school year and those that occurred during summer months. Data were analyzed using Pearson correlations and multiple regressions to determine if school mobility contributed to performance on the Florida Comprehensive Assessment Third Grade Reading Test (FCAT). Transferring from one school to another was found to have a significant negative impact on student test scores. Transfers within the academic school year were more detrimental than transfers that occurred during the summer months. Third grade students who transferred into schools that used the same reading textbook series were found to have significantly higher FCAT reading scores than third graders who transferred into schools that used different reading textbooks. ^ The effects of mobility rates on overall school performance were also examined. Data was collected on 124 Title I elementary schools to determine the degree to which mobility affected school accountability scores. Title I schools with high student mobility rates had significantly lower accountability scores than schools with lower student mobility rates. ^ The results of this study highlight the impact of education and housing policy and imply a need for programs and practices that promote stability in the early elementary years. ^

The relationship of immigrant status to perceptions of reading and reading literacy among young Black students: A test of the Cultural -Ecological Theory of School Performance

This study tests Ogbu and Simons' Cultural-Ecological Theory of School Performance using data from the Progress in International Reading Literacy Study of 2001 (PIRLS), a large-scale international survey and reading assessment involving fourth grade students from 35 countries, including the United States. This theory argues that Black immigrant students outperform their non-immigrant counterparts, academically, and that achievement differences are attributed to stronger educational commitment in Black immigrant families. Four hypotheses are formulated to test this theory: Black immigrant students have (a) more receptive attitudes toward reading; (b) a more positive reading self-concept; and (c) a higher level of reading literacy. Furthermore, (d) the relationship of immigrant status to reading perceptions and literacy persists after including selected predictors. These hypotheses are tested separately for girls and boys, while also examining immigrant students' generational status (i.e., foreign-born or second-generation). ^ PIRLS data from a subset of Black students (N=525) in the larger U.S. sample of 3,763 are analyzed to test the hypotheses, using analysis of variance, correlation and multiple regression techniques. Findings reveal that hypotheses a and b are not confirmed (contradicting the Cultural-Ecological Theory) and c and d are partially supported (lending partial support to the theory). Specifically, immigrant and non-immigrant students did not differ in attitudes toward reading or reading self-concept; second-generation immigrant boys outperformed both non-immigrant and foreign-born immigrant boys in reading literacy, but no differences were found among girls; and, while being second-generation immigrant had a relatively stronger relationship to reading literacy for boys, among girls, selected socio-cultural predictors, number of books in the home and length of U.S. residence, had relatively stronger relationship to reading self-concept than did immigrant status. This study, therefore, indicates that future research employing the Cultural-Ecological Theory should: (a) take gender and generational status into account (b) identify additional socio-cultural predictors of Black children's academic perceptions and performance; and (c) continue to build on this body of evidence-based knowledge to better inform educational policy and school personnel in addressing needs of all children. ^

Towards the prediction of mutations in genomic sequences

Bio-systems are inherently complex information processing systems. Furthermore, physiological complexities of biological systems limit the formation of a hypothesis in terms of behavior and the ability to test hypothesis. More importantly the identification and classification of mutation in patients are centric topics in today's cancer research. Next generation sequencing (NGS) technologies can provide genome-wide coverage at a single nucleotide resolution and at reasonable speed and cost. The unprecedented molecular characterization provided by NGS offers the potential for an individualized approach to treatment. These advances in cancer genomics have enabled scientists to interrogate cancer-specific genomic variants and compare them with the normal variants in the same patient. Analysis of this data provides a catalog of somatic variants, present in tumor genome but not in the normal tissue DNA. In this dissertation, we present a new computational framework to the problem of predicting the number of mutations on a chromosome for a certain patient, which is a fundamental problem in clinical and research fields. We begin this dissertation with the development of a framework system that is capable of utilizing published data from a longitudinal study of patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML), who's DNA from both normal as well as malignant tissues was subjected to NGS analysis at various points in time. By processing the sequencing data at the time of cancer diagnosis using the components of our framework, we tested it by predicting the genomic regions to be mutated at the time of relapse and, later, by comparing our results with the actual regions that showed mutations (discovered at relapse time). We demonstrate that this coupling of the algorithm pipeline can drastically improve the predictive abilities of searching a reliable molecular signature. Arguably, the most important result of our research is its superior performance to other methods like Radial Basis Function Network, Sequential Minimal Optimization, and Gaussian Process. In the final part of this dissertation, we present a detailed significance, stability and statistical analysis of our model. A performance comparison of the results are presented. This work clearly lays a good foundation for future research for other types of cancer.^

The relationship between selected standardized test scores and performance in advanced placement math and science exams: Analyzing the differential effectiveness of scores for course identification and placement

There is a national need to increase the STEM-related workforce. Among factors leading towards STEM careers include the number of advanced high school mathematics and science courses students complete. Florida's enrollment patterns in STEM-related Advanced Placement (AP) courses, however, reveal that only a small percentage of students enroll into these classes. Therefore, screening tools are needed to find more students for these courses, who are academically ready, yet have not been identified. The purpose of this study was to investigate the extent to which scores from a national standardized test, Preliminary Scholastic Assessment Test/ National Merit Qualifying Test (PSAT/NMSQT), in conjunction with and compared to a state-mandated standardized test, Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test (FCAT), are related to selected AP exam performance in Seminole County Public Schools. An ex post facto correlational study was conducted using 6,189 student records from the 2010 - 2012 academic years. Multiple regression analyses using simultaneous Full Model testing showed differential moderate to strong relationships between scores in eight of the nine AP courses (i.e., Biology, Environmental Science, Chemistry, Physics B, Physics C Electrical, Physics C Mechanical, Statistics, Calculus AB and BC) examined. For example, the significant unique contribution to overall variance in AP scores was a linear combination of PSAT Math (M), Critical Reading (CR) and FCAT Reading (R) for Biology and Environmental Science. Moderate relationships for Chemistry included a linear combination of PSAT M, W (Writing) and FCAT M; a combination of FCAT M and PSAT M was most significantly associated with Calculus AB performance. These findings have implications for both research and practice. FCAT scores, in conjunction with PSAT scores, can potentially be used for specific STEM-related AP courses, as part of a systematic approach towards AP course identification and placement. For courses with moderate to strong relationships, validation studies and development of expectancy tables, which estimate the probability of successful performance on these AP exams, are recommended. Also, findings established a need to examine other related research issues including, but not limited to, extensive longitudinal studies and analyses of other available or prospective standardized test scores.

Freeway Travel Time Estimation and Prediction Using Dynamic Neural Networks

Providing transportation system operators and travelers with accurate travel time information allows them to make more informed decisions, yielding benefits for individual travelers and for the entire transportation system. Most existing advanced traveler information systems (ATIS) and advanced traffic management systems (ATMS) use instantaneous travel time values estimated based on the current measurements, assuming that traffic conditions remain constant in the near future. For more effective applications, it has been proposed that ATIS and ATMS should use travel times predicted for short-term future conditions rather than instantaneous travel times measured or estimated for current conditions. This dissertation research investigates short-term freeway travel time prediction using Dynamic Neural Networks (DNN) based on traffic detector data collected by radar traffic detectors installed along a freeway corridor. DNN comprises a class of neural networks that are particularly suitable for predicting variables like travel time, but has not been adequately investigated for this purpose. Before this investigation, it was necessary to identifying methods for data imputation to account for missing data usually encountered when collecting data using traffic detectors. It was also necessary to identify a method to estimate the travel time on the freeway corridor based on data collected using point traffic detectors. A new travel time estimation method referred to as the Piecewise Constant Acceleration Based (PCAB) method was developed and compared with other methods reported in the literatures. The results show that one of the simple travel time estimation methods (the average speed method) can work as well as the PCAB method, and both of them out-perform other methods. This study also compared the travel time prediction performance of three different DNN topologies with different memory setups. The results show that one DNN topology (the time-delay neural networks) out-performs the other two DNN topologies for the investigated prediction problem. This topology also performs slightly better than the simple multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network topology that has been used in a number of previous studies for travel time prediction.

The relationship between higher education curricular variables and human flight performance in a preliminary flying training program

The ability of the United States Air Force (USAF) to sustain a high level of operational ability and readiness is dependent on the proficiency and expertise of its pilots. Recruitment, education, training, and retention of its pilot force are crucial factors in the USAF's attainment of its operational mission: defense of this nation and its allies. Failure of a student pilot during a training program does not only represent a loss of costly training expenditures to the American public, but often consists of loss of human life, aircraft, and property. This research focused on the Air Force Reserve Officer Training Corps' (AFROTC) selection method for student pilots for the light aircraft training (LATR) program. The LATR program is an intense 16 day flight training program that precedes the Air Force's undergraduate pilot training (UPT) program. The study subjects were 265 AFROTC cadets in the LATR program. A variety of independent variables from each subject's higher education curricular background as well as results of preselection tests, participation in varsity athletics, prior flying experience and gender were evaluated against subsequent performance in LATR. Performance was measured by a quantitative performance score developed by this researcher based on 28 graded training factors as well as overall pass or fail of the LATR program. Study results showed participation in university varsity athletics was very significantly and positively related to performance in the LATR program, followed by prior flying experience and to a very slight degree portions of the Air Force Officers Qualifying Test. Not significantly related to success in the LATR program were independent variables such as grade point average, scholastic aptitude test scores, academic major, gender and the AFROTC selection and ranking system.