Strategic planning of electricity systems: Integrating renewable energies

Tese de Doutoramento - Programa Doutoral em Engenharia Industrial e Sistemas (PDEIS)

Efeito da pressão antrópica sobre igarapés na Reserva Florestal Adolpho Ducke, área de floresta na Amazônia Central

Foram investigadas variáveis físico-químicas e químicas de ambientes aquáticos, em área de floresta primária de terra firme, próxima à área urbana, no município de Manaus. Os cursos de águas superficiais investigados drenam tanto área de floresta primária como urbanizada e, na região, são chamados igarapés. Dois desses igarapés têm suas nascentes na área urbana, adentram a área de floresta e lá se juntam. Ainda dentro da mesma área o igarapé resultante encontra-se com um outro que drena apenas área de floresta primária. Neste estudo foram pesquisadas as variáveis ambientais: pH, condutividade elétrica da água, os cátions (Na+, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+ e Fe2+) e material em suspensão. Foi possível observar diferenças significativas nas médias da concentração de íons hidrogênio, na condutividade elétrica e na quantidade de material em suspensão, entre os igarapés estudados. No igarapé cuja nascente encontra-se dentro da reserva, os valores médios correspondentes ao pH, condutividade elétrica e material em suspensão foram, respectivamente, 4,47; 6,44 mS cm-1 e 1,25 mg L-1; e os valores mais elevados registrados nos impactados foram 6,84, 141,50 mS cm-1 e 9,50 mg L-1. Os resultados mostram que o igarapé que drena área de floresta mantém suas características naturais por estar protegido das atividades antrópicas, e os que provêm da área urbana encontram-se impactados.

Exploração de séries temporais em processos de previsão de vendas

Dissertação de mestrado em Engenharia de Sistemas

Consumption, wealth, stock and housing returns: evidence from emerging markets

We test the predictive ability of the transitory deviations of consumption from its common trend with aggregate wealth and labour income, cay, for both future equity and housing risk premia in emerging market economies. Using quarterly data for 31 markets, our country-level evidence shows that forecasting power of cay vis-à-vis stock returns is high for Brazil, China, Colombia, Israel, Korea, Latvia and Malaysia. As for housing returns, the empirical evidence suggests that financial and housing assets are perceived as complements in the case of Chile, Russia, South Africa and Thailand, and as substitutes in Argentina, Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico and Taiwan. Using a panel econometric framework, we find that the cross-country heterogeneity observed in asset return predictability does not accrue to regional location, but can be attributed to differences in the degree of equity market development and in the level of income.

Exploração de dados para soluções de retalho em business intelligence

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia de Gestão e Sistemas de Informação

Previsão de cheias em Barcelos

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Civil

Valvuloplastia aórtica por balão como ponte para o tratamento definitivo na estenose aórtica grave

Homem de 36 anos, com quadro de estenose aórtica crítica e choque cardiogênico refratário, foi submetido a valvuloplastia aórtica por balão como procedimento de salvamento, seguindo-se compensação clínica, o que possibilitou a realização de cirurgia de troca valvar aórtica no 48º dia após esse procedimento. O acompanhamento clínico e ecocardiográfico demonstrou melhora funcional significativa até o presente, oito meses após a cirurgia. A valvuloplastia aórtica por balão constitui opção terapêutica de salvamento em pacientes com estenose aórtica grave e elevado risco cirúrgico, servindo como ponte para a cirurgia de troca aórtica ou transplante cardíaco. A cirurgia de troca aórtica deve ser considerada, mesmo em pacientes com disfunção ventricular grave, reservando-se o transplante cardíaco aos pacientes em que se supõe depressão muito acentuada e irreversível da contratilidade miocárdica.

PANDORA - Survey of Brazilian cardiologists about cholesterol reduction

OBJECTIVE: To report about a group of physicians' understanding of the recommendations of the II Brazilian Guidelines Conference on Dyslipidemias, and about the state of the art of primary and secondary prevention of atherosclerosis. METHODS: Through the use of a questionnaire on dyslipidemia, atherosclerosis prevention, and recommendations for lipid targets established by the II Brazilian Guidelines Conference on Dyslipidemias, 746 physicians, 98% cardiologists, were evaluated. RESULTS:Eighty-seven percent of the respondents stated that the treatment of dyslipidemia changes the natural history of coronary disease. Although most of the participants followed the total cholesterol recommendations (<200mg/dL for atherosclerosis prevention), only 55.8% would adopt the target of LDL-C <100 mg/dL for secondary prevention. Between 30.5 and 36.7% answered, in different questions, that the recommended level for HDL-C should be <35mg/dL. Only 32.7% would treat their patients indefinitely with lipid- lowering drugs. If the drug treatment did not reach the proposed target, only 35.5% would increase the dosage, and 29.4% would change the medication. Participants did not know the targets proposed for diabetics. CONCLUSION: Although the participating physicians valued the role played by lipids in the prevention of atherosclerosis, serious deficiencies exist in their knowledge of the recommendations given during the II Brazilian Guidelines Conference on Dyslipidemias.

Prognostic factors of the results of cardiopulmonary resuscitation in a cardiology hospital

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the early and late results of cardiopulmonary resuscitation in a cardiology hospital and to try to detect prognostic determinants of both short- and long-term survival. METHODS: A series of 557 patients who suffered cardiorespiratory arrest (CRA) at the Dante Pazzanese Cardiology Institute over a period of 5 years was analyzed to examine factors predicting successful resuscitation and long-term survival. RESULTS: Ressuscitation maneuvers were tried in 536 patients; 281 patients (52.4%) died immediately, and 164 patients (30.6%) survived for than 24 hours. The 87 patients who survived for more than 1 month after CRA were compared with nonsurvivors. Coronary disease, cardiomyopathy, and valvular disease had a better prognosis. Primary arrhythmia occurred in 73.5% of the >1-month survivor group and heart failure occurred in 12.6% of this group. In those patients in whom the initial mechanism of CRA was ventricular fibrillation, 33.3% survived for more than 1 month, but of those with ventricular asystole only 4.3% survived. None of the 10 patients with electromechanical dissociation survived. There was worse prognosis in patients included in the extreme age groups (zero to 10 years and 70 years or more). The best results occurred when the cardiac arrest took place in the catheterization laboratories. The worst results occurred in the intensive care unit and the hemodialysis room. CONCLUSION: The results in our series may serve as a helpful guide to physicians with the difficult task of deciding when not to resuscitate or when to stop resuscitation efforts.

Random walk forecast of urban water in Iran under uncertainty

There are two significant reasons for the uncertainties of water demand. On one hand, an evolving technological world is plagued with accelerated change in lifestyles and consumption patterns; and on the other hand, intensifying climate change. Therefore, with an uncertain future, what enables policymakers to define the state of water resources, which are affected by withdrawals and demands? Through a case study based on thirteen years of observation data in the Zayandeh Rud River basin in Isfahan province located in Iran, this paper forecasts a wide range of urban water demand possibilities in order to create a portfolio of plans which could be utilized by different water managers. A comparison and contrast of two existing methods are discussed, demonstrating the Random Walk Methodology, which will be referred to as the â On uncertainty pathâ , because it takes the uncertainties into account and can be recommended to managers. This On Uncertainty Path is composed of both dynamic forecasting method and system simulation. The outcomes show the advantage of such methods particularly for places that climate change will aggravate their water scarcity, such as Iran.

Trends in the risk of mortality due to cardiovascular diseases in five Brazilian geographic regions from 1979 to 1996

OBJECTIVE - To analyze the trends in risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases in the northern, northeastern, southern, southeastern, and central western Brazilian geographic regions from 1979 to 1996. METHODS - Data on mortality due to cardiovascular, cardiac ischemic, and cerebrovascular diseases in 5 Brazilian geographic regions were obtained from the Ministry of Health. Population estimates for the time period from 1978 to 1996 in the 5 Brazilian geographic regions were calculated by interpolation with the Lagrange method, based on the census data from 1970, 1980, 1991, and the population count of 1996, for each age bracket and sex. Trends were analyzed with the multiple linear regression model. RESULTS - Cardiovascular diseases showed a declining trend in the southern, southeastern, and northern Brazilian geographic regions in all age brackets and for both sexes. In the northeastern and central western regions, an increasing trend in the risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases occurred, except for the age bracket from 30 to 39 years, which showed a slight reduction. This resulted from the trends of cardiac ischemic and cerebrovascular diseases. The analysis of the trend in the northeastern and northern regions was impaired by the great proportion of poorly defined causes of death. CONCLUSION - The risk of death due to cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and cardiac ischemic diseases decreased in the southern and southeastern regions, which are the most developed regions in the country, and increased in the least developed regions, mainly in the central western region.

Optimização do processo de recolha de resíduos: desenvolvimento de ferramentas de investigação operacional para o problema de orientação de equipas com multi-restrições

Tese de Doutoramento em Engenharia Industrial e de Sistemas.

Trends of the Risk of Death due to Circulatory, Cerebrovascular, and Ischemic Heart Diseases in 11 Brazilian Capitals from 1980 to 1998

OBJECTIVE: To assess the trends of the risk of death due to circulatory (CD), cerebrovascular (CVD), and ischemic heart diseases (IHD) in 11 Brazilian capitals from 1980 to 1998. METHODS: Data on mortality due to CD, CVD and IHD were obtained from the Brazilian Health Ministry, and the population estimates were calculated by interpolation with the Lagrange method based on census data from 1980 and 1991 and the population count of 1996. The trends were analyzed with the multiple linear regression method. RESULTS: CD showed a trend towards a decrease in most capitals, except for Brasília, where a mild increase was observed. The cities of Porto Alegre, Curitiba, Rio de Janeiro, Cuiabá, Goiânia, Belém, and Manaus showed a decrease in the risk of death due to CVD and IHD, while the city of Brasília showed an increase in CVD and IHD. The city of São Paulo showed a mild increase in IHD for individuals of both sexes aged 30 to 39 years and for females aged 40 to 59 years. In the cities of Recife and Salvador, a reduction in CD was observed for all ages and both sexes. In the city of Recife, however, an increase in IHD was observed at younger ages (30 to 49 years), and this trend decreased until a mild reduction (-4%) was observed in males ³ 70 years. CONCLUSION: In general, a reduction in the risk of death due to CD and an increase in IHD were observed, mainly in the cities of Recife and Brasília.