Do electricity supply constraints matter for comparative advantage? : a neoclassical approach

This paper examines the extent to which electricity supply constraints could affect sectoral specialization. For this purpose, an empirical trade model is estimated from 1990-2008 panel data on 15 OECD countries and 12 manufacturing sectors. We find that along with Ricardian technological differences and Heckscher-Ohlin factor-endowment differences, productivity-adjusted electricity capacity drives sectoral specialization in several sectors. Among them, electrical equipment, transport equipment, machinery, chemicals, and paper products will see lower output shares as a result of decreases in productivity-adjusted electricity capacity. Furthermore, our dynamic panel estimation reveals that the effects of Ricardian technological differences dominate in the short-run, and factor endowment differences and productivity-adjusted electricity capacity tend to have a significant effect in only the long-run.

Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis and Bootstrap Inference: Application to Electricity Market Forecasting

In this work, we propose the Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis (SeaDFA), an extension of Nonstationary Dynamic Factor Analysis, through which one can deal with dimensionality reduction in vectors of time series in such a way that both common and specific components are extracted. Furthermore, common factors are able to capture not only regular dynamics (stationary or not) but also seasonal ones, by means of the common factors following a multiplicative seasonal VARIMA(p, d, q) × (P, D, Q)s model. Additionally, a bootstrap procedure that does not need a backward representation of the model is proposed to be able to make inference for all the parameters in the model. A bootstrap scheme developed for forecasting includes uncertainty due to parameter estimation, allowing enhanced coverage of forecasting intervals. A challenging application is provided. The new proposed model and a bootstrap scheme are applied to an innovative subject in electricity markets: the computation of long-term point forecasts and prediction intervals of electricity prices. Several appendices with technical details, an illustrative example, and an additional table are available online as Supplementary Materials.

Forecasting Electricity Prices and their volatilities using Unobserved Components.

The liberalization of electricity markets more than ten years ago in the vast majority of developed countries has introduced the need of modelling and forecasting electricity prices and volatilities, both in the short and long term. Thus, there is a need of providing methodology that is able to deal with the most important features of electricity price series, which are well known for presenting not only structure in conditional mean but also time-varying conditional variances. In this work we propose a new model, which allows to extract conditionally heteroskedastic common factors from the vector of electricity prices. These common factors are jointly estimated as well as their relationship with the original vector of series, and the dynamics affecting both their conditional mean and variance. The estimation of the model is carried out under the state-space formulation. The new model proposed is applied to extract seasonal common dynamic factors as well as common volatility factors for electricity prices and the estimation results are used to forecast electricity prices and their volatilities in the Spanish zone of the Iberian Market. Several simplified/alternative models are also considered as benchmarks to illustrate that the proposed approach is superior to all of them in terms of explanatory and predictive power.

Comparison of Chemical Absorbents Used for CO2 Capture in Coal-Fired Power Plants.

Climate change conference was hold in Copenhagen in 2009, global warming became the worldwide focus once again. China as a developing country has paid more attention for this environmental problem. In China, a large part of carbon dioxide is emitted to the atmosphere from combustion of fossil fuels in power plants. How to control emission of the greenhouse gas into atmosphere is becoming an urgent concern. Among numerous methods, CO2 capture is the hope to limit the amount of CO2 emitted into the air. The well-established method for CO2 capture is to remove CO2 by absorption into solutions in conventional equipment. Absorbents used for CO2 and H2S capture are important choice for CO2 capture technology. It is related to the cost and efficiency of plant directly and is essential to investigate the proposed CO2 and H2S absorbents.

Grid-connected roof solar plants in educational institutions for testing and electricity generation: a case in Spain.

The use of photovoltaic experimental plants in engineering educational buildings contributes to an increase in acceptance of this technology by future engineers. There are some photovoltaic (PV) systems in educational buildings in Spain, but they are usually limited to buildings in relation to electrical technologies or research areas. They are not common in other educational or official buildings. This paper presents the project of a grid-connected solar plant with two main objectives. First, different PV module technologies will be compared. Second, an emphasis on agronomical areas in educational settings will be reviewed in an attempt to facilitate student engagement in the use of the power plant. The system is grid-connected in order to pay-back the investment in the plant. In fact the electricity generated by the plant will be used by the installations of the building, as it is the closest consumer. This work intends to approximate photovoltaic technology to university degrees not directly related with it and at the same time research in comparison of systems with different technologies. This is a good example of an solar plant for both optimum production and educational purposes.

Optimización de la metodología de contratación de carbones térmicos con destino a la generación eléctrica

En los últimos quince años se ha producido una liberalización de los mercados eléctricos en los distintos países de ámbito occidental que ha ido acompañado de un incremento por la preocupación por la incidencia de las distintas tecnologías de generación en el entorno medioambiental. Ello se ha traducido en la aparición de un marco regulatorio más restrictivo sobre las tecnologías de generación fósiles, con mayor incidencia en las derivadas de productos petrolíferos y carbón. A nivel mundial han ido apareciendo cambios normativos relativos a las emisiones de distintos elementos contaminantes (CO2, SO2, NOx…), que hacen que en particular las centrales térmicas de carbón vean muy afectadas su rentabilidad y funcionamiento. Esta situación ha supuesto que la tecnología de generación eléctrica con carbón haya avanzado considerablemente en los últimos años (calderas supercríticas, sistemas de desulfuración, gasificación del carbón…). No obstante, el desarrollo de la generación con energías renovables, la generación con gas mediante centrales de ciclo combinado y la opinión social relativa a la generación con carbón, principalmente en Europa, suponen un serio obstáculo a la generación con carbón. Por consiguiente, se hace necesario buscar vías para optimizar la competitividad de las centrales de carbón y el camino más razonable es mejorar el margen esperado de estas plantas y en particular el coste de adquisición del carbón. Ello se hace aún más importante por el hecho de existir numerosas centrales de carbón y un elevado número de nuevos proyectos constructivos de centrales de carbón en países asiáticos. Por consiguiente, el objeto de la presente tesis doctoral se centra en definir una metodología para optimizar la compra de carbón, desde el punto de vista económico y técnico, con destino a su consumo en una central térmica, con ello reducir el coste del carbón consumido y mejorar su competitividad. También se enfoca a determinar que herramientas pueden ser utilizadas para optimizar la gestión del carbón después de su compra y con ello abrir la posibilidad de obtener márgenes adicionales para dicho carbón. De acuerdo con este objetivo, el autor de la presente Tesis Doctoral realiza tres aportaciones novedosas en el ámbito de la contratación de carbón térmico y su optimización posterior: - Evaluación de carbones para su adquisición considerando el efecto de la calidad del carbón en el coste de generación asociado a cada carbón ofertado. - Creación, desarrollo, implantación y utilización de una potente herramienta de planificación de Combustibles. Esta herramienta, está diseñada con el objeto de determinar la solución económica óptima de aprovisionamientos, consumos y niveles de existencias para un parque de generación con centrales de carbón y fuelóleo. - La extensión de una metodología contractual habitual en el mercado spot de Gas Natural Licuado, a la contratación spot de Carbón de Importación. Esta se basa en el desarrollo de Acuerdos Marcos de Compra/Venta de carbón, que por su flexibilidad permitan obtener resultados económicos adicionales después de la compra de un carbón. Abstract In the last fifteen years, a liberalization of the electrical markets has occurred in the western countries. This process has been accompanied by an increasing concern of the impact of the different generation technologies towards the environment. This has motivated a regulated framework restricting the use of fossil fuels, impacting a great deal in coal and oil based products. Worldwide, new legal changes have been arising related to the emissions of the different pollutants (CO2, SO2, NOx…). These changes have had a deep impact in the feasibility, profit and running of coal fired power plants. This situation has motivated the coal electrical generation technologies to move forward in an important way in the last few years (supercritical furnaces, desulphuration plants, coal gasification…). Nevertheless, the development of the renewable generation, the gas combined cycle generation and the social opinion related to the coal electrical generation, mainly in Europe, have created a serious obstacle to the generation of electricity by coal. Therefore it is necessary to look for new paths in order to optimize the competitiveness of the coal fired power plants and the most reasonable way is to improve the expected margin of these plants and particularly the coal purchase cost. All of the above needs to be taken into context with the large number of existing coal fired power plants and an important number of new projects in Asian countries. Therefore, the goal of the current doctoral dissertation is focused to define a methodology to be considered in order to optimize the coal purchase, from an economical and a technical point of view. This coal, destined for power plant consumption, permits the reduction of consumption coal cost and improves the plant’s competitiveness. This document is also focused to define what tools we can use to optimize the coal management after deal closing and therefore open the possibility to get further margins. According to this goal, the author of this doctoral dissertation provides three important new ideas in the ambit of contracting steam coal and the posterior optimization: - Evaluation of coal purchases, considering the effect of coal quality on the cost of generation associated with each type of coal offered. - The creation, development, deployment and use of a strong planning tool of fuels. This tool is designed for the purpose of determining the optimal economic solution of fuel supply, consumption and stock levels for a power generation portfolio using coal and fuel oil fired power plants. - The application of a common contractual methodology in the spot market of Liquid Natural Gas, for the contracting spot imported coal. This is based on the development of Framework Agreements for the Purchasing / Sale of coal, which because of its flexibility allows for the gain of additional financial results after the purchase of coal.

AFBC of coal with tyre rubber. Influence of the co-combustion variables on the mineral matter of solid by-products and on Zn lixiviation

The study focuses on the generation and distribution of mineral species in fly and bottom ashes. These were formed during a fluidised co-combustion of a fossil fuel (coal) and a non-fossil fuel (tyre rubber) in a small fluidised bed combustor (7cm x 70cm). The pilot plant had continuous fuel feed using varying ratios of coal and rubber. The study also focuses on the lixiviation behaviour of metallic elements with the assessement of zinc recovering.

The first renewable forward market mechanisms in the Iberian Electricity Market

A description of the first renewable forward market mechanisms in the Iberian Electricity Market is provided. A contract for difference mechanism is available in Spain since March 2011between the last resort suppliers and the special regime (renewables and cogeneration) settling the price differences between the equilibrium price of the forward regulated auctions for the last resort supply and the spot price of the corresponding delivery period. Regulated auctions of baseload futures of the Portuguese zone in which the Portuguese last resort supplier sells the special regime production exist since December 2011. The experience gained from renewables auctions in Latin America could be used in the Iberian Electricity market, complementing these first market mechanisms. Introduction of renewable auctions at least for the most mature technologies (i.e. wind) in Spain and Portugal providing a fair price for the renewable generation will be of utmost importance in the short term to diminish the tariff deficit caused by the massive deployment of the feed-in-tariff scheme. Liquidity in the forward markets will also increase as a result of the entry of renewable generation companies intending to maximize their profits due to gradual suppression of feed in tariff schemes.

Present and Future of Photovoltaic Solar Electricity

Ponencia Invitada presentada en el IEEE Region 8 Student Branch and GOLD Congress

Explosion risk in coke, coal and sulphur storage

The self-ignition of all kind of powdery substances is a topic studied over the years, especially if the dusty substance is coal or substances related with coal because it may be a cause of energetic materials and human losses. But it is important to note that this is not the only risk in industrial plants that generate or store solid substances. Every combustible powders are potentially explosive and they may cause serious consequences if all the necessary factors are developed. Due to this potentially risk, it is essential a good characterization and knowledge of all the parameters involved in those processes.

Comparisson of hydrogen applications for storage and energy vector

For the decades to come can be foreseen that electricity and water will keep be playing a key role in the countries development, both can be considered the most important energy vectors and its control can be crucial for governments, companies and leaders in general. Energy is essential for all human activities and its availability is critical to economic and social development. In particular, electricity, a form of energy, is required to produce goods, to provide medical assistance and basic civic services in education, to assure availability of clean water, to create conducive environment for prosperity and improvement, and to keep an acceptable quality of life. The way in which electricity is generated from different resources varies through the different countries. Nuclear energy controlled within reactors to steam production, gas, fuel-oil and coal fired in power stations, water, solar and wind energy among others are employed, sometimes not very efficiently, to produce electricity. The so call energy mix of an individual country is formed up by the contribution of each resource or form of energy to the electricity generation market of the so country. During the last decade the establishment of proper energy mixes for countries has gained much importance, and energy drivers should enforce long term plans and policies. Hints, reports and guides giving tracks on energy resources contribution are been developed by noticeable organisations like the IEA (International Energy Agency) or the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) and the WEC (World Energy Council). This paper evaluates energy issues the market and countries are facing today regarding energy mix scheduling and panorama. This paper revises and seeks to improve methodology available that are applicable on energy mix plan definition. Key Factors are identified, established and assessed through this paper for the common implementation, the themes driving the future energy mix methodology proposal. Those have a clear influence and are closely related to future environmental policies. Key Factors take into consideration sustainability, energy security, social and economic growth, climate change, air quality and social stability. The strength of the Key Factors application on energy system planning to different countries is contingent on country resources, location, electricity demand and electricity generation industry, technology available, economic situation and prospects, energy policy and regulation

Electricity production usíng different photovoltaic technologies working at the same conditíons , a real case

The manufacture of photovoltaic (PV) modules has greatly increased in the past few years. The classical PV module is based on crystalline silicon (e-Si) , nevertheless the so called thinfilm technology is gaining importance each year. In this research paper we present a experimental grid-connected solar plant situated in one of the buildings of the Technical University of Madrid, with two main objectives.

Analysis of the Iberian electricity forward market hedging efficiency

An assessment of the hedging performance in the Iberian Forward Electricity Market is performed. Aggregated data from the Portuguese and Spanish clearing houses for energy derivatives are considered. The hedging performance is measured through the ratio of the final open interest of a month derivatives contract divided by its accumulated cleared volume. The base load futures in the Iberian energy derivatives exchange show the lowest ratios due to good liquidity. The peak futures show bigger ratios as their reduced liquidity is produced by auctions fixed by Portuguese regulation. The base load swaps settled in the clearing house located in Spain show initially large values due to low registered volumes, as this clearing house is mainly used for short maturity (daily and weekly swaps). This hedging ratio can be a powerful oversight tool for energy regulators when accessing to all the derivatives transactions as envisaged by European regulation.

Modelling and forecasting fossil fuels, CO2 and electricity prices and their volatilities

In the current uncertain context that affects both the world economy and the energy sector, with the rapid increase in the prices of oil and gas and the very unstable political situation that affects some of the largest raw materials’ producers, there is a need for developing efficient and powerful quantitative tools that allow to model and forecast fossil fuel prices, CO2 emission allowances prices as well as electricity prices. This will improve decision making for all the agents involved in energy issues. Although there are papers focused on modelling fossil fuel prices, CO2 prices and electricity prices, the literature is scarce on attempts to consider all of them together. This paper focuses on both building a multivariate model for the aforementioned prices and comparing its results with those of univariate ones, in terms of prediction accuracy (univariate and multivariate models are compared for a large span of days, all in the first 4 months in 2011) as well as extracting common features in the volatilities of the prices of all these relevant magnitudes. The common features in volatility are extracted by means of a conditionally heteroskedastic dynamic factor model which allows to solve the curse of dimensionality problem that commonly arises when estimating multivariate GARCH models. Additionally, the common volatility factors obtained are useful for improving the forecasting intervals and have a nice economical interpretation. Besides, the results obtained and methodology proposed can be useful as a starting point for risk management or portfolio optimization under uncertainty in the current context of energy markets.