System for foreign exchange trading using genetic algorithms and reinforcement learning

Foreign exchange trading has emerged recently as a significant activity in many countries. As with most forms of trading, the activity is influenced by many random parameters so that the creation of a system that effectively emulates the trading process will be very helpful. A major issue for traders in the deregulated Foreign Exchange Market is when to sell and when to buy a particular currency in order to maximize profit. This paper presents novel trading strategies based on the machine learning methods of genetic algorithms and reinforcement learning.

Hydrothermal control on organic matter alteration and illite precipitation, Mt Isa Basin, Australia

Abundant illite precipitation, in Proterozoic rocks from Northern Lawn Hill Platform, Mt Isa Basin, Australia, occurred in organic matter-rich black shales rather than in sandstones, siltstones and organic matter-poor shales. Sandstones and siltstones acted as impermeable rocks, as early diagenetic quartz and carbonate minerals reduced the porosity-permeability. Scanning and transmission electron microscopy (SEM and TEM) studies indicate a relation between creation of microporosity-permeability and organic matter alteration, suitable for subsequent mineral precipitation. K-Ar data indicate that organic matter alteration and the subsequent illite precipitation within the organic matter occurred during the regional hydrothermal event at 1172 +/- 150 (2sigma) Ma. Hot circulating fluids are considered to be responsible for organic matter alteration, migration and removal of volatile hydrocarbon, and consequently porosity-permeability creation. Those rocks lacking sufficient porosity-permeability, such as sandstones, siltstones and organic matter poor shales, may not have been affected by fluid movement. In hydrothermal systems, shales and mudstones may not be impermeable as usually assumed because of hydrocarbons being rapidly removed by fluid, even with relatively low total organic carbon.

Identification of MIMO Hammerstein systems using cardinal spline functions

A new approach to identify multivariable Hammerstein systems is proposed in this paper. By using cardinal cubic spline functions to model the static nonlinearities, the proposed method is effective in modelling processes with hard and/or coupled nonlinearities. With an appropriate transformation, the nonlinear models are parameterized such that the nonlinear identification problem is converted into a linear one. The persistently exciting condition for the transformed input is derived to ensure the estimates are consistent with the true system. A simulation study is performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method compared with the existing approaches based on polynomials. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Data mining and simulation: a grey relationship demonstration

Fuzzy data has grown to be an important factor in data mining. Whenever uncertainty exists, simulation can be used as a model. Simulation is very flexible, although it can involve significant levels of computation. This article discusses fuzzy decision-making using the grey related analysis method. Fuzzy models are expected to better reflect decision-making uncertainty, at some cost in accuracy relative to crisp models. Monte Carlo simulation is used to incorporate experimental levels of uncertainty into the data and to measure the impact of fuzzy decision tree models using categorical data. Results are compared with decision tree models based on crisp continuous data.

Optimal control, geometry, and quantum computing

We prove upper and lower bounds relating the quantum gate complexity of a unitary operation, U, to the optimal control cost associated to the synthesis of U. These bounds apply for any optimal control problem, and can be used to show that the quantum gate complexity is essentially equivalent to the optimal control cost for a wide range of problems, including time-optimal control and finding minimal distances on certain Riemannian, sub-Riemannian, and Finslerian manifolds. These results generalize the results of [Nielsen, Dowling, Gu, and Doherty, Science 311, 1133 (2006)], which showed that the gate complexity can be related to distances on a Riemannian manifold.

Anisotropy-based robust performance analysis of finite horizon linear discrete time varying systems

We consider a problem of robust performance analysis of linear discrete time varying systems on a bounded time interval. The system is represented in the state-space form. It is driven by a random input disturbance with imprecisely known probability distribution; this distributional uncertainty is described in terms of entropy. The worst-case performance of the system is quantified by its a-anisotropic norm. Computing the anisotropic norm is reduced to solving a set of difference Riccati and Lyapunov equations and a special form equation.

Biologically inspired joint control for a humanoid robot

The GuRm is a 1.2m tall, 23 degree of freedom humanoid consuucted at the University of Queensland for research into humanoid robotics. The key challenge being addressed by the GuRw projcct is the development of appropriate learning strategies for control and coodinadon of the robot’s many joints. The development of learning strategies is Seen as a way to sidestep the inherent intricacy of modeling a multi-DOP biped robot. This paper outlines the approach taken to generate an appmpria*e control scheme for the joinis of the GuRoo. The paper demonsrrates the determination of local feedback control parameters using a genetic algorithm. The feedback loop is then augmented by a predictive modulator that learns a form of feed-fonward control to overcome the irregular loads experienced at each joint during the gait cycle. The predictive modulator is based on thc CMAC architecture. Results from tats on the GuRoo platform show that both systems provide improvements in stability and tracking of joint control.

Improved robust control of nonlinear stochastic systems using uncertain models

We introduce a technique for quantifying and then exploiting uncertainty in nonlinear stochastic control systems. The approach is suboptimal though robust and relies upon the approximation of the forward and inverse plant models by neural networks, which also estimate the intrinsic uncertainty. Sampling from the resulting Gaussian distributions of the inversion based neurocontroller allows us to introduce a control law which is demonstrably more robust than traditional adaptive controllers.

Multi-valued control problems and mixture density network

We have proposed a novel robust inversion-based neurocontroller that searches for the optimal control law by sampling from the estimated Gaussian distribution of the inverse plant model. However, for problems involving the prediction of continuous variables, a Gaussian model approximation provides only a very limited description of the properties of the inverse model. This is usually the case for problems in which the mapping to be learned is multi-valued or involves hysteritic transfer characteristics. This often arises in the solution of inverse plant models. In order to obtain a complete description of the inverse model, a more general multicomponent distributions must be modeled. In this paper we test whether our proposed sampling approach can be used when considering an arbitrary conditional probability distributions. These arbitrary distributions will be modeled by a mixture density network. Importance sampling provides a structured and principled approach to constrain the complexity of the search space for the ideal control law. The effectiveness of the importance sampling from an arbitrary conditional probability distribution will be demonstrated using a simple single input single output static nonlinear system with hysteretic characteristics in the inverse plant model.

Neural network enhanced self tuning adaptive control application for non-linear control of dynamic systems

The main theme of research of this project concerns the study of neutral networks to control uncertain and non-linear control systems. This involves the control of continuous time, discrete time, hybrid and stochastic systems with input, state or output constraints by ensuring good performances. A great part of this project is devoted to the opening of frontiers between several mathematical and engineering approaches in order to tackle complex but very common non-linear control problems. The objectives are: 1. Design and develop procedures for neutral network enhanced self-tuning adaptive non-linear control systems; 2. To design, as a general procedure, neural network generalised minimum variance self-tuning controller for non-linear dynamic plants (Integration of neural network mapping with generalised minimum variance self-tuning controller strategies); 3. To develop a software package to evaluate control system performances using Matlab, Simulink and Neural Network toolbox. An adaptive control algorithm utilising a recurrent network as a model of a partial unknown non-linear plant with unmeasurable state is proposed. Appropriately, it appears that structured recurrent neural networks can provide conveniently parameterised dynamic models for many non-linear systems for use in adaptive control. Properties of static neural networks, which enabled successful design of stable adaptive control in the state feedback case, are also identified. A survey of the existing results is presented which puts them in a systematic framework showing their relation to classical self-tuning adaptive control application of neural control to a SISO/MIMO control. Simulation results demonstrate that the self-tuning design methods may be practically applicable to a reasonably large class of unknown linear and non-linear dynamic control systems.

Computer integrated manufacturing control

Many manufacturing companies have long endured the problems associated with the presence of `islands of automation'. Due to rapid computerisation, `islands' such as Computer-Aided Design (CAD), Computer-Aided Manufacturing (CAM), Flexible Manufacturing Systems (FMS) and Material Requirement Planning (MRP), have emerged, and with a lack of co-ordination, often lead to inefficient performance of the overall system. The main objective of Computer-Integrated Manufacturing (CIM) technology is to form a cohesive network between these islands. Unfortunately, a commonly used approach - the centralised system approach, has imposed major technical constraints and design complication on development strategies. As a consequence, small companies have experienced difficulties in participating in CIM technology. The research described in this thesis has aimed to examine alternative approaches to CIM system design. Through research and experimentation, the cellular system approach, which has existed in the form of manufacturing layouts, has been found to simplify the complexity of an integrated manufacturing system, leading to better control and far higher system flexibility. Based on the cellular principle, some central management functions have also been distributed to smaller cells within the system. This concept is known, specifically, as distributed planning and control. Through the development of an embryo cellular CIM system, the influence of both the cellular principle and the distribution methodology have been evaluated. Based on the evidence obtained, it has been concluded that distributed planning and control methodology can greatly enhance cellular features within an integrated system. Both the cellular system approach and the distributed control concept will therefore make significant contributions to the design of future CIM systems, particularly systems designed with respect to small company requirements.

Modular system design and control for flexible assembly

Flexible Assembly Systems (FASs) are normally associated with the automatic, or robotic, assembly of products, supported by automated material handling systems. However, manual assembly operations are still prevalent within many industries, where the complexity and variety of products prohibit the development of suitable automated assembly equipment. This article presents a generic model for incorporating flexibility into the design and control of assembly operations concerned with high variety/low volume manufacture, drawing on the principles for Flexible Manufacturing Systems (FMS) and Just-in-Time (JIT) delivery. It is based on work being undertaken in an electronics company where the assembly operations have been overhauled and restructured in response to a need for greater flexibility, shorter cycle times and reduced inventory levels. The principles employed are in themselves not original. However, the way they have been combined and tailored has created a total manufacturing control system which represents a new concept for responding to demands placed on market driven firms operating in an uncertain environment.

Probabilistic control for uncertain systems

In this paper a new framework has been applied to the design of controllers which encompasses nonlinearity, hysteresis and arbitrary density functions of forward models and inverse controllers. Using mixture density networks, the probabilistic models of both the forward and inverse dynamics are estimated such that they are dependent on the state and the control input. The optimal control strategy is then derived which minimizes uncertainty of the closed loop system. In the absence of reliable plant models, the proposed control algorithm incorporates uncertainties in model parameters, observations, and latent processes. The local stability of the closed loop system has been established. The efficacy of the control algorithm is demonstrated on two nonlinear stochastic control examples with additive and multiplicative noise.

Comparison between conventional and stochastic pinning control

Theoretical developments on pinning control of complex dynamical networks have mainly focused on the deterministic versions of the model dynamics. However, the dynamical behavior of most real networks is often affected by stochastic noise components. In this paper the pinning control of a stochastic version of the coupled map lattice network with spatiotemporal characteristics is studied. The control of these complex dynamical networks have functional uncertainty which should be considered when calculating stabilizing control signals. Two feedback control methods are considered: the conventional feedback control and modified stochastic feedback control. It is shown that the typically-used conventional control method suffers from the ignorance of model uncertainty leading to a reduction and potentially a collapse in the control efficiency. Numerical verification of the main result is provided for a chaotic coupled map lattice network. © 2011 IEEE.