Dynamical evolution of North Atlantic ridges and poleward Jet Stream displacements

The development of a particular wintertime atmospheric circulation regime over the North Atlantic, comprising a northward shift of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream and an associated strong and persistent ridge in the subtropics, is investigated. Several different methods of analysis are combined to describe the temporal evolution of the events and relate it to shifts in the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic pattern. First, the authors identify a close relationship between northward shifts of the eddy-driven jet, the establishment and maintenance of strong and persistent ridges in the subtropics, and the occurrence of upper-tropospheric anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking over Iberia. Clear tropospheric precursors are evident prior to the development of the regime, suggesting a preconditioning of the Atlantic jet stream and an upstream influence via a large-scale Rossby wave train from the North Pacific. Transient (2–6 days) eddy forcing plays a dual role, contributing to both the initiation and then the maintenance of the circulation anomalies. During the regime there is enhanced occurrence of anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking, which may be described as low-latitude blocking-like events over the southeastern North Atlantic. A strong ridge is already established at the time of wave-breaking onset, suggesting that the role of wave-breaking events is to amplify the circulation anomalies rather than to initiate them. Wave breaking also seems to enhance the persistence, since it is unlikely that a persistent ridge event occurs without being also accompanied by wave breaking.

Developing construction professional services in the international market: SWOT analysis of China

Construction professional services (CPSs), such as architecture, engineering, and consultancy, are not only high value-added profit centers in their own right but also have a knock-on effect on other businesses, such as construction and the export of materials and machinery. Arguably, competition in the international construction market has shifted to these knowledge-intensive CPS areas. Yet CPSs represent a research frontier that has received scant attention. This research aims to enrich the body of knowledge on CPSs by examining strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) of Chinese CPSs (CCPSs) in the international context. It does so by triangulating theories with quantitative and qualitative data gleaned from yearbooks, annual reports, interviews, seminars, and interactions with managers in major CCPS companies. It is found that CCPSs present both strengths and weaknesses in talents, administration systems, and development strategies in dealing with the external opportunities and threats brought about by globalization and market evolution. Low price, which has helped the Chinese construction business to succeed in the international market, is also a major CCPS strength. An opportunity for CCPSs is the relatively strong delivery capability possessed by Chinese contractors; by partnering with them CCPSs can better establish themselves in the international arena. This is probably the first ever comprehensive study on the performance of CCPSs in the international marketplace. The research is conducted at an opportune time, particularly when the world is witnessing the burgeoning force of Chinese businesses in many areas including manufacturing, construction, and, potentially, professional services. It adds new insights to the knowledge body of CPSs and provides valuable references to other countries faced with the challenge of developing CPS business efficiently in the international market.

Multiscale geostatistical analysis of AVHRR, SPOT-VGT, and MODIS global NDVI products

Global NDVI data are routinely derived from the AVHRR, SPOT-VGT, and MODIS/Terra earth observation records for a range of applications from terrestrial vegetation monitoring to climate change modeling. This has led to a substantial interest in the harmonization of multisensor records. Most evaluations of the internal consistency and continuity of global multisensor NDVI products have focused on time-series harmonization in the spectral domain, often neglecting the spatial domain. We fill this void by applying variogram modeling (a) to evaluate the differences in spatial variability between 8-km AVHRR, 1-km SPOT-VGT, and 1-km, 500-m, and 250-m MODIS NDVI products over eight EOS (Earth Observing System) validation sites, and (b) to characterize the decay of spatial variability as a function of pixel size (i.e. data regularization) for spatially aggregated Landsat ETM+ NDVI products and a real multisensor dataset. First, we demonstrate that the conjunctive analysis of two variogram properties – the sill and the mean length scale metric – provides a robust assessment of the differences in spatial variability between multiscale NDVI products that are due to spatial (nominal pixel size, point spread function, and view angle) and non-spatial (sensor calibration, cloud clearing, atmospheric corrections, and length of multi-day compositing period) factors. Next, we show that as the nominal pixel size increases, the decay of spatial information content follows a logarithmic relationship with stronger fit value for the spatially aggregated NDVI products (R2 = 0.9321) than for the native-resolution AVHRR, SPOT-VGT, and MODIS NDVI products (R2 = 0.5064). This relationship serves as a reference for evaluation of the differences in spatial variability and length scales in multiscale datasets at native or aggregated spatial resolutions. The outcomes of this study suggest that multisensor NDVI records cannot be integrated into a long-term data record without proper consideration of all factors affecting their spatial consistency. Hence, we propose an approach for selecting the spatial resolution, at which differences in spatial variability between NDVI products from multiple sensors are minimized. This approach provides practical guidance for the harmonization of long-term multisensor datasets.

Near-optimal mean value estimates for multidimensional Weyl sums

We obtain sharp estimates for multidimensional generalisations of Vinogradov’s mean value theorem for arbitrary translation-dilation invariant systems, achieving constraints on the number of variables approaching those conjectured to be the best possible. Several applications of our bounds are discussed.

Inferring animal husbandry strategies in coastal zones through stable isotope analysis: new evidence from the Flemish coastal plain (Belgium, 1st-15th century AD)

In a proof-of-concept study, Britton et al. (2008) demonstrated that the isotopic composition of halophytic plants can be traced in the skeletal tissues of their animal consumers. Here we apply the method to domestic herbivore remains (n = 303) from nine archaeological sites in or near the Flemish coastal plain (Belgium), where, prior to embankments, salt-marshes offered extensive pasture grounds for domestic herbivores. The sites span a period of ∼1500 years (Roman to late medieval period), during which the coastal landscape was progressively transformed from little managed wetlands to a fully embanked polder area. The bulk collagen data show variations between sites and over time, which are consistent with this historical framework and are interpreted as reflecting environmental change and differences in animal management in the coastal plain throughout the late Holocene. The study demonstrates the immense value of faunal stable isotope analysis for characterising coastal husbandry strategies beyond the means of traditional zooarchaeological techniques.

Developing construction professional services in the international market: a SWOT analysis of China

In contrast to their bustling construction counterparts, Chinese construction professional services (CPS) such as architecture, engineering, and consultancy, seem still to be stagnant in the international market. CPS are not only high value-added profit centers in their own right, but also have a knock-on effect on subsequent businesses such as construction, and the export of materials and machinery. Arguably, competition in the international construction market has shifted to knowledge-intensive CPS. Yet,CPS represent a research area that has been paid scant attention. This research aims to add to the body of knowledge of CPS by examining strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) of Chinese CPS (CCPS) in the international context. It does so by triangulating theories with quantitative and qualitative data gleaned from yearbooks, annual reports, interviews, seminars, and interactions with managers in major CCPS companies. It is found that CCPS present both strengths and weaknesses in talents, administration systems, and development strategies in dealing with the external opportunities and threats brought about by globalization and market evolvement. Low price, which has helped the Chinese construction business to succeed in the international market, is also a CCPS major strength. An opportunity for CCPS is the relatively strong delivery capability possessed by Chinese contractors. By partnering with them CCPS can better edge into the international arena. This is probably the first ever comprehensive study in investigating the performance of CCPS in the international market. The research is also timely, particularly when the world is witnessing the burgeoning force of Chinese businesses in many areas including manufacturing, construction, and potentially, professional services.

Meta-analysis of the INSIG2 association with obesity including 74,345 individuals: does heterogeneity of estimates relate to study design?

The INSIG2 rs7566605 polymorphism was identified for obesity (BMI> or =30 kg/m(2)) in one of the first genome-wide association studies, but replications were inconsistent. We collected statistics from 34 studies (n = 74,345), including general population (GP) studies, population-based studies with subjects selected for conditions related to a better health status ('healthy population', HP), and obesity studies (OB). We tested five hypotheses to explore potential sources of heterogeneity. The meta-analysis of 27 studies on Caucasian adults (n = 66,213) combining the different study designs did not support overall association of the CC-genotype with obesity, yielding an odds ratio (OR) of 1.05 (p-value = 0.27). The I(2) measure of 41% (p-value = 0.015) indicated between-study heterogeneity. Restricting to GP studies resulted in a declined I(2) measure of 11% (p-value = 0.33) and an OR of 1.10 (p-value = 0.015). Regarding the five hypotheses, our data showed (a) some difference between GP and HP studies (p-value = 0.012) and (b) an association in extreme comparisons (BMI> or =32.5, 35.0, 37.5, 40.0 kg/m(2) versus BMI<25 kg/m(2)) yielding ORs of 1.16, 1.18, 1.22, or 1.27 (p-values 0.001 to 0.003), which was also underscored by significantly increased CC-genotype frequencies across BMI categories (10.4% to 12.5%, p-value for trend = 0.0002). We did not find evidence for differential ORs (c) among studies with higher than average obesity prevalence compared to lower, (d) among studies with BMI assessment after the year 2000 compared to those before, or (e) among studies from older populations compared to younger. Analysis of non-Caucasian adults (n = 4889) or children (n = 3243) yielded ORs of 1.01 (p-value = 0.94) or 1.15 (p-value = 0.22), respectively. There was no evidence for overall association of the rs7566605 polymorphism with obesity. Our data suggested an association with extreme degrees of obesity, and consequently heterogeneous effects from different study designs may mask an underlying association when unaccounted for. The importance of study design might be under-recognized in gene discovery and association replication so far.

An environmental uncertainty-based diagnostic reference tool for evaluating the performance of supply chain value streams

This research has responded to the need for diagnostic reference tools explicitly linking the influence of environmental uncertainty and performance within the supply chain. Uncertainty is a key factor influencing performance and an important measure of the operating environment. We develop and demonstrate a novel reference methodology based on data envelopment analysis (DEA) for examining the performance of value streams within the supply chain with specific reference to the level of environmental uncertainty they face. In this paper, using real industrial data, 20 product supply value streams within the European automotive industry sector are evaluated. Two are found to be efficient. The peer reference groups for the underperforming value streams are identified and numerical improvement targets are derived. The paper demonstrates how DEA can be used to guide supply chain improvement efforts through role-model identification and target setting, in a way that recognises the multiple dimensions/outcomes of the supply chain process and the influence of its environmental conditions. We have facilitated the contextualisation of environmental uncertainty and its incorporation into a specific diagnostic reference tool.

Do IMF and World Bank programs induce government crises? an empirical analysis

We examine whether and under what circumstances World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs affect the likelihood of major government crises. We find that crises are, on average, more likely as a consequence of World Bank programs. We also find that governments face an increasing risk of entering a crisis when they remain under an IMF or World Bank arrangement once the economy's performance improves. The international financial institution's (IFI) scapegoat function thus seems to lose its value when the need for financial support is less urgent. While the probability of a crisis increases when a government turns to the IFIs, programs inherited by preceding governments do not affect the probability of a crisis. This is in line with two interpretations. First, the conclusion of IFI programs can signal the government's incompetence, and second, governments that inherit programs might be less likely to implement program conditions agreed to by their predecessors.

A Lagrangian analysis of ice-supersaturated air over the North Atlantic

Understanding the nature of air parcels that exhibit ice-supersaturation is important because they are the regions of potential formation of both cirrus and aircraft contrails, which affect the radiation balance. Ice-supersaturated air parcels in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere over the North Atlantic are investigated using Lagrangian trajectories. The trajectory calculations use ERA-Interim data for three winter and three summer seasons, resulting in approximately 200,000 trajectories with ice-supersaturation for each season. For both summer and winter, the median duration of ice-supersaturation along a trajectory is less than 6 hours. 5% of air which becomes ice-supersaturated in the troposphere, and 23% of air which becomes ice-supersaturated in the stratosphere will remain ice-supersaturated for at least 24 hours. Weighting the ice-supersaturation duration with the observed frequency indicates the likely overall importance of the longer duration ice-supersaturated trajectories. Ice-supersaturated air parcels typically experience a decrease in moisture content while ice-supersaturated, suggesting that cirrus clouds eventually form in the majority of such air. A comparison is made between short-lived (less than 24 h) and long-lived (greater than 24 h) ice-supersaturated air flows. For both air flows, ice-supersaturation occurs around the northernmost part of the trajectory. Short-lived ice-supersaturated air flows show no significant differences in speed or direction of movement to subsaturated air parcels. However, long-lived ice-supersaturated air occurs in slower moving air flows, which implies that they are not associated with the fastest moving air through a jet stream.

Expected value, reward outcome, and temporal difference error representations in a probabilistic decision task

In probabilistic decision tasks, an expected value (EV) of a choice is calculated, and after the choice has been made, this can be updated based on a temporal difference (TD) prediction error between the EV and the reward magnitude (RM) obtained. The EV is measured as the probability of obtaining a reward x RM. To understand the contribution of different brain areas to these decision-making processes, functional magnetic resonance imaging activations related to EV versus RM (or outcome) were measured in a probabilistic decision task. Activations in the medial orbitofrontal cortex were correlated with both RM and with EV and confirmed in a conjunction analysis to extend toward the pregenual cingulate cortex. From these representations, TD reward prediction errors could be produced. Activations in areas that receive from the orbitofrontal cortex including the ventral striatum, midbrain, and inferior frontal gyrus were correlated with the TD error. Activations in the anterior insula were correlated negatively with EV, occurring when low reward outcomes were expected, and also with the uncertainty of the reward, implicating this region in basic and crucial decision-making parameters, low expected outcomes, and uncertainty.

Gaussian anamorphosis in the analysis step of the EnKF: a joint state-variable/observation approach

The analysis step of the (ensemble) Kalman filter is optimal when (1) the distribution of the background is Gaussian, (2) state variables and observations are related via a linear operator, and (3) the observational error is of additive nature and has Gaussian distribution. When these conditions are largely violated, a pre-processing step known as Gaussian anamorphosis (GA) can be applied. The objective of this procedure is to obtain state variables and observations that better fulfil the Gaussianity conditions in some sense. In this work we analyse GA from a joint perspective, paying attention to the effects of transformations in the joint state variable/observation space. First, we study transformations for state variables and observations that are independent from each other. Then, we introduce a targeted joint transformation with the objective to obtain joint Gaussianity in the transformed space. We focus primarily in the univariate case, and briefly comment on the multivariate one. A key point of this paper is that, when (1)-(3) are violated, using the analysis step of the EnKF will not recover the exact posterior density in spite of any transformations one may perform. These transformations, however, provide approximations of different quality to the Bayesian solution of the problem. Using an example in which the Bayesian posterior can be analytically computed, we assess the quality of the analysis distributions generated after applying the EnKF analysis step in conjunction with different GA options. The value of the targeted joint transformation is particularly clear for the case when the prior is Gaussian, the marginal density for the observations is close to Gaussian, and the likelihood is a Gaussian mixture.

Mismatch Negativity (MMN) reveals inefficient auditory ventral stream function in chronic auditory comprehension impairments

Background: Auditory discrimination is significantly impaired in Wernicke’s aphasia (WA) and thought to be causatively related to the language comprehension impairment which characterises the condition. This study used mismatch negativity (MMN) to investigate the neural responses corresponding to successful and impaired auditory discrimination in WA. Methods: Behavioural auditory discrimination thresholds of CVC syllables and pure tones were measured in WA (n=7) and control (n=7) participants. Threshold results were used to develop multiple-deviant mismatch negativity (MMN) oddball paradigms containing deviants which were either perceptibly or non-perceptibly different from the standard stimuli. MMN analysis investigated differences associated with group, condition and perceptibility as well as the relationship between MMN responses and comprehension (within which behavioural auditory discrimination profiles were examined). Results: MMN waveforms were observable to both perceptible and non-perceptible auditory changes. Perceptibility was only distinguished by MMN amplitude in the PT condition. The WA group could be distinguished from controls by an increase in MMN response latency to CVC stimuli change. Correlation analyses displayed relationship between behavioural CVC discrimination and MMN amplitude in the control group, where greater amplitude corresponded to better discrimination. The WA group displayed the inverse effect; both discrimination accuracy and auditory comprehension scores were reduced with increased MMN amplitude. In the WA group, a further correlation was observed between the lateralisation of MMN response and CVC discrimination accuracy; the greater the bilateral involvement the better the discrimination accuracy. Conclusions: The results from this study provide further evidence for the nature of auditory comprehension impairment in WA and indicate that the auditory discrimination deficit is grounded in a reduced ability to engage in efficient hierarchical processing and the construction of invariant auditory objects. Correlation results suggest that people with chronic WA may rely on an inefficient, noisy right hemisphere auditory stream when attempting to process speech stimuli.

Integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth in Iberian viticultural regions

The Iberian viticultural regions are convened according to the Denomination of Origin (DO) and present different climates, soils, topography and management practices. All these elements influence the vegetative growth of different varieties throughout the peninsula, and are tied to grape quality and wine type. In the current study, an integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth was performed for the Iberian DO regions, using state-of-the-art datasets. For climatic assessment, a categorized index, accounting for phenological/thermal development, water availability and grape ripening conditions was computed. Soil textural classes were established to distinguish soil types. Elevation and aspect (orientation) were also taken into account, as the leading topographic elements. A spectral vegetation index was used to assess grapevine vegetative growth and an integrated analysis of all variables was performed. The results showed that the integrated climate-soil-topography influence on vine performance is evident. Most Iberian vineyards are grown in temperate dry climates with loamy soils, presenting low vegetative growth. Vineyards in temperate humid conditions tend to show higher vegetative growth. Conversely, in cooler/warmer climates, lower vigour vineyards prevail and other factors, such as soil type and precipitation acquire more important roles in driving vigour. Vines in prevailing loamy soils are grown over a wide climatic diversity, suggesting that precipitation is the primary factor influencing vigour. The present assessment of terroir characteristics allows direct comparison among wine regions and may have great value to viticulturists, particularly under a changing climate.

An analysis of the accuracy of magnetopause reconnection rate variations deduced from cusp ion dispersion characteristics

We present an analysis of the accuracy of the method introduced by Lockwood et al. (1994) for the determination of the magnetopause reconnection rate from the dispersion of precipitating ions in the ionospheric cusp region. Tests are made by applying the method to synthesised data. The simulated cusp ion precipitation data are produced by an analytic model of the evolution of newly-opened field lines, along which magnetosheath ions are firstly injected across the magnetopause and then dispersed as they propagate into the ionosphere. The rate at which these newly opened field lines are generated by reconnection can be varied. The derived reconnection rate estimates are then compared with the input variation to the model and the accuracy of the method assessed. Results are presented for steady-state reconnection, for continuous reconnection showing a sine-wave variation in rate and for reconnection which only occurs in square wave pulses. It is found that the method always yields the total flux reconnected (per unit length of the open-closed field-line boundary) to within an accuracy of better than 5%, but that pulses tend to be smoothed so that the peak reconnection rate within the pulse is underestimated and the pulse length is overestimated. This smoothing is reduced if the separation between energy channels of the instrument is reduced; however this also acts to increase the experimental uncertainty in the estimates, an effect which can be countered by improving the time resolution of the observations. The limited time resolution of the data is shown to set a minimum reconnection rate below which the method gives spurious short-period oscillations about the true value. Various examples of reconnection rate variations derived from cusp observations are discussed in the light of this analysis.