The changing behaviour of the term structure of post-war US

Using U.S. interest rate data covering the period 1950:1-1992:7, this paper tests the rational expectations model of the term structure of interest rates. We show evidence that the rational expectations model of the term structure is supported by the data during the seventies and a period lasting from the mid-eighties to the end of the sample. However, during the …fties, sixties and a period that covers most of the Volcker’s office term (from September 1979 to April 1986) the term structure model is rejected by the data. Moreover, wefind evidence of regime changes in the short-term rate process and the term structure of interest rates. These regime switches roughly coincide with changes in the Federal Reserve chairman. The switches in monetary policy taking place when the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve changes therefore seem to play an important role in characterizing the term structure of interest rates.

The role of the term spread in an augmented Taylor rule: An empirical investigation

Using US data for the period 1967:5-2002:4, this paper empirically investigates the performance of an augmented version of the Taylor rule (ATR) that (i) allows for the presence of switching regimes, (ii) considers the long-short term spread in addition to the typical variables, (iii) uses an alternative monthly indicator of general economic activity suggested by Stock and Watson (1999), and (iv) considers interest rate smoothing. The estimation results show the existence of switching regimes, one characterized by low volatility and the other by high volatility. Moreover, the scale of the responses of the Federal funds rate to movements in the term spread, inflation and the economic activity index depend on the regime. The estimation results also show robust empirical evidence that the ATR has been more stable during the term of office of Chairman Greenspan than in the pre-Greenspan period. However, a closer look at the Greenspan period shows the existence of two alternative regimes and that the response of the Fed funds rate to inflation has not been significant during this period once the term spread is considered.

Mortality estimates of the four major Cichlid fishes of Umuoseriche Lake, Imo State, Nigeria

The mortality of the four major cichlid fishes of Urnuoseriche Lake is the subject of this paper. Mortality I as estimated by five techniques, vary amongst the cichlid fishes, viz, Tilapia carbrae, Tilapia mariac, Tilapia zilli cend (hrornoditilapfa guntheri. The highest mortality rate was recorded for T mariac where the total mortality (Z) was 2.06; and natural mortality (M) was 1.8949. This species was also the most highly exploited species of fish with an exploitation ratio of0.566 (56.6%) and exploitation rate of 0.494. The least exploited cichlid fish is (. gun/hen where an exploitation ratio of 0.43209%) and exploitation rate of 0.2225 was recorded. In C'. guntheni, total mortality was 0.726 and natural mortality was 0.413 1. In T zilli, total mortality was 1.0547 wile exploitation ratio was 0.3674 (3 6.74%) and an exploitation rate was 0.2394. In T cahrae. total mortality was 1.8662: exploitation ratio was 0.4786 with an exploitation rate of 0.4045. (7 page document)

PICES-GLOBEC International Program on Climate Change and Carrying Capacity: Report of 2001 BASS/MODEL, MONITOR and REX Workshops, and the 2002 MODEL/REX Workshop

Table of Contents [pdf, 0.22 Mb] Executive Summary [pdf, 0.31 Mb] Report of the 2001 BASS/MODEL Workshop [pdf, 0.65 Mb] To review ecosystem models for the subarctic gyres Report of the 2001 MONITOR Workshop [pdf, 0.7 Mb] To review ecosystem models for the subarctic gyres Workshop presentations: Sonia D. Batten PICES Continuous Plankton Recorder pilot project Phillip R. Mundy GEM (Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Trustee Council`s "Gulf Ecosystem Monitoring" initiative) and U.S. GOOS plans in the North Pacific Ron McLaren and Brian O`Donnell A proposal for a North Pacific Action group of the international Data Buoy Cooperation Panel Gilberto Gaxiola-Castrol and Sila Najera-Martinez The Mexican oceanographic North Pacific program: IMECOCAL Sydney Levitus Building global ocean profile and plankton databases for scientific research Report of the 2001 REX Workshop [pdf, 1.73 Mb] On temporal variations in size-at-age for fish species in coastal areas around the Pacific Rim Workshop presentations: Brian J. Pyper, Randall M. Peterman, Michael F. Lapointe and Carl J. Walters [pdf, 0.33 Mb] Spatial patterns of covariation in size-at-age of British Columbia and Alaska sockeye salmon stocks and effects of abundance and ocean temperature R. Bruce MacFarlane, Steven Ralston, Chantell Royer and Elizabeth C. Norton [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Influences of the 1997-1998 El Niño and 1999 La Niña on juvenile Chinook salmon in the Gulf of the Farallones Olga S. Temnykh and Sergey L. Marchenko [pdf, 0.5 Mb] Variability of the pink salmon sizes in relation with abundance of Okhotsk Sea stocks Ludmila A. Chernoivanova, Alexander N. Vdoven and D.V. Antonenko [pdf, 0.3 Mb] The characteristic growth rate of herring in Peter the Great Bay (Japan/East Sea) Nikolay I. Naumenko [pdf, 0.5 Mb] Temporal variations in size-at-age of the western Bering Sea herring Evelyn D. Brown [pdf, 0.45 Mb] Effects of climate on Pacific herring, Clupea pallasii, in the northern Gulf of Alaska and Prince William Sound, Alaska Jake Schweigert, Fritz Funk, Ken Oda and Tom Moore [pdf, 0.6 Mb] Herring size-at-age variation in the North Pacific Ron W. Tanasichuk [pdf, 0.3 Mb] Implications of variation in euphausiid productivity for the growth, production and resilience of Pacific herring (Clupea pallasi) from the southwest coast of Vancouver Island Chikako Watanabe, Ahihiko Yatsu and Yoshiro Watanabe [pdf, 0.3 Mb] Changes in growth with fluctuation of chub mackerel abundance in the Pacific waters off central Japan from 1970 to 1997 Yoshiro Watanabe, Yoshiaki Hiyama, Chikako Watanabe and Shiro Takayana [pdf, 0.35 Mb] Inter-decadal fluctuations in length-at-age of Hokkaido-Sakhalin herring and Japanese sardine in the Sea of Japan Pavel A. Balykin and Alexander V. Buslov [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Long-term variability in length of walley pollock in the western Bering Sea and east Kamchtka Alexander A. Bonk [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Effect of population abundance increase on herring distribution in the western Bering Sea Sergey N. Tarasyuk [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Survival of yellowfin sole (Limanda aspera Pallas) in the northern part of the Tatar Strait (Sea of Japan) during the second half of the 20th century Report of the 2002 MODEL/REX Workshop [pdf, 1.2 Mb] To develop a marine ecosystem model of the North Pacific Ocean including pelagic fishes Summary and Overview [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Workshop presentations: Bernard A. Megrey, Kenny Rose, Francisco E. Werner, Robert A. Klumb and Douglas E. Hay [pdf, 0.47 Mb] A generalized fish bioenergetics/biomass model with an application to Pacific herring Robert A. Klumb [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Review of Clupeid biology with emphasis on energetics Douglas E. Hay [pdf, 0.47 Mb] Reflections of factors affecting size-at-age and strong year classes of herring in the North Pacific Shin-ichi Ito, Yutaka Kurita, Yoshioki Oozeki, Satoshi Suyama, Hiroya Sugisaki and Yongjin Tian [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Review for Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) study under the VENFISH project lexander V. Leonov and Gennady A. Kantakov [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Formalization of interactions between chemical and biological compartments in the mathematical model describing the transformation of nitrogen, phosphorus, silicon and carbon compounds Herring group report and model results [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Saury group report and model results [pdf, 0.46 Mb] Model experiments and hypotheses Recommendations [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Achievements and future steps Acknowledgements [pdf, 0.29 Mb] References [pdf, 0.32 Mb] Appendix 1. List of Participants [pdf, 0.32 Mb] Appendices 2-5. FORTRAN codes [pdf, 0.4 Mb] (Document pdf contains 182 pages)

The influence of disparate levels of submersed aquatic vegetation on largemouth bass population characteristics in a Georgia reservoir

Population characteristics of largemouth bass (Micropterous salmoides L.) including growth, body condition (relative weight), size structure, survival, and fecundity were examined in relation to abundance of submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) coverage (primarily hydrilla Hydrilla verticillata L.f. Royle) in three major embayments of Lake Seminole, Georgia. Relative weight, fecundity, and growth of large-mouth bass in the Spring Creek embayment (76% areal SAV coverage) was considerably less than measured in the Chattahoochee and Flint river arms that contained lower SAV coverages (26% and 32%). It took fish 1.8 years longer to reach 406 mm in Spring Creek compared to the Chattahoochee-Flint arms. Consequently, fish were smaller in Spring Creek than in the Chattahoochee-Flint arms. In addition, due to slower growth rates and lower fecundity-to-body weight relation, we predicted a 47% reduction in total potential ova production in Spring Creek compared to the other two reservoir embayments. The annual survival rate of 3 to 10 year old largemouth bass was higher in Spring Creek (84%) than in the Chattahoochee-Flint arms (72%) and suggested either lower harvest and/or lower accessibility of particularly larger fish to angling in dense vegetation. Contrary to our expectaions, the fit between number-at-age and age in a catch-curve regression was weaker for fish collected in Spring Creek and suggested greater recruitment variability has occurred over time in this highly vegetated embayment. In Lake Seminole, spatial differences in largemouth bass population characterstics were associated with disparate levels of SAV. Our data suggest that a reduction in hydrilla, but maintenance of an intermediate level of SAV in Spring Creek, should improve largermouth bass population in this arm of the reservoir.

Population response of triploid grass carp to declining levels of hydrilla in the Santee Cooper Reservoirs, South Carolina

Approximately 768,500 triploid grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella Valenciennes) were stocked into the Santee Cooper reservoirs, South Carolina between 1989 and 1996 to control hydrilla ( Hydrilla verticillata (L.f.) Royle). Hydrilla coverage was reduced from a high of 17,272 ha during 1994 to a few ha by 1998. During 1997, 1998 and 1999, at least 98 triploid grass carp were collected yearly for population monitoring. Estimates of age, growth, and mortality, as well as population models, were used in the study to monitor triploid grass carp and predict population trends. Condition declined from that measured during a previous study in 1994. The annual mortality rate was estimated at 28% in 1997, 32% in 1998 and 39% in 1999; however, only the 1999 mortality rate was significantly different. Few (2 out of 98) of the triploid grass carp collected during 1999 were older than age 9. We expect increased mortality due to an aging population and sparse hydrilla coverage. During 1999, we estimated about 63,000 triploid grass carp system wide and project less than 3,000 fish by 2004, assuming no future stocking. management, population size Ctenopharyngodon idella, Hydrilla

The von Neumann-Morgenstern stable sets for 2x2 games

We analyze the von Neumann and Morgenstern stable sets for the mixed extension of 2 2 games when only single profitable deviations are allowed. We show that the games without a strict Nash equilibrium have a unique vN&M stable set and otherwise they have infinite sets.

GmcA Is a Putative Glucose-Methanol-Choline Oxidoreductase Required for the Induction of Asexual Development in Aspergillus nidulans

18 p.

A Finite Element Analysis of a Crack Penetrating or Deflecting into an Interface in a Thin Laminate

The crack tip driving force of a crack growing from a pre-crack that is perpendicular to and terminating at an interface between two materials is investigated using a linear fracture mechanics theory. The analysis is performed both for a crack penetrating the interface, growing straight ahead, and for a crack deflecting into the interface. The results from finite element calculations are compared with asymptotic solutions for infinitesimally small crack extensions. The solution is found to be accurate even for fairly large amounts of crack growth. Further, by comparing the crack tip driving force of the deflected crack with that of the penetrating crack, it is shown how to control the path of the crack by choosing the adhesion of the interface relative to the material toughness.

Molecular dynamics studies of brittle fracture of SiO2

By applying for molecular dynamics (MD) simulation and Griffith fracture criterion, the brittle behavior of crack extension of mode I type is investigated. The critical stress intensity factor (SIF)K-Ic(MD) of crack extension is calculated, and the evolution of atoms near crack tip is observed. It is found that K-Ic(MD) is in good agreement with the Griffith ftacture criterion K-Ic(Griffith).

Study on fatigue crack nucleation of electrodeposited nanocrystalline nickel

The mechanism of fatigue crack nucleation for nanocrystalline (nc) nickel was experimentally investigated in this paper. The samples of electrodeposited ne nickel were loaded cyclically by using a three point bending instrument at first. Then, atomic force microscopy (AFM) was used to scanning the sample surface after fatigue testing. The results indicated that, after fatigue testing, there are vortex-like cells with an average size of 108nm appeared along the crack on nc nickel sample. And, the roughness of sample surface increased with the maximum stress at the surface.

Assessment of cobia, Rachycentron canadum, in the waters of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico

This assessment applies to cobia (Rachycentron canadum) located in the territorial waters of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Separation of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean is defined by the seaward extension of the Dade/Monroe county line in south Florida. Mixing of fish between the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico occurs in the Florida Keys during winter months. Cobia annually migrate north in early spring in the Gulf to spawning grounds in the northern Gulf of Mexico, returning to the Florida Keys by winter. Catches of cobia in the Gulf of Mexico are dominated by recreational landings, accounting for nearly 90% of the total. Since 1980, the landings of cobia in the recreational fishery have remained fairly stable at around 400-600 mt with a slight peak of 1,014 mt in 1997. The recreational fishery was estimated to have landed 471 mt in 2000. The landings from the commercial fishery have shown a steady increase from 45 mt in 1980 to a peak of 120 mt in 1994, followed by a decline to 62 mt in 2000. The previous assessment of cobia occurred in 1996 using a virtual population analysis (VPA) model. For this analysis a surplus-production model (ASPIC) and a forward-projecting, age-structured population model programmed in the AD Model Builder (ADMB) software were applied to cobia data from the Gulf of Mexico. The primary data consisted of four catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) indices derived from the Marine Recreational Fisheries Statistics Survey (MRFSS) (1981-1999), Southeast region headboat survey (1986-1999), Texas creel survey (1983-1999), and shrimp bycatch estimates (1980-1999). Length samples were available from the commercial (1983-2000) and recreational (1981-2000) fisheries. The ASPIC model applied to the cobia data provided unsatisfactory results. The ADMB model fit described the observed length composition data and fishery landings fairly well based on graphical examination of model residuals. The CPUE indices indicated some disagreement for various years, but the model fit an overall increasing trend from 1992-1997 for the MRFSS, headboat, and Texas creel indices. The shrimp bycatch CPUE was treated as a recruitment index in the model. The fit to these data followed an upward trend in recruitment from 1988-1997, but did not fit the 1994-1997 data points very well. This was likely the result of conflicting information from other data sources. Natural mortality (M) for cobia is unknown. As a result, a range of values for M from 0.2-0.4, based on longevity and growth parameters, were selected for use in the age-structured model. The choice of natural mortality appears to greatly influence the perceived status of the population. Population status as measured by spawning stock biomass in the last year relative to the value at maximum sustainable yield (SSB2000/SSBMSY), spawning stock biomass in the last year relative to virgin spawning stock biomass (SSB2000/S0), and static spawning stock biomass per recruit (SSBR) all indicate the population is either depleted, near MSY, or well above MSY depending on the choice of M. The variance estimates for these benchmarks are very large and in most cases ranges from depleted to very healthy status. The only statement that can be made with any degree of certainty about cobia in the Gulf of Mexico is that the population has increased since the 1980s. (PDF contains 61 pages)

Birkenhead Sixth Form College: Opening up remote access to the college network brings wider benefits to all

Birkenhead Sixth Form College implemented a virtual network to open up remote access to the college network for its students, staff and governors. In particular, for childcare students on work placements, this has meant 24/7 secure access to their work and resources, and the ability to make timely updates to their work evidence logs. The impact is better continuity of learning and a dramatic increase in the hand-in rate for work. For the staff, governors and college as a whole, the benefits of anytime-access to the network are more than were envisaged at the outset; not only is it saving them valuable time and eliminating the need for large print runs, it is expected to bring cost-savings to the College in the long term.

Investigation of unusual mortalities of bottlenose dolphins along the mid-Texas coastal bay ecosystem during 1992

An investigation was conducted into the deaths of more than 220 bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) that occurred within the coastal bay ecosystem of mid-Texas between January and May 1992. The high mortality rate was unusual in that it was limited to a relatively small geographical area, occurred primarily within an inshore bay system separated from the Gulf of Mexico by barrier islands, and coincided with deaths of other taxa including birds and fish. Factors examined to determine the potential causes of the dolphin mortalities included microbial pathogens, natural biotoxins, industrial pollutants, other environmental contaminants, and direct human interactions. Emphasis was placed on nonpoint source pesticide runoff from agricultural areas, which had resulted from record rainfall that occurred during the period of increased mortality. Analytical results from sediment, water, and biota indicated that biotoxins, trace metals, and industrial chemical contamination were not likely causative factors in this mortality event. Elevated concentrations of pesticides (atrazine and aldicarb) were detected in surface water samples from bays within the region, and bay salinities were reduced to <10 ppt from December 1991 through April 1992 due to record rainfall and freshwater runoff exceeding any levels since 1939. Prolonged exposure to low salinity could have played a significant role in the unusual mortalities because low salinity exposure may cause disruption of the permeability barrier in dolphin skin. The lack of established toxicity data for marine mammals, particularly dermal absorption and bioaccumulation, precludes accurate toxicological interpretation of results beyond a simple comparison to terrestrial mammalian models. Results clearly indicated that significant periods of agricultural runoff and accompanying low salinities co-occurred with the unusual mortality event in Texas, but no definitive cause of the mortalities was determined. (PDF file contains 25 pages.)

Population dynamics of the anchoveta, Cetengraulis mysticetus, in the Gulf of Panama, as determined by tagging experiments

ENGLISH: The anchoveta is the major constituent of the important bait and reduction fisheries of the Gulf of Panama. It is a short-lived species, the great majority of the catch consisting of fish in their first year of life. Fish for reduction are caught chiefly in the Isla Verde area, between Punta Chame and the entrance of the Panama Canal. In 1960 and 1961 anchovetas were tagged with metal internal tags and released in the major areas of occurrence of this species. The tags were recovered from the meal in the reduction plants with magnets. From the 53,380 fish tagged in 1960, 745 tags were returned during the 1960 season, 246 during the 1961 season, and 8 during the 1962 season. From the 113,202 tagged in 1961, 373 tags were returned during the 1961 season and 48 during the 1962 season. Complete catch statistics are available, and length-frequency and length-weight data were used to convert these from pounds to numbers of fish of each year class. The annual survival rate for the fish of the 1959 year class in the Isla Verde area was estimated to be 0.086 by the Chapman-Robson method, 0.102 by the year-class method, and 0.088 by the Jackson positive method. The first method is considered to give the best estimate. Six estimates of the population of fish of the 1959 year class in the Isla Verde area were obtained from the sample tag ratios of six experiments conducted in that area in 1960. The estimates differed due to the temporal decrease in the population, but the downward trend corresponded fairly well to what was expected from the total annual mortality rate. It was estimated that the population of 1959-year class fish was about 818 million on March 8, 1960, and about 70 million on March 8, 1961. As the population of anchovetas decreases during the season the effort increases sufficiently that the catch remains roughly constant. This is described as the "constant absolute catch" type fishery. Of the original population of fish in the Isla Verde area at the beginning of the 1960 season, about 11 per cent were caught and 81 per cent died of natural causes. Evaluation of growth and mortality data demonstrated that beginning the fishery for the youngest age group later than March 8 (the date it began in 1960) would reduce the yield per recruit, while increasing the fishing effort would greatly increase it. Further, it is believed unlikely that increases in the catch in the Isla Verde area alone would noticeably decrease the number of recruits to that area. Therefore there is no foreseeable need for regulation of the fishery. SPANISH: El principal constituyente de la importante pesquería para carnada y para reducción en el Golfo de Panamá es la anchoveta. Es una especie de vida corta cuya pesca, en su mayor parte, está constituida por peces que se encuentran en su primer año de vida. Para la industria de reducción los peces son capturados principalmente en el área de Isla Verde, entre Punta Chame y la entrada del Canal de Panamá. En 1960 y 1961 las anchovetas fueron marcadas con marcas metálicas internas y liberadas en las áreas más importantes en que se encuentra esta especie. Las marcas fueron recobradas de la harina en las plantas de reducción por medio de magnetos. De los 53,380 peces marcados en 1960, fueron devueltas 745 marcas durante la temporada pesquera de 1960, 246 durante la de 1961, y 8 durante la de 1962. De los 113,202 marcados en 1961, 373 marcas fueron devueltas durante la temporada pesquera de 1961 y 48 durante la de 1962. Se dispone de estadísticas completas de captura, y los datos de frecuencia-longitud y de longitud-peso fueron usados para convertir éstos de libras a números de peces de cada clase anual. La tasa anual de supervivencia correspondiente a la clase anual de 1959 en el área de Isla Verde estimó en 0.086 por medio del método Chapman-Robson; en 0.102 por método de la clase anual; y en 0.088 por el método positivo de Jackson. Se considera que el primer método dé la mejor estimación. Seis estimaciones de la población de peces de la clase anual 1959 en el área de Isla Verde fueron obtenidas según la proporción de marcas halladas en las muestras correspondientes a seis experimentos efectuados en aquella área en 1960. Las estimaciones variaron debido a la disminución temporal de la población, pero esta tendencia descendente correspondió bastante bien a lo que se esperaba según la tasa total de mortalidad anual. Se estimó que la población de peces de la clase anual de 1959 era de unos 818 millones el 8 de marzo de 1960, y aproximadamente de unos 70 millones el 8 de marzo de 1961. Conforme a que la población de anchovetas disminuye durante la temporada pesquera, el esfuerzo aumenta lo suficientemente como para que la pesca se mantenga más o menos constante. Este es el tipo de pesquería descrito como de "captura absoluta constante". De la población original de peces en el área de Isla Verde al comienzo de la temporada pesquera de 1960, cerca del 11 por ciento fue capturada y el 81 por ciento murió por causas naturales. La evaluación de los datos del crecimiento mortalidad demostraron que al comenzar la pesquería a explotar grupo de edad más joven en una fecha posterior al 8 de marzo (la fecha en que comenzó en 1960) se reduciría el rendimiento por recluta, mientras que al aumentar el esfuerzo de pesca lo aumentaría considerablemente. Más aún, se cree improbable que el aumento en la pesca en el área de Isla Verde de por sí disminuyera perceptiblemente el número de reclutas en esa área. En consecuencia no se prevé la necesidad de una reglamentación de la pesquería. (PDF contains 172 pages.)