Panel index VAR models: Specification, Estimation, Testing and Leading Indicators

This paper proposes a method to conduct inference in panel VAR models with cross unit interdependencies and time variations in the coefficients. The approach can be used to obtain multi-unit forecasts and leading indicators and to conduct policy analysis in a multiunit setups. The framework of analysis is Bayesian and MCMC methods are used to estimate the posterior distribution of the features of interest. The model is reparametrized to resemble an observable index model and specification searches are discussed. As an example, we construct leading indicators for inflation and GDP growth in the Euro area using G-7 information.

Cabo Verde Uma Experiência Colonial Acelerada (Sec.XVI-XVII)

Não vamos aqui trazer matéria nova relativamente ao que está escrito nos dois volumes já publicados da História Geral de Cabo Verde e nos vários artigos preparatórios e/ou resultantes desse labor, quase contínuo, de historiadores caboverdianos e portugueses. Propomo-nos antes observar o resultado do nosso trabalho, procurando uma perspectiva distanciada que permita encontrar algumas linhas de força na média duração de cerca de dois séculos. Poderíamos começar pela verificação de que, aqui se aprontou o primeiro cadinho de interacção de povos e culturas luso euro/africanos, na África ao Sul do Saara. Mas sabemos como os avanços e retrocessos, as continuidades e rupturas eliminam, e invertem até, prioridades de zonas geográficas. A História está cheia desses exemplos. Por isso, o primeiro indicador que se impõe, na perspectiva da média duração, não está tanto na antecipação e precocidade dos fenómenos sociais e culturais, resultantes da colonização europeia na África, mas no ritmo com que a nova sociedade os vive, apropria, integra e reinterpreta.

A PARIDADE CAMBIAL E AS SUAS VANTAGENS PARA A ECONOMIA CABOVERDIANA

A gestão da economia é uma actividade inerente a todos os países, uma vez que a escassez de recursos é uma realidade inquestionável. Cabo Verde elegeu a estabilidade de preços como um dos principais pilares da sua política económica e, neste contexto identificou a Paridade Cambial ao Euro como um meio privilegiado para a sua consecução. Neste âmbito, assinou o Acordo de Cooperação Cambial (ACC) em 1998 com Portugal como forma de credibilizar a Paridade Cambial com o Euro. Este trabalho, embora de cariz académico, tem por objectivo estudar as vantagens da Paridade Cambial para a Economia Cabo-verdiana. É composto por quatro capítulos e um glossário. Para sua realização foram consultados livros, Decretos-Lei, sítios, relatórios e boletins do Banco de Cabo Verde (BCV). O Capítulo I descreve os principais regimes cambiais existentes, apresentando as suas características, suas vantagens e desvantagens. O Capítulo II apresenta os critérios e indicadores, normalmente utilizados pelos países na escolha do regime cambial. O Capítulo III fala dos regimes cambiais em Cabo Verde, mostra que até se chegar ao regime cambial actual o país já passou por várias experiências cambiais. O Capítulo IV descreve o ACC, começando por apresentar as suas características e os seus objectivos, analisa as vantagens e os eventuais custos da Paridade Cambial CVE/Euro e por fim fala da credibilidade do regime cambial de Cabo Verde.

Fiscal policy, pricing frictions and monetary accommodation

We investigate the theoretical conditions for effectiveness of government consumptionexpenditure expansions using US, Euro area and UK data. Fiscal expansions taking placewhen monetary policy is accommodative lead to large output multipliers in normal times.The 2009-2010 packages need not produce significant output multipliers, may havemoderate debt effects, and only generate temporary inflation. Expenditure expansionsaccompanied by deficit/debt consolidations schemes may lead to short run output gains buttheir success depends on how monetary policy and expectations behave. Trade opennessand the cyclicality of the labor wedge explain cross-country differences in the magnitude ofthe multipliers.

A foundation for strategic agenda voting

We offer complete characterizations of the equilibrium outcomesof two prominent agenda voting institutions that are widely used in the democraticworld: the amendment, also known as the Anglo-American procedure,and the successive, or equivalently the Euro-Latin procedure. Our axiomaticapproach provides a proper understanding of these voting institutions, and allowscomparisons between them, and with other voting procedures.

Similarities and convergence in G-7 cycles

This paper examines the properties of G-7 cycles using a multicountry Bayesian panelVAR model with time variations, unit specific dynamics and cross country interdependences.We demonstrate the presence of a significant world cycle and show that country specificindicators play a much smaller role. We detect differences across business cycle phasesbut, apart from an increase in synchronicity in the late 1990s, find little evidence of major structural changes. We also find no evidence of the existence of an Euro area specific cycle or of its emergence in the 1990s.

Prévention de la violence commise par les spectateurs lors de manifestations sportives : étude des mesures préventives et de la responsabilité de l'organisateur à la lumière du droit comparé, du droit suisse et du droit associatif

Introduction 1. Généralités : Le sport occupe une place importante dans notre société, de manière active par la pratique d'une ou de plusieurs activités sportives, ou de manière passive, au travers de la presse, de la radio et de la télévision. Le sport est ainsi un acte de participation, d'appartenance, de revendication et d'intégration à la société en général ou à un groupe. Il stimule l'imagination et permet de rêver aux héros sportifs. Enfin, non seulement il améliore la santé de ceux qui le pratique, mais il a une dimension éducative et joue un rôle social, culturel et récréatif. Toutefois, le sport est également un spectacle qui provoque des passions et engendre des émotions de la part des supporters, dont certains s'exaltent pour leur équipe fétiche. Il arrive que ce supportérisme soit à tel point exacerbé qu'il mène à des dérives pouvant aboutir à des actes de violence dans et en dehors des stades, ceci tant avant, pendant qu'après le match. A titre d'exemple tragique, les téléspectateurs garderont longtemps en mémoire les scènes auxquelles ils ont assisté le 29 mai 1985, en direct, lorsque, avant le début de la rencontre, des hooligans anglais ont attaqué des supporters italiens dans les gradins du bloc Z du stade du Heysel à Bruxelles, lors de la finale de la Coupe d'Europe des champions, opposant le FC Liverpool à la Juventus de Turin; 39 personnes en sont mortes et 600 ont été blessées. La Suisse, longtemps épargnée par le phénomène, en regard de la situation qui a prévalu dans d'autres Etats européens, ne peut échapper, depuis quelques années, au triste constat selon lequel les stades constituent désormais des environnements propices à des actions de violence, de racisme et, plus rarement, d'extrémisme. Le cas le plus révélateur a eu lieu le 13 mai 2006, lorsque des fauteurs de trouble ont envahi le terrain du Parc Saint-Jacques de Bâle après le coup de sifflet final du match de championnat opposant le FC Bâle au FC Zurich, match dont l'enjeu était la première place du classement du championnat de Super League, pour attaquer à coups de pied et à coups de poing des joueurs, des accompagnants et des personnes chargées de la sécurité. Les affrontements ont continué dans la rue jusque tard dans la soirée. Il s'en est suivi une centaine de blessés et des dégâts d'un demi million de francs. De tels débordements mettent en danger la sécurité du public, des équipes et des arbitres. Il s'agit de tout mettre en oeuvre afin que les spectateurs qui assistent à une manifestation sportive puissent prendre du plaisir aux performances des sportifs sans devoir craindre pour leur sécurité. De même, les acteurs sur le terrain doivent pouvoir exercer leur sport sans craindre un envahissement de l'aire de jeu. Ainsi, les Etats et les associations sportives ont élaboré des textes juridiques afin d'éviter des débordements ou tout autre événement qui pourraient mettre en danger des personnes ou des biens matériels lors de manifestations sportives. Sous l'angle du droit étatique helvétique, cela s'est traduit, notamment en vue du déroulement en Suisse du Championnat d'Europe de football de l'UEFA en 2008 (EURO 2008) et du Championnat du monde de hockey sur glace en 2009, par l'adoption de mesures préventives permettant de lutter contre les actes de violence lors de manifestations sportives, introduites dans la Loi fédérale du 21 mars 1997 instituant des mesures visant au maintien de la sûreté intérieure (LMSI). Elles se concrétisent par l'inscription d'individus ayant commis des actes de violence dans une banque de données nationale, ainsi que par le recours au périmètre d'exclusion, à l'interdiction de sortie du territoire, à l'obligation de s'annoncer à la police et, en dernier ressort, à la garde à vue; enfin, il est également possible de saisir, séquestrer ou confisquer du matériel de propagande5. La mise en place de telles mesures relève de l'Etat, garant de la sécurité et de l'ordre publics à l'extérieur des enceintes sportives. L'organisateur, chargé quant à lui d'assurer la sécurité à l'intérieur du stade, n'est toutefois pas en marge, puisque les fédérations et associations sportives ont édicté des règlements dont il est le destinataire. Ces textes prévoient, à sa charge, notamment les mesures suivantes: le prononcé d'interdictions de stade à l'encontre de supporters violents, la fouille accrue des spectateurs, l'engagement d'un service de sécurité privé, l'obligation de désigner un responsable de la sécurité, la séparation des différents groupes de supporters, etc.. Il appartient ainsi aux associations sportives, aux organisateurs, aux chargés de la sécurité au sein des clubs et aux forces de l'ordre public d'appliquer de la meilleure façon que ce soit les mesures proposées et de collaborer afin de combattre les débordements des spectateurs de manière effective. Prévenir et supprimer la violence dans les manifestations sportives exige ainsi la mobilisation et la collaboration de tous les protagonistes concernés.

Does money matter in shaping domestic business cycles? An international investigation (with appendices)

We study the contribution of money to business cycle fluctuations in the US,the UK, Japan, and the Euro area using a small scale structural monetary business cycle model. Constrained likelihood-based estimates of the parameters areprovided and time instabilities analyzed. Real balances are statistically importantfor output and inflation fluctuations. Their contribution changes over time. Models giving money no role provide a distorted representation of the sources of cyclicalfluctuations, of the transmission of shocks and of the events of the last 40 years.

Workshop: Capacity building for national public health advocacy: case studies from national associations

The first statement of the EUPHA on the Future of Public Health in Europe refers to the need for going 'to policymakers, politicians and practitioners in all sectors of society and advise them on how to promote public health throughout society'. WHO-EURO Director General Marc Danzon, quoted in the second EUPHA statement on the responsibility of policy makers indicates that 'learning is not systematically applied in health policy development in our continent'. Statement 3 calls for the integration of public health into the political agenda in all sectors. The first EUPHA president, Louise Gunning-Schepers, quoted in Statement 10 called on EUPHA to become 'a powerful advocate of the public health community'. In addition to the above, the EU is now actively seeking ways to build capacity to implement its health strategy. Learning and building the capacity to achieve our aims The aims and objectives to promote the public's health as reflected in EUPHA's 10 statements are also mirrored in the national public health associations. However, many of EUPHA's national associations have little or limited experience in promoting public health policy at the national level. To assist in the learning of advocacy for public health policies, case studies presenting experiences of national public health organizations in lobbying for national public health policy will be presented and discussed. In addition to sharing experiences, the presentations will identify successful approaches to public health advocacy as well as lessons learned from unsuccessful attempts.

The structural dynamics of output growth and inflation: some international evidence

We examine the dynamics of output growth and inflation in the US, Euro area and UK using a structural time varying coefficient VAR. There are important similarities in structural inflation dynamics across countries; output growth dynamics differ. Swings in the magnitude of inflation and output growth volatilities and persistences are accounted for by a combination of three structural shocks. Changes over time in the structure of the economy are limited and permanent variations largely absent. Changes in the volatilities of structural shocks matter.

Do institutional changes affect business cycles? Evidence from Europe

We study the effects that the Maastricht treaty, the creation of the ECB, andthe Euro changeover had on the dynamics of European business cycles using a panelVAR and data from ten European countries - seven from the Euro area and threeoutside of it. There are changes in the features of European business cycles and in thetransmission of shocks. They precede the three events of interest and are more linkedto a general process of European convergence and synchronization.

Home care: a safe and attractive alternative to inpatient administration of intensive chemotherapies.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate feasibility, safety, perception, and costs of home care for the administration of intensive chemotherapies. METHODS: Patients receiving sequential chemotherapy in an inpatient setting, living within 30 km of the hospital, and having a relative to care for them were offered home care treatment. Chemotherapy was administered by a portable, programmable pump via an implantable catheter. The main endpoints were safety, patient's quality of life [Functional Living Index-Cancer (FLIC)], satisfaction of patients and relatives, and costs. RESULTS: Two hundred days of home care were analysed, representing a total of 46 treatment cycles of intensive chemotherapy in 17 patients. Two cycles were complicated by technical problems that required hospitalisation for a total of 5 days. Three major medical complications (heart failure, angina pectoris, and major allergic reaction) could be managed at home. Grades 1 and 2 nausea and vomiting occurring in 36% of patients could be treated at home. FLIC scores remained constant throughout the study. All patients rated home care as very satisfactory or satisfactory. Patient benefits of home care included increased comfort and freedom. Relatives acknowledged better tolerance and less asthenia of the patient. Home care resulted in a 53% cost benefit compared to hospital treatment (<euro>420 ± 120/day vs. <euro>896 ± 165/day). CONCLUSION: Administration of intensive chemotherapy regimens at home was feasible and safe. Quality of life was not affected; satisfaction of patients and relatives was very high. A psychosocial benefit was observed for patients and relatives. Furthermore, a cost-benefit of home care compared to hospital treatment was demonstrated.

Comparative testing of a miniature diffusion size classifier to assess airborne ultrafine particles under field conditions

Miniature diffusion size classifiers (miniDiSC) are novel handheld devices to measure ultrafine particles (UFP). UFP have been linked to the development of cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases; thus, detection and quantification of these particles are important for evaluating their potential health hazards. As part of the UFP exposure assessments of highwaymaintenance workers in western Switzerland, we compared a miniDiSC with a portable condensation particle counter (P-TRAK). In addition, we performed stationary measurements with a miniDiSC and a scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS) at a site immediately adjacent to a highway. Measurements with miniDiSC and P-TRAK correlated well (correlation of r = 0.84) but average particle numbers of the miniDiSC were 30%âeuro"60% higher. This difference was significantly increased for mean particle diameters below 40 nm. The correlation between theminiDiSC and the SMPSduring stationary measurements was very high (r = 0.98) although particle numbers from the miniDiSC were 30% lower. Differences between the three devices were attributed to the different cutoff diameters for detection. Correction for this size dependent effect led to very similar results across all counters.We did not observe any significant influence of other particle characteristics. Our results suggest that the miniDiSC provides accurate particle number concentrations and geometric mean diameters at traffic-influenced sites, making it a useful tool for personal exposure assessment in such settings.

Quality assessment of cardiovascular magnetic resonance in the setting of the European CMR registry: description and validation of standardized criteria.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) has become an important diagnostic imaging modality in cardiovascular medicine. However, insufficient image quality may compromise its diagnostic accuracy. We aimed to describe and validate standardized criteria to evaluate a) cine steady-state free precession (SSFP), b) late gadolinium enhancement (LGE), and c) stress first-pass perfusion images. These criteria will serve for quality assessment in the setting of the Euro-CMR registry. METHODS: Thirty-five qualitative criteria were defined (scores 0-3) with lower scores indicating better image quality. In addition, quantitative parameters were measured yielding 2 additional quality criteria, i.e. signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of non-infarcted myocardium (as a measure of correct signal nulling of healthy myocardium) for LGE and % signal increase during contrast medium first-pass for perfusion images. These qualitative and quantitative criteria were assessed in a total of 90 patients (60 patients scanned at our own institution at 1.5T (n=30) and 3T (n=30) and in 30 patients randomly chosen from the Euro-CMR registry examined at 1.5T). Analyses were performed by 2 SCMR level-3 experts, 1 trained study nurse, and 1 trained medical student. RESULTS: The global quality score was 6.7±4.6 (n=90, mean of 4 observers, maximum possible score 64), range 6.4-6.9 (p=0.76 between observers). It ranged from 4.0-4.3 for 1.5T (p=0.96 between observers), from 5.9-6.9 for 3T (p=0.33 between observers), and from 8.6-10.3 for the Euro-CMR cases (p=0.40 between observers). The inter- (n=4) and intra-observer (n=2) agreement for the global quality score, i.e. the percentage of assignments to the same quality tertile ranged from 80% to 88% and from 90% to 98%, respectively. The agreement for the quantitative assessment for LGE images (scores 0-2 for SNR <2, 2-5, >5, respectively) ranged from 78-84% for the entire population, and 70-93% at 1.5T, 64-88% at 3T, and 72-90% for the Euro-CMR cases. The agreement for perfusion images (scores 0-2 for %SI increase >200%, 100%-200%,<100%, respectively) ranged from 81-91% for the entire population, and 76-100% at 1.5T, 67-96% at 3T, and 62-90% for the Euro-CMR registry cases. The intra-class correlation coefficient for the global quality score was 0.83. CONCLUSIONS: The described criteria for the assessment of CMR image quality are robust with a good inter- and intra-observer agreement. Further research is needed to define the impact of image quality on the diagnostic and prognostic yield of CMR studies.

The impact of eliminating a child benefit on birth timing and infant health

We study the effects of the cancellation of a sizeable child benefit in Spainon birth timing and neonatal health. In May 2010, the government announced that a2,500-euro universal "baby bonus" would stop being paid to babies born startingJanuary 1, 2011. We use detailed micro data from birth certificates from 2000 to 2011,and find that more than 2,000 families were able to anticipate the date of birth of theirbabies from (early) January 2011 to (late) December 2010 (for a total of about 10,000births a week nationally). This shifting took place in part via an increase as well as ananticipation of pre-programmed c-sections, seemingly mostly in private clinics. We findthat this shifting of birthdates resulted in a significant increase in the number ofborderline low birth weight babies, as well as a peak in neonatal mortality. The resultssuggest that announcement effects are important, and that families and healthprofessionals may face effective trade-offs when deciding on the timing (and method) ofbirth.