Gold investments and short- and long-run price determinants of the price of gold

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on tutkia tekijöitä jotkavaikuttavat lyhyellä ja pitkällä aikavälillä kullan hintaan. Toiseksi tutkielmassa selvitetään mitä eri sijoitusmahdollisuuksia löytyy kultaan sijoitettaessa. Aineistona käytetään kuukausitasoista dataa Yhdysvaltain ja maailman hintaindekseistä, Yhdysvaltain ja maailman inflaatiosta ja inflaation volatiliteetista, kullan beetasta, kullan lainahinnasta, luottoriskistä ja Yhdysvaltojen ja maailman valuuttakurssi indeksistä joulukuulta 1972 elokuulle 2006. Yhteisintegraatio regressiotekniikoita käytettiin muodostamaan malli jonka avullatutkittiin päätekijöitä jotka vaikuttavat kullan hintaan. Kirjallisuutta tutkimalla selvitettiin miten kultaan voidaan sijoittaa. Empiirisettulokset ovat yhteneväisiä edellisten tutkimusten kanssa. Tukea löytyi sille, että kulta on pitkän ajan suoja inflaatiota vastaan ja kulta ja Yhdysvaltojen inflaatio liikkuvat pitkällä aikavälillä yhdessä. Kullan hintaan vaikuttavat kuitenkin lyhyen ajan tekijät pitkän ajan tekijöitä enemmän. Kulta on myös sijoittajalle helppo sijoituskohde, koska se on hyvin saatavilla markkinoilla ja eri instrumentteja on lukuisia.

Three essays on short-term macroeconomics : business fluctuations, large devaluations and inflation dynamics

Résumé: At least since the Great Depression, explaining why there are business fluctuations has been one of the biggest challenges that the science of economics has had to face. The hope is that if we could better understand recessions, then we could also be more successful in overcoming them. This dissertation consists of three papers that are part of the general endeavor of economists to understand these fluctuations. The first paper discusses, for a particular model, whether a result related to fluctuations would still hold if time were modeled as continuous rather than discrete. The two other papers focus on price stickiness. The second paper discusses why, after a large devaluation, prices of non-tradables may change by only a small amount in comparison to the magnitude of the devaluation. The third paper examines price adjustment in a model in which information is imperfect and it is costly to change prices.

Torque vibration model of axial-flux surface-mounted permanent magnet synchronous machine

In order that the radius and thus ununiform structure of the teeth and otherelectrical and magnetic parts of the machine may be taken into consideration the calculation of an axial flux permanent magnet machine is, conventionally, doneby means of 3D FEM-methods. This calculation procedure, however, requires a lotof time and computer recourses. This study proves that also analytical methods can be applied to perform the calculation successfully. The procedure of the analytical calculation can be summarized into following steps: first the magnet is divided into slices, which makes the calculation for each section individually, and then the parts are submitted to calculation of the final results. It is obvious that using this method can save a lot of designing and calculating time. Thecalculation program is designed to model the magnetic and electrical circuits of surface mounted axial flux permanent magnet synchronous machines in such a way, that it takes into account possible magnetic saturation of the iron parts. Theresult of the calculation is the torque of the motor including the vibrations. The motor geometry and the materials and either the torque or pole angle are defined and the motor can be fed with an arbitrary shape and amplitude of three-phase currents. There are no limits for the size and number of the pole pairs nor for many other factors. The calculation steps and the number of different sections of the magnet are selectable, but the calculation time is strongly depending on this. The results are compared to the measurements of real prototypes. The permanent magnet creates part of the flux in the magnetic circuit. The form and amplitude of the flux density in the air-gap depends on the geometry and material of the magnetic circuit, on the length of the air-gap and remanence flux density of the magnet. Slotting is taken into account by using the Carter factor in the slot opening area. The calculation is simple and fast if the shape of the magnetis a square and has no skew in relation to the stator slots. With a more complicated magnet shape the calculation has to be done in several sections. It is clear that according to the increasing number of sections also the result will become more accurate. In a radial flux motor all sections of the magnets create force with a same radius. In the case of an axial flux motor, each radial section creates force with a different radius and the torque is the sum of these. The magnetic circuit of the motor, consisting of the stator iron, rotor iron, air-gap, magnet and the slot, is modelled with a reluctance net, which considers the saturation of the iron. This means, that several iterations, in which the permeability is updated, has to be done in order to get final results. The motor torque is calculated using the instantaneous linkage flux and stator currents. Flux linkage is called the part of the flux that is created by the permanent magnets and the stator currents passing through the coils in stator teeth. The angle between this flux and the phase currents define the torque created by the magnetic circuit. Due to the winding structure of the stator and in order to limit the leakage flux the slot openings of the stator are normally not made of ferromagnetic material even though, in some cases, semimagnetic slot wedges are used. In the slot opening faces the flux enters the iron almost normally (tangentially with respect to the rotor flux) creating tangential forces in the rotor. This phenomenon iscalled cogging. The flux in the slot opening area on the different sides of theopening and in the different slot openings is not equal and so these forces do not compensate each other. In the calculation it is assumed that the flux entering the left side of the opening is the component left from the geometrical centre of the slot. This torque component together with the torque component calculated using the Lorenz force make the total torque of the motor. It is easy to assume that when all the magnet edges, where the derivative component of the magnet flux density is at its highest, enter the slot openings at the same time, this will have as a result a considerable cogging torque. To reduce the cogging torquethe magnet edges can be shaped so that they are not parallel to the stator slots, which is the common way to solve the problem. In doing so, the edge may be spread along the whole slot pitch and thus also the high derivative component willbe spread to occur equally along the rotation. Besides forming the magnets theymay also be placed somewhat asymmetric on the rotor surface. The asymmetric distribution can be made in many different ways. All the magnets may have a different deflection of the symmetrical centre point or they can be for example shiftedin pairs. There are some factors that limit the deflection. The first is that the magnets cannot overlap. The magnet shape and the relative width compared to the pole define the deflection in this case. The other factor is that a shifting of the poles limits the maximum torque of the motor. If the edges of adjacent magnets are very close to each other the leakage flux from one pole to the other increases reducing thus the air-gap magnetization. The asymmetric model needs some assumptions and simplifications in order to limit the size of the model and calculation time. The reluctance net is made for symmetric distribution. If the magnets are distributed asymmetrically the flux in the different pole pairs will not be exactly the same. Therefore, the assumption that the flux flows from the edges of the model to the next pole pairs, in the calculation model from one edgeto the other, is not correct. If it were wished for that this fact should be considered in multi-pole pair machines, this would mean that all the poles, in other words the whole machine, should be modelled in reluctance net. The error resulting from this wrong assumption is, nevertheless, irrelevant.

Short communication. Persistence of point crop yield subjective estimates

En este trabajo se investiga la persistencia de las estimaciones puntuales subjetivas de rendimientos en cultivos anua- les realizadas por un amplio grupo de agricultores. La persistencia en el tiempo es una condición necesaria para la co- herencia y la confiabilidad de las estimaciones subjetivas de variables aleatorias. Los sujetos entrevistados estimaron valores puntuales de rendimientos de cultivos anuales (rendimientos medio, mayor, mínimo y más frecuente). Se han encontrado diferencias relativas poco importantes en todas las variables, excepto en los rendimientos mínimos, donde existe una alta dispersión. Los resultados son interesantes para estimar la adecuación de las técnicas de estimación de probabilidades subjetivas para ser utilizadas en los sistemas de ayuda en la toma de decisiones en agricultura.

Short communication. SNP analyses of the 5HT1R and STAT genes in Pacific white shrimp, Litopenaeus vannamei

La industria de la producción de camarón es una de las industrias acuícolas que se encuentra en más crecimiento en la actualidad. Los estudios para encontrar marcadores genéticos son muy efectivos para la mejora de sus propiedades y de gran interés para los productores de camarón. En este trabajo se utilizaron seis individuos de una población de Litopenaeus vannamei, donde se encontraron cuatro polimorfismos de nucleótido único (SNPs) en el gen 5HT1R (5-hidroxitriptamina receptor1) y un SNP en el gen STAT (transductor de señal y activador de la transcripción). Sin embargo, el polimorfismo en el gen STAT resultó ser homocigoto en una población diferente utilizada para análisis de asociación. Los presentes análisis revelaron que el alelo C, en dos polimorfismos SNP (C109T y C395G) del gen 5HT1R, tiende a estar asociado con el aumento del peso corporal. Consideramos que hay necesidad de hacer nuevos estudios utilizando una muestra más amplia y diversa de la población en cuestión.

Short communication. Mutual pheromone antagonism in two sympatric corn borers, Sesamia nonagrioides and Ostrinia nubilalis, under field conditions

In previous studies, we demonstrated cross-antagonism in pheromone perception between pheromone componentsof the two corn (Zea mays L.) borers Sesamia nonagrioides Lefèbvre (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) and Ostrinia nubilalis (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) in the laboratory and in the field. The two pheromone components identified as responsible for this cross-antagonism were Z 11-16:Ald, a minor component of S. nonagrioides pheromone, and Z 11-14:Ac, the main component of the pheromone of the Z-strain of O. nubilalis, which inhibited the response of O. nubilalis and S. nonagrioides, respectively. Here, we study this antagonism phenomenon in the field by air permeation of maize plots with each of the two components separately and measurement of mating in caged couples of the two corn borers on treated and untreated plots during three years. A significant reduction in mating rates was observed on the permeated plots: 7% for S. nonagrioides and 12% for O. nubilalis. When dispenser charges (200 ng) were increased by 50% and 75% in the third year, no decrease in mating rates was recorded at either of the increased concentrations. On the other hand, the use of large cages resulted in an increase of 8% to 12% in the percentage of unmated females in each of the two corn borers suggesting that at more realistic field corn borer densities, 0,1 couples/plant instead of the 2 couples/plant used in this experiment, cross-antagonism in the two corn borers could be higher than that recorded in small cages.

Short communication. Potential to mitigate anthropogenic CO2 emissions by tillage reduction in dryland soils of Spain

Spain is one of the countries with the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions within the EU-27. Consequently, mitigation strategies need to be reported and quantified to accomplish the goals and requirements of the Kyoto Protocol. In this study, a first estimation of the carbon (C) mitigation potential of tillage reduction in Mediterranean rainfed Spain is presented. Results from eight studies carried out in Spain under rainfed agriculture to investigate the effects of no-tillage (NT) and reduced tillage (RT) compared with conventional tillage (CT) on soil organic carbon (SOC) were used. For current land surface under conservation tillage, NT and RT are sequestering 0.14 and 0.08 Tg C yr-1, respectively. Those rates represent 1.1% and 0.6% of the total CO2 emissions generated from agricultural activities in Spain during 2006. Alternatively, in a hypothetical scenario where all the arable dryland was under either NT or RT management, SOC sequestration would be 2.18 and 0.72 Tg C yr-1 representing 17.4% and 5.8% of the total 2006 CO2 equivalent emissions generated from the agricultural sector in Spain. This is a significant estimate that would help to achieve GHG emissions targets for the current commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol.

Short-term effects of particulate matters on pulse pressure in two general population studies.

OBJECTIVES: To explore the association of short-term exposure to particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters less than 10 μm (PM10) with pulse pressure, SBP, and DBP taking outdoor temperature into account in two large population-based studies in Switzerland. METHODS: We used data from the Bus Santé study including 5605 adults in Geneva and the CoLaus study including 6183 adults in Lausanne. PM10 and meteorological data were measured from fixed monitoring stations. We analyzed the association of short-term exposure to PM10 (on the day of examination visit and up to 7 days before) with pulse pressure, SBP, and DBP by linear regression, controlling for potential confounders and effect modifiers. RESULTS: Average PM10 levels were 22.4 μg/m in Geneva and 31.7 μg/m in Lausanne. In adjusted models, for each 10 μg/m increase in 7-day PM10 average, pulse pressure and SBP increased by 0.583 (95% confidence interval, 0.296-0.870) mmHg and 0.490 (0.056-0.925) mmHg in Geneva, and 0.183 (0.017-0.348) mmHg and 0.036 (0.042-0.561) mmHg in Lausanne, respectively. Stronger associations of pulse pressure and SBP with PM10 were observed when outdoor temperature was above 5°C. CONCLUSION: Positive associations of pulse pressure and SBP with short-term exposure to PM10 were found and replicated in the Swiss adult population. Our results suggest that even low levels of air pollution may substantially impact cardiovascular risk in the general population.

Cognitive Predictors and Risk Factors of PTSD Following Stillbirth: A Short-Term Longitudinal Study.

This short-term longitudinal study investigated cognitive predictors and risk factors of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in mothers following stillbirth. After a stillbirth at ≥ 24 weeks gestational age, 65 women completed structured clinical interviews and questionnaires assessing PTSD symptoms, cognitive predictors (appraisals, dysfunctional strategies), and risk factors (perceived social support, trauma history, obstetric history) at 3 and 6 months. PTSD symptoms decreased between 3 and 6 months (Cohen's d ranged .34-.52). Regression analyses also revealed a specific positive relationship between Rumination and concurrent frequency of PTSD symptoms (β = .45). Negative Self-View and Negative World-View related positively and Self-Blame related negatively to concurrent number of PTSD symptoms (β = .48, .44, -.45, respectively). Suppression and Distraction predicted a decrease and Numbing predicted an increase in time-lagged number of PTSD symptoms (β = -.33, -.28, .30, respectively). Risk factors for PTSD symptoms were younger age (β = -.25), lower income (β = -.29), fewer previous pregnancies (β = -.31), and poorer perceived social support (β = -.26). Interventions addressing negative appraisals, dysfunctional strategies, and social support are recommended for mothers with PTSD following stillbirth. Knowledge of cognitive predictors and risk factors of PTSD may inform the development of a screening instrument.

The offspring of the diabetic mother--short- and long-term implications.

In the 1980s, David Barker and Colleagues proposed that the major causes of cardiovascular and metabolic diseases have their roots in early development. There is now robust evidence that an hyperglycemic intrauterine environment is responsible not only for significant short-term morbidity in the fetus and the neonate but also for an increased risk of developing diabetes as well as other chronic, noncommunicable diseases at adulthood. The risk is higher in pregestational diabetes, but unrecognized and/or poorly managed gestational diabetes (GDM) may have similar consequences. Although a relatively clear picture of the pathogenesis of the fetal and neonatal complications of maternal diabetes and of their interrelationship is available today, the intimate molecular mechanisms involved in the long term are far from being understood. While the rate of GDM is sharply increasing in association with the pandemic of obesity and of type 2 diabetes over the world, we review here the current understanding of short- and long-term outcomes of fetuses exposed to a diabetic environment.

Short communication.Wood identification based on their common name and their transversal surface anatomy. Application to the batch from the expedition of Ruiz and Pavon

Aim of study: To identify species of wood samples based on common names and anatomical analyses of their transversal surfaces (without microscopic preparations). Area of study: Spain and South America Material and methods: The test was carried out on a batch of 15 lumber samples deposited in the Royal Botanical Garden in Madrid, from the expedition by Ruiz and Pavon (1777-1811). The first stage of the methodology is to search and to make a critical analysis of the databases which list common nomenclature along with scientific nomenclature. A geographic filter was then applied to the information resulting from the samples with a more restricted distribution. Finally an anatomical verification was carried out with a pocket microscope with a magnification of x40, equipped with a 50 micrometers resolution scale. Main results: The identification of the wood based exclusively on the common name is not useful due to the high number of alternative possibilities (14 for “naranjo”, 10 for “ébano”, etc.). The common name of one of the samples (“huachapelí mulato”) enabled the geographic origin of the samples to be accurately located to the shipyard area in Guayaquil (Ecuador). Given that Ruiz y Pavon did not travel to Ecuador, the specimens must have been obtained by Tafalla. It was possible to determine correctly 67% of the lumber samples from the batch. In 17% of the cases the methodology did not provide a reliable identification. Research highlights: It was possible to determine correctly 67% of the lumber samples from the batch and their geographic provenance. The identification of the wood based exclusively on the common name is not useful.

Valamo a short handbook for travellers - [Front cover]

Helsinki : The Finnish Tourist Association 1926