Social cohesion in Europe after the crisis

In the last few years, Europe has been forced to re-think its socio-economic model. Social indicators speak for themselves. Real household income declined significantly between 2008 and 2012, employment rates are lower and the number of people in poverty saw a steady rise with a growing divergence between EU countries. In the eurozone, cuts in public spending and internal devaluation have been the main tools to aim at a correction of unsustainable fiscal positions and a strengthening of competitiveness. It has carried a heavy social price tag. Outside of the eurozone, austerity has also been the prevailing policy, seen as inevitable to avoid economic instability. The crisis has not hit everyone equally. The general losses have been high, but there have also been some quite important redistributive effects. With all the difficulties of defining and measuring 'fairness', it is clear that the adjustment has not been equitable. Apart from issues of market failure, there have been direct increases of inequality within each of the member states. Higher poverty rates have been observed, rises in inequalities between higher and lower income earners as well as intergenerational inequalities between age groups. Long-term consequences are only beginning to surface in the public debate as the most immediate pressures of the crisis are slowly overcome. In this report, the authors first of all look at the results of the survey we have carried out in seven European countries and review perceptions of the socio-economic model. Subsequently, they assess the importance of the social dimension in the broader context of the European growth model. The authors discuss the impact of the structural challenges of globalisation, demography and technological change. They then review the EU’s performance in the crisis. Finally, the authors make a number of recommendations on how to bridge the gap between Europeans‘ expectations and reality.

Euro 2012 – Ukraine’s wasted opportunity? OSW Commentary 80, 2012-06.08

Ukraine saw hosting the European Football Championship as an important project in terms of image-building and modernisation from the very beginning. The country’s government assumed, during the presidency of Viktor Yushchenko and Viktor Yanukovych alike, that Euro 2012 would provide a major impulse for economic development and show that the young Ukrainian state was capable of successfully preparing one of the most important sport tournaments in the world. Although UEFA’s decision raised eyebrows both in the West and in Ukraine, after initial delays the work gained momentum and, shortly before the championship, Ukraine’s progress could be evaluated as being satisfactory at the least. As part of the preparations, four stadiums were built or modernised, four airports in the host cities were developed and 1,600 km of roads were repaired or built from the ground up. The investments have doubtlessly contributed to an improvement of the infrastructure in Ukraine, but it would be rather inaccurate to say that Euro 2012 has brought about a real modernisation of the country. The funds allocated for the preparations were relatively modest, and part of them was spent in a non-transparent way, which gives rise to suspicions of corruption. The chance to improve Ukraine’s perception in the West has been to a great extent lost due to the trial of the former prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, who was sentenced to seven years in prison in October 2011. Over the past few weeks, Euro 2012 as a sports event has been overshadowed by discussions among Western politicians and in the Western media about rising authoritarian tendencies in Ukraine. In turn, football is currently treated as a minor issue in Ukraine’s internal politics. The government has so far not used Euro 2012 to improve its popularity although hosting it is supported by a clear majority of the Ukrainian public. It is still an open question as to whether the Ukrainian government will try to capitalise politically on this sports event; this is especially significant as parliamentary elections are approaching.

The Russian economy under Putin: Growth factors and impediments to economic development. OSW Study 20/2005

After a dramatic economic decline after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the financial breakdown of 1998, the Russian economy has begun to emerge from its deep crisis. The years 1999-2004 were a period of dynamic development in all sectors of Russian economy, and saw a rapid growth in GDP of over 7 per cent per year. Russia owed the excellent macroeconomic results of that period to a combination of favourable factors. The key factors were: high hydrocarbon prices on the global markets; an increase in Russia's international competitiveness thanks to the "rouble devaluation effect" (following the 1998 financial crash); and the market reforms carried out within that period. In 2004, despite very high oil and gas prices on world markets, a slowdown of the GDP growth took place. Even though the economy is still developing fairly rapidly, we are able to say that Russia is exhausting those traditional mechanisms (apart from oil and gas prices) which have hitherto stimulated GDP growth. Moreover, there are no new mechanisms which could replace the old ones. In the longer term, these unsolved structural problems may seriously impede Russia's economic growth.

War Crimes and Shifting Borders in the Middle East. CEPS Essay No. 14, 11 September 2014

The summer of 2014 saw an explosion of violence in the Middle East: Israel delivered a sledgehammer blow against Gaza, Lebanon was again the scene of terrorist onslaught, and the relentless war in Syria pushed the numbers of casualties and displaced people to record highs. In terms of geopolitical change, however, the advance of the ‘Islamic State’ and the emergence of a de facto independent Iraqi Kurdistan are the most important recent developments in the region. Common to all these conflicts are the levels of barbarity involved in this struggle for a place in the region’s security order.

Kyrgyzstan: Balancing on the Verge of Stability. EUCAM Policy Brief No. 19, July 2011

Following the ‘revolution’ in April 2010, the subsequent interethnic violence in June and the recent international inquiry into these events, Kyrgyzstan is not in safe waters yet. The coming period leading up to the Presidential elections will be important for the country’s stability. What is the current situation in the South of the country, which saw clashes between Kyrgyz and Uzbeks, and what are the expectations for the presidential elections? Is Kyrgyzstan on the road to democracy, and what role can external actors play?

Performance Indicators in Agricultural Financial Markets. Factor Markets Working Document No. 43, May 2013

This study attempts to develop performance indicators for the financial markets based on the findings in an earlier Factor Markets Working Paper (No. 33, “Agricultural credit market institutions: A comparison of selected European countries”) and on FADN (Farm Accountancy Data Network) data. Two indicators were developed. One measured the long-term economic sustainability of agricultural firms since the financial characteristics of the firms were perceived as important factors when rejecting a loan applicant. If the indicator works, it should show that a low value in this indicator is related to the performance in the financial markets. The second indicator was the loan-to-value (LTV), or debt-to-asset ratio, the reasoning behind this indicator is that low values can point to credit constraints, and in WP 33 we saw that the interviewed experts expected LTVs to be much higher than what is actually the case. We find that the first indicator can’t be used to measure the performance of the financial institutions, since we can’t show any relationship between the indicator and activities in the financial markets. However, the indicator is valuable for its measurement of the long-term financial sustainability of the agricultural sector, or of the firms. The loan-to-value indicator does imply that most countries would have room to increase the credit.

‘The oil friendship’: the state of and prospects for Russian-Chinese energy cooperation. OSW Commentary NUMBER 197|17.02.2016

The oil sector has been the major element of Russian-Chinese energy cooperation. The years 2013–2015 saw a significant increase in the volume of crude oil exported by Russia. In 2015, China became the main importer of Russian oil; Russia became the second largest supplier of oil to the Chinese market, after Saudi Arabia. From Beijing’s perspective, supplies of Russian oil are of strategic importance because the main supply routes are overland routes. Russia, for its part, is interested in boosting its export because of its deteriorating position on the European market, which hitherto has been considered a strategic market.

How to get out of the crisis without reforms? The Belarusian authorities confront growing economic problems. OSW Commentary NUMBER 202/21.03.2016

2015 saw a drop in Belarus’s GDP for the first time in almost 20 years, which is primarily the result of a significant reduction in levels of production and export. As a consequence, there was also a serious depletion of the country’s foreign exchange reserves, as well as a progressive weakening of the Belarusian rouble. The macroeconomic figures from January and February 2016 show that these trends are not only continuing, but they are also becoming even more severe, which confirms that Belarus now finds itself in a prolonged economic crisis. On one hand, the reason for this state of affairs is the protracted economic recession in Russia, which is Belarus’s main economic partner, together with the drastic global decline in prices for fuel, which is a key Belarusian export. On the other hand, meanwhile, an equally important reason for the current crisis is the failure of the Belarusian economic model. President Aleksandr Lukashenko, out of fear that his authoritarian system of government will be dismantled and that public discontent will rise, has categorically rejected the proposals for even partial reforms put forward by some of his entourage, who are aware of the need for the immediate transformation of the country’s anachronistic and very costly economic model, based as it still is on quasi-Soviet management policies.

20 years of the European single market: growth effects of EU integration. Policy Brief #2014/02

The ongoing European integration has increased the economic growth of participating national economies. Calculating the cumulative gains in the real gross domestic product per capita resulting from the integration of Europe between 1992 and 2012, every national economy under consideration realized income gains from the European integration. Denmark and Germany saw the greatest gains per resident. If the values from only 1992 and 2012 are compared, every country except for Greece has been able to achieve a higher per capita income due to the European integration.

Reiki como terapia não convencional: conhecimentos dos enfermeiros

Enquadramento: O interesse pelas Terapias Não Convencionais (TNC) teve um grande desenvolvimento no início deste século. O Reiki é uma terapia realizada através da colocação das mãos em pontos específicos do corpo e que utiliza a transferência de energia para proporcionar um bem-estar natural. A Enfermagem em especial a de Reabilitação, também apresenta dentro das suas intervenções específicas, uma vertente essencial baseada no toque à pessoa a quem presta cuidados, sendo por isso importante possuir conhecimentos sobre estas técnicas. Objetivos: Avaliar os conhecimentos dos enfermeiros acerca do Reiki e identificar fatores determinantes nesse conhecimento. Métodos: Trata-se de um estudo transversal, descritivo e correlacional, realizado numa amostra de 49 enfermeiros a exercer funções em instituições da região centro do país, baseado num questionário de conhecimentos elaborado pelas investigadoras. Resultados: Constatamos que os conhecimentos globais dos enfermeiros sobre o Reiki eram para 59,1% razoáveis, para 38,6% altos e apenas 2,3% apresentava baixos conhecimentos. Pudemos verificar diferenças estatisticamente significativas entre o “Conhecimento Total”, e as variáveis “ter iniciação em Reiki” e “ter recebido tratamento com Reiki” para o grupo de enfermeiros dos Cuidados Diferenciados (CD). Encontraram-se diferenças estatisticamente significativas, também, entre a dimensão “Conceito e História” e grupos etários, habilitações literárias, categoria profissional e tempo de serviço para os enfermeiros a exercer nos CD. Conclusão: Os conhecimentos dos enfermeiros sobre o Reiki são bastante significativos, sendo estes claramente superiores no grupo que exerce funções em CD. Por outro lado encontrámos fatores que interferem na determinação desses conhecimentos e que por isso importa controlar. Palavras-chave: Reiki; Enfermagem; Conhecimentos.

(Table T1) Ice rafted debris characteristics of ODP Site 177-1092

We have carried out a multiphase analysis of samples from ODP Site 177-1092, Meteor Rise, subantarctic South Atlantic. Samples were analyzed for ice-rafted debris (IRD [see Table T1]) and stable isotopes from benthic foraminifera [see Murphy et al., 2002, doi:10.1016/S0031-0182(01)00495-3]. Both analyses were performed on the same samples. Additional work was performed to identify the paleomagnetic stratigraphy. The analyzed samples range in age from about 2.6(?) Ma to 4.6 Ma, a time span that saw considerable global warmth, but witnessed overall global refrigeration and the transition to truly bipolar glaciations. IRD arrived frequently during the Early and early Late Pliocene, but only as 'background rafting' (occasional grains per sample). The first identifiable IRD above background rafting is associated with marine isotope stage (MIS) KM4 (~3.18 Ma). Successive IRD peaks become larger, the same pattern as noted at nearby Site 114-704. A very large peak near the top of the record, approximately 2.8 Ma, is considered to represent a hiatus. Peaks below 51.3 meters composite depth (mcd) coincide with positive excursions of the oxygen isotopic record, and with negative excursions of the carbon isotopic curve, a pattern also noted at Site 114-704. However, the reasonably large IRD peak at 51 mcd (tentatively identified with MIS G11) coincides with a positive excursion on the carbon isotopic curve and negative excursion on the oxygen isotopic curve. This relationship suggests a northern hemisphere interglacial, rising sea level, destabilization of the Antarctic margin, and delivery of Antarctic icebergs to the Southern Ocean. Such a mechanism has recently been suggested by Kanfoush et al. (2000, doi:10.1126/science.288.5472.1815) for latest Pleistocene stadial/interstadial oscillations. Here we suggest that such a mechanism may have been in place on glacial/interglacial time scales as early as the Late Pliocene.

Sea-surface temperature reconstruction in the Southwest Pacific

Uniquely in the Southern Hemisphere the New Zealand micro-continent spans the interface between a subtropical gyre and the Subantarctic Circumpolar Current. Its 20° latitudinal extent includes a complex of submerged plateaux, ridges, saddles and basins which, in the present interglacial, are partial barriers to circulation and steer the Subtropical (STF) and Subantarctic (SAF) fronts. This configuration offers a singular opportunity to assess the influence of bottom topography on oceanic circulation through Pleistocene glacial - interglacial (G/I) cycles, its effect on the location and strength of the fronts, and its ability to generate significant differences in mixed layer thermal history over short distances. For this study we use new planktic foraminiferal based sea-surface temperature (SST) estimates spanning the past 1 million years from a latitudinal transect of four deep ocean drilling sites. We conclude that: 1. the effect of the New Zealand landmass was to deflect the water masses south around the bathymetric impediments; 2. the effect of a shallow submerged ridge on the down-current side (Chatham Rise), was to dynamically trap the STF along its crest, in stark contrast to the usual glacial-interglacial (G-I) meridional migration that occurs in the open ocean; 3. the effect of more deeply submerged, downstream plateaux (Campbell, Bounty) was to dynamically trap the SAF along its steep southeastern margin; 4. the effects of saddles across the submarine plateaux was to facilitate the development of jets of subtropical and subantarctic surface water through the fronts, forming localized downstream gyres or eddies during different phases in the G-I climate cycles; 5. the deep Pukaki Saddle across the Campbell-Bounty Plateaux guided a branch of the SAF to flow northwards during each glacial, to form a strong gyre of circumpolar surface water in the Bounty Trough, especially during the mid-Pleistocene Climate Transition (MIS 22-16) when exceptionally high SST gradients existed across the STF; 6. the shallower Mernoo Saddle, at the western end of the Chatham Rise, provided a conduit for subtropical water to jet southwards across the STF in the warmest interglacial peaks (MIS 11, 5.5) and for subantarctic water to flow northwards during glacials; 7. although subtropical or subantarctic drivers can prevail at a particular phase of a G-I cycles, it appears that the Antarctic Circumpolar Current is the main influence on the regional hydrography. Thus complex submarine topography can affect distinct differences in the climate records over short distances with implications for using such records in interpreting global or regional trends. Conversely, the local topography can amplify the paleoclimate record in different ways in different places, thus enhancing its value for the study of more minor paleoceanographic influences that elsewhere are more difficult to detect. Such sites include DSDP 594, which like some other Southern Ocean sites, has the typical late Pleistocene asymmetrical saw-tooth G-I climate pattern transformed to a gap-tooth pattern of quasi-symmetrical interglacial spikes that interrupt extended periods of minimum glacial temperatures.

A high-resolution Lateglacial and Holocene palaeoceanographic record from the Greenland Sea

We present an unprecedented multicentennial sediment record from the foot of Vesterisbanken Seamount, central Greenland Sea, covering the past 22.3 thousand years (ka). Based on planktic foraminiferal total abundances, species assemblages, and stable oxygen and carbon isotopes, the palaeoenvironments in this region of modern deepwater renewal were reconstructed. Results show that during the Last Glacial Maximum the area was affected by harsh polar conditions with only episodic improvements during warm summer seasons. Since 18?ka extreme freshwater discharges from nearby sources occurred, influencing the surface water environment. The last major freshwater event took place during the Younger Dryas. The onset of the Holocene was characterized by an improvement of environmental conditions suggesting warming and increasing ventilation of the upper water layers. The early Holocene saw a stronger Atlantic waters advection to the area, which began around 10.5 and ended quite rapidly at 5.5?ka, followed by the onset of Neoglacial cooling. Surface water ventilation reached a maximum in the middle Holocene. Around 3?ka the surface water stratification increased leading to subsequent amplification of the warming induced the North Atlantic Oscillation at 2?ka.