Protesting or justifying? A latent class model for contingent valuation with attitudinal data

This article develops a latent class model for estimating willingness-to-pay for public goods using simultaneously contingent valuation (CV) and attitudinal data capturing protest attitudes related to the lack of trust in public institutions providing those goods. A measure of the social cost associated with protest responses and the consequent loss in potential contributions for providing the public good is proposed. The presence of potential justification biases is further considered, that is, the possibility that for psychological reasons the response to the CV question affects the answers to the attitudinal questions. The results from our empirical application suggest that psychological factors should not be ignored in CV estimation for policy purposes, allowing for a correct identification of protest responses.

Valuation of marine and coastal ecosystems: The role of ecological-economic modeling

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Credit risk of financial institutions

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Risk factors for Leishmania chagasi infection in an urban area of Minas Gerais State

In order to understand the determinants of human infection by Leishmania chagasi in an urban area, a cross-sectional population based study was conducted using molecular and serologic methods to identify infection. Participants were interviewed using a pre-coded questionnaire. Two criteria were tested to identify risk factors: Model 1- including all participants positive in hybridization by Leishmania donovani complex probe; Model 2- including all participants positive for hybridization and at least one serologic test. In Model 1, the variables associated with infection were: ownership of birds, time spent outside house between 6:00-10:00 PM and garbage not collected. In Model 2, the variables associated with infection were: family with knowledge of the vector, garbage not collected, garbage not removed or buried, ownership of birds and eroded areas in the neighborhood. The risk factors identified were associated with household conditions, presence of animals and the likelihood of contact with phlebotomine sandflies.

Development of an integrative approach for the characterization of ecological risk on marine transition ecosystems: the Sado Estuary as a case study

Estuaries and other transitional waters are complex ecosystems critically important as nursery and shelter areas for organisms. Also, humans depend on estuaries for multiple socio-economical activities such as urbanism, tourism, heavy industry, (taking advantage of shipping), fisheries and aquaculture, the development of which led to strong historical pressures, with emphasis on pollution. The degradation of estuarine environmental quality implies ecologic, economic and social prejudice, hence the importance of evaluating environmental quality through the identification of stressors and impacts. The Sado Estuary (SW Portugal) holds the characteristics of industrialized estuaries, which results in multiple adverse impacts. Still, it has recently been considered moderately contaminated. In fact, many studies were conducted in the past few years, albeit scattered due to the absence of true biomonitoring programmes. As such, there is a need to integrate the information, in order to obtain a holistic perspective of the area able to assist management and decision-making. As such, a geographical information system (GIS) was created based on sediment contamination and biomarker data collected from a decade-long time-series of publications. Four impacted and a reference areas were identified, characterized by distinct sediment contamination patterns related to different hot spots and diffuse sources of toxicants. The potential risk of sediment-bound toxicants was determined by contrasting the levels of pollutants with available sediment quality guidelines, followed by their integration through the Sediment Quality guideline Quotient (SQG-Q). The SQG-Q estimates per toxicant or class was then subjected to georreferencing and statistical analyses between the five distinct areas and seasons. Biomarker responses were integrated through the Biomarkers Consistency Indice and georreferenced as well through GIS. Overall, in spite of the multiple biological traits surveyed, the biomarker data (from several organisms) are accordant with sediment contamination. The most impacted areas were the shipyard area and adjacent industrial belt, followed by urban and agricultural grounds. It is evident that the estuary, although globally moderately impacted, is very heterogeneous and affected by a cocktail of contaminants, especially metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon. Although elements (like copper, zinc and even arsenic) may originate from the geology of the hydrographic basin of the Sado River, the majority of the remaining contaminants results from human activities. The present work revealed that the estuary should be divided into distinct biogeographic units, in order to implement effective measures to safeguard environmental quality.

Tuberculosis incidence and risk factors among patients living with HIV/AIDS in public health service institutions in Brasilia, Federal District

In order to estimate the incidence of and risk factors for developing tuberculosis, the clinical charts of a retrospective cohort of 281 HIV-positive adults, who were notified to the AIDS Program of the Health Department of Brasilia in 1998, were reviewed in 2003. All the patients were treatment-naive regarding antiretroviral therapy at the time of inclusion in the cohort. Twenty-nine patients were identified as having tuberculosis at the start of the study. Thirteen incident tuberculosis cases were identified during the 60 months of follow-up, with an incidence density rate of 1.24/100 person-years. Tuberculosis incidence was highest among patients with baseline CD4+ T-lymphocyte counts < 200 cells/µl who were not using antiretroviral therapy (incidence = 5.47; 95% CI = 2.73 to 10.94). Multivariate analysis showed that baseline CD4+ T-lymphocyte counts < 200 cells/µl (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] = 5.09; 95% CI = 1.27 to 20.37; p = 0.02) and non-use of antiretroviral therapy (AHR = 12.17; 95% CI = 2.6 to 56.90; p = 0.001) were independently associated with increased risk of tuberculosis.

Mother-child transmission of Chagas disease: could coinfection with human immunodeficiency virus increase the risk?

A study was conducted on all newborns from mothers with Chagas disease who were attended at Hospital Donación F. Santojanni between January 1, 2001, and August 31, 2007. Each child was investigated for the presence of Trypanosoma cruzi parasitemia through direct examination of blood under the microscope using the buffy coat method on three occasions during the first six months of life. Serological tests were then performed. Ninety-four children born to mothers infected with Trypanosoma cruzi were attended over the study period. Three of these children were born to mothers coinfected with the human immunodeficiency virus. Vertical transmission of Chagas disease was diagnosed in 13 children, in all cases by identifying parasitemia. The overall Chagas disease transmission rate was 13.8% (13/94). It was 100% (3/3) among the children born to mothers with HIV infection and 10.9% (10/91) among children born to mothers without HIV [Difference = 0.89; CI95 = 0.82-0.95; p = 0.0021]. We concluded that coinfection with HIV could increase the risk of vertical transmission of Chagas disease.

Is an increased body mass index associated with a risk of cutaneous leishmaniasis?

All adults (n = 334) living in Brejo do Mutambal, an endemic area for cutaneous leishmaniasis, were included in this study. Contrary to our initial hypothesis, it was observed that men (23.7 ± 3.2 vs. 22.1 ± 2.6 kg/m²) and women (24.1 ± 4.7 vs. 22.5 ± 3.4 kg/m²) with cutaneous leishmaniasis presented higher body mass index than the controls.

Risk factors for physical disability at diagnosis of 19,283 new cases of leprosy

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this study was to evaluate risk factors for physical disability at the moment of leprosy diagnosis. METHODS: This is a retrospective, descriptive and exploratory investigation of 19,283 patients with leprosy, registered in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil, between 2000 and 2005. RESULTS: The risk of Grade 2 disability was 16.5-fold higher in patients with lepromatous leprosy, and 12.8-fold higher in patients presenting the borderline form, compared to patients presenting indeterminate leprosy. The occurrence of more than one thickened nerve increased the odds of a patient developing Grade 2 disability, 8.4-fold. Age <15 years, multibacillary leprosy and no formal education presented 7.0, 5.7 and 5.6 odds of developing physical disability, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These factors should be considered as strong prognostic indicators in the development of physical disability at diagnosis.

Seroprevalence and risk factors for canine visceral leishmaniasis in the endemic area of Dias D'Ávila, State of Bahia, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an important zoonosis in relation to public health systems. Dogs are the main domestic reservoir. This study aimed to investigate occurrences of canine VL in Dias D'Ávila, State of Bahia, Brazil. METHODS: The prevalence was evaluated by means of clinical and laboratory tests on a population of 312 domestic dogs from 23 localities in this municipality, using indirect immunofluorescence and immunoenzymatic assays. RESULTS: Among the animals examined, 3.2% and 6.7% showed signs of VL, confirmed by indirect immunofluorescence and immunoenzymatic assays, respectively, with a distribution of 29.9% (24 dogs) in the rural zone and 4.9% (288 dogs) in the urban zone (p = 0.001). The clinical evaluation on seropositive dogs showed both asymptomatic animals (2.4%) and symptomatic animals (47.6%), along with other abnormalities (e.g. normocytic and normochromic anemia, with leukocytosis and thrombocytopenia). Observations relating to phenotypic characteristics (e.g. sex, age, breed and hair) did not present statistical significance, although high seropositivity among male, short-haired and mixed-breed dogs was observed. CONCLUSIONS: The findings showed that VL was a predominantly rural zoonosis and that close contact between poultry and domestic dogs significantly increased the risk of canine infection in this region.

Enhancement of an implemented rating model and impact on existing risk management processes: A hands-on approach from financial supplier risk management within the automotive industry

The purpose of this paper is to conduct a methodical drawback analysis of a financial supplier risk management approach which is currently implemented in the automotive industry. Based on identified methodical flaws, the risk assessment model is further developed by introducing a malus system which incorporates hidden risks into the model and by revising the derivation of the most central risk measure in the current model. Both methodical changes lead to significant enhancements in terms of risk assessment accuracy, supplier identification and workload efficiency.

Occurrence and risk factors associated with infection by Toxoplasma gondii in goats in the State of Alagoas, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Goats are considered very susceptible to infection by Toxoplasma gondii and when this occurs during pregnancy, it may cause fetal death with subsequent fetal resorption, abortion, mummification, stillborn or the birth of weak goats. The objective of this work was to determine the occurrence of and identify risk factors for T. gondii infection in goats in different mesoregions in the State of Alagoas. METHODS: The research was conducted on 24 goat breeding farms in 10 municipalities. A total of 454 blood samples were examined for anti-T. gondii antibodies by indirect immunofluorescence antibody test. To evaluate the risk factors of toxoplasmosis in goats, questionnaires were applied analyzing the farm's production system and nutritional, reproductive and sanitary management. RESULTS: Disease occurrence was 39% with 95.8% of farms presenting seropositive animals. Significant associations were observed for mesoregion (OR = 0.23; 95%CI = 0.09 - 0.57), age (OR = 0.36; 95%CI = 0.20 - 0.64), semi-intensive herd management (OR = 8.70; 95%CI = 1.87 - 40.43), access of cats to water provided for goats (OR = 3.38; 95%CI = 1.89-6.02) and cats feeding on placental remnants (OR = 2.73; 95%CI = 1.38 - 5.40). CONCLUSIONS: Toxoplasma gondii infection is disseminated in the State of Alagoas and the adoption of a program that monitors infection foci is required to reduce the risk factors identified in the present study.

Co-infection and risk factors of tuberculosis in a Mexican HIV+ population

INTRODUCTION: The situation of tuberculosis (TB) is being modified by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), which is increasing the occurrence of new cases and the generation of drug resistant strains, affecting not only the people infected with HIV, but also their close contacts and the general population, conforming a serious public health concern. However, the magnitudes of the factors associated to this co-infection differ considerably in relation to the population groups and geographical areas. METHODS: In order to evaluate the prevalence and risk factors for the co-infection of tuberculosis (TB) in a population with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV+) in the Southeast of Mexico, we made the analysis of clinical and epidemiological variables and the diagnosis of tuberculosis by isolation of mycobacteria from respiratory samples. RESULTS: From the 147 HIV+ individuals analyzed, 12 were culture positive; this shows a prevalence of 8% for the co-infection. The only variable found with statistical significance for the co-infection was the number of CD4-T < 200 cells/mm³, OR 13 (95%, CI 2-106 vs 12-109). CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge this is the first report describing the factors associated with tuberculosis co -infection with HIV in a population from Southern Mexico. The low number of CD4 T-cells was the only variable associated with the TB co-infection and the rest of the variables provide scenarios that require specific and particular interventions for this population group.

Dengue: clinical forms and risk groups in a high incidence city in the southeastern region of Brazil

INTRODUCTION: The article describes the epidemiologic profile of dengue cases in Vitória, the capital of Espírito Santo, Brazil, from 2000 to 2009, aimed at identifying risk groups regarding the incidence and severity of the disease. METHODS: Confirmed cases of dengue among city residents during ten years were classified as dengue fever, dengue hemorrhagic fever, dengue shock syndrome and dengue with complications, and analyzed according to sex, age, race-color and education. RESULTS: The proportion of dengue cases was highest among women aged 20 to 29 years-old and similar between whites and blacks. A gradual decrease occurred in the percentage of dengue cases in the population aged 15 years-old or more, in the historical series of 10 years, and a growing increase in individuals less than 15 years-old, showing statistical significance. The fatality rate ranged from zero to 0.3% for all forms of dengue and from 0.2% to 18.2% for severe forms. CONCLUSIONS: The profile of those affected by the disease in the municipality is similar to those affected in Brazil. The increasing number of cases in individuals under 15 years-old corroborates the results of recent studies in other Brazilian municipalities.

Epidemiological factors related to the transmission risk of Trypanosoma cruzi in a Quilombola community, State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: This work was an epidemiological investigation of the risk of Trypanosoma cruzi transmission in the rural Quilombola community of Furnas do Dionízio, State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. METHODS: Of the 71 animals examined, seven were captured (two opossums, Didelphis albiventris; four rats, Rattus rattus; and one nine-banded armadillo, Dasypus novemcinctus) and 64 were domestic (one canine, Canis familiaris; five pigs, Sus scrofa; two bovines, Bos taurus; five caprines, Capra sp.; and 51 ovines, Ovis aries). Parasitological tests were performed to detect parasites in the blood and to identify the morphology of flagellates. These methods included fresh examinations, buffy coat tests and blood cultures. Molecular analysis of DNA for identification of trypanosomatids was performed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) with primers S35 and S36. RESULTS: The parasitological tests showed flagellates in an opossum and two cattle. The molecular tests showed DNA from T. cruzi in an opossum and a pig. Triatoma sordida was the only triatomine species found in the community, and it colonized households (four specimens) and the surrounding areas (124 specimens). Twenty-three specimens tested positive for flagellates, which were subsequently identified as T. cruzi by PCR. CONCLUSIONS: Data analysis demonstrated that T. cruzi has a peridomestic life cycle that involves both domestic and wild mammals.