Analysis of the nearshore wave energy resource

Earlier studies have indicated that the gross nearshore wave energy resource is significantly smaller than the gross offshore wave energy resource implying that the deployment of wave energy converters in the nearshore is unlikely to be economic. However, it is argued that the gross wave energy resource is not an appropriate measure for determining the productivity of a wave farm and an alternative measure, the exploitable wave energy resource, is proposed. Calculation of a site's potential using the exploitable wave energy resource is considered superior because it accounts for the directional distribution of the incident waves and the wave energy plant rating that limits the power capture in highly energetic sea-states. A third-generation spectral wave model is used to model the wave transformation from deep water to a nearshore site in a water depth of 10 m. It is shown that energy losses result in a reduction of less than 10% of the net incident wave power. Annual wave data for the North Atlantic coast of Scotland is analysed and indicates that whilst the gross wave energy resource has reduced significantly by the 10 m depth contour, the exploitable wave energy resource is reduced by 7 and 22% for the two sites analysed. This limited reduction in exploitable wave energy resource means that for many exposed coasts, nearshore sites offer similar potential for exploitation of the wave energy resource as offshore sites.

Cue Competition Effects and Young Children's Causal and Counterfactual Inferences

The authors examined cue competition effects in young children using the blicket detector paradigm, in which objects are placed either singly or in pairs on a novel machine and children must judge which objects have the causal power to make the machine work. Cue competition effects were found in a 5- to 6-year-old group but not in a 4-year-old group. Equivalent levels of forward and backward blocking were found in the former group. Children's counterfactual judgments were subsequently examined by asking whether or not the machine would have gone off in the absence of I of 2 objects that had been placed on it as a pair. Cue competition effects were demonstrated only in 5- to 6-year-olds using this mode of assessing causal reasoning.

Horowitz’s Theory of Ethnic Party Competition and the Case of the SDLP, 1970-79

Donald Horowitz's theory of ethnic conflict suggests that a political party operating in a deeply divided society can be effected by a centrifugal pull even when it is not subject to formal electoral competition. This idea can be applied to Northern Ireland's SDLP in the 1970s, when the party faced no credible electoral rival within its primary political constituency. Doing so helps to explain why the SDLP failed in its original objective of mobilizing a cross-community constituency, and instead became what Horowitz terms an “ethnically based party,” representing the interests of only one side of the political divide in Northern Ireland.

Modelling Patient Duration of Stay to Facilitate Resource Management of Geriatric Hospitals

A fundamental aspect of health care management is the effective allocation of resources. This is of particular importance in geriatric hospitals where elderly patients tend to have more complex needs. Hospital managers would benefit immensely if they had advance knowledge of patient duration of stay in hospital. Managers could assess the costs of patient care and make allowances for these in their budget. In this paper, we tackle this important problem via a model which predicts the duration of stay distribution of patients in hospital. The approach uses phase-type distributions conditioned on a Bayesian belief network.