Solicitors disciplinary hearings in Queensland 1930-2000: a statistical analysis

This article reports on the results of a study undertaken by the author together with her research assistant, Heather Green. The study collected and analysed data from all disciplinary tribunal decisions heard in Queensland since 1930 in an attempt to provide empirical information which has previously been lacking. This article will outline the main features of the disciplinary system in Queensland, describe the research methodology used in the present study and then report on some findings from the study. Reported findings include a profile of solicitors who have appeared before a disciplinary hearing, the types of matters which have attracted formal discipline and the types of orders made by the tribunal. Much of the data is then presented on a time scale so as to reveal any changes over time.

Predicting coal ash slag flow characteristics (viscosity model for the Al2O3-CaO-'FeO'-SiO2 system)

A model has been developed which enables the viscosities of coal ash slags to be predicted as a function of composition and temperature under reducing conditions. The model describes both completely liquid and heterogeneous, i.e. partly crystallised, slags in the Al2O3-CaO-'FeO'-SiO2 system in equilibrium with metallic iron. The Urbain formalism has been modified to describe the viscosities of the liquid slag phase over the complete range of compositions and a wide range of temperatures. The computer package F * A * C * T was used to predict the proportions of solids and the compositions of the remaining liquid phases. The Roscoe equation has been used to describe the effect of presence of solid suspension (slurry effect) on the viscosity of partly crystallised slag systems. The model provides a good description of the experimental data of fully liquid, and liquid + solids mixtures, over the complete range of compositions and a wide range of temperatures. This model can now be used for viscosity predictions in industrial slag systems. Examples of the application of the new model to coal ash fluxing and blending are given in the paper. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A multi-purpose rainfall simulator for field infiltration and erosion studies

This paper describes a rainfall simulator developed for field and laboratory studies that gives great flexibility in plot size covered, that is highly portable and able to be used on steep slopes, and that is economical in its water use. The simulator uses Veejet 80100 nozzles mounted on a manifold, with the nozzles controlled to sweep to and from across a plot width of 1.5 m. Effective rainfall intensity is controlled by the frequency with which the nozzles sweep. Spatial uniformity of rainfall on the plots is high, with coefficients of variation (CV) on the body of the plot being 8-10%. Use of the simulator for erosion and infiltration measurements is discussed.

An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Genetic consequences of sequential founder events by an island-colonizing bird

The importance of founder events in promoting evolutionary changes on islands has been a subject of long-running controversy. Resolution of this debate has been hindered by a lack of empirical evidence from naturally founded island populations. Here we undertake a genetic analysis of a series of historically documented, natural colonization events by the silvereye species-complex (Zosterops lateralis), a group used to illustrate the process of island colonization in the original founder effect model. Our results indicate that single founder events do not affect levels of heterozygosity or allelic diversity, nor do they result in immediate genetic differentiation between populations. Instead, four to five successive founder events are required before indices of diversity and divergence approach that seen in evolutionarily old forms. A Bayesian analysis based on computer simulation allows inferences to be made on the number of effective founders and indicates that founder effects are weak because island populations are established from relatively large flocks. Indeed, statistical support for a founder event model was not significantly higher than for a gradual-drift model for all recently colonized islands. Taken together, these results suggest that single colonization events in this species complex are rarely accompanied by severe founder effects, and multiple founder events and/or long-term genetic drift have been of greater consequence for neutral genetic diversity.

Testing insect movement theory: empirical analysis of pest data routinely collected from agricultural crops

Observations of an insect's movement lead to theory on the insect's flight behaviour and the role of movement in the species' population dynamics. This theory leads to predictions of the way the population changes in time under different conditions. If a hypothesis on movement predicts a specific change in the population, then the hypothesis can be tested against observations of population change. Routine pest monitoring of agricultural crops provides a convenient source of data for studying movement into a region and among fields within a region. Examples of the use of statistical and computational methods for testing hypotheses with such data are presented. The types of questions that can be addressed with these methods and the limitations of pest monitoring data when used for this purpose are discussed. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Distribution kinetics of solutes in the isolated in-situ perfused rat head using the multiple indicator dilution technique and a physiological two-barrier model

The purpose of this study was to determine the pharmacokinetics of [C-14]diclofenac, [C-14]salicylate and [H-3]clonidine using a single pass rat head perfusion preparation. The head was perfused with 3-[N-morpholino] propane-sulfonic acid-buffered Ringer's solution. Tc-99m-red blood cells and a drug were injected in a bolus into the internal carotid artery and collected from the posterior facial vein over 28 min. A two-barrier stochastic organ model was used to estimate the statistical moments of the solutes. Plasma, interstitial and cellular distribution volumes for the solutes ranged from 1.0 mL (diclofenac) to 1.6 mL (salicylate), 2.0 mL (diclofenac) to 4.2 mL (water) and 3.9 mL (salicylate) to 20.9 mL (diclofenac), respectively. A comparison of these volumes to water indicated some exclusion of the drugs from the interstitial space and salicylate from the cellular space. Permeability-surface area (PS) products calculated from plasma to interstitial fluid permeation clearances (CLPI) (range 0.02-0.40 mL s(-1)) and fractions of solute unbound in the perfusate were in the order: diclofenac>salicylate >clonidine>sucrose (from 41.8 to 0.10 mL s(-1)). The slow efflux of diclofenac, compared with clonidine and salicylate, may be related to its low average unbound fraction in the cells. This work accounts for the tail of disposition curves in describing pharmacokinetics in the head.

Simulation of the load-unload response ratio and critical sensitivity in the lattice solid model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

A quantitative state and transition model for the Mitchell grasslands of central western Queensland

Concerns of reduced productivity and land degradation in the Mitchell grasslands of central western Queensland were addressed through a range monitoring program to interpret condition and trend. Botanical and eclaphic parameters were recorded along piosphere and grazing gradients, and across fenceline impact areas, to maximise changes resulting from grazing. The Degradation Gradient Method was used in conjunction with State and Transition Models to develop models of rangeland dynamics and condition. States were found to be ordered along a degradation gradient, indicator species developed according to rainfall trends and transitions determined from field data and available literature. Astrebla spp. abundance declined with declining range condition and increasing grazing pressure, while annual grasses and forbs increased in dominance under poor range condition. Soil erosion increased and litter decreased with decreasing range condition. An approach to quantitatively define states within a variable rainfall environment based upon a time-series ordination analysis is described. The derived model could provide the interpretive framework necessary to integrate on-ground monitoring, remote sensing and geographic information systems to trace states and transitions at the paddock scale. However, further work is needed to determine the full catalogue of states and transitions and to refine the model for application at the paddock scale.

Bridging the gap between different statistical approaches: An integrated framework for modelling

This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.

A mathematical model of recovery of dense medium magnetics in the wet drum magnetic separator

Loss of magnetic medium solids from dense medium circuits is a substantial contributor to operating cost. Much of this loss is by way of wet drum magnetic separator effluent. A model of the separator would be useful for process design, optimisation and control. A review of the literature established that although various rules of thumb exist, largely based on empirical or anecdotal evidence, there is no model of magnetics recovery in a wet drum magnetic separator which includes as inputs all significant machine and operating variables. A series of trials, in both factorial experiments and in single variable experiments, was therefore carried out using a purpose built rig which featured a small industrial scale (700 mm lip length, 900 mm diameter) wet drum magnetic separator. A substantial data set of 191 trials was generated in the work. The results of the factorial experiments were used to identify the variables having a significant effect on magnetics recovery. Observations carried out as an adjunct to this work, as well as magnetic theory, suggests that the capture of magnetic particles in the wet drum magnetic separator is by a flocculation process. Such a process should be defined by a flocculation rate and a flocculation time; the latter being defined by the volumetric flowrate and the volume within the separation zone. A model based on this concept and containing adjustable parameters was developed. This model was then fitted to a randomly chosen 80% of the data, and validated by application to the remaining 20%. The model is shown to provide a satisfactory fit to the data over three orders of magnitude of magnetics loss. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science BY. All rights reserved.

Modified logit life table system: Principles, empirical validation, and application

Despite its widespread use, the Coale-Demeny model life table system does not capture the extensive variation in age-specific mortality patterns observed in contemporary populations, particularly those of the countries of Eastern Europe and populations affected by HIV/AIDS. Although relational mortality models, such as the Brass logit system, can identify these variations, these models show systematic bias in their predictive ability as mortality levels depart from the standard. We propose a modification of the two-parameter Brass relational model. The modified model incorporates two additional age-specific correction factors (gamma(x), and theta(x)) based on mortality levels among children and adults, relative to the standard. Tests of predictive validity show deviations in age-specific mortality rates predicted by the proposed system to be 30-50 per cent lower than those predicted by the Coale-Demeny system and 15-40 per cent lower than those predicted using the original Brass system. The modified logit system is a two-parameter system, parameterized using values of l(5) and l(60).

Nitrogen fertilizer (15N) leaching in a central pivot fertigated coffee crop

Nitrogen has a complex dynamics in the soil-plant-atmosphere system. N fertilizers are subject to chemical and microbial transformations in soils that can result in significant losses. Considering the cost of fertilizers, the adoption of good management practices like fertigation could improve the N use efficiency by crops. Water balances (WB) were applied to evaluate fertilizer N leaching using 15N labeled urea in west Bahia, Brazil. Three scenarios (2008/2009) were established: i) rainfall + irrigation the full year, ii) rainfall only; and iii) rainfall + irrigation only in the dry season. The water excess was considered equal to the deep drainage for the very flat area (runoff = 0) with a water table located several meters below soil surface (capillary rise = 0). The control volume for water balance calculations was the 0 - 1 m soil layer, considering that it involves the active root system. The water drained below 1 m was used to estimate fertilizer N leaching losses. WB calculations used the mathematic model of Penman-Monteith for evapotranspiration, considering the crop coefficient equal to unity. The high N application rate associated to the high rainfall plus irrigation was found to be the main cause for leaching, which values were 14.7 and 104.5 kg ha-1 for the rates 400 and 800 kg ha-1 of N, corresponding to 3.7 and 13.1 % of the applied fertilizer, respectively.

Factors Influencing the Implementation of the Balanced Scorecard in Portugal: Empirical Evidence From Privately Owned and Publicly Owned Organizations

In this paper we aim to identify and analyze a set of variables that can potentially influence the adoption and knowledge of the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) in Portugal. Hypotheses were tested using data obtained from a questionnaire sent to 591 publicly-owned organizations (local governments, municipal corporations and hospitals) and 549 privately-owned organizations (large companies and small and medium enterprises) in Portugal. The results allow us to conclude that although the majority of respondents claimed to know the BSC, its use in Portugal is still limited and very recent, particularly in the public sector organizations. However, it should be noted that its use has increased in Portugal in recent years. The study also reveals that in spite of the noticeable differences between public and private sector, the BSC is used in the public sector after a few adjustments to the traditional model. Using as theoretical framework the contingency and institutional theories, we found that decentralization, vertical differentiation and the degree of higher education are associated with the implementation of the BSC.

Disclosure of Intangible Assets: an Empirical Study of Financial Corporations in the Iberian Peninsula

The purpose of this paper is to analyse, firstly, to what extent intangible assets in the consolidated accounts of seven Portuguese banks and seven Spanish banks between 2006 and 2009 are disclosed and, secondly, to analyse what the most influential factors are in the above mentioned disclosure. In order to do this, before reviewing the existing literature and on the basis of other studies on this topic, a disclosure index has been created based on the requirements related to the intangible assets as stated in IAS 38. Then, two statistical analyses have been made: a univariate one for each of the explanatory variables and a multivariate one, in which all variables have been analysed. Both analyses led to the conclusion that the disclosure index of intangible assets is 0.96, where the bank dimension and the internationalization degree are the variables that are considered explanatory of the variation of the disclosure index in the regression analysis.