The epidemiological modelling of major depressive disorder : application for the global burden of disease study 2010

Background Although the detrimental impact of major depressive disorder (MDD) at the individual level has been described, its global epidemiology remains unclear given limitations in the data. Here we present the modelled epidemiological profile of MDD dealing with heterogeneity in the data, enforcing internal consistency between epidemiological parameters and making estimates for world regions with no empirical data. These estimates were used to quantify the burden of MDD for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010). Method Analyses drew on data from our existing literature review of the epidemiology of MDD. DisMod-MR, the latest version of the generic disease modelling system redesigned as a Bayesian meta-regression tool, derived prevalence by age, year and sex for 21 regions. Prior epidemiological knowledge, study- and country-level covariates adjusted sub-optimal raw data. Results There were over 298 million cases of MDD globally at any point in time in 2010, with the highest proportion of cases occurring between 25 and 34 years. Global point prevalence was very similar across time (4.4% (95% uncertainty: 4.2–4.7%) in 1990, 4.4% (4.1–4.7%) in 2005 and 2010), but higher in females (5.5% (5.0–6.0%) compared to males (3.2% (3.0–3.6%) in 2010. Regions in conflict had higher prevalence than those with no conflict. The annual incidence of an episode of MDD followed a similar age and regional pattern to prevalence but was about one and a half times higher, consistent with an average duration of 37.7 weeks. Conclusion We were able to integrate available data, including those from high quality surveys and sub-optimal studies, into a model adjusting for known methodological sources of heterogeneity. We were also able to estimate the epidemiology of MDD in regions with no available data. This informed GBD 2010 and the public health field, with a clearer understanding of the global distribution of MDD.

Explicit finite element modelling of bridge girder bearing pedestals

Bridge girder bearings rest on pedestals to transfer the loading safely to the pier headstock. In spite of the existence of industry guidelines, due to construction complexities, such guidelines are often overlooked. Further, there is paucity of research on the performance of pedestals, although their failure could cause exorbitant maintenance costs. Although reinforced concrete pedestals are recommended in the industry design guidelines, unreinforced concrete and/ or epoxy glue pedestals are provided due to construction issues; such pedestals fail within a very short period of service. With a view to understanding the response of pedestals subject to monotonic loading, a three-dimensional nonlinear explicit finite element micro-model of unreinforced and reinforced concrete pedestals has been developed. Contact and material nonlinearity have been accounted for in the model. It is shown that the unreinforced concrete pedestals suffer from localised edge stress singularities, the failure of which was comparable to those in the field. The reinforced concrete pedestals, on the other hand, distribute the loading without edge stress singularity, again conforming to the field experience.

Three-dimensional geological modelling of the Galilee and central Eromanga basins, Australia: New insights into aquifer/aquitard geometry and potential influence of faults on inter-connectivity

Study region The Galilee and Eromanga basins are located in central Queensland, Australia. Both basins are components of the Great Artesian Basin which host some of the most significant groundwater resources in Australia. Study focus This study evaluates the influence of regional faults on groundwater flow in an aquifer/aquitard interbedded succession that form one of the largest Artesian Basins in the world. In order to assess the significance of regional faults as potential barriers or conduits to groundwater flow, vertical displacements of the major aquifers and aquitards were studied at each major fault and the general hydraulic relationship of units that are juxtaposed by the faults were considered. A three-dimensional (3D) geological model of the Galilee and Eromanga basins was developed based on integration of well log data, seismic surfaces, surface geology and elevation data. Geological structures were mapped in detail and major faults were characterised. New hydrological insights for the region Major faults that have been described in previous studies have been confirmed within the 3D geological model domain and a preliminary assessment of their hydraulic significance has been conducted. Previously unknown faults such as the Thomson River Fault (herein named) have also been identified in this study.

A Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network framework for passenger facilitation modelling

This paper presents a novel framework for the modelling of passenger facilitation in a complex environment. The research is motivated by the challenges in the airport complex system, where there are multiple stakeholders, differing operational objectives and complex interactions and interdependencies between different parts of the airport system. Traditional methods for airport terminal modelling do not explicitly address the need for understanding causal relationships in a dynamic environment. Additionally, existing Bayesian Network (BN) models, which provide a means for capturing causal relationships, only present a static snapshot of a system. A method to integrate a BN complex systems model with stochastic queuing theory is developed based on the properties of the Poisson and exponential distributions. The resultant Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network (HQBN) framework enables the simulation of arbitrary factors, their relationships, and their effects on passenger flow and vice versa. A case study implementation of the framework is demonstrated on the inbound passenger facilitation process at Brisbane International Airport. The predicted outputs of the model, in terms of cumulative passenger flow at intermediary and end points in the inbound process, are found to have an R2 goodness of fit of 0.9994 and 0.9982 respectively over a 10 h test period. The utility of the framework is demonstrated on a number of usage scenarios including causal analysis and ‘what-if’ analysis. This framework provides the ability to analyse and simulate a dynamic complex system, and can be applied to other socio-technical systems such as hospitals.

A framework for model integration and holistic modelling of socio-technical systems

This paper presents a layered framework for the purposes of integrating different Socio-Technical Systems (STS) models and perspectives into a whole-of-systems model. Holistic modelling plays a critical role in the engineering of STS due to the interplay between social and technical elements within these systems and resulting emergent behaviour. The framework decomposes STS models into components, where each component is either a static object, dynamic object or behavioural object. Based on existing literature, a classification of the different elements that make up STS, whether it be a social, technical or a natural environment element, is developed; each object can in turn be classified according to the STS elements it represents. Using the proposed framework, it is possible to systematically decompose models to an extent such that points of interface can be identified and the contextual factors required in transforming the component of one model to interface into another is obtained. Using an airport inbound passenger facilitation process as a case study socio-technical system, three different models are analysed: a Business Process Modelling Notation (BPMN) model, Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network (HQBN) model and an Agent Based Model (ABM). It is found that the framework enables the modeller to identify non-trivial interface points such as between the spatial interactions of an ABM and the causal reasoning of a HQBN, and between the process activity representation of a BPMN and simulated behavioural performance in a HQBN. Such a framework is a necessary enabler in order to integrate different modelling approaches in understanding and managing STS.

Dynamics of industry architecture and firm’s capability development : role of knowledge integration within product innovation

Aligned with the decline of Marshalian view of industry as constituting homogeneous set of firms, the new perspective is emerging by concentrating more on dynamics of sectors as the building block of industrial changes. Based on new assumptions, much of the action in terms of strategy, technology, and knowledge development does not happen either among firms within a stable industry, or through the growth or decline of certain sectors compared to others. Instead, the action happens in terms of the definition, redefinition, drawing, and redrawing of the very nature of these sectors. Technology does not progress and develop within a sector; rather it shapes (and is shaped by) the encompassing architecture of multiple sectors.

Automated fit quantification of tibial nail designs during the insertion using computer three-dimensional modelling

Intramedullary nailing is the standard fixation method for displaced diaphyseal fractures of the tibia. An optimal nail design should both facilitate insertion and anatomically fit the bone geometry at its final position in order to reduce the risk of stress fractures and malalignments. Due to the nonexistence of suitable commercial software, we developed a software tool for the automated fit assessment of nail designs. Furthermore, we demonstrated that an optimised nail, which fits better at the final position, is also easier to insert. Three-dimensional models of two nail designs and 20 tibiae were used. The fitting was quantified in terms of surface area, maximum distance, sum of surface areas and sum of maximum distances by which the nail was protruding into the cortex. The software was programmed to insert the nail into the bone model and to quantify the fit at defined increment levels. On average, the misfit during the insertion in terms of the four fitting parameters was smaller for the Expert Tibial Nail Proximal bend (476.3 mm2, 1.5 mm, 2029.8 mm2, 6.5 mm) than the Expert Tibial Nail (736.7 mm2, 2.2 mm, 2491.4 mm2, 8.0 mm). The differences were statistically significant (p ≤ 0.05). The software could be used by nail implant manufacturers for the purpose of implant design validation.