Cluster recognition in spatial-temporal sequences: The case of forest fires

Forest fire sequences can be modelled as a stochastic point process where events are characterized by their spatial locations and occurrence in time. Cluster analysis permits the detection of the space/time pattern distribution of forest fires. These analyses are useful to assist fire-managers in identifying risk areas, implementing preventive measures and conducting strategies for an efficient distribution of the firefighting resources. This paper aims to identify hot spots in forest fire sequences by means of the space-time scan statistics permutation model (STSSP) and a geographical information system (GIS) for data and results visualization. The scan statistical methodology uses a scanning window, which moves across space and time, detecting local excesses of events in specific areas over a certain period of time. Finally, the statistical significance of each cluster is evaluated through Monte Carlo hypothesis testing. The case study is the forest fires registered by the Forest Service in Canton Ticino (Switzerland) from 1969 to 2008. This dataset consists of geo-referenced single events including the location of the ignition points and additional information. The data were aggregated into three sub-periods (considering important preventive legal dispositions) and two main ignition-causes (lightning and anthropogenic causes). Results revealed that forest fire events in Ticino are mainly clustered in the southern region where most of the population is settled. Our analysis uncovered local hot spots arising from extemporaneous arson activities. Results regarding the naturally-caused fires (lightning fires) disclosed two clusters detected in the northern mountainous area.

Community cluster of meningococcal disease by Neisseria meningitidis serogroup C in Andalusia, Spain, March to May 2011.

Between March and May of 2011, a cluster of three fatal cases of meningococcal sepsis occurred in Andalusia, Spain, in a municipality with a population of around 20,000 inhabitants. The cases were in their mid-teens to early thirties and were notified to the epidemiological surveillance system of Andalusia (Sistema de Vigilancia Epidemiológica de Andalucía, SVEA) during a 68-day period from March through May 2011. All three were infected with the same strain of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup C genosubtype VR1:5-1;VR2:10-8. None of the cases had been previously vaccinated against N. meningitidis serogroup C. Antibiotic post-exposure chemoprophylaxis was administered to close contacts of every diagnosed case. Once the cluster was confirmed, the local population was informed through the media about the control measures taken by the health authorities. The vaccination history against N. meningitidis serogroup C of the population under 25 years-old in the municipality was checked. Vaccination was offered to unimmunised individuals younger than 25 years of age and an additional dose of vaccine was offered to those who had been vaccinated between 2000 and 2006 with a vaccination schedule of three doses before the first year of age. No further cases occurred since the beginning of these actions.

Rabid puppy-dog imported into the Netherlands from Morocco via Spain, February 2012.

To the editor: We read with interest the article by van Rijckevorsel et al. on a rabid puppy-dog imported into the Netherlands from Morocco via Spain, recently published in Eurosurveillance [1]. We would like to complete the information on this event with actions taken by the Spanish health authorities and lessons learnt.

Guía para profesionales : programa de promoción de la salud bucodental : aprende a sonreír

Esta publicación es una actualización de los contenidos del "Manual Educación Dental Infantil. Guía para los que se dedican a la enseñanza y al cuidado de loos niños" (1991) y del de "Educación Dental Infantil. Guía para profesionales de Educación y de Salud" (2002).

Long-term risk of incident type 2 diabetes and measures of overall and regional obesity: the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study

BACKGROUND Waist circumference (WC) is a simple and reliable measure of fat distribution that may add to the prediction of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but previous studies have been too small to reliably quantify the relative and absolute risk of future diabetes by WC at different levels of body mass index (BMI). METHODS AND FINDINGS The prospective InterAct case-cohort study was conducted in 26 centres in eight European countries and consists of 12,403 incident T2D cases and a stratified subcohort of 16,154 individuals from a total cohort of 340,234 participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. We used Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random effects meta-analysis methods to estimate hazard ratios for T2D. Kaplan-Meier estimates of the cumulative incidence of T2D were calculated. BMI and WC were each independently associated with T2D, with WC being a stronger risk factor in women than in men. Risk increased across groups defined by BMI and WC; compared to low normal weight individuals (BMI 18.5-22.4 kg/m(2)) with a low WC (<94/80 cm in men/women), the hazard ratio of T2D was 22.0 (95% confidence interval 14.3; 33.8) in men and 31.8 (25.2; 40.2) in women with grade 2 obesity (BMI≥35 kg/m(2)) and a high WC (>102/88 cm). Among the large group of overweight individuals, WC measurement was highly informative and facilitated the identification of a subgroup of overweight people with high WC whose 10-y T2D cumulative incidence (men, 70 per 1,000 person-years; women, 44 per 1,000 person-years) was comparable to that of the obese group (50-103 per 1,000 person-years in men and 28-74 per 1,000 person-years in women). CONCLUSIONS WC is independently and strongly associated with T2D, particularly in women, and should be more widely measured for risk stratification. If targeted measurement is necessary for reasons of resource scarcity, measuring WC in overweight individuals may be an effective strategy, since it identifies a high-risk subgroup of individuals who could benefit from individualised preventive action.

Fungal co-culture as a new source of antifungal metabolites

Background: Over the last two decades, mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CVD) declined by about 30% in the European Union (EU). Design: We analyzed trends in CHD (X ICD codes: I20-I25) and CVD (X ICD codes: I60-I69) mortality in young adults (age 35-44 years) in the EU as a whole and in 12 selected European countries, over the period 1980-2007. Methods: Data were derived from the World Health Organization mortality database. With joinpoint regression analysis, we identified significant changes in trends and estimated average annual percent changes (AAPC). Results: CHD mortality rates at ages 35-44 years have decreased in both sexes since the 1980s for most countries, except for Russia (130/100,000 men and 24/100,000 women, in 2005-7). The lowest rates (around 9/100,000 men, 2/100,000 women) were in France, Italy and Sweden. In men, the steepest declines in mortality were in the Czech Republic (AAPC = -6.1%), the Netherlands (-5.2%), Poland (-4.5%), and England and Wales (-4.5%). Patterns were similar in women, though with appreciably lower rates. The AAPC in the EU was -3.3% for men (rate = 16.6/100,000 in 2005-7) and -2.1% for women (rate = 3.5/100,000). For CVD, Russian rates in 2005-7 were 40/100,000 men and 16/100,000 women, 5 to 10-fold higher than in most western European countries. The steepest declines were in the Czech Republic and Italy for men, in Sweden and the Czech Republic for women. The AAPC in the EU was -2.5% in both sexes, with steeper declines after the mid-late 1990s (rates = 6.4/100,000 men and 4.3/100,000 women in 2005-7). Conclusions: CHD and CVD mortality steadily declined in Europe, except in Russia, whose rates were 10 to 15-fold higher than those of France, Italy or Sweden. Hungary and Poland, and also Scotland, where CHD trends were less favourable than in other western European countries, also emerge as priorities for preventive interventions.

Fístula gastrocolocutánea: una infrecuente complicación de la gastrostomía endoscópica percutánea

Endoscopic percutaneous gastrostomy is a safe technique although with potential complications before which the clinician has to be on alert in order to early detect them even after a long period of normal functioning. Most of them represent minor problems. Gastrocolocutaneous fistula is a rare but severe complication favored by some risk factors such as previous post-surgical adherences, deformities of the spine, or excessive gastric inflation at the time of performing the technique. We present the case of a patient with PEG with this complication that occurred after the first tube replacement. Our goal was in two senses: on the one hand, to analyze the preventive aspects and basic guidelines for a safe PEG placement to minimize the risks; on the other hand, to alert on the possible presence of this entity to prevent a progressive nutritional impairment. This complication ought to be included in the differential diagnosis of the diarrhea syndrome in the patient carrying a PEG. The diagnostic techniques of choice are radiologic tests such as CT scan and contrast media administration through the tube. Surgical therapy should be reserved to patients with acute peritonitis in order to perform a new gastrostomy.

Cost-effectiveness of pharmacotherapies for nicotine dependence in primary care settings: a multinational comparison.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness of the first-line pharmacotherapies (nicotine gum, patch, spray, inhaler, and bupropion) for smoking cessation across six Western countries-Canada, France, Spain, Switzerland, the United States, and the United Kingdom. DESIGN AND STUDY POPULATION: A Markov-chain cohort model to simulate two cohorts of smokers: (1) a reference cohort given brief cessation counselling by a general practitioner (GP); (2) a treatment cohort given counselling plus pharmacotherapy. Effectiveness expressed as odds ratios for quitting associated with pharmacotherapies. Costs based on the additional physician time required and retail prices of the medications. INTERVENTIONS: Addition of each first-line pharmacotherapy to GP cessation counselling. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cost per life-year saved associated with pharmacotherapies. RESULTS: The cost per life-year saved for counselling only ranged from US190 dollars in Spain to 773 dollars in the UK for men, and from 288 dollars in Spain to 1168 dollars in the UK for women. The incremental cost per life-year saved for gum ranged from 2230 dollars for men in Spain to 7643 dollars for women in the US; for patch from 1758 dollars for men in Spain to 5131 dollars for women in the UK; for spray from 1935 dollars for men in Spain to 7969 dollars for women in the US; for inhaler from 3480 dollars for men in Switzerland to 8700 dollars for women in France; and for bupropion from 792 dollars for men in Canada to 2922 dollars for women in the US. In sensitivity analysis, changes in discount rate, treatment effectiveness, and natural quit rate had the strongest influences on cost-effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: The cost-effectiveness of the pharmacotherapies varied significantly across the six study countries, however, in each case, the results would be considered favourable as compared to other common preventive pharmacotherapies.

El lavado de manos: ¿una recomendación atendida?

Objective: to determine the incidence of hand washing in parents as a preventive factor in the spread of viral respiratory infections in children under two years assigned to an urban pediatric basic health area affected by catarrhal symptoms during the influenza vaccination campaign. Material and methods: from 230 children under two years included in the basic health area attending the Well Child program, 51 consulted during the influenza vaccination campaign (October 2011) by catarrhal symptoms. Results: fifty-one children were included, 23 male and 28 female. From the clinical point of view, 33 cases were afebrile and only 18 had fever, runny nose 100%. The clinic diagnosis in 44 cases was nasopharyngitis, acute bronchitis in 5 cases and obstructive bronchiolitis in 2 cases. No family history in 19, however 32 cases had a family member with catarrhal symptoms. As for the performance of hand washing as a preventive measure, 34 cases said they did not comply with this measure, only 17 cases did, despite the recommendations. Conclusions: while recognizing the importance of hand washing as a preventive measure for respiratory infections and being included among the recommendations offered in the well child program, only 33% of the population of our study reported washing hands. This recommendation should also be included in consultations on demand during the influenza season to encourage compliance.

Comienza la escuela municipal de familia en Vícar (Almería)

Boletín semanal para profesionales sanitarios de la Secretaría General de Salud Pública, Inclusión y Calidad de Vida de la Consejería de Salud y Bienestar Social

Guía para el desarrollo de Programas de intercambio de Jeringuillas (PIJ) desde la consulta de triage de los Dispositivos de Cuidados Críticos y Urgencias (DCCU)

There are exceptional situations where emergency services are required Primary Care in the application of material used by drug-dependent patients, being the response to this demand is something that many of the cases, to individual discretion and the randomness and variability every situation leads to an answer. It calls for a response commensurate to public services and preventive health philosophy in most cases will be carried out by the nurse to perform assistance Devices Critical Care (DCCU), often this first contact these patients and slots at the supply of resources diminishes the possibilities of acquisition of such material to them. That is why, and in the absence in this area of patient safety and professional, a workflow model and according to the prevailing philosophy of working in primary care in terms of prevention policies and recruitment of patients concerned, this project raises guidance for the development of a needle exchange program from the triage consultations DCCU.

Heidi Wiki: Información e interfaz de datos sobre la salud en Europa

Boletín semanal para profesionales sanitarios de la Secretaría General de Salud Pública, Inclusión y Calidad de Vida de la Consejería de Salud y Bienestar Social

Evaluar los menús escolares desde la protección y la promoción de la salud

Boletín semanal para profesionales sanitarios de la Secretaría General de Salud Pública y Participación Social de la Consejería de Salud

Talleres de interculturalidad y mediación en salud para personas privadas de libertad

Boletín semanal para profesionales sanitarios de la Secretaría General de Salud Pública y Participación Social de la Consejería de Salud

La formación de profesionales de salud pública ante los cambios en materia de vacunas

Boletín semanal para profesionales sanitarios de la Secretaría General de Salud Pública y Participación Social de la Consejería de Salud