991 resultados para predictor-corrector methods
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Since the 1990's, cheating athletes have abused substances to increase their oxygen transport capabilities; among these substances, recombinant EPO is the most well known. Currently, other investigational pharmaceutical products are able to produce an effect similar to EPO but without having chemical structures related to EPO; these are the synthetic erythropoiesis stimulating agents (ESAs). Peginesatide (also known as Hematide?) is being developed by Affymax and Takeda and, if approved by regulatory authorities, could soon be released on the international market. To detect potential athletic abuse of this product and deter athletes who consider cheating, we initiated a collaboration to implement a detection test for anti-doping purposes. Peginesatide is a synthetic, PEGylated, investigational, peptide-based erythropoiesis-stimulating agent that is designed and engineered to stimulate specifically the erythropoietin receptor dimer that governs erythropoiesis. It is undetectable using current anti-doping tests due to its lack of sequence homology to EPO. To detect and deter potential abuse of peginesatide, we initiated an industry/antidoping laboratory collaboration to develop and validate screening and confirmation assays so that they would be available before peginesatide reaches the market. We describe a screening ELISA and a confirmation assay consisting of immune-purification followed by separation with SDS-PAGE and revelation with Western double blotting. Both assays can detect 0.5 ng/mL concentrations of peginesatide in blood samples, enabling detection for several days after administration of a physiologically relevant dose. This initial report describes experimental characterization of these assays, including testing with a blinded set of samples from a clinical study conducted in healthy volunteers.
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��The number of people suffering dementia will triple in the next 40 years, according to a new study by the World Health Organization, leading to catastrophic social and financial costs. Dementia, a brain illness that affects memory, behavior and the ability to perform even common tasks, affects mostly older people; Alzheimer's causes many cases. Read the report:Global burden of dementia in the year 2050: summary of methods and data sources
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A survey of medical ambulatory practice was carried out in February-March 1981 in the two Swiss cantons of Vaud and Fribourg (total population: 700,000), in which 205 physicians participated. The methodology used was inspired from the U.S. National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey, the data collection instrument of which was adapted to our conditions; in addition, data were gathered on all referrals prescribed by 154 physicians during two weeks. (The instruments used are presented.) The potential and limits of this type of survey are discussed, as well as the representativity of the participating physicians and of the recorded visits, which are a systematic sample of over 43,000 visits.
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Life expectancy by socio-economic status is an important measure of health inequality. This article presents proposed changes in the methods used to estimate life expectancy by social class using the ONS Longitudinal Study.
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BACKGROUND: We sought to improve upon previously published statistical modeling strategies for binary classification of dyslipidemia for general population screening purposes based on the waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index anthropometric measurements. METHODS: Study subjects were participants in WHO-MONICA population-based surveys conducted in two Swiss regions. Outcome variables were based on the total serum cholesterol to high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio. The other potential predictor variables were gender, age, current cigarette smoking, and hypertension. The models investigated were: (i) linear regression; (ii) logistic classification; (iii) regression trees; (iv) classification trees (iii and iv are collectively known as "CART"). Binary classification performance of the region-specific models was externally validated by classifying the subjects from the other region. RESULTS: Waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index remained modest predictors of dyslipidemia. Correct classification rates for all models were 60-80%, with marked gender differences. Gender-specific models provided only small gains in classification. The external validations provided assurance about the stability of the models. CONCLUSIONS: There were no striking differences between either the algebraic (i, ii) vs. non-algebraic (iii, iv), or the regression (i, iii) vs. classification (ii, iv) modeling approaches. Anticipated advantages of the CART vs. simple additive linear and logistic models were less than expected in this particular application with a relatively small set of predictor variables. CART models may be more useful when considering main effects and interactions between larger sets of predictor variables.
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INTRODUCTION: Red cell distribution width was recently identified as a predictor of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in patients with previous stroke. Red cell distribution width is also higher in patients with stroke compared with those without. However, there are no data on the association of red cell distribution width, assessed during the acute phase of ischemic stroke, with stroke severity and functional outcome. In the present study, we sought to investigate this relationship and ascertain the main determinants of red cell distribution width in this population. METHODS: We used data from the Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne for patients between January 2003 and December 2008. Red cell distribution width was generated at admission by the Sysmex XE-2100 automated cell counter from ethylene diamine tetraacetic acid blood samples stored at room temperature until measurement. An χ(2) -test was performed to compare frequencies of categorical variables between different red cell distribution width quartiles, and one-way analysis of variance for continuous variables. The effect of red cell distribution width on severity and functional outcome was investigated in univariate and multivariate robust regression analysis. Level of significance was set at 95%. RESULTS: There were 1504 patients (72±15·76 years, 43·9% females) included in the analysis. Red cell distribution width was significantly associated to NIHSS (β-value=0·24, P=0·01) and functional outcome (odds ratio=10·73 for poor outcome, P<0·001) at univariate analysis but not multivariate. Prehospital Rankin score (β=0·19, P<0·001), serum creatinine (β=0·008, P<0·001), hemoglobin (β=-0·009, P<0·001), mean platelet volume (β=0·09, P<0·05), age (β=0·02, P<0·001), low ejection fraction (β=0·66, P<0·001) and antihypertensive treatment (β=0·32, P<0·001) were independent determinants of red cell distribution width. CONCLUSIONS: Red cell distribution width, assessed during the early phase of acute ischemic stroke, does not predict severity or functional outcome.
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We found that lumbar spine texture analysis using trabecular bone score (TBS) is a risk factor for MOF and a risk factor for death in a retrospective cohort study from a large clinical registry for the province of Manitoba, Canada. INTRODUCTION: FRAX® estimates the 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) using clinical risk factors and femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD). Trabecular bone score (TBS), derived from texture in the spine dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) image, is related to bone microarchitecture and fracture risk independently of BMD. Our objective was to determine whether TBS provides information on MOF probability beyond that provided by the FRAX variables. METHODS: We included 33,352 women aged 40-100 years (mean 63 years) with baseline DXA measurements of lumbar spine TBS and femoral neck BMD. The association between TBS, the FRAX variables, and the risk of MOF or death was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model. RESULTS: During the mean of 4.7 years, 1,754 women died and 1,872 sustained one or more MOF. For each standard deviation reduction in TBS, there was a 36 % increase in MOF risk (HR 1.36, 95 % CI 1.30-1.42, p < 0.001) and a 32 % increase in death (HR 1.32, 95 % CI 1.26-1.39, p < 0.001). When adjusted for significant clinical risk factors and femoral neck BMD, lumbar spine TBS was still a significant predictor of MOF (HR 1.18, 95 % CI 1.12-1.23) and death (HR 1.20, 95 % CI 1.14-1.26). Models for estimating MOF probability, accounting for competing mortality, showed that low TBS (10th percentile) increased risk by 1.5-1.6-fold compared with high TBS (90th percentile) across a broad range of ages and femoral neck T-scores. CONCLUSIONS: Lumbar spine TBS is able to predict incident MOF independent of FRAX clinical risk factors and femoral neck BMD even after accounting for the increased death hazard.
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Background Delirium is an independent predictor of increased length of stay, mortality, and treatment costs in critical care patients. Its incidence may be underestimated or overestimated if delirium is assessed by using subjective clinical impression alone rather than an objective instrument. Objectives To determine frequency of discrepancies between subjective and objective delirium monitoring. Methods An observational cohort study was performed in a surgical-cardiosurgical 31-bed intensive care unit of a university hospital. Patients' delirium status was rated daily by bedside nurses on the basis of subjective individual clinical impressions and by medical students on the basis of scores on the objective Confusion Assessment Method for the Intensive Care Unit. Results Of 160 patients suitable for analysis, 38.8% (n = 62) had delirium according to objective criteria at some time during their stay in the intensive care unit. A total of 436 paired observations were analyzed. Delirium was diagnosed in 26.1% of observations (n = 114) with the objective method. This percentage included 6.4% (n = 28) in whom delirium was not recognized via subjective criteria. According to subjective criteria, delirium was present in 29.4% of paired observations (n = 128), including 9.6% (n = 42) with no objective indications of delirium. A total of 8 patients with no evidence of delirium according to the objective criteria were prescribed haloperidol and lorazepam because the subjective method indicated they had delirium. Conclusions Use of objective criteria helped detect delirium in more patients and also identified patients mistakenly thought to have delirium who actually did not meet objective criteria for diagnosis of the condition.
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A study was carried out to compare the performance of a commercial method (MGIT) and four inexpensive drug susceptibility methods: nitrate reductase assay (NRA), microscopic observation drug susceptibility (MODS) assay, MTT test, and broth microdilution method (BMM). A total of 64 clinical isolates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis were studied. The Lowenstein-Jensen proportion method (PM) was used as gold standard. MGIT, NRA, MODS, and MTT results were available on an average of less than 10 days, whereas BMM results could be reported in about 20 days. Most of the evaluated tests showed excellent performance for isoniazid and rifampicin, with sensitivity and specificity values > 90%. With most of the assays, sensitivity for ethambutol was low (62-87%) whereas for streptomycin, sensitivity values ranged from 84 to 100%; NRA-discrepancies were associated with cultures with a low proportion of EMB-resistant organisms while most discrepancies with quantitative tests (MMT and BMM) were seen with isolates whose minimal inhibitory concentrations fell close the cutoff. MGIT is reliable but still expensive. NRA is the most inexpensive and easiest method to perform without changing the organization of the routine PM laboratory performance. While MODS, MTT, and BMM, have the disadvantage from the point of view of biosafety, they offer the possibility of detecting partial resistant strains. This study shows a very good level of agreement of the four low-cost methods compared to the PM for rapid detection of isoniazid, rifampicin and streptomycin resistance (Kappa values > 0.8); more standardization is needed for ethambutol.
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Mutations in the rpoB locus confer conformational changes leading to defective binding of rifampin (RIF) to rpoB and consequently resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Polymerase chain reaction-single-strand conformation polymorphism (PCR-SSCP) was established as a rapid screening test for the detection of mutations in the rpoB gene, and direct sequencing has been unambiguously applied to characterize mutations. A total of 37 of Iranian isolates of M. tuberculosis, 16 sensitive and 21 resistant to RIF, were used in this study. A 193-bp region of the rpoB gene was amplified and PCR-SSCP patterns were determined by electrophoresis in 10% acrylamide gel and silver staining. Also, 21 samples of 193-bp rpoB amplicons with different PCR-SSCP patterns from RIFr and 10 from RIFs were sequenced. Seven distinguishable PCR-SSCP patterns were recognized in the 21 Iranian RIFr strains, while 15 out of 16 RIFs isolates demonstrated PCR-SSCP banding patterns similar to that of sensitive standard strain H37Rv. However one of the sensitive isolates demonstrated a different pattern. There were seen six different mutations in the amplified region of rpoB gene: codon 516(GAC/GTC), 523(GGG/GGT), 526(CAC/TAC), 531(TCG/TTG), 511(CTG/TTG), and 512(AGC/TCG). This study demonstrated the high specificity (93.8%) and sensitivity (95.2%) of PCR-SSCP method for detection of mutation in rpoB gene; 85.7% of RIFr strains showed a single mutation and 14.3% had no mutations. Three strains showed mutations caused polymorphism. Our data support the common notion that rifampin resistance genotypes are generally present mutations in codons 531 and 526, most frequently found in M. tuberculosis populations regardless of geographic origin.
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The objective of this study was to analyse the effect of using two health education approaches on knowledge of transmission and prevention of schistosomiasis of school children living in a rural endemic area in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The 87 children participating in the study were divided into three groups based on gender, age and presence or absence of Schistosoma mansoni infection. In the first group the social representation model and illness experience was used. In the second group, we used the cognitive model based on the transmission of information. The third group, the control group, did not receive any information related to schistosomiasis. Ten meetings were held with all three groups that received a pre-test prior to the beginning of the educational intervention and a post-test after the completion of the program. The results showed that knowledge levels in Group 1 increased significantly during the program in regard to transmission (p = 0.038) and prevention (p = 0.001) of schistosomiasis. Groups 2 and 3 did not show significant increase in knowledge between the two tests. These results indicate that health education models need to consider social representation and illness experience besides scientific knowledge in order to increase knowledge of schistosomiasis transmission and prevention.
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This article uses a mixed methods design to investigate the effects of social influence on family formation in a sample of eastern and western German young adults at an early stage of their family formation. Theoretical propositions on the importance of informal interaction for fertility and family behavior are still rarely supported by systematic empirical evidence. Major problems are the correct identification of salient relationships and the comparability of social networks across population subgroups. This article addresses the two issues through a combination of qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis. In-depth interviewing, network charts, and network grids are used to map individual personal relationships and their influence on family formation decisions. In addition, an analysis of friendship dyads is provided.
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ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: In acute myocardial infarction (AMI), both tissue necrosis and edema are present and both might be implicated in the development of intraventricular dyssynchrony. However, their relative contribution to transient dyssynchrony is not known. Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) can detect necrosis and edema with high spatial resolution and it can quantify dyssynchrony by tagging techniques. METHODS: Patients with a first AMI underwent percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) of the infarct-related artery within 24 h of onset of chest pain. Within 5-7 days after the event and at 4 months, CMR was performed. The CMR protocol included the evaluation of intraventricular dyssynchrony by applying a novel 3D-tagging sequence to the left ventricle (LV) yielding the CURE index (circumferential uniformity ratio estimate; 1 = complete synchrony). On T2-weighted images, edema was measured as high-signal (>2 SD above remote tissue) along the LV mid-myocardial circumference on 3 short-axis images (% of circumference corresponding to the area-at-risk). In analogy, on late-gadolinium enhancement (LGE) images, necrosis was quantified manually as percentage of LV mid-myocardial circumference on 3 short-axis images. Necrosis was also quantified on LGE images covering the entire LV (expressed as %LV mass). Finally, salvaged myocardium was calculated as the area-at-risk minus necrosis (expressed as % of LV circumference). RESULTS: After successful PCI (n = 22, 2 female, mean age: 57 ± 12y), peak troponin T was 20 ± 36ug/l and the LV ejection fraction on CMR was 41 ± 8%. Necrosis mass was 30 ± 10% and CURE was 0.91 ± 0.05. Edema was measured as 58 ± 14% of the LV circumference. In the acute phase, the extent of edema correlated with dyssynchrony (r2 = -0.63, p < 0.01), while extent of necrosis showed borderline correlation (r2 = -0.19, p = 0.05). PCI resulted in salvaged myocardium of 27 ± 14%. LV dyssynchrony (=CURE) decreased at 4 months from 0.91 ± 0.05 to 0.94 ± 0.03 (p < 0.004, paired t-test). At 4 months, edema was absent and scar %LV slightly shrunk to 23.7 ± 10.0% (p < 0.002 vs baseline). Regression of LV dyssynchrony during the 4 months follow-up period was predicted by both, the extent of edema and its necrosis component in the acute phase. CONCLUSIONS: In the acute phase of infarction, LV dyssynchrony is closely related to the extent of edema, while necrosis is a poor predictor of acute LV dyssynchrony. Conversely, regression of intraventricular LV dyssynchrony during infarct healing is predicted by the extent of necrosis in the acute phase.
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Purpose: to assess among current smokers in Switzerland the willingness to quit and the preferred methods to help quitting smoking. Methods: cross-sectional study including 1265 current smokers (607 women and 658 men). Difficulty quitting smoking and the preferred methods to help quitting smoking were assessed by questionnaire. Results: 89% of women and 84% of men reported being "very difficult" or "difficult" to quit smoking. Almost three quarters of smokers (73% of women and 70% of men) reported some willingness to quit smoking, but less than 25% of them wanted to do so within the next 30 days, and only 64% within the next 6 months. Willingness to quit was stronger among younger smokers while no differences were found for gender, physical activity or education al Javel. The preferred methods to help quitting smoking were personalized counselling by a doctor (51.4%), acupuncture (35.9%); nicotine replacement therapy (37.6%); hypnosis (28.8%); information flyers (24.9%); autogenic training (15.3%); bupropion (15.2%); personalized counselling by a non-doctor (14.7%) and group interventions (13.2%). Acupuncture and hypnosis were more favoured by women, and autogenic training by younger smokers. Still, a sizable fraction (between 19 and 51%) of smokers did not know some of the methods to help quitting smoking. Conclusion: although more than two thirds of Swiss smokers want to quit, only a small fraction wishes to do so in the short term. Setter information regarding the different methods to help quitting is also necessary.
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The naturally occurring clonal diversity among field isolates of the major human malaria parasite Plasmodium vivax remained unexplored until the early 1990s, when improved molecular methods allowed the use of blood samples obtained directly from patients, without prior in vitro culture, for genotyping purposes. Here we briefly review the molecular strategies currently used to detect genetically distinct clones in patient-derived P. vivax samples, present evidence that multiple-clone P. vivax infections are commonly detected in areas with different levels of malaria transmission and discuss possible evolutionary and epidemiological consequences of the competition between genetically distinct clones in natural human infections. We suggest that, when two or more genetically distinct clones are present in the same host, intra-host competition for limited resources may select for P. vivax traits that represent major public health challenges, such as increased virulence, increased transmissibility and antimalarial drug resistance.