981 resultados para predictive modelling


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The condensation rate has to be high in the safety pressure suppression pool systems of Boiling Water Reactors (BWR) in order to fulfill their safety function. The phenomena due to such a high direct contact condensation (DCC) rate turn out to be very challenging to be analysed either with experiments or numerical simulations. In this thesis, the suppression pool experiments carried out in the POOLEX facility of Lappeenranta University of Technology were simulated. Two different condensation modes were modelled by using the 2-phase CFD codes NEPTUNE CFD and TransAT. The DCC models applied were the typical ones to be used for separated flows in channels, and their applicability to the rapidly condensing flow in the condensation pool context had not been tested earlier. A low Reynolds number case was the first to be simulated. The POOLEX experiment STB-31 was operated near the conditions between the ’quasi-steady oscillatory interface condensation’ mode and the ’condensation within the blowdown pipe’ mode. The condensation models of Lakehal et al. and Coste & Lavi´eville predicted the condensation rate quite accurately, while the other tested ones overestimated it. It was possible to get the direct phase change solution to settle near to the measured values, but a very high resolution of calculation grid was needed. Secondly, a high Reynolds number case corresponding to the ’chugging’ mode was simulated. The POOLEX experiment STB-28 was chosen, because various standard and highspeed video samples of bubbles were recorded during it. In order to extract numerical information from the video material, a pattern recognition procedure was programmed. The bubble size distributions and the frequencies of chugging were calculated with this procedure. With the statistical data of the bubble sizes and temporal data of the bubble/jet appearance, it was possible to compare the condensation rates between the experiment and the CFD simulations. In the chugging simulations, a spherically curvilinear calculation grid at the blowdown pipe exit improved the convergence and decreased the required cell count. The compressible flow solver with complete steam-tables was beneficial for the numerical success of the simulations. The Hughes-Duffey model and, to some extent, the Coste & Lavi´eville model produced realistic chugging behavior. The initial level of the steam/water interface was an important factor to determine the initiation of the chugging. If the interface was initialized with a water level high enough inside the blowdown pipe, the vigorous penetration of a water plug into the pool created a turbulent wake which invoked the chugging that was self-sustaining. A 3D simulation with a suitable DCC model produced qualitatively very realistic shapes of the chugging bubbles and jets. The comparative FFT analysis of the bubble size data and the pool bottom pressure data gave useful information to distinguish the eigenmodes of chugging, bubbling, and pool structure oscillations.

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The objective of this work was to develop and validate a mathematical model to estimate the duration of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L. r. latifolium hutch) cycle in the State of Goiás, Brazil, by applying the method of growing degree-days (GD), and considering, simultaneously, its time-space variation. The model was developed as a linear combination of elevation, latitude, longitude, and Fourier series of time variation. The model parameters were adjusted by using multiple-linear regression to the observed GD accumulated with air temperature in the range of 15°C to 40°C. The minimum and maximum temperature records used to calculate the GD were obtained from 21 meteorological stations, considering data varying from 8 to 20 years of observation. The coefficient of determination, resulting from the comparison between the estimated and calculated GD along the year was 0.84. Model validation was done by comparing estimated and measured crop cycle in the period from cotton germination to the stage when 90 percent of bolls were opened in commercial crop fields. Comparative results showed that the model performed very well, as indicated by the Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.90 and Willmott agreement index of 0.94, resulting in a performance index of 0.85.

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Scarcity of long-term series of sediment-related variables has led watershed managers to apply mathematical models to simulate sediment fluxes. Due to the high efforts for installation and maintenance of sedimentological gauges, tracers have been pointed out as an alternative to validate soil redistribution modelling. In this study, the 137Cs technique was used to assess the WASA-SED model performance at the Benguê watershed (933 km²), in the Brazilian semiarid. Qualitatively, good agreement was found among the 137Cs technique and the WASA-SED model results. Nonetheless, quantitatively great differences, up to two orders of magnitude, were found between the two methods. Among the uncertainties inherent to the 137Cs technique, definition of the reference inventory seems to be a major source of imprecision. In addition, estimations of water and sediment fluxes with mathematical models usually also present high uncertainty, contributing to the quantitative differences of the soil redistribution estimates with the two methods.

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Local head losses must be considered in estimating properly the maximum length of drip irrigation laterals. The aim of this work was to develop a model based on dimensional analysis for calculating head loss along laterals accounting for in-line drippers. Several measurements were performed with 12 models of emitters to obtain the experimental data required for developing and assessing the model. Based on the Camargo & Sentelhas coefficient, the model presented an excellent result in terms of precision and accuracy on estimating head loss. The deviation between estimated and observed values of head loss increased according to the head loss and the maximum deviation reached 0.17 m. The maximum relative error was 33.75% and only 15% of the data set presented relative errors higher than 20%. Neglecting local head losses incurred a higher than estimated maximum lateral length of 19.48% for pressure-compensating drippers and 16.48% for non pressure-compensating drippers.

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Filtration is a widely used unit operation in chemical engineering. The huge variation in the properties of materials to be ltered makes the study of ltration a challenging task. One of the objectives of this thesis was to show that conventional ltration theories are di cult to use when the system to be modelled contains all of the stages and features that are present in a complete solid/liquid separation process. Furthermore, most of the ltration theories require experimental work to be performed in order to obtain critical parameters required by the theoretical models. Creating a good overall understanding of how the variables a ect the nal product in ltration is somewhat impossible on a purely theoretical basis. The complexity of solid/liquid separation processes require experimental work and when tests are needed, it is advisable to use experimental design techniques so that the goals can be achieved. The statistical design of experiments provides the necessary tools for recognising the e ects of variables. It also helps to perform experimental work more economically. Design of experiments is a prerequisite for creating empirical models that can describe how the measured response is related to the changes in the values of the variable. A software package was developed that provides a ltration practitioner with experimental designs and calculates the parameters for linear regression models, along with the graphical representation of the responses. The developed software consists of two software modules. These modules are LTDoE and LTRead. The LTDoE module is used to create experimental designs for di erent lter types. The lter types considered in the software are automatic vertical pressure lter, double-sided vertical pressure lter, horizontal membrane lter press, vacuum belt lter and ceramic capillary action disc lter. It is also possible to create experimental designs for those cases where the variables are totally user de ned, say for a customized ltration cycle or di erent piece of equipment. The LTRead-module is used to read the experimental data gathered from the experiments, to analyse the data and to create models for each of the measured responses. Introducing the structure of the software more in detail and showing some of the practical applications is the main part of this thesis. This approach to the study of cake ltration processes, as presented in this thesis, has been shown to have good practical value when making ltration tests.

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The objective of this master’s thesis is to investigate the loss behavior of three-level ANPC inverter and compare it with conventional NPC inverter. The both inverters are controlled with mature space vector modulation strategy. In order to provide the comparison both accurate and detailed enough NPC and ANPC simulation models should be obtained. The similar control model of SVM is utilized for both NPC and ANPC inverter models. The principles of control algorithms, the structure and description of models are clarified. The power loss calculation model is based on practical calculation approaches with certain assumptions. The comparison between NPC and ANPC topologies is presented based on results obtained for each semiconductor device, their switching and conduction losses and efficiency of the inverters. Alternative switching states of ANPC topology allow distributing losses among the switches more evenly, than in NPC inverter. Obviously, the losses of a switching device depend on its position in the topology. Losses distribution among the components in ANPC topology allows reducing the stress on certain switches, thus losses are equally distributed among the semiconductors, however the efficiency of the inverters is the same. As a new contribution to earlier studies, the obtained models of SVM control, NPC and ANPC inverters have been built. Thus, this thesis can be used in further more complicated modelling of full-power converters for modern multi-megawatt wind energy conversion systems.

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Climate change has given an impetus to research and developed new technologies to reduce significantly carbon dioxide emissions in energy production in the developed countries. The major pollution source, fossil fuels, will be used as an energy source for many decades, which provides the demand for carbon capture and storage technologies. Over recent years many new technologies has been developed and one of the most promising is calcium-looping in post-combustion carbon capture process, which use carbonation-calcination cycle to capture carbon dioxide from the flue gas of a combustion process. First pilot plant for calcium-looping process has been built in Oviedo, Spain. In this study, a three-dimensional model has been created for the calciner, which is one of the two fluidized bed reactors needed for the process. The calciner is a regenerator where the captured carbon dioxide is removed from the calcium material and then collected after the reactor. Thesis concentrates in creating the calciner 3D-model frame with CFB3D-program and testing the model with two different example cases. Used input parameters and calciner geometry are Oviedo pilot plant design parameters. The calculation results give information about the process and show that pilot plant calciner should perform as planned. This Master’s Thesis is done in participation to EU FP7 project CaOling.

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Atomic structure of ZrO2 and B2O3 was investigated in this work. New data under extreme conditions (T = 3100 K) was obtained for the liquid ZrO2 structure. A fractional number of boron was investigated for glassy structure of B2O3. It was shown that it is possible to obtain an agreement for the fractional number between NMR and DFT techniques using a suitable initial configuration.

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Computational model-based simulation methods were developed for the modelling of bioaffinity assays. Bioaffinity-based methods are widely used to quantify a biological substance in biological research, development and in routine clinical in vitro diagnostics. Bioaffinity assays are based on the high affinity and structural specificity between the binding biomolecules. The simulation methods developed are based on the mechanistic assay model, which relies on the chemical reaction kinetics and describes the forming of a bound component as a function of time from the initial binding interaction. The simulation methods were focused on studying the behaviour and the reliability of bioaffinity assay and the possibilities the modelling methods of binding reaction kinetics provide, such as predicting assay results even before the binding reaction has reached equilibrium. For example, a rapid quantitative result from a clinical bioaffinity assay sample can be very significant, e.g. even the smallest elevation of a heart muscle marker reveals a cardiac injury. The simulation methods were used to identify critical error factors in rapid bioaffinity assays. A new kinetic calibration method was developed to calibrate a measurement system by kinetic measurement data utilizing only one standard concentration. A nodebased method was developed to model multi-component binding reactions, which have been a challenge to traditional numerical methods. The node-method was also used to model protein adsorption as an example of nonspecific binding of biomolecules. These methods have been compared with the experimental data from practice and can be utilized in in vitro diagnostics, drug discovery and in medical imaging.

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Filtration is a widely used unit operation in chemical engineering. The huge variation in the properties of materials to be ltered makes the study of ltration a challenging task. One of the objectives of this thesis was to show that conventional ltration theories are di cult to use when the system to be modelled contains all of the stages and features that are present in a complete solid/liquid separation process. Furthermore, most of the ltration theories require experimental work to be performed in order to obtain critical parameters required by the theoretical models. Creating a good overall understanding of how the variables a ect the nal product in ltration is somewhat impossible on a purely theoretical basis. The complexity of solid/liquid separation processes require experimental work and when tests are needed, it is advisable to use experimental design techniques so that the goals can be achieved. The statistical design of experiments provides the necessary tools for recognising the e ects of variables. It also helps to perform experimental work more economically. Design of experiments is a prerequisite for creating empirical models that can describe how the measured response is related to the changes in the values of the variable. A software package was developed that provides a ltration practitioner with experimental designs and calculates the parameters for linear regression models, along with the graphical representation of the responses. The developed software consists of two software modules. These modules are LTDoE and LTRead. The LTDoE module is used to create experimental designs for di erent lter types. The lter types considered in the software are automatic vertical pressure lter, double-sided vertical pressure lter, horizontal membrane lter press, vacuum belt lter and ceramic capillary action disc lter. It is also possible to create experimental designs for those cases where the variables are totally user de ned, say for a customized ltration cycle or di erent piece of equipment. The LTRead-module is used to read the experimental data gathered from the experiments, to analyse the data and to create models for each of the measured responses. Introducing the structure of the software more in detail and showing some of the practical applications is the main part of this thesis. This approach to the study of cake ltration processes, as presented in this thesis, has been shown to have good practical value when making ltration tests.

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The bioavailability of metals and their potential for environmental pollution depends not simply on total concentrations, but is to a great extent determined by their chemical form. Consequently, knowledge of aqueous metal species is essential in investigating potential metal toxicity and mobility. The overall aim of this thesis is, thus, to determine the species of major and trace elements and the size distribution among the different forms (e.g. ions, molecules and mineral particles) in selected metal-enriched Boreal river and estuarine systems by utilising filtration techniques and geochemical modelling. On the basis of the spatial physicochemical patterns found, the fractionation and complexation processes of elements (mainly related to input of humic matter and pH-change) were examined. Dissolved (<1 kDa), colloidal (1 kDa-0.45 μm) and particulate (>0.45 μm) size fractions of sulfate, organic carbon (OC) and 44 metals/metalloids were investigated in the extremely acidic Vörå River system and its estuary in W Finland, and in four river systems in SW Finland (Sirppujoki, Laajoki, Mynäjoki and Paimionjoki), largely affected by soil erosion and acid sulfate (AS) soils. In addition, geochemical modelling was used to predict the formation of free ions and complexes in these investigated waters. One of the most important findings of this study is that the very large amounts of metals known to be released from AS soils (including Al, Ca, Cd, Co, Cu, Mg, Mn, Na, Ni, Si, U and the lanthanoids) occur and can prevail mainly in toxic forms throughout acidic river systems; as free ions and/or sulfate-complexes. This has serious effects on the biota and especially dissolved Al is expected to have acute effects on fish and other organisms, but also other potentially toxic dissolved elements (e.g. Cd, Cu, Mn and Ni) can have fatal effects on the biota in these environments. In upstream areas that are generally relatively forested (higher pH and contents of OC) fewer bioavailable elements (including Al, Cu, Ni and U) may be found due to complexation with the more abundantly occurring colloidal OC. In the rivers in SW Finland total metal concentrations were relatively high, but most of the elements occurred largely in a colloidal or particulate form and even elements expected to be very soluble (Ca, K, Mg, Na and Sr) occurred to a large extent in colloidal form. According to geochemical modelling, these patterns may only to a limited extent be explained by in-stream metal complexation/adsorption. Instead there were strong indications that the high metal concentrations and dominant solid fractions were largely caused by erosion of metal bearing phyllosilicates. A strong influence of AS soils, known to exist in the catchment, could be clearly distinguished in the Sirppujoki River as it had very high concentrations of a metal sequence typical of AS soils in a dissolved form (Ba, Br, Ca, Cd, Co, K, Mg, Mn, Na, Ni, Rb and Sr). In the Paimionjoki River, metal concentrations (including Ba, Cs, Fe, Hf, Pb, Rb, Si, Th, Ti, Tl and V; not typical of AS soils in the area) were high, but it was found that the main cause of this was erosion of metal bearing phyllosilicates and thus these metals occurred dominantly in less toxic colloidal and particulate fractions. In the two nearby rivers (Laajoki and Mynäjoki) there was influence of AS soils, but it was largely masked by eroded phyllosilicates. Consequently, rivers draining clay plains sensitive to erosion, like those in SW Finland, have generally high background metal concentrations due to erosion. Thus, relying on only semi-dissolved (<0.45 μm) concentrations obtained in routine monitoring, or geochemical modelling based on such data, can lead to a great overestimation of the water toxicity in this environment. The potentially toxic elements that are of concern in AS soil areas will ultimately be precipitated in the recipient estuary or sea, where the acidic metalrich river water will gradually be diluted/neutralised with brackish seawater. Along such a rising pH gradient Al, Cu and U will precipitate first together with organic matter closest to the river mouth. Manganese is relatively persistent in solution and, thus, precipitates further down the estuary as Mn oxides together with elements such as Ba, Cd, Co, Cu and Ni. Iron oxides, on the contrary, are not important scavengers of metals in the estuary, they are predicted to be associated only with As and PO4.

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PURPOSE: To identify the predictive factors for voiding dysfunction after transobturator slings. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the records of all patients who underwent a transobturator sling between March 2003 and December 2008. A total of 514 women had available data with at least a six-week follow-up. Patients' demographics, preoperative symptoms, urodynamic testing including multichannel voiding studies and surgical variables were tabulated. Voiding dysfunction was defined by a catheterized or ultrasonographic postvoid residual greater than 100 cc (≥six weeks after the procedure) associated with any complaints of abnormal voiding. Univariate logistic regression analysis was performed with respect to postoperative voiding dysfunction. RESULTS: The patient population had a mean age of 58.5±12.9 years. Thirty-three out of 514 patients (6.4%) had postoperative voiding dysfunction according to our definition, and 4 (0.78%) required sling transection. No differences were observed between normal and dysfunctional voiders in age, associated prolapse surgery, preoperative postvoid residual, preoperative urinary flow rate, prior pelvic surgery, and menopausal status. Valsalva efforts during the preoperative pressure flow study was the only predictive factor for postoperative voiding dysfunction, 72.4% dysfunctional versus 27.6% normal (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: Preoperative Valsalva maneuver during the micturition could identify those at risk for voiding dysfunction after transobturator sling, and it should be noted during preoperative counseling.

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Purpose To compare the predictive capability of HPV and Pap smear tests for screening pre-cancerous lesions of the cervix over a three-year follow-up, in a population of users of the Brazilian National Health System (SUS). Methods This is a retrospective cohort study of 2,032 women with satisfactory results for Pap smear and HPV tests using second-generation hybrid capture,made in a previous study. We followed them for 36 months with data obtained from medical records, the Cervix Cancer Information System (SISCOLO), and the Mortality Information System (SIM). The outcome was a histological diagnosis of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or more advanced lesions (CIN2ş). We constructed progression curves of the baseline test results for the period, using the Kaplan-Meier method, and estimated sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, and positive and negative likelihood ratios for each test. Results A total of 1,440 women had at least one test during follow-up. Progression curves of the baseline test results indicated differences in capability to detect CIN2ş (p < 0.001) with significantly greater capability when both tests were abnormal, followed by only a positive HPV test. The HPV test was more sensitive than the Pap smear (88.7% and 73.6%, respectively; p < 0.05) and had a better negative likelihood ratio (0.13 and 0.30, respectively). Specificity and positive likelihood ratio of the tests were similar. Conclusions These findings corroborate the importance of HPV test as a primary cervical cancer screening.

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Tissue-based biomarkers are studied to receive information about the pathologic processes and cancer outcome, and to enable development of patient-tailored treatments. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential prognostic and/or predictive value of selected biomarkers in colorectal cancer (CRC). Group IIA secretory phospholipase A2 (IIA PLA2) expression was assessed in 114 samples presenting different phases of human colorectal carcinogenesis. Securin, Ki-67, CD44 variant 6 (CD44v6), aldehyde dehydrogenase 1 (ALDH1) and β-catenin were studied in a material including 227 rectal carcinoma patients treated with short-course preoperative radiotherapy (RT), long-course preoperative (chemo)RT (CRT) or surgery only. Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) gene copy number (GCN), its heterogeneity in CRC tissue, and association with response to EGFR-targeted antibodies cetuximab and panitumumab were analyzed in a cohort of 76 metastatic CRC. IIA PLA2 expression was decreased in invasive carcinomas compared to adenomas, but did not relate to patient survival. High securin expression after long-course (C)RT and high ALDH1 expression in node-negative rectal cancer were independent adverse prognostic factors, ALDH1 specifically in patients treated with adjuvant chemotherapy. The lack of membranous CD44v6 in the rectal cancer invasive front associated with infiltrative growth pattern and the risk of disease recurrence. Heterogeneous EGFR GCN increase predicted benefit from EGFR-targeted antibodies, also in the chemorefractory patient population. In summary, high securin and ALDH1 protein expression independently relate to poor outcome in subgroups of rectal cancer patients, potentially because of resistance to conventional chemotherapeutics. Heterogeneous increase in EGFR GCN was validated to be a promising predictive factor in the treatment of metastatic CRC.