Menopausal status: A possible predictive factor for recurrence in women with cancer of the uterine cervix without pelvic lymph node metastasis

Objectives: To evaluate risk factors for recurrence of carcinoma of the uterine cervix among women who had undergone radical hysterectomy without pelvic lymph node metastasis, while taking into consideration not only the classical histopathological factors but also sociodemographic, clinical and treatment-related factors. Study design: This was an exploratory analysis on 233 women with carcinoma of the uterine cervix (stages IB and IIA) who were treated by means of radical hysterectomy and pelvic lymphadenectomy, with free surgical margins and without lymph node metastases on conventional histopathological examination. Women with histologically normal lymph nodes but with micrometastases in the immunohistochemical analysis (AE1/AE3) were excluded. Disease-free survival for sociodemographic, clinical and histopathological variables was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify the independent risk factors for recurrence. Results: Twenty-seven recurrences were recorded (11.6%), of which 18 were pelvic, four were distant, four were pelvic + distant and one was of unknown location. The five-year disease-free survival rate among the study population was 88.4%. The independent risk factors for recurrence in the multivariate analysis were: postmenopausal status (HR 14.1; 95% CI: 3.7-53.6; P < 0.001), absence of or slight inflammatory reaction (HR 7.9; 95% CI: 1.7-36.5; P = 0.008) and invasion of the deepest third of the cervix (FIR 6.1; 95% CI: 1.3-29.1; P = 0.021). Postoperative radiotherapy was identified as a protective factor against recurrence (HR 0.02; 95% CI: 0.001-0.25; P = 0.003). Conclusion: Postmenopausal status is a possible independent risk factor for recurrence even when adjusted for classical prognostic factors (such as tumour size, depth of turnout invasion, capillary embolisation) and treatment-related factors (period of treatment and postoperative radiotherapy status). (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of a predictive model for food insecurity estimates in Brazil

In 2004 the National Household Survey (Pesquisa Nacional par Amostras de Domicilios - PNAD) estimated the prevalence of food and nutrition insecurity in Brazil. However, PNAD data cannot be disaggregated at the municipal level. The objective of this study was to build a statistical model to predict severe food insecurity for Brazilian municipalities based on the PNAD dataset. Exclusion criteria were: incomplete food security data (19.30%); informants younger than 18 years old (0.07%); collective households (0.05%); households headed by indigenous persons (0.19%). The modeling was carried out in three stages, beginning with the selection of variables related to food insecurity using univariate logistic regression. The variables chosen to construct the municipal estimates were selected from those included in PNAD as well as the 2000 Census. Multivariate logistic regression was then initiated, removing the non-significant variables with odds ratios adjusted by multiple logistic regression. The Wald Test was applied to check the significance of the coefficients in the logistic equation. The final model included the variables: per capita income; years of schooling; race and gender of the household head; urban or rural residence; access to public water supply; presence of children; total number of household inhabitants and state of residence. The adequacy of the model was tested using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p=0.561) and ROC curve (area=0.823). Tests indicated that the model has strong predictive power and can be used to determine household food insecurity in Brazilian municipalities, suggesting that similar predictive models may be useful tools in other Latin American countries.

Coding behavioural data for cladistic analysis: using dynamic homology without parsimony

Many of the controversies around the concept of homology rest on the subjectivity inherent to primary homology propositions. Dynamic homology partially solves this problem, but there has been up to now scant application of it outside of the molecular domain. This is probably because morphological and behavioural characters are rich in properties, connections and qualities, so that there is less space for conflicting character delimitations. Here we present a new method for the direct optimization of behavioural data, a method that relies on the richness of this database to delimit the characters, and on dynamic procedures to establish character state identity. We use between-species congruence in the data matrix and topological stability to choose the best cladogram. We test the methodology using sequences of predatory behaviour in a group of spiders that evolved the highly modified predatory technique of spitting glue onto prey. The cladogram recovered is fully compatible with previous analyses in the literature, and thus the method seems consistent. Besides the advantage of enhanced objectivity in character proposition, the new procedure allows the use of complex, context-dependent behavioural characters in an evolutionary framework, an important step towards the practical integration of the evolutionary and ecological perspectives on diversity. (C) The Willi Hennig Society 2010.

The non-coding RNA BC1 is down-regulated in the hippocampus of Wistar Audiogenic Rat (WAR) strain after audiogenic kindling

The aim of this study was to identify molecular pathways involved in audiogenic seizures in the epilepsy-prone Wistar Audiogenic Rat (WAR). For this, we used a suppression-subtractive hybridization (SSH) library from the hippocampus of WARs coupled to microarray comparative gene expression analysis, followed by Northern blot validation of individual genes. We discovered that the levels of the non-protein coding (npc) RNA BC1 were significantly reduced in the hippocampus of WARs submitted to repeated audiogenic seizures (audiogenic kindling) when compared to Wistar resistant rats and to both naive WARs and Wistars. By quantitative in situ hybridization, we verified lower levels of BC1 RNA in the GD-hilus and significant signal ratio reduction in the stratum radiatum and stratum pyramidale of hippocampal CA3 subfield of audiogenic kindled animals. Functional results recently obtained in a BC1-/- mouse model and our current data are supportive of a potential disruption in signaling pathways, upstream of BC1, associated with the seizure susceptibility of WARs. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Survey on Graphical Methods for Classification Predictive Performance Evaluation

Predictive performance evaluation is a fundamental issue in design, development, and deployment of classification systems. As predictive performance evaluation is a multidimensional problem, single scalar summaries such as error rate, although quite convenient due to its simplicity, can seldom evaluate all the aspects that a complete and reliable evaluation must consider. Due to this, various graphical performance evaluation methods are increasingly drawing the attention of machine learning, data mining, and pattern recognition communities. The main advantage of these types of methods resides in their ability to depict the trade-offs between evaluation aspects in a multidimensional space rather than reducing these aspects to an arbitrarily chosen (and often biased) single scalar measure. Furthermore, to appropriately select a suitable graphical method for a given task, it is crucial to identify its strengths and weaknesses. This paper surveys various graphical methods often used for predictive performance evaluation. By presenting these methods in the same framework, we hope this paper may shed some light on deciding which methods are more suitable to use in different situations.

PK/DB: database for pharmacokinetic properties and predictive in silico ADME models

The study of pharmacokinetic properties (PK) is of great importance in drug discovery and development. In the present work, PK/DB (a new freely available database for PK) was designed with the aim of creating robust databases for pharmacokinetic studies and in silico absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion (ADME) prediction. Comprehensive, web-based and easy to access, PK/DB manages 1203 compounds which represent 2973 pharmacokinetic measurements, including five models for in silico ADME prediction (human intestinal absorption, human oral bioavailability, plasma protein binding, bloodbrain barrier and water solubility).

Single Synapse Information Coding in Intraburst Spike Patterns of Central Pattern Generator Motor Neurons

Burst firing is ubiquitous in nervous systems and has been intensively studied in central pattern generators (CPGs). Previous works have described subtle intraburst spike patterns (IBSPs) that, despite being traditionally neglected for their lack of relation to CPG motor function, were shown to be cell-type specific and sensitive to CPG connectivity. Here we address this matter by investigating how a bursting motor neuron expresses information about other neurons in the network. We performed experiments on the crustacean stomatogastric pyloric CPG, both in control conditions and interacting in real-time with computer model neurons. The sensitivity of postsynaptic to presynaptic IBSPs was inferred by computing their average mutual information along each neuron burst. We found that details of input patterns are nonlinearly and inhomogeneously coded through a single synapse into the fine IBSPs structure of the postsynaptic neuron following burst. In this way, motor neurons are able to use different time scales to convey two types of information simultaneously: muscle contraction (related to bursting rhythm) and the behavior of other CPG neurons (at a much shorter timescale by using IBSPs as information carriers). Moreover, the analysis revealed that the coding mechanism described takes part in a previously unsuspected information pathway from a CPG motor neuron to a nerve that projects to sensory brain areas, thus providing evidence of the general physiological role of information coding through IBSPs in the regulation of neuronal firing patterns in remote circuits by the CNS.

Recording from Two Neurons: Second-Order Stimulus Reconstruction from Spike Trains and Population Coding

We study the reconstruction of visual stimuli from spike trains, representing the reconstructed stimulus by a Volterra series up to second order. We illustrate this procedure in a prominent example of spiking neurons, recording simultaneously from the two H1 neurons located in the lobula plate of the fly Chrysomya megacephala. The fly views two types of stimuli, corresponding to rotational and translational displacements. Second-order reconstructions require the manipulation of potentially very large matrices, which obstructs the use of this approach when there are many neurons. We avoid the computation and inversion of these matrices using a convenient set of basis functions to expand our variables in. This requires approximating the spike train four-point functions by combinations of two-point functions similar to relations, which would be true for gaussian stochastic processes. In our test case, this approximation does not reduce the quality of the reconstruction. The overall contribution to stimulus reconstruction of the second-order kernels, measured by the mean squared error, is only about 5% of the first-order contribution. Yet at specific stimulus-dependent instants, the addition of second-order kernels represents up to 100% improvement, but only for rotational stimuli. We present a perturbative scheme to facilitate the application of our method to weakly correlated neurons.

Intrinsically Multivariate Predictive Genes

Canalizing genes possess such broad regulatory power, and their action sweeps across a such a wide swath of processes that the full set of affected genes are not highly correlated under normal conditions. When not active, the controlling gene will not be predictable to any significant degree by its subject genes, either alone or in groups, since their behavior will be highly varied relative to the inactive controlling gene. When the controlling gene is active, its behavior is not well predicted by any one of its targets, but can be very well predicted by groups of genes under its control. To investigate this question, we introduce in this paper the concept of intrinsically multivariate predictive (IMP) genes, and present a mathematical study of IMP in the context of binary genes with respect to the coefficient of determination (CoD), which measures the predictive power of a set of genes with respect to a target gene. A set of predictor genes is said to be IMP for a target gene if all properly contained subsets of the predictor set are bad predictors of the target but the full predictor set predicts the target with great accuracy. We show that logic of prediction, predictive power, covariance between predictors, and the entropy of the joint probability distribution of the predictors jointly affect the appearance of IMP genes. In particular, we show that high-predictive power, small covariance among predictors, a large entropy of the joint probability distribution of predictors, and certain logics, such as XOR in the 2-predictor case, are factors that favor the appearance of IMP. The IMP concept is applied to characterize the behavior of the gene DUSP1, which exhibits control over a central, process-integrating signaling pathway, thereby providing preliminary evidence that IMP can be used as a criterion for discovery of canalizing genes.

Identification of protein-coding and intronic noncoding RNAs down-regulated in clear cell renal carcinoma

The clear cell subtype of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) is the most lethal and prevalent cancer of the urinary system. To investigate the molecular changes associated with malignant transformation in clear cell RCC, the gene expression profiles of matched samples of tumor and adjacent non-neoplastic tissue were obtained from six patients. A custom-built cDNA microarray platform was used, comprising 2292 probes that map to exons of genes and 822 probes for noncoding RNAs mapping to intronic regions. Intronic transcription was detected in all normal and neoplastic renal tissues. A subset of 55 transcripts was significantly down-regulated in clear cell RCC relative to the matched nontumor tissue as determined by a combination of two statistical tests and leave-one-out patient cross-validation. Among the down-regulated transcripts, 49 mapped to untranslated or coding exons and 6 were intronic relative to known exons of protein-coding genes. Lower levels of expression of SIN3B, TRIP3, SYNJ2BP and NDE1 (P<0.02), and of intronic transcripts derived from SND1 and ACTN4 loci (P<0.05), were confirmed in clear cell RCC by Real-time RT-PCR. A subset of 25 transcripts was deregulated in additional six nonclear cell RCC samples, pointing to common transcriptional alterations in RCC irrespective of the histological subtype or differentiation state of the tumor. Our results indicate a novel set of tumor suppressor gene candidates, including noncoding intronic RNAs, which may play a significant role in malignant transformations of normal renal cells. (C) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Predictive models for chronic renal disease using decision trees, naïve bayes and case-based methods

Data mining can be used in healthcare industry to “mine” clinical data to discover hidden information for intelligent and affective decision making. Discovery of hidden patterns and relationships often goes intact, yet advanced data mining techniques can be helpful as remedy to this scenario. This thesis mainly deals with Intelligent Prediction of Chronic Renal Disease (IPCRD). Data covers blood, urine test, and external symptoms applied to predict chronic renal disease. Data from the database is initially transformed to Weka (3.6) and Chi-Square method is used for features section. After normalizing data, three classifiers were applied and efficiency of output is evaluated. Mainly, three classifiers are analyzed: Decision Tree, Naïve Bayes, K-Nearest Neighbour algorithm. Results show that each technique has its unique strength in realizing the objectives of the defined mining goals. Efficiency of Decision Tree and KNN was almost same but Naïve Bayes proved a comparative edge over others. Further sensitivity and specificity tests are used as statistical measures to examine the performance of a binary classification. Sensitivity (also called recall rate in some fields) measures the proportion of actual positives which are correctly identified while Specificity measures the proportion of negatives which are correctly identified. CRISP-DM methodology is applied to build the mining models. It consists of six major phases: business understanding, data understanding, data preparation, modeling, evaluation, and deployment.

Reservoir Management For Flood And Drought Protection Using Infinite Horizon Model Predictive Control

Model Predictive Control (MPC) is a control method that solves in real time an optimal control problem over a finite horizon. The finiteness of the horizon is both the reason of MPC's success and its main limitation. In operational water resources management, MPC has been in fact successfully employed for controlling systems with a relatively short memory, such as canals, where the horizon length is not an issue. For reservoirs, which have generally a longer memory, MPC applications are presently limited to short term management only. Short term reservoir management can be effectively used to deal with fast process, such as floods, but it is not capable of looking sufficiently ahead to handle long term issues, such as drought. To overcome this limitation, we propose an Infinite Horizon MPC (IH-MPC) solution that is particularly suitable for reservoir management. We propose to structure the input signal by use of orthogonal basis functions, therefore reducing the optimization argument to a finite number of variables, and making the control problem solvable in a reasonable time. We applied this solution for the management of the Manantali Reservoir. Manantali is a yearly reservoir located in Mali, on the Senegal river, affecting water systems of Mali, Senegal, and Mauritania. The long term horizon offered by IH-MPC is necessary to deal with the strongly seasonal climate of the region.

Study of the audio coding algorithm of the MPEG-4 AAC standard and comparison among implementations of modules of the algorithm

Audio coding is used to compress digital audio signals, thereby reducing the amount of bits needed to transmit or to store an audio signal. This is useful when network bandwidth or storage capacity is very limited. Audio compression algorithms are based on an encoding and decoding process. In the encoding step, the uncompressed audio signal is transformed into a coded representation, thereby compressing the audio signal. Thereafter, the coded audio signal eventually needs to be restored (e.g. for playing back) through decoding of the coded audio signal. The decoder receives the bitstream and reconverts it into an uncompressed signal. ISO-MPEG is a standard for high-quality, low bit-rate video and audio coding. The audio part of the standard is composed by algorithms for high-quality low-bit-rate audio coding, i.e. algorithms that reduce the original bit-rate, while guaranteeing high quality of the audio signal. The audio coding algorithms consists of MPEG-1 (with three different layers), MPEG-2, MPEG-2 AAC, and MPEG-4. This work presents a study of the MPEG-4 AAC audio coding algorithm. Besides, it presents the implementation of the AAC algorithm on different platforms, and comparisons among implementations. The implementations are in C language, in Assembly of Intel Pentium, in C-language using DSP processor, and in HDL. Since each implementation has its own application niche, each one is valid as a final solution. Moreover, another purpose of this work is the comparison among these implementations, considering estimated costs, execution time, and advantages and disadvantages of each one.

Forecasting Brazilian inflation by its aggregate and disaggregated data: a test of predictive power by forecast horizon

This work aims to compare the forecast efficiency of different types of methodologies applied to Brazilian Consumer inflation (IPCA). We will compare forecasting models using disaggregated and aggregated data over twelve months ahead. The disaggregated models were estimated by SARIMA and will have different levels of disaggregation. Aggregated models will be estimated by time series techniques such as SARIMA, state-space structural models and Markov-switching. The forecasting accuracy comparison will be made by the selection model procedure known as Model Confidence Set and by Diebold-Mariano procedure. We were able to find evidence of forecast accuracy gains in models using more disaggregated data

DNA bar-coding reveals source and patterns of Thaumastocoris peregrinus invasions in South Africa and South America

Thaumastocoris peregrinus is a recently introduced invertebrate pest of non-native Eucalyptus plantations in the Southern Hemisphere. It was first reported from South Africa in 2003 and in Argentina in 2005. Since then, populations have grown explosively and it has attained an almost ubiquitous distribution over several regions in South Africa on 26 Eucalyptus species. Here we address three key questions regarding this invasion, namely whether only one species has been introduced, whether there were single or multiple introductions into South Africa and South America and what the source of the introduction might have been. To answer these questions, bar-coding using mitochondrial DNA (COI) sequence diversity was used to characterise the populations of this insect from Australia, Argentina, Brazil, South Africa and Uruguay. Analyses revealed three cryptic species in Australia, of which only T. peregrinus is represented in South Africa and South America. Thaumastocoris peregrinus populations contained eight haplotypes, with a pairwise nucleotide distance of 0.2-0.9% from seventeen locations in Australia. Three of these haplotypes are shared with populations in South America and South Africa, but the latter regions do not share haplotypes. These data, together with the current distribution of the haplotypes and the known direction of original spread in these regions, suggest that at least three distinct introductions of the insect occurred in South Africa and South America before 2005. The two most common haplotypes in Sydney, one of which was also found in Brisbane, are shared with the non-native regions. Sydney populations of T. peregrinus, which have regularly reached outbreak levels in recent years, might thus have served as source of these three distinct introductions into other regions of the Southern Hemisphere.