On the Qualitative Comparison of Decisions Having Positive and Negative Features

Making a decision is often a matter of listing and comparing positive and negative arguments. In such cases, the evaluation scale for decisions should be considered bipolar, that is, negative and positive values should be explicitly distinguished. That is what is done, for example, in Cumulative Prospect Theory. However, contrary to the latter framework that presupposes genuine numerical assessments, human agents often decide on the basis of an ordinal ranking of the pros and the cons, and by focusing on the most salient arguments. In other terms, the decision process is qualitative as well as bipolar. In this article, based on a bipolar extension of possibility theory, we define and axiomatically characterize several decision rules tailored for the joint handling of positive and negative arguments in an ordinal setting. The simplest rules can be viewed as extensions of the maximin and maximax criteria to the bipolar case, and consequently suffer from poor decisive power. More decisive rules that refine the former are also proposed. These refinements agree both with principles of efficiency and with the spirit of order-of-magnitude reasoning, that prevails in qualitative decision theory. The most refined decision rule uses leximin rankings of the pros and the cons, and the ideas of counting arguments of equal strength and cancelling pros by cons. It is shown to come down to a special case of Cumulative Prospect Theory, and to subsume the “Take the Best” heuristic studied by cognitive psychologists.

Which patients with renal colic should be referred?

Around 1-2 people per thousand present with an acute episode of pain caused by renal stones each year. Renal colic is classically sudden in onset, unilateral, and radiates from loin to groin. Renal pelvic or upper ureteric stones usually cause more flank pain and tenderness while lower ureteric stones cause pain radiating towards the ipsilateral testicle or labia. Other common symptoms include nausea and vomiting, haematuria and irritative LUTS. A febrile patient with renal colic requires immediate hospital admission. Symptoms suggestive of renal colic along with a positive dipstick for haematuria have a reported sensitivity of 84% and specificity of 99% but it is important to consider other differential diagnoses. An NSAID is preferred over an opiate drug as an initial analgesic choice as the NSAID can help reduce ureteric spasm. Diclofenac has the best evidence base for this class of analgesic. About 90% of stones will pass spontaneously and thus it is often appropriate to manage renal colic at home. Patients with signs of peritonitis, systemic infection, septic shock as well as those whose diagnosis is unclear should be referred urgently to hospital. Patients who are systemically unwell with renal stones are more likely to have an infected and obstructed urinary tract system that needs urgent imaging and possible drainage. All patients who are managed at home should have renal tract imaging within a week by fast track referral to radiology or as an urgent urology outpatient referral as per local guidelines to rule out an obstructed urinary system. Patients with recurrent stones should be advised to maintain a copious fluid intake (>2 L/day) to reduce the concentration of the urine. A reduction in salt intake (ideally

A retrospective study of the behavioural and psychological symptoms of mid and late phase Alzheimer's disease

To document the behavioural and psychological symptoms in patients with a diagnosis of established Alzheimer's disease (AD) for at least 3 years.

Genome-wide association study of Alzheimer's disease with psychotic symptoms

Psychotic symptoms occur in ~40% of subjects with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and are associated with more rapid cognitive decline and increased functional deficits. They show heritability up to 61% and have been proposed as a marker for a disease subtype suitable for gene mapping efforts. We undertook a combined analysis of three genome-wide association studies (GWASs) to identify loci that (1) increase susceptibility to an AD and subsequent psychotic symptoms; or (2) modify risk of psychotic symptoms in the presence of neurodegeneration caused by AD. In all, 1299 AD cases with psychosis (AD+P), 735 AD cases without psychosis (AD-P) and 5659 controls were drawn from Genetic and Environmental Risk in AD Consortium 1 (GERAD1), the National Institute on Aging Late-Onset Alzheimer's Disease (NIA-LOAD) family study and the University of Pittsburgh Alzheimer Disease Research Center (ADRC) GWASs. Unobserved genotypes were imputed to provide data on >1.8 million single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Analyses in each data set were completed comparing (1) AD+P to AD-P cases, and (2) AD+P cases with controls (GERAD1, ADRC only). Aside from the apolipoprotein E (APOE) locus, the strongest evidence for association was observed in an intergenic region on chromosome 4 (rs753129; 'AD+PvAD-P' P=2.85 × 10(-7); 'AD+PvControls' P=1.11 × 10(-4)). SNPs upstream of SLC2A9 (rs6834555, P=3.0 × 10(-7)) and within VSNL1 (rs4038131, P=5.9 × 10(-7)) showed strongest evidence for association with AD+P when compared with controls. These findings warrant further investigation in larger, appropriately powered samples in which the presence of psychotic symptoms in AD has been well characterized.Molecular Psychiatry advance online publication, 18 October 2011; doi:10.1038/mp.2011.125.

A whole-genome massively parallel sequencing analysis of BRCA1 mutant oestrogen receptor-negative and -positive breast cancers

BRCA1 encodes a tumour suppressor protein that plays pivotal roles in homologous recombination (HR) DNA repair, cell-cycle checkpoints, and transcriptional regulation. BRCA1 germline mutations confer a high risk of early-onset breast and ovarian cancer. In more than 80% of cases, tumours arising in BRCA1 germline mutation carriers are oestrogen receptor (ER)-negative; however, up to 15% are ER-positive. It has been suggested that BRCA1 ER-positive breast cancers constitute sporadic cancers arising in the context of a BRCA1 germline mutation rather than being causally related to BRCA1 loss-of-function. Whole-genome massively parallel sequencing of ER-positive and ER-negative BRCA1 breast cancers, and their respective germline DNAs, was used to characterize the genetic landscape of BRCA1 cancers at base-pair resolution. Only BRCA1 germline mutations, somatic loss of the wild-type allele, and TP53 somatic mutations were recurrently found in the index cases. BRCA1 breast cancers displayed a mutational signature consistent with that caused by lack of HR DNA repair in both ER-positive and ER-negative cases. Sequencing analysis of independent cohorts of hereditary BRCA1 and sporadic non-BRCA1 breast cancers for the presence of recurrent pathogenic mutations and/or homozygous deletions found in the index cases revealed that DAPK3, TMEM135, KIAA1797, PDE4D, and GATA4 are potential additional drivers of breast cancers. This study demonstrates that BRCA1 pathogenic germline mutations coupled with somatic loss of the wild-type allele are not sufficient for hereditary breast cancers to display an ER-negative phenotype, and has led to the identification of three potential novel breast cancer genes (ie DAPK3, TMEM135, and GATA4).

Rapid differentiation between fluconazole-sensitive and -resistant species of Candida directly from positive blood-culture bottles by real-time PCR

In view of both the delay in obtaining identification by conventional methods following blood-culture positivity in patients with candidaemia and the close relationship between species and fluconazole (FLC) susceptibility, early speciation of positive blood cultures has the potential to influence therapeutic decisions. The aim was to develop a rapid test to differentiate FLC-resistant from FLC-sensitive Candida species. Three TaqMan-based real-time PCR assays were developed to identify up to six Candida species directly from BacT/Alert blood-culture bottles that showed yeast cells on Gram staining at the time of initial positivity. Target sequences in the rRNA gene complex were amplified, using a consensus two-step PCR protocol, to identify Candida albicans, Candida parapsilosis, Candida tropicalis, Candida dubliniensis, Candida glabrata and Candida krusei; these are the most commonly encountered Candida species in blood cultures. The first four of these (the characteristically FLC-sensitive group) were identified in a single reaction tube using one fluorescent TaqMan probe targeting 1 8S rRNA sequences conserved in the four species. The FLC-resistant species C. krusei and C. glabrata were detected in two further reactions, each with species-specific probes. This method was validated with clinical specimens (blood cultures) positive for yeast (n=33 sets) and the results were 100% concordant with those of phenotypic identification carried out concomitantly. The reported assay significantly reduces the time required to identify the presence of C. glabrata and C. krusei in comparison with a conventional phenotypic method, from ~72 to

Optimizing the balance between false positive and false negative error probabilities of confirmatory methods for the detection of veterinary drug residues

GC-MS data on veterinary drug residues in bovine urine are used for controlling the illegal practice of fattening cattle. According to current detection criteria, peak patterns of preferably four ions should agree within 10 or 20% from a corresponding standard pattern. These criteria are rigid, rather arbitrary and do not match daily practice. A new model, based on multivariate modeling of log peak abundance ratios, provides a theoretical basis for the identification of analytes and optimizes the balance between the avoidance of false positives and false negatives. The performance of the model is demonstrated on data provided by five laboratories, each supplying GC-MS measurements on the detection of clenbuterol, dienestrol and 19 beta-nortestosterone in urine. The proposed model shows a better performance than confirmation by using the current criteria and provides a statistical basis for inspection criteria in terms of error probabilities.

Optimization of an ether series of mGluR5 positive allosteric modulators: Molecular determinants of MPEP site interaction crossover

We report the optimization of a series of non-MPEP site metabotropic glutamate receptor 5 (mGlu5) pos. allosteric modulators (PAMs) based on a simple acyclic ether series. Modifications led to a gain of MPEP site interaction through incorporation of a chiral amide in conjunction with a nicotinamide core. A highly potent PAM, 8v (VU0404251), was shown to be efficacious in a rodent model of psychosis. These studies suggest that potent PAMs within topol. similar chemotypes can be developed to preferentially interact or not interact with the MPEP allosteric binding site.

PROBLEM-SOLVING IN SCHIZOPHRENIA - A SPECIFIC DEFICIT IN PLANNING ABILITY

The study investigated problem solving ability in schizophrenia. Thirty DSM-IIIR schizophrenic patients and 27 matched normal controls were tested on the Three-Dimensional Computerised Tower of London Test (3-D CTL Test) (Morris et al., 1993). The patients took significantly more moves to solve a series of problems and solved significantly fewer problems in the predetermined minimum number of moves. The patients response times, as measured using a control version of the task (the 3-D CTL Control), were longer than those of the controls. However, when latencies were adjusted to take into account the slower responses overall, the patients planning times were not significantly increased. Inaccurate planning, as defined by taking more moves, did not correlate with either positive or negative symptoms, but the response times tended to be longer in patients who had more negative symptoms. The findings suggest that there is a deficit in problem solving activity in schizophrenia that may be associated with translating 'willed intentions' into action, independent of slower motor speed.

Illness perception clusters at diagnosis predict psychological distress among women with breast cancer at 6 months post-diagnosis.

OBJECTIVE:

This study aimed to examine the extent to which illness perceptions and coping strategies among women diagnosed with breast cancer explain psychological distress at diagnosis and at 6?months post diagnosis relative to demographic and illness-related variables.

METHODS:

Women were recruited to the study shortly after diagnosis. A total of 90 women completed study materials (Illness Perception Questionnaire-Revised, the Cancer Coping Questionnaire and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale) at time 1. The same questionnaires were sent approximately 6?months later to those who had consented at time 1, and completed questionnaires were returned by 72 women.

RESULTS:

Cluster analysis was used to identify groups of respondents who reported a similar profile of illness perception scores. Regression analysis demonstrated that one of these clusters was more likely to experience psychological distress than the other both at diagnosis and at 6?months post diagnosis. Illness perception cluster membership and positive focus type coping were the most important and consistent predictors of lower psychological distress at diagnosis and at 6?months post diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS:

Illness perceptions remained relatively stable over the study period, and therefore we are unable to clarify whether changes in illness cognitions are associated with a corresponding change in psychological symptoms. Future research should evaluate the impact on psychological distress of interventions specifically designed to modify illness cognitions among women with breast cancer.

Stress, Positive Psychology and the National Student Survey

The aim was to explore the predictive ability of sources of stress and a range of dispositional and coping behaviours on student satisfaction and motivation. Most research exploring sources of stress and coping in students construes stress as psychological distress, with little attempt to consider positive experiences of stress. A questionnaire was administered to 120 first-year UK psychology students. Questions were asked which measured sources of stress when rated as likely to contribute to distress (a hassle) and likely to help one achieve (an uplift). The sources of stress were amended from the UK National Student Survey (NSS, 2011). Support, control, self-efficacy, personality and coping style were also measured, along with their potential affect on
course satisfaction, motivation and feeling part of a learning community. The sources of stress likely to lead to distress were more often significant than sources of stress likely to lead to positive, eustress states. Ironically,
factors one would consider would help students, such as the university support facilities, only did so when rated as a hassle, not as an uplift. Published university league tables draw heavily on student course satisfaction but this negatively correlated with intellectual motivation and feeling part of a learning
community. This suggests course satisfaction alone reveals an incomplete picture of the student experience. Course educators need to consider how course experiences contribute not just to potential distress but to
potential eustress. Teaching quality, effective support and work-life balance are key to student satisfaction and motivation. How educators interact with their students and the opportunities they create in and outside the class to promote peer support are likely to enhance satisfaction and motivation.