Paths to peace: conflict management trajectories in militarized interstate disputes

When multiple third-parties (states, coalitions, and international organizations) intervene in the same conflict, do their efforts inform one another? Anecdotal evidence suggests such a possibility, but research to date has not attempted to model this interdependence directly. The current project breaks with that tradition. In particular, it proposes three competing explanations of how previous intervention efforts affect current intervention decisions: a cost model (and a variant on it, a limited commitments model), a learning model, and a random model. After using a series of Markov transition (regime-switching) models to evaluate conflict management behavior within militarized interstate disputes in the 1946-2001 period, this study concludes that third-party intervention efforts inform one another. More specifically, third-parties examine previous efforts and balance their desire to manage conflict with their need to minimize intervention costs (the cost and limited commitments models). As a result, third-parties intervene regularly using verbal pleas and mediation, but rely significantly less frequently on legal, administrative, or peace operations strategies. This empirical threshold to the intervention costs that third-parties are willing to bear has strong theoretical foundations and holds across different time periods and third-party actors. Furthermore, the analysis indicates that the first third-party to intervene in a conflict is most likely to use a strategy designed to help the disputants work toward a resolution of their dispute. After this initial intervention, the level of third-party involvement declines and often devolves into a series of verbal pleas for peace. Such findings cumulatively suggest that disputants hold the key to effective conflict management. If the disputants adopt and maintain an extreme bargaining position or fail to encourage third-parties to accept greater intervention costs, their dispute will receive little more than verbal pleas for negotiations and peace.

HOLDING HANDS WHILE PARTING WAYS: EXAMINING ALLIANCE TREATY RENEGOTIATION

This study investigates the renegotiation of security alliances, specifically the structural conditions surrounding their revision. Although the field of international relations offers a rich discussion of the formation and violation of alliance treaties, few scholars have addressed the reasons why alliance members amend security obligations. After the formation of an alliance, a member may become dissatisfied owing to changes in the external and domestic security environments. A failure to address this discontent increases the risk of alliance breakdown. Members manage their alliance relationship through a negotiation process or intra-alliance bargaining in the search for a new arrangement that can endure. Factors that help to show commitment to the alliance and communicate a set of feasible solutions are crucial if members are to find a mutually acceptable arrangement. By taking these factors into account, allies are more likely to revise an existing treaty. Examining a set of bilateral alliances dating from 1945 to 2001, this research demonstrates that public requests for renegotiation compel allies to change the status quo. It is found that alliance-related fixed assets and the formation of external alliances increase the likelihood of treaty revision, though institutionalization of an alliance does not help to resolve interest divergence. In addition, this study examines the strategy of delay in intra-alliance bargaining. Allies may postpone a dispute by ignoring it while working to maintain the alliance. Tension among allies thus increases, but the alliance endures. I examine three alliances in order to illustrate this renegotiation process. Among these, the Anglo-Japanese alliance demonstrates two successful renegotiations that prolonged a wavering alliance relationship; the Sino-Soviet alliance is an example of failure owing to the lack of substantive cooperation; and the US-Taiwan alliance during the 1970s demonstrates successful use of a strategy of delay that appeases a dissatisfied member.

States' Responding Behavior in Conflict: Asymmetric Response and Strategic Conflict Avoidance

State responses to external threats and aggression are studied with focus on two different rationales: (1) to make credible deterrent threats to avoid being exploited, and (2) to minimize the risk of escalation to unwanted war. Given external aggression, the target state's responding behavior has three possibilities: concession (under-response), reciprocation, and escalation. This study focuses on the first two possibilities and investigates how the strategic nature of crisis interaction can explain the intentional choice of concession or avoidance of retaliation. I build a two-level bargaining model that accounts for the domestic bargaining situation between the leader and the challenger for each state. The model's equilibrium shows that the responding behavior is determined not only by inter-state level variables (e.g. balance of power between two states, or cost of war that each state is supposed to pay), but also the domestic variables of both states. Next, the strategic interaction is rationally explained by the model: as the responding state believes that the initiating state has strong domestic challenges and, hence, the aggression is believed to be initiated for domestic political purposes (a rally-around-the-flag effect), the response tends to decrease. The concession is also predicted if the target state leader has strong bargaining power against her domestic challengers \emph{and} she believes that the initiating leader suffers from weak domestic standing. To test the model's prediction, I conduct a lab experiment and case studies. The experimental result shows that under an incentivized bargaining situation, individual actors are observed to react to hostile action as the model predicts: if the opponent is believed to suffer from internally driven difficulties, the subject will not punish hostile behavior of the other player as severely as she would without such a belief. The experiment also provides supporting evidence for the choice of concession: when the player finds herself in a favorable situation while the other has disadvantages, the player is more likely to make concessions in the controlled dictator game. Two cases are examined to discuss how the model can explain the choice of either reciprocation or concession. From personal interviews and fieldwork in South Korea, I find that South Korea's reciprocating behavior during the 2010 Yeonpyeong Island incident is explained by a combination of `low domestic power of initiating leader (Kim Jong-il)' and `low domestic power of responding leader (Lee Myung-bak).' On the other hand, the case of EC-121 is understood as a non-response or concession outcome. Declassified documents show that Nixon and his key advisors interpreted the attack as a result of North Korea's domestic political instabilities (low domestic power of initiating leader) and that Nixon did not have difficulties at domestic politics during the first few months of his presidency (high domestic power of responding leader).

Essays on optimal fiscal and monetary policies

Cette thèse se compose de trois articles sur les politiques budgétaires et monétaires optimales. Dans le premier article, J'étudie la détermination conjointe de la politique budgétaire et monétaire optimale dans un cadre néo-keynésien avec les marchés du travail frictionnels, de la monnaie et avec distortion des taux d'imposition du revenu du travail. Dans le premier article, je trouve que lorsque le pouvoir de négociation des travailleurs est faible, la politique Ramsey-optimale appelle à un taux optimal d'inflation annuel significativement plus élevé, au-delà de 9.5%, qui est aussi très volatile, au-delà de 7.4%. Le gouvernement Ramsey utilise l'inflation pour induire des fluctuations efficaces dans les marchés du travail, malgré le fait que l'évolution des prix est coûteuse et malgré la présence de la fiscalité du travail variant dans le temps. Les résultats quantitatifs montrent clairement que le planificateur s'appuie plus fortement sur l'inflation, pas sur l'impôts, pour lisser les distorsions dans l'économie au cours du cycle économique. En effet, il ya un compromis tout à fait clair entre le taux optimal de l'inflation et sa volatilité et le taux d'impôt sur le revenu optimal et sa variabilité. Le plus faible est le degré de rigidité des prix, le plus élevé sont le taux d'inflation optimal et la volatilité de l'inflation et le plus faible sont le taux d'impôt optimal sur le revenu et la volatilité de l'impôt sur le revenu. Pour dix fois plus petit degré de rigidité des prix, le taux d'inflation optimal et sa volatilité augmentent remarquablement, plus de 58% et 10%, respectivement, et le taux d'impôt optimal sur le revenu et sa volatilité déclinent de façon spectaculaire. Ces résultats sont d'une grande importance étant donné que dans les modèles frictionnels du marché du travail sans politique budgétaire et monnaie, ou dans les Nouveaux cadres keynésien même avec un riche éventail de rigidités réelles et nominales et un minuscule degré de rigidité des prix, la stabilité des prix semble être l'objectif central de la politique monétaire optimale. En l'absence de politique budgétaire et la demande de monnaie, le taux d'inflation optimal tombe très proche de zéro, avec une volatilité environ 97 pour cent moins, compatible avec la littérature. Dans le deuxième article, je montre comment les résultats quantitatifs impliquent que le pouvoir de négociation des travailleurs et les coûts de l'aide sociale de règles monétaires sont liées négativement. Autrement dit, le plus faible est le pouvoir de négociation des travailleurs, le plus grand sont les coûts sociaux des règles de politique monétaire. Toutefois, dans un contraste saisissant par rapport à la littérature, les règles qui régissent à la production et à l'étroitesse du marché du travail entraînent des coûts de bien-être considérablement plus faible que la règle de ciblage de l'inflation. C'est en particulier le cas pour la règle qui répond à l'étroitesse du marché du travail. Les coûts de l'aide sociale aussi baisse remarquablement en augmentant la taille du coefficient de production dans les règles monétaires. Mes résultats indiquent qu'en augmentant le pouvoir de négociation du travailleur au niveau Hosios ou plus, les coûts de l'aide sociale des trois règles monétaires diminuent significativement et la réponse à la production ou à la étroitesse du marché du travail n'entraîne plus une baisse des coûts de bien-être moindre que la règle de ciblage de l'inflation, qui est en ligne avec la littérature existante. Dans le troisième article, je montre d'abord que la règle Friedman dans un modèle monétaire avec une contrainte de type cash-in-advance pour les entreprises n’est pas optimale lorsque le gouvernement pour financer ses dépenses a accès à des taxes à distorsion sur la consommation. Je soutiens donc que, la règle Friedman en présence de ces taxes à distorsion est optimale si nous supposons un modèle avec travaie raw-efficace où seule le travaie raw est soumis à la contrainte de type cash-in-advance et la fonction d'utilité est homothétique dans deux types de main-d'oeuvre et séparable dans la consommation. Lorsque la fonction de production présente des rendements constants à l'échelle, contrairement au modèle des produits de trésorerie de crédit que les prix de ces deux produits sont les mêmes, la règle Friedman est optimal même lorsque les taux de salaire sont différents. Si la fonction de production des rendements d'échelle croissant ou decroissant, pour avoir l'optimalité de la règle Friedman, les taux de salaire doivent être égales.

Derechos colectivos de las y los servidores públicos al amparo de las Enmiendas Constitucionales de 2015

La Constitución de la República del Ecuador vigente desde el año 2008, reconoce y garantiza derechos para los ciudadanos domiciliados en el país, entre ellos trabajadores/as y servidoras y servidores públicos. En diciembre de 2015, la Asamblea Nacional del Ecuador, mediante el procedimiento de Enmienda Constitucional unificó el régimen laboral de las personas que prestan sus servicios laborales en las instituciones y organismos estatales, debiendo adecuarse la normativa legal y secundaria a esta modificación de la Carta Magna hasta junio de 2016. En el presente trabajo abordaremos en su primer capítulo antecedentes históricos del derecho al trabajo en general y la legislación histórica que ha regido en nuestro país. En el segundo capítulo nos centraremos en distinguir cuales son las características del régimen laboral público y del privado en Ecuador y realizaremos recomendaciones en relación a derechos individuales de los servidores públicos. En el tercer capítulo haremos referencia a los Convenios Internacionales de la OIT ratificados y no ratificados por nuestro país. En el cuarto capítulo estableceremos similitudes y diferencias entre las legislaciones regionales en razón del reconocimiento de derechos colectivos para servidores públicos. En el capítulo cinco detallaremos criterios doctrinarios sobre los derechos de ejercicio colectivo, es decir: huelga, convenio colectivo y sindicalización en el sector público para finalmente en el sexto y último capítulo dar recomendaciones para la inminente reforma a la Ley Orgánica de Servicio Público, LOSEP.

Identifying the characteristics of child sexual abuse cases associated with the child or child's parents withdrawing the complaint

Most child sexual abuse cases do not result in a full trial or guilty plea; rather, case attrition occurs at earlier stages of the criminal justice system. One reason for the attrition of these cases is the withdrawal of complaints, by children or their caregivers. The aim of the current study was to determine the case characteristics associated with complaint withdrawal in child sexual abuse cases by the child or his or her parents once a report has been made to authorities. All child sexual abuse incidents reported to authorities in one jurisdiction of Australia in 2011 were analyzed (N=659). A multinomial logistic regression was used to predict the following case outcomes: (1) withdrawn by the child or his or her parents, (2) exited for other reasons (e.g., the alleged offender was not identified, the child refused to be interviewed), and (3) resulted in a charge. Five predictors significantly added to the prediction of case outcome: child age, suspect gender, suspect age, child-suspect relationship, and abuse frequency. These results should contribute to the design of interventions in order to reduce complaint withdrawals if these withdrawals are not in the child's best interests.

Output and labor productivity in organized manufacturing: a panel cointegration analysis for India

One of the policy puzzles faced in India during the last two and half decades has been the weak association between output and labor markets, particularly in the manufacturing sector. In this research, we investigate the long-run relationship between output, labor productivity and real wages in the case of organized manufacturing. We adjust the measure of labor productivity incorporating bottlenecks, such as lack of infrastructure, access to external finance, and labor regulations, which all may influence labor market outcomes. Using panel data from seventeen manufacturing industries, we establish long-run dynamics for the output-labor productivity-real wages series over a period of nearly three decades. We employ recently developed panel unit root and cointegration tests for cross-sectional dependence to incorporate heterogeneity across industries. Long-run elasticities are generally found to be low for labor productivity compared to real wages due to the changes in manufacturing output. There are variations across industries within the manufacturing sector for the effects of the labor market on manufacturing output. In some industries, lower wages are associated with higher output, and the reason for the positive relationship in other industries could be due to workers' bargaining power.

'A dark / Inscrutable workmanship:' Shining a ‘scientific’ light on emotion and poiesis

Max Nordau’s physiognomic study of criminality, Degeneration (1895), notably dedicated to the Italian pioneer of criminal anthropology Cesare Lombroso, labels poets and other artists—alongside criminals, prostitutes, anarchists, and lunatics—as ‘degenerates’. The Symbolist poets come under particular scrutiny in Nordau’s pseudo-scientific study. Paul Verlaine is described as ‘a repulsive degenerate subject with asymmetric skull and Mongolian face’ (1920 [1895]:128), while Stéphane Mallarmé is said to have ‘long, pointed, faun-like ears’ (131). The emotional and metaphorical intensity of their poetry, for Nordau, is another reflection of their alleged degeneracy. These poets write ‘twaddle’ (116), engaging in a ‘babbling and stammering’ (119) resonant of children and animals, which only ‘imbeciles and idiots’ profess to understand. While the Symbolists are viewed as avant-garde, Nordau is at pains to demonstrate that their irrational use of language actually exposes them as atavistic. Nordau proclaims: ‘clear speech serves the purpose of communication of the actual’ (118). By contrast, the Symbolists, ‘so far as they are honestly degenerate and imbecile, can think only in a mystical, that is, in a confused way… their emotions override their ideas.’

Identified by Nordau as one of the fin de siècle’s degenerates, Oscar Wilde evoked Nordau’s book in a petition for clemency when he was imprisoned in 1896, arguing that Nordau’s findings proved he required medical rather than punitive intervention. His plea was not successful, with Wilde later quipping: ‘I quite agree with Dr Nordau’s assertion that all men of genius are insane, but Dr Nordau forgets that all sane people are idiots’ (cited in Hitchens 2000: 18).

Le conflit de travail à l’usine d’Alma de Rio Tinto Alcan en 2012 : un déséquilibre du rapport de force entre un syndicat local et une entreprise multinationale?

Ce mémoire analyse la mobilisation multiniveaux de la section locale 9490 d'Alma du syndicat des Métallos lors de son conflit de travail avec Rio Tinto Alcan à l'hiver 2012. Lors de la négociation pour le renouvellement de la convention collective, le syndicat, affilié à la FTQ, est mis en lock-out par Rio Tinto Alcan, une entreprise multinationale anglo-australienne. Rio Tinto achète Alcan, une entreprise multinationale canadienne, au milieu des années 2000 et souhaite rentabiliser son investissement. Le Syndicat tient à maintenir ses acquis et les emplois de qualité dans la région et à ne pas céder devant ce nouvel employeur. Le syndicat des Métallos est affilié au syndicat international United SteelWorkers. Ensemble, ils mettront sur pied une campagne stratégique internationale afin de faire contrepoids aux énormes ressources de l'employeur. Cette étude analyse le déploiement d'un syndicat international lors d'un conflit de travail au niveau local avec une entreprise multinationale et identifie les impacts de la campagne sur les relations de travail.

Le conflit de travail à l’usine d’Alma de Rio Tinto Alcan en 2012 : un déséquilibre du rapport de force entre un syndicat local et une entreprise multinationale?

Ce mémoire analyse la mobilisation multiniveaux de la section locale 9490 d'Alma du syndicat des Métallos lors de son conflit de travail avec Rio Tinto Alcan à l'hiver 2012. Lors de la négociation pour le renouvellement de la convention collective, le syndicat, affilié à la FTQ, est mis en lock-out par Rio Tinto Alcan, une entreprise multinationale anglo-australienne. Rio Tinto achète Alcan, une entreprise multinationale canadienne, au milieu des années 2000 et souhaite rentabiliser son investissement. Le Syndicat tient à maintenir ses acquis et les emplois de qualité dans la région et à ne pas céder devant ce nouvel employeur. Le syndicat des Métallos est affilié au syndicat international United SteelWorkers. Ensemble, ils mettront sur pied une campagne stratégique internationale afin de faire contrepoids aux énormes ressources de l'employeur. Cette étude analyse le déploiement d'un syndicat international lors d'un conflit de travail au niveau local avec une entreprise multinationale et identifie les impacts de la campagne sur les relations de travail.

Understanding employment relations

The text addresses workplace governance under the Fair Work Act 2009, as well as the role oftrade unions, employer associations, collective bargaining processes, and various laws pertaining to contracts of employment, equal opportunity and ...

Interference-aware coordinated power allocation in autonomous Wi-Fi environment

Self-managed access points (APs) with growing intelligence can optimize their own performances but pose potential negative impacts on others without energy ef ciency. In this paper, we focus on modeling the coordinated interaction among interest-independent and self-con gured APs, and conduct the power allocation case study in the autonomous Wi-Fi scenario. Speci cally, we build a `coordination Wi-Fi platform (CWP), a public platform for APs interacting with each other. OpenWrt-based APs in the physical world are mapped to virtual agents (VAs) in CWP, which communicate with each other through a standard request-reply process de ned as AP talk protocol (ATP).With ATP, an active interference measurement methodology is proposed re ecting both in-range interference and hidden terminal interference, and the Nash bargaining-based power control is further formulated for interference reductions. CWP is deployed in a real of ce environment, where coordination interactions between VAs can bring a maximum 40-Mb/s throughput improvement with the Nash bargaining-based power control in the multi-AP experiments.

The impact of external forces on cartel network dynamics: direct research in the diamond industry

This paper describes the impact of external environmental forces on cartel networks. Using a case research approach, this report examines two leading business networks within one industry, over time. The results suggest that (a) bargaining power of intermediaries increases with the advent of new and powerful actors, (b) process activities that cartels previously controlled are being outsourced to new actors sometimes based in developing countries, (c) other actors are acquiring resources once dominated by a cartel, (d) external forces triggered by the illegal diamond trade, such as international regulatory constraints, no longer favour cartels like De Beers, and (e) over time, these and additional environment factors are forcing actors like De Beers who perform rigid process activities to become more flexible. For example, forces are moving cartels which relied previously on hand-picked intermediaries in highly controlled networks to market their products to adopt a flexible market-focused expansion of operations in retail contexts.

Music copyright in the digital age: creators, commerce and copyright - an empirical study of the UK music copyright industries

Copyright markets, it is said, are ‘winner takes all’ markets favouring the interests of corporate investors over the interests of primary creators. However, little is known about popular music creators’ ‘lived experience’ of copyright. This thesis interrogates key aspects of copyright transactions between creators and investors operating in the UK music industries using analysis of various copyright related documents and semi-structured interviews with creators and investors. The research found considerable variety in the types of ‘deal’ creators enter into and considerable divergence in the potential rewards. It was observed that new-entrant creators have little comprehension of the basic tenets of copyright, but with experience they become more ‘copyright aware’. Documentary and interview evidence reveals creators routinely assign copyright to third party investors for the full term of copyright in sound recordings: the justification for this is questionable. An almost inevitable consequence of this asymmetry of understanding of copyright and asymmetry of bargaining power is that creators become alienated from their copyright works. The empirical evidence presented here supports historic and contemporary calls for a statutory mechanism limiting the maximum copyright assignment period to ten-years.

Predicamento de seguridad yemení

Con el inicio del periodo Post-Guerra Fría el Sistema Internacional comienza a experimentar un incremento en el fortalecimiento de su componente social; la Sociedad de Estados alcanza un mayor nivel de homogenización, el estado, unidad predominante de esta, comienzan atravesar una serie de transformaciones que obedecerán a una serie de cambios y continuidades respecto al periodo anterior. Desde la perspectiva del Realismo Subalterno de las Relaciones Internacionales se destacan el proceso de construcción de estado e inserción al sistema como las variables que determinan el sentimiento de inseguridad experimentado por las elites estatales del Tercer Mundo; procesos que en el contexto de un nuevo y turbulento periodo en el sistema, tomara algunas características particulares que darán un sentido especifico al sentimiento de inseguridad y las acciones a través de las cuales las elites buscan disminuirlo. La dimensión externa del sentimiento de inseguridad, el nuevo papel que toma la resistencia popular como factor determinante del sentimiento de inseguridad y de la cooperación, así como del conflicto, entre los miembros de la Sociedad Internacional, la inserción como promotor de estrategias de construcción de Estado, son alguno de los temas puntuales, que desde la perspectiva subalterna, parecen salir a flote tras el análisis del sistema en lo que se ha considerado como el periodo Post-Guerra Fría. En este sentido Yemen, se muestra como un caso adecuado no solo para poner a prueba las postulados de la teoría subalterna, veinte años después de su obra más prominente (The third world security Predicament), escrita por M. Ayoob, sino como un caso pertinente que permite acercarse más a la comprensión del papel del Tercer Mundo al interior de la Sociedad Internacional de Estados.