Exploring the Potential Impacts of Climate Variability on Spring Wheat Yield with the APSIM Decision Support Tool

Assessing the impacts of climate variability on agricultural productivity at regional, national or global scale is essential for defining adaptation and mitigation strategies. We explore in this study the potential changes in spring wheat yields at Swift Current and Melfort, Canada, for different sowing windows under projected climate scenarios (i.e., the representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). First, the APSIM model was calibrated and evaluated at the study sites using data from long term experimental field plots. Then, the impacts of change in sowing dates on final yield were assessed over the 2030-2099 period with a 1990-2009 baseline period of observed yield data, assuming that other crop management practices remained unchanged. Results showed that the performance of APSIM was quite satisfactory with an index of agreement of 0.80, R2 of 0.54, and mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of 529 kg/ha and 1023 kg/ha, respectively (MAE = 476 kg/ha and RMSE = 684 kg/ha in calibration phase). Under the projected climate conditions, a general trend in yield loss was observed regardless of the sowing window, with a range from -24 to -94 depending on the site and the RCP, and noticeable losses during the 2060s and beyond (increasing CO2 effects being excluded). Smallest yield losses obtained through earlier possible sowing date (i.e., mid-April) under the projected future climate suggested that this option might be explored for mitigating possible adverse impacts of climate variability. Our findings could therefore serve as a basis for using APSIM as a decision support tool for adaptation/mitigation options under potential climate variability within Western Canada.

Risk assessment for Puccinia psidii becoming established in South Africa

Puccinia psidii, the causal agent of myrtle rust, was first recorded from Latin America more than 100 years ago. It occurs on many native species of Myrtaceae in Latin America and also infects non-native plantation-grown Eucalyptus species in the region. The pathogen has gradually spread to new areas including Australia and most recently South Africa. The aim of this study was to consider the susceptibility of selected Eucalyptus genotypes, particularly those of interest to South African forestry, to infection by P. psidii. In addition, risk maps were compiled based on suitable climatic conditions and the occurrence of potential susceptible tree species. This made it possible to identify the season when P. psidii would be most likely to infect and to define the geographic areas where the rust disease would be most likely to establish in South Africa. As expected, variation in susceptibility was observed between eucalypt genotypes tested. Importantly, species commonly planted in South Africa show good potential for yielding disease-tolerant material for future planting. Myrtle rust is predicted to be more common in spring and summer. Coastal areas, as well as areas in South Africa with subtropical climates, are more conducive to outbreaks of the pathogen.

Frost trends and their estimated impact on yield in the Australian wheatbelt

Radiant spring frosts occurring during reproductive developmental stages can result in catastrophic yield loss for wheat producers. To better understand the spatial and temporal variability of frost, the occurrence and impact of frost events on rain-fed wheat production was estimated across the Australian wheatbelt for 1957–2013 using a 0.05 ° gridded weather data set. Simulated yield outcomes at 60 key locations were compared with those for virtual genotypes with different levels of frost tolerance. Over the last six decades, more frost events, later last frost day, and a significant increase in frost impact on yield were found in certain regions of the Australian wheatbelt, in particular in the South-East and West. Increasing trends in frost-related yield losses were simulated in regions where no significant trend of frost occurrence was observed, due to higher mean temperatures accelerating crop development and causing sensitive post-heading stages to occur earlier, during the frost risk period. Simulations indicated that with frost-tolerant lines the mean national yield could be improved by up to 20 through (i) reduced frost damage (~10 improvement) and (ii) the ability to use earlier sowing dates (adding a further 10 improvement). In the simulations, genotypes with an improved frost tolerance to temperatures 1 °C lower than the current 0 °C reference provided substantial benefit in most cropping regions, while greater tolerance (to 3 °C lower temperatures) brought further benefits in the East. The results indicate that breeding for improved reproductive frost tolerance should remain a priority for the Australian wheat industry, despite warming climates.

Sugarcane productivity response to different fallow and soybean residue management practices in the Bundaberg district

GRAIN LEGUME ROTATIONS underpin the sustainability of the Australian sugarcane farming system, offering a number of soil health and environmental benefits. Recent studies have highlighted the potential for these breaks to exacerbate nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. An experiment was implemented in 2012 to evaluate the impact of two fallow management options (bare fallow and soybean break crop) and different soybean residue management practices on N2O emissions and sugarcane productivity. The bare fallow plots were conventionally tilled, whereas the soybean treatments were either tilled, not tilled, residue sprayed with nitrification inhibitor (DMPP) prior to tillage or had a triticale ‘catch crop’ sown between the soybean and sugarcane crops. The fallow plots received either no nitrogen (N0) or fully fertilised (N145) whereas the soybean treatments received 25 kg N/ha at planting only. The Fallow N145 treatment yielded 8% more cane than the soybean tilled treatment. However there was no statistical difference in sugar productivity. Cane yield was correlated with stalk number that was correlated to soil mineral nitrogen status in January. There was only 30% more N/ha in the above-ground biomass between the Fallow N145 and the Fallow N0 treatment; highlighting poor fertiliser nitrogen use efficiency. Supplying adequate nitrogen to meet productivity requirements without causing environmental harm remains a challenge for the Australian sugar industry. The soybean direct drill treatment significantly reduced N2O emissions and produced similar yields and profitability to the soybean tilled treatment (outlined in a companion paper by Wang et.al. in these proceedings). Furthermore, this study has highlighted that the soybean direct drill technique provides an opportunity to enable grain legume cropping in the sugarcane farming system to capture all of the soil health/environmental benefits without exacerbating N2O emissions from Australian sugarcane soils.

Soybean rotation and crop residue management to reduce nitrous oxide emissions from sugarcane soils

NITROUS OXIDE (N2O) IS a potent greenhouse gas and the predominant ozone-depleting substance in the atmosphere. Agricultural nitrogenous fertiliser use is the major source of human-induced N2O emissions. A field experiment was conducted at Bundaberg from October 2012 to September 2014 to examine the impacts of legume crop (soybean) rotation as an alternative nitrogen (N) source on N2O emissions during the fallow period and to investigate low-emission soybean residue management practices. An automatic monitoring system and manual gas sampling chambers were used to measure greenhouse gas emissions from soil. Soybean cropping during the fallow period reduced N2O emissions compared to the bare fallow. Based on the N content in the soybean crop residues, the fertiliser N application rate was reduced by about 120 kg N/ha for the subsequent sugarcane crop. Consequently, emissions of N2O during the sugarcane cropping season were significantly lower from the soybean cropped soil than those from the conventionally fertilised (145 kg N/ha) soil following bare fallow. However, tillage that incorporated the soybean crop residues into soil promoted N2O emissions in the first two months. Spraying a nitrification inhibitor (DMPP) onto the soybean crop residues before tillage effectively prevented the N2O emission spikes. Compared to conventional tillage, practising no-till with or without growing a nitrogen catch crop during the time after soybean harvest and before cane planting also reduced N2O emissions substantially. These results demonstrated that soybean rotation during the fallow period followed with N conservation management practices could offer a promising N2O mitigation strategy in sugarcane farming. Further investigation is required to provide guidance on N and water management following soybean fallow to maintain sugar productivity.

Characterization of maize growing environments in eastern and southern Africa using the APSIM model

Maize grown in eastern and southern Africa experiences random occurrences of drought. This uncertainty creates difficulty in developing superior varieties and their agronomy. Characterisation of drought types and their frequencies could help in better defining selection environments for improving resistance to drought. We used the well tested APSIM maize model to characterise major drought stress patterns and their frequencies across six countries of the region including Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe. The database thus generated covered 35 sites, 17 to 86 years of daily climate records, 3 varieties and 3 planting densities from a total of 11,174 simulations. The analysis identified four major drought environment types including those characterised by low-stress which occurred in 42% of the years, mid-season drought occurring in 15% of the years, late-terminal stress which occurred in 22% of the years and early-terminal drought occurring in 21% of the years. These frequencies varied in relation to sites, genotypes and management. The simulations showed that early terminal stress could result in a yield reduction of 70% compared with low-stress environmental types. The study presents the importance of environmental characterization in contributing to maize improvement in eastern and southern Africa.

Evidence from molecules and morphology expands Podonomopsis Brundin (Diptera: Chironomidae: Podonominae) to include ‘genus Chile'

The informal taxon ‘genus Chile’ of Brundin, based solely on pupal exuviae of a podonomine Chironomidae, has remained inadequately known for half a century. New collections reveal life associations, and provide molecular data to hypothesise a precise phylogenetic placement in the austral Podonominae. A densely sampled molecular phylogeny based on two nuclear and one mitochondrial DNA markers shows ‘genus Chile’ to be the sister group to Podonomopsis Brundin, 1966. Within Podonomopsis a clade of South American species is sister to all Australian species. We discuss how to rank such a sister group taxon and treat ‘genus Chile’ as a new subgenus Araucanopsis, subg. nov. with the new species, Podonomopsis (Araucanopsis) avelasse, sp. nov. from Chile and Argentina as genotype of the monotypic subgenus. We describe P. (A.) avelasse in all stages and provide an expanded diagnosis and description of Podonomopsis to include Araucanopsis. A dated biogeographic hypothesis (chronogram) infers the most recent common ancestor (tmcra) of expanded Podonomopsis at 95 million years ago (Mya) (68–122 Mya 95% highest posterior density), ‘core’ Podonomopsis at 83 Mya (58–108) and Australian Podonomopsis at 65 Mya (44–87). All dates are before the South America–Australia geological separation through Antarctica, supporting previous conclusions that the taxon distribution is ‘Gondwanan’ in origin. Podonomopsis, even as expanded here, remains unknown from New Zealand or elsewhere on extant Zealandia.

Managing reforestation to sequester carbon, increase biodiversity potential and minimize loss of agricultural land

Reforestation will have important consequences for the global challenges of mitigating climate change, arresting habitat decline and ensuring food security. We examined field-scale trade-offs between carbon sequestration of tree plantings and biodiversity potential and loss of agricultural land. Extensive surveys of reforestation across temperate and tropical Australia (N = 1491 plantings) were used to determine how planting width and species mix affect carbon sequestration during early development (< 15 year). Carbon accumulation per area increased significantly with decreasing planting width and with increasing proportion of eucalypts (the predominant over-storey genus). Highest biodiversity potential was achieved through block plantings (width > 40 m) with about 25% of planted individuals being eucalypts. Carbon and biodiversity goals were balanced in mixed-species plantings by establishing narrow belts (width < 20 m) with a high proportion (>75%) of eucalypts, and in monocultures of mallee eucalypt plantings by using the widest belts (ca. 6–20 m). Impacts on agriculture were minimized by planting narrow belts (ca. 4 m) of mallee eucalypt monocultures, which had the highest carbon sequestering efficiency. A plausible scenario where only 5% of highly-cleared areas (<30% native vegetation cover remaining) of temperate Australia are reforested showed substantial mitigation potential. Total carbon sequestration after 15 years was up to 25 Mt CO2-e year−1 when carbon and biodiversity goals were balanced and 13 Mt CO2-e year−1 if block plantings of highest biodiversity potential were established. Even when reforestation was restricted to marginal agricultural land (<$2000 ha−1 land value, 28% of the land under agriculture in Australia), total mitigation potential after 15 years was 17–26 Mt CO2-e year−1 using narrow belts of mallee plantings. This work provides guidance on land use to governments and planners. We show that the multiple benefits of young tree plantings can be balanced by manipulating planting width and species choice at establishment. In highly-cleared areas, such plantings can sequester substantial biomass carbon while improving biodiversity and causing negligible loss of agricultural land.

Impact of 1-methylcyclopropene treatment on the sensory quality of 'Bartlett' pear fruit

The ethylene biosynthesis inhibitor, 1-methylcyclopropene (1-MCP), has been commercially used to extend the storage life of European pear fruit and to allow shipment to distant markets. However, the influence of 1-MCP on the ability of fruit to ripen to an acceptable sensory quality has not been investigated in 'Bartlett' pear, one of the most aromatic of pear fruit. In the current study, early-, mid- and late-season 'Bartlett' pear fruit were treated with 0.6μLL-1 1-MCP at 0°C for 24h, 100μLL-1 ethylene at 20°C for 24h, or untreated before immediate transfer to 20°C for ripening until eating soft (13N firmness). Fruit from each treatment were subjected to objective and sensory quality evaluation once ripe. Sensory quality showed differences related to harvest maturity; the importance of harvest maturity depended on the treatment. Treatment with 1-MCP effectively slowed fruit ripening and therefore extended postharvest life, but also resulted in fully ripened pears with more desirable sensory traits, as compared with ethylene-treated and untreated pears. The enhanced sensory quality was related to higher sweetness, juiciness and pear aroma and reduced fermented aroma, gritty texture and tart taste. In addition, the sensory profiles of 1-MCP-treated pears were more stable among fruit from the three harvest dates than the ethylene-treated pears, which exhibited very different sensory profiles between early- and late-season fruits. © 2015 Elsevier B.V.

Inventories and significance of the genetic resources of an African mahogany species (Khaya senegalensis (Desr.) A. Juss.) assembled and further developed in Australia.

The forest tree species Khaya senegalensis (Desr.) A. Juss. occurs in a belt across 20 African countries from Senegal-Guinea to Sudan-Uganda where it is a highly important resource. However, it is listed as Vulnerable (IUCN 2015-3). Since introduction in northern Australia around 1959, the species has been planted widely, yielding high-value products. The total area of plantations of the species in Australia exceeds 15,000 ha, mostly planted in the Northern Territory since 2006, and includes substantial areas across 60-70 woodlots and industrial plantations established in north-eastern Queensland since the early-1990s and during 2005-2007 respectively. Collaborative conservation and tree improvement by governments began in the Northern Territory and Queensland in 2001 based on provenance and other trials of the 1960s-1970s. This work has developed a broad base of germplasm in clonal seed orchards, hedge gardens and trials (clone and progeny). Several of the trials were established collaboratively on private land. Since the mid-2000s, commercial growers have introduced large numbers of provenance-bulk and individual-tree seedlots to establish industrial plantations and trials, several of the latter in collaboration with the Queensland Government. Provenance bulks (>140) and families (>400) from 17 African countries are established in Australia, considered the largest genetic base of the species in a single country outside Africa. Recently the annual rate of industrial planting of the species in Australia has declined, and R&D has been suspended by governments and reduced by the private sector. However, new commercial plantings in the Northern Territory and Queensland are proposed. In domesticating a species, the strategic importance of a broad genetic base is well known. The wide range of first- and advanced-generation germplasm of the species established in northern Australia and documented in this paper provides a sound basis for further domestication and industrial plantation and woodlot expansion, when investment conditions are favourable

Mendelsohn Family Collection, Zeitz, Saxony 1870-1945

Names and dates of 5 members of the Mendelsohn family from Zeitz, Saxony, who were killed during World War I and during the Holocaust

Dressing up Tinderella: Interrogating authenticity claims on the mobile dating app Tinder

Mobile dating applications (‘apps’) have increased in popularity over recent years, with Tinder among the first to break into the mainstream heterosexual market. Since mobile dating intensifies the need to confirm that potential dates are not misrepresenting themselves and are safe to meet in person, Tinder’s success indicates that it has allayed these concerns regarding the authenticity of its users. This article combines Giddens’ conceptualization of authenticity, as the ability to reference a coherent biographical narrative, with Callon’s sociology of translation to investigate Tinder’s framing of authenticity within mobile dating. Applying a walkthrough method that interrogates Tinder’s technological architecture, promotional materials, and related media, this hybrid theoretical framework is used to identify how Tinder configures an actor-network that establishes its app as the solution to users’ concerns, enrols individuals in using its features in authenticity claims, and popularizes Tinder’s framing across public discourse. This network of human and non-human actors frames authenticity as being established through one’s Facebook profile and adherence to normative standards relating to age, gender, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. However, user discourses on other social media identify and challenge negative outcomes of this framing, with normativity fostering discrimination and Facebook verification failing to prevent abusive behavior. This case study of Tinder paves the way for future investigation into user responses to its framing. Further, it demonstrates the efficacy and broader applicability of this theoretical approach for identifying both human and technological influences on the construction of authenticity with digital media.

Tied aid, unemployment and welfare

The effect of foreign aid on the welfare levels of both the recipient and the donor country has been a much analysed topic for research in both the theory of international trade and development economics. In the development economics literature, concerns have been raised since the 1960s on the possible adverse effect of foreign aid on domestic savings and growth.1 The trade theory literature in this respect is much older and dates back to the 1920s when Professors Keynes and Ohlin debated on the effect of foreign aid on international terms of trade.2 Ever since, the terms of trade effect has been the cornerstone in the analysis of the welfare effect of foreign aid in the trade theory literature.3 After some early confusion, it is now well established that in a Walrasian stable world economy with two countries, a necessary condition for foreign aid to have perverse effects is that there is some distortion in either of the two countries.4 It is also known that, under normality and substitutability of goods, untied aid cannot be strictly Pareto-improving in a tariff distorted world.5

Mutations as molecular tools : The metabolic-rate dependent molecular clock and DNA barcoding of allied species

Mutation and recombination are the fundamental processes leading to genetic variation in natural populations. This variation forms the raw material for evolution through natural selection and drift. Therefore, studying mutation rates may reveal information about evolutionary histories as well as phylogenetic interrelationships of organisms. In this thesis two molecular tools, DNA barcoding and the molecular clock were examined. In the first part, the efficiency of mutations to delineate closely related species was tested and the implications for conservation practices were assessed. The second part investigated the proposition that a constant mutation rate exists within invertebrates, in form of a metabolic-rate dependent molecular clock, which can be applied to accurately date speciation events. DNA barcoding aspires to be an efficient technique to not only distinguish between species but also reveal population-level variation solely relying on mutations found on a short stretch of a single gene. In this thesis barcoding was applied to discriminate between Hylochares populations from Russian Karelia and new Hylochares findings from the greater Helsinki region in Finland. Although barcoding failed to delineate the two reproductively isolated groups, their distinct morphological features and differing life-history traits led to their classification as two closely related, although separate species. The lack of genetic differentiation appears to be due to a recent divergence event not yet reflected in the beetles molecular make-up. Thus, the Russian Hylochares was described as a new species. The Finnish species, previously considered as locally extinct, was recognized as endangered. Even if, due to their identical genetic make-up, the populations had been regarded as conspecific, conservation strategies based on prior knowledge from Russia would not have guaranteed the survival of the Finnish beetle. Therefore, new conservation actions based on detailed studies of the biology and life-history of the Finnish Hylochares were conducted to protect this endemic rarity in Finland. The idea behind the strict molecular clock is that mutation rates are constant over evolutionary time and may thus be used to infer species divergence dates. However, one of the most recent theories argues that a strict clock does not tick per unit of time but that it has a constant substitution rate per unit of mass-specific metabolic energy. Therefore, according to this hypothesis, molecular clocks have to be recalibrated taking body size and temperature into account. This thesis tested the temperature effect on mutation rates in equally sized invertebrates. For the first dataset (family Eucnemidae, Coleoptera) the phylogenetic interrelationships and evolutionary history of the genus Arrhipis had to be inferred before the influence of temperature on substitution rates could be studied. Further, a second, larger invertebrate dataset (family Syrphidae, Diptera) was employed. Several methodological approaches, a number of genes and multiple molecular clock models revealed that there was no consistent relationship between temperature and mutation rate for the taxa under study. Thus, the body size effect, observed in vertebrates but controversial for invertebrates, rather than temperature may be the underlying driving force behind the metabolic-rate dependent molecular clock. Therefore, the metabolic-rate dependent molecular clock does not hold for the here studied invertebrate groups. This thesis emphasizes that molecular techniques relying on mutation rates have to be applied with caution. Whereas they may work satisfactorily under certain conditions for specific taxa, they may fail for others. The molecular clock as well as DNA barcoding should incorporate all the information and data available to obtain comprehensive estimations of the existing biodiversity and its evolutionary history.

Researching effective approaches to cleaning in hospitals: Protocol of the REACH study, a multi-site stepped-wedge randomised trial

Background The Researching Effective Approaches to Cleaning in Hospitals (REACH) study will generate evidence about the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a novel cleaning initiative that aims to improve the environmental cleanliness of hospitals. The initiative is an environmental cleaning bundle, with five interdependent, evidence-based components (training, technique, product, audit and communication) implemented with environmental services staff to enhance hospital cleaning practices. Methods/design The REACH study will use a stepped-wedge randomised controlled design to test the study intervention, an environmental cleaning bundle, in 11 Australian hospitals. All trial hospitals will receive the intervention and act as their own control, with analysis undertaken of the change within each hospital based on data collected in the control and intervention periods. Each site will be randomised to one of the 11 intervention timings with staggered commencement dates in 2016 and an intervention period between 20 and 50 weeks. All sites complete the trial at the same time in 2017. The inclusion criteria allow for a purposive sample of both public and private hospitals that have higher-risk patient populations for healthcare-associated infections (HAIs). The primary outcome (objective one) is the monthly number of Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemias (SABs), Clostridium difficile infections (CDIs) and vancomycin resistant enterococci (VRE) infections, per 10,000 bed days. Secondary outcomes for objective one include the thoroughness of hospital cleaning assessed using fluorescent marker technology, the bio-burden of frequent touch surfaces post cleaning and changes in staff knowledge and attitudes about environmental cleaning. A cost-effectiveness analysis will determine the second key outcome (objective two): the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio from implementation of the cleaning bundle. The study uses the integrated Promoting Action on Research Implementation in Health Services (iPARIHS) framework to support the tailored implementation of the environmental cleaning bundle in each hospital. Discussion Evidence from the REACH trial will contribute to future policy and practice guidelines about hospital environmental cleaning. It will be used by healthcare leaders and clinicians to inform decision-making and implementation of best-practice infection prevention strategies to reduce HAIs in hospitals. Trial registration Australia New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry ACTRN12615000325​505