995 resultados para phase uncertainty


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Front crawl is an alternating swimming stroke technique in which different phases of arm movement induce changes in acceleration of limbs and body. This study proposes a new approach to use inertial body worn sensors to estimate main temporal phases of front crawl. Distinctive features in kinematic signals are used to detect the temporal phases. These temporal phases are key information sources of qualitative and quantitative evaluation of swimming coordination, which have been assessed previously by video analysis. The present method has been evaluated upon a wide range of coordination and showed a difference of 4.9% with video based system. The results are in line with video analysis inter-operator variability yet offering an easy-to-use system for trainers.

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We perform an experiment on a pure coordination game with uncertaintyabout the payoffs. Our game is closely related to models that have beenused in many macroeconomic and financial applications to solve problemsof equilibrium indeterminacy. In our experiment each subject receives anoisy signal about the true payoffs. This game has a unique strategyprofile that survives the iterative deletion of strictly dominatedstrategies (thus a unique Nash equilibrium). The equilibrium outcomecoincides, on average, with the risk-dominant equilibrium outcome ofthe underlying coordination game. The behavior of the subjects convergesto the theoretical prediction after enough experience has been gained. The data (and the comments) suggest that subjects do not apply through"a priori" reasoning the iterated deletion of dominated strategies.Instead, they adapt to the responses of other players. Thus, the lengthof the learning phase clearly varies for the different signals. We alsotest behavior in a game without uncertainty as a benchmark case. The gamewith uncertainty is inspired by the "global" games of Carlsson and VanDamme (1993).

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Background: Alcohol is a major risk factor for burden of disease and injuries globally. This paper presents a systematic method to compute the 95% confidence intervals of alcohol-attributable fractions (AAFs) with exposure and risk relations stemming from different sources.Methods: The computation was based on previous work done on modelling drinking prevalence using the gamma distribution and the inherent properties of this distribution. The Monte Carlo approach was applied to derive the variance for each AAF by generating random sets of all the parameters. A large number of random samples were thus created for each AAF to estimate variances. The derivation of the distributions of the different parameters is presented as well as sensitivity analyses which give an estimation of the number of samples required to determine the variance with predetermined precision, and to determine which parameter had the most impact on the variance of the AAFs.Results: The analysis of the five Asian regions showed that 150 000 samples gave a sufficiently accurate estimation of the 95% confidence intervals for each disease. The relative risk functions accounted for most of the variance in the majority of cases.Conclusions: Within reasonable computation time, the method yielded very accurate values for variances of AAFs.

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Purpose/Objective(s): To analyze the long-term outcome of treatment with concomitant cisplatin and hyperfractionated radiotherapy in locally advanced head and neck cancer compared with hyperfractionated radiotherapy alone.Materials/Methods: From July 1994 to July 2000 a total of 224 patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck were randomized to either hyperfractionated radiotherapy (median dose 74.4 Gy; 1.2 Gy twice daily) or the same radiotherapy combined with two cycles of concomitant cisplatin (20mg/m2 for 5 consecutive days of weeks 1 and 5). The primary endpoint was time to any treatment failure; secondary endpoints were locoregional failure, metastatic failure, overall survival, and late toxicity assessed according to RTOG criteria. The trial was registered at the National Institutes of Health (www.clinicaltrials.gov; identifier number: NCT00002654).Results: Median follow-up was 9.5 years (range, 0.1 - 15.4 years). Median time to any treatment failure was not significantly different between treatment arms (p = 0.19). Locoregional control (p\0.05), distant metastasis-free survival (p = 0.02) and cancer specific survival (p = 0.03) were significantly improved in the combined treatment arm, with no difference in late toxicity between treatment arms. However, overall survival was not significantly different (p = 0.19). Conclusions: After long-term follow-up combined treatment with cisplatin and hyperfractionated, radiotherapy maintained an improved locoregional control, distant metastasis-free survival, and cancer specific survival as compared to hyperfractionated radiotherapy alone with no difference in late toxicity.Author Disclosure: P. Ghadjar, None; M. Simcock, None; G. Studer, None; A.S. Allal, None; M. Ozsahin, None; J. Bernier, None; M. To¨ pfer, None; F. Zimmermann, None; C. Glanzmann, None; D.M. Aebersold, None.

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BACKGROUND: Since the advent of combined antiretroviral therapy (ART), the incidence of non-AIDS-defining cancers (non-ADCs) among HIV-positive patients is rising. We previously described HIV testing rates of <5% in our oncology centre, against a local HIV prevalence of 0.4% (1). We have since worked with the Service of Oncology to identify, how HIV testing can be optimized, we have conducted a study on investigating barriers in HIV-testing oncology patients (IBITOP) among treating oncologists and their patients. METHODS: After an initial two-month pilot study to examine feasibility (2), we conducted the first phase of the IBITOP study between 1st July and 31st October 2013. Patients of unknown HIV status, newly diagnosed with solid-organ non-AIDS-defining cancer, and treated at Lausanne University Hospital were invited to participate. Patients were offered HIV testing as a part of their initial oncology work-up. Oncologist testing proposals and patient acceptance were the primary endpoints. RESULTS: Of 235 patients with a new oncology diagnosis, 10 were excluded (7 with ADCs and 3 of known HIV-positive status). Mean age was 62 years; 48% were men and 71% were Swiss. Of 225 patients, 75 (33%) were offered HIV testing. Of these, 56 (75%) accepted, of whom 52 (93%) were tested. A further ten patients were tested (without documentation of being offered a test), which gave a total testing rate of 28% (62/225). Among the 19 patients who declined testing, reasons cited included self-perceived absence of HIV risk, previous testing and palliative care. Of the 140 patients not offered HIV testing and not tested, reasons were documented for 35 (25%), the most common being previous testing and follow-up elsewhere. None of the 62 patients HIV tested had a reactive test. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, one third of patients seen were offered testing and the HIV testing rate was fivefold higher than that of previously observed in this service. Most patients accepted testing when offered. As HIV-positive status impacts on the medical management of cancer patients, we recommend that HIV screening should be performed in settings, where HIV prevalence is >0.1%. Phase II of the IBITOP study is now underway to explore barriers to HIV screening among oncologists and patients following the updated national HIV testing guidelines which recommend testing in non-ADC patients undergoing chemotherapy.

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Species' geographic ranges are usually considered as basic units in macroecology and biogeography, yet it is still difficult to measure them accurately for many reasons. About 20 years ago, researchers started using local data on species' occurrences to estimate broad scale ranges, thereby establishing the niche modeling approach. However, there are still many problems in model evaluation and application, and one of the solutions is to find a consensus solution among models derived from different mathematical and statistical models for niche modeling, climatic projections and variable combination, all of which are sources of uncertainty during niche modeling. In this paper, we discuss this approach of ensemble forecasting and propose that it can be divided into three phases with increasing levels of complexity. Phase I is the simple combination of maps to achieve a consensual and hopefully conservative solution. In Phase II, differences among the maps used are described by multivariate analyses, and Phase III consists of the quantitative evaluation of the relative magnitude of uncertainties from different sources and their mapping. To illustrate these developments, we analyzed the occurrence data of the tiger moth, Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae), a Neotropical moth species, and modeled its geographic range in current and future climates.

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Individual-specific uncertainty may increase the chances of reform beingenacted and sustained. Reform may be more likely to be enacted because amajority of agents might end up losing little from reform and a minoritygaining a lot. Under certainty, reform would therefore be rejected, butit may be enacted with uncertainty because those who end up losing believethat they might be among the winners. Reform may be more likely to besustained because, in a realistic setting, reform will increase theincentives of agents to move into those economic activities that benefit.Agents who respond to these incentives will vote to sustain reform infuture elections, even if they would have rejected reform under certainty.These points are made using the trade-model of Fernandez and Rodrik (AER,1991).

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We introduce a microscopic method that determines quantitative optical properties beyond the optical diffraction limit and allows direct imaging of unstained living biological specimens. In established holographic microscopy, complex fields are measured using interferometric detection, allowing diffraction-limited phase measurements. Here, we show that non-invasive optical nanoscopy can achieve a lateral resolution of 90 nm by using a quasi-2 pi-holographic detection scheme and complex deconvolution. We record holograms from different illumination directions on the sample plane and observe subwavelength tomographic variations of the specimen. Nanoscale apertures serve to calibrate the tomographic reconstruction and to characterize the imaging system by means of the coherent transfer function. This gives rise to realistic inverse filtering and guarantees true complex field reconstruction. The observations are shown for nanoscopic porous cell frustule (diatoms), for the direct study of bacteria (Escherichia coil), and for a time-lapse approach to explore the dynamics of living dendritic spines (neurones).

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Introduction: Mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) accounts for 6% of all B-cell lymphomas and is in most cases an incurable disease. It is characterized by the translocation t(11;14) leading to Cyclin D1 over-expression. Cyclin D1 is downstream of the mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) threonine kinase and can be effectively blocked by mTOR inhibitors. We set out to define the single agent activity of the orally available mTOR inhibitor everolimus in a prospective, multicentre trial in patients with relapsed or refractory MCL (NCT00516412).Methods: Eligible patients with confirmed relapsed or refractory MCL received everolimus 10 mg for 28 days (one cycle) for a total of 6 cycles or until disease progression. The primary endpoint was the best objective response (OR) with adverse reactions, time to progression (TTP), time to treatment failure, response duration and molecular response as secondary endpoints.Results: A total of 36 patients with 35 evaluable patients at a median age of 69 years (range 40 to 85 years) from 19 centers were enrolled between August 2007 and January 2010. Treatment was generally well tolerated with anemia (11%), thrombocytopenia (11%), neutropenia (8%), diarrhea (3%) and fatigue (3%) being the most frequent complications of CTC grade 3 or higher. The OR rate was 20% (95% CI: 8-37%) with 2 complete remissions (CR) and 5 partial response (PR), stable disease (SD) 48% and progression disease (PD) 28%. At a median follow-up of 6 months, TTP was 5.45 months (95% CI: 2.8-8.2 months) for the entire population and 10.6 months for the 18 patients receiving 6 or more cycles of treatment. Three patients achieved a lasting complete molecular response when assessed in the peripheral blood.Conclusion: This study demonstrates that single agent everolimus is well tolerated and has anti-lymphoma activity including lasting molecular responses. Further studies of everolimus either in combination with chemotherapy or as single agent for maintenance treatment are warranted in MCL.

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Time periods composing stance phase of gait can be clinically meaningful parameters to reveal differences between normal and pathological gait. This study aimed, first, to describe a novel method for detecting stance and inner-stance temporal events based on foot-worn inertial sensors; second, to extract and validate relevant metrics from those events; and third, to investigate their suitability as clinical outcome for gait evaluations. 42 subjects including healthy subjects and patients before and after surgical treatments for ankle osteoarthritis performed 50-m walking trials while wearing foot-worn inertial sensors and pressure insoles as a reference system. Several hypotheses were evaluated to detect heel-strike, toe-strike, heel-off, and toe-off based on kinematic features. Detected events were compared with the reference system on 3193 gait cycles and showed good accuracy and precision. Absolute and relative stance periods, namely loading response, foot-flat, and push-off were then estimated, validated, and compared statistically between populations. Besides significant differences observed in stance duration, the analysis revealed differing tendencies with notably a shorter foot-flat in healthy subjects. The result indicated which features in inertial sensors' signals should be preferred for detecting precisely and accurately temporal events against a reference standard. The system is suitable for clinical evaluations and provides temporal analysis of gait beyond the common swing/stance decomposition, through a quantitative estimation of inner-stance phases such as foot-flat.

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This paper investigates the timing of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the banking sector. The importance of this issue would arise from the existence of differential benefits associated to be the first entrant in a foreign location. Nevertheless, when uncertainty is considered, the existence of some Ownership-Location-Internalization (OLI) advantages can make FDI less reversible and/or more delayable and therefore it may be optimal for the firm to delay the investment until the uncertainty is resolved. In this paper, the nature of OLI advantages in the banking sector has been examined in order to propose a prognostic model of the timing of foreign direct investment. The model is then tested for the Spanish case using duration analysis.