Flow and wakes in large wind farms in complex terrain and offshore

Power losses due to wind turbine wakes are of the order of 10 and 20% of total power output in large wind farms. The focus of this research carried out within the EC funded UPWIND project is wind speed and turbulence modelling for large wind farms/wind turbines in complex terrain and offshore in order to optimise wind farm layouts to reduce wake losses and loads.

Flow and wakes in complex terrain and offshore. Model development and verification in UPWIND

The paper presents research conducted in the Flow workpackage of the EU funded UPWIND project which focuses on improving models for flow within and downwind of large wind farms in complex terrain and offshore. The main activity is modelling the behaviour of wind turbine wakes in order to improve power output predictions.

Prediction of wake effects on wind farm power production using a RANS approach. Part II. Offshore: Case studies from the UPWIND project

The estimation of power losses due to wind turbine wakes is crucial to understanding overall wind farm economics. This is especially true for large offshore wind farms, as it represents the primary source of losses in available power, given the regular arrangement of rotors, their generally largerdiameter and the lower ambient turbulence level, all of which conspire to dramatically affect wake expansion and, consequently, the power deficit. Simulation of wake effects in offshore wind farms (in reasonable computational time) is currently feasible using CFD tools. An elliptic CFD model basedon the actuator disk method and various RANS turbulence closure schemes is tested and validated using power ratios extracted from Horns Rev and Nysted wind farms, collected as part of the EU-funded UPWIND project. The primary focus of the present work is on turbulence modeling, as turbulent mixing is the main mechanism for flow recovery inside wind farms. A higher-order approach, based on the anisotropic RSM model, is tested to better take into account the imbalance in the length scales inside and outside of the wake, not well reproduced by current two-equation closure schemes.

Statistical models for short-term wind power ramp forecasting

La predicción de energía eólica ha desempeñado en la última década un papel fundamental en el aprovechamiento de este recurso renovable, ya que permite reducir el impacto que tiene la naturaleza fluctuante del viento en la actividad de diversos agentes implicados en su integración, tales como el operador del sistema o los agentes del mercado eléctrico. Los altos niveles de penetración eólica alcanzados recientemente por algunos países han puesto de manifiesto la necesidad de mejorar las predicciones durante eventos en los que se experimenta una variación importante de la potencia generada por un parque o un conjunto de ellos en un tiempo relativamente corto (del orden de unas pocas horas). Estos eventos, conocidos como rampas, no tienen una única causa, ya que pueden estar motivados por procesos meteorológicos que se dan en muy diferentes escalas espacio-temporales, desde el paso de grandes frentes en la macroescala a procesos convectivos locales como tormentas. Además, el propio proceso de conversión del viento en energía eléctrica juega un papel relevante en la ocurrencia de rampas debido, entre otros factores, a la relación no lineal que impone la curva de potencia del aerogenerador, la desalineación de la máquina con respecto al viento y la interacción aerodinámica entre aerogeneradores. En este trabajo se aborda la aplicación de modelos estadísticos a la predicción de rampas a muy corto plazo. Además, se investiga la relación de este tipo de eventos con procesos atmosféricos en la macroescala. Los modelos se emplean para generar predicciones de punto a partir del modelado estocástico de una serie temporal de potencia generada por un parque eólico. Los horizontes de predicción considerados van de una a seis horas. Como primer paso, se ha elaborado una metodología para caracterizar rampas en series temporales. La denominada función-rampa está basada en la transformada wavelet y proporciona un índice en cada paso temporal. Este índice caracteriza la intensidad de rampa en base a los gradientes de potencia experimentados en un rango determinado de escalas temporales. Se han implementado tres tipos de modelos predictivos de cara a evaluar el papel que juega la complejidad de un modelo en su desempeño: modelos lineales autorregresivos (AR), modelos de coeficientes variables (VCMs) y modelos basado en redes neuronales (ANNs). Los modelos se han entrenado en base a la minimización del error cuadrático medio y la configuración de cada uno de ellos se ha determinado mediante validación cruzada. De cara a analizar la contribución del estado macroescalar de la atmósfera en la predicción de rampas, se ha propuesto una metodología que permite extraer, a partir de las salidas de modelos meteorológicos, información relevante para explicar la ocurrencia de estos eventos. La metodología se basa en el análisis de componentes principales (PCA) para la síntesis de la datos de la atmósfera y en el uso de la información mutua (MI) para estimar la dependencia no lineal entre dos señales. Esta metodología se ha aplicado a datos de reanálisis generados con un modelo de circulación general (GCM) de cara a generar variables exógenas que posteriormente se han introducido en los modelos predictivos. Los casos de estudio considerados corresponden a dos parques eólicos ubicados en España. Los resultados muestran que el modelado de la serie de potencias permitió una mejora notable con respecto al modelo predictivo de referencia (la persistencia) y que al añadir información de la macroescala se obtuvieron mejoras adicionales del mismo orden. Estas mejoras resultaron mayores para el caso de rampas de bajada. Los resultados también indican distintos grados de conexión entre la macroescala y la ocurrencia de rampas en los dos parques considerados. Abstract One of the main drawbacks of wind energy is that it exhibits intermittent generation greatly depending on environmental conditions. Wind power forecasting has proven to be an effective tool for facilitating wind power integration from both the technical and the economical perspective. Indeed, system operators and energy traders benefit from the use of forecasting techniques, because the reduction of the inherent uncertainty of wind power allows them the adoption of optimal decisions. Wind power integration imposes new challenges as higher wind penetration levels are attained. Wind power ramp forecasting is an example of such a recent topic of interest. The term ramp makes reference to a large and rapid variation (1-4 hours) observed in the wind power output of a wind farm or portfolio. Ramp events can be motivated by a broad number of meteorological processes that occur at different time/spatial scales, from the passage of large-scale frontal systems to local processes such as thunderstorms and thermally-driven flows. Ramp events may also be conditioned by features related to the wind-to-power conversion process, such as yaw misalignment, the wind turbine shut-down and the aerodynamic interaction between wind turbines of a wind farm (wake effect). This work is devoted to wind power ramp forecasting, with special focus on the connection between the global scale and ramp events observed at the wind farm level. The framework of this study is the point-forecasting approach. Time series based models were implemented for very short-term prediction, this being characterised by prediction horizons up to six hours ahead. As a first step, a methodology to characterise ramps within a wind power time series was proposed. The so-called ramp function is based on the wavelet transform and it provides a continuous index related to the ramp intensity at each time step. The underlying idea is that ramps are characterised by high power output gradients evaluated under different time scales. A number of state-of-the-art time series based models were considered, namely linear autoregressive (AR) models, varying-coefficient models (VCMs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). This allowed us to gain insights into how the complexity of the model contributes to the accuracy of the wind power time series modelling. The models were trained in base of a mean squared error criterion and the final set-up of each model was determined through cross-validation techniques. In order to investigate the contribution of the global scale into wind power ramp forecasting, a methodological proposal to identify features in atmospheric raw data that are relevant for explaining wind power ramp events was presented. The proposed methodology is based on two techniques: principal component analysis (PCA) for atmospheric data compression and mutual information (MI) for assessing non-linear dependence between variables. The methodology was applied to reanalysis data generated with a general circulation model (GCM). This allowed for the elaboration of explanatory variables meaningful for ramp forecasting that were utilized as exogenous variables by the forecasting models. The study covered two wind farms located in Spain. All the models outperformed the reference model (the persistence) during both ramp and non-ramp situations. Adding atmospheric information had a noticeable impact on the forecasting performance, specially during ramp-down events. Results also suggested different levels of connection between the ramp occurrence at the wind farm level and the global scale.

Steady-state thermal analysis of an innovative receiver for linear Fresnel reflectors

The study of the performance of an innovative receiver for linear Fresnel reflectors is carried out in this paper, and the results are analyzed with a physics perspective of the process. The receiver consists of a bundle of tubes parallel to the mirror arrays, resulting on a smaller cross section for the same receiver width as the number of tubes increases, due to the diminution of their diameter. This implies higher heat carrier fluid speeds, and thus, a more effective heat transfer process, although it conveys higher pumping power as well. Mass flow is optimized for different tubes diameters, different impinging radiation intensities and different fluid inlet temperatures. It is found that the best receiver design, namely the tubes diameter that maximizes the exergetic efficiency for given working conditions, is similar for the cases studied. There is a range of tubes diameters that imply similar efficiencies, which can drive to capital cost reduction thanks to the flexibility of design. In addition, the length of the receiver is also optimized, and it is observed that the optimal length is similar for the working conditions considered. As a result of this study, it is found that this innovative receiver provides an optimum design for the whole day, even though impinging radiation intensity varies notably. Thermal features of this type of receiver could be the base of a new generation of concentrated solar power plants with a great potential for cost reduction, because of the simplicity of the system and the lower weigh of the components, plus the flexibility of using the receiver tubes for different streams of the heat carrier fluid.

Power density of a bare electrodynamic tether generator

The maximum performance of bare electrodynamic tethers as power generating systems under OML-theory is analyzed. Results show that best performance in terms of power density is achieved by designing the tether in such a way to increase ohmic impedance with respect to plasma contact impedance, hence favoring longer and thinner tethers. In such condition the corresponding optimal value of the load impedance is seen to approach the ohmic impedance of the conducting tether. At the other extreme, when plasma contact impedance dominates (which is not optimal but can be relevant for some applications) optimum power generation is found by matching the load impedance with an effective tether-plasma contact impedance whose expression is derived.

Co2 capture in power plants-using the oxy-combustion principle

In the C02 capture from power generation, the energy penalties for the capture are one of the main challenges. Nowadays, the post-combustion methods have energy penalties 10wer than the oxy combustion and pre-combustion technologies. One of the main disadvantages of the post combustion method is the fact that the capture ofC02at atmospheric pressure requires quite big equipment for the high flow rates of flue gas, and the 10w partial pressure of the CO2generates an important 10ss of energy. The A1lam cyc1e presented for NETPOWER gives high efficiencies in the power production and 10w energy penalties. A simulation of this cyc1e is made together with a simulation of power plants with pre-combustion and post-combustion capture and without capture for natural gas and forcoa1. The simulations give 10wer efficiencies than the proposed for NETPOWER For natural gas the efficiency is 52% instead of the 59% presented, and 33% instead of51% in the case of using coal as fuel. Are brought to light problems in the CO2compressor due the high flow ofC02that is compressed unti1300 bar to be recyc1ed into the combustor.

Optimal water allocation in shortage situations as applied to an irrigation community.

This work studies the most beneficial way of allocating water in an irrigation community in water shortage situations. Therefore, it proposes that the irrigation surface area be divided into homogeneous zones, each with a beneficial relationship with respect to the water applied. The mathematical formula that enables one to obtain the optimal quota for the users or irrigation community as a whole has been found for individual relations of a quadratic or power type, and these have yielded different and complementary characteristics. Dimensionless variables have been used to display the results, and to compare with other alternative allocation rules such as the proportional rule, referencing the situation without water restrictions. As a result, for each water shortage situation, the water that is allocated to each user is obtained, together with the losses in individual income and the losses for the community as a whole. Furthermore, a proposal is put forth for establishing the marginal benefit from the water available, which could be of interest in enabling each community to analyze whether it is in its best interest to invest in increasing the resource, or to sell the resource to other users. Finally, an example is given to demonstrate how the method works and to show that, when the differences between the production schemes are considered, the differences in benefit reduction between the proportional allocation and the optimal allocation are also sizeable. Read More: http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/(ASCE)IR.1943-4774.0000667

Mission profile based optimization of a wearable power system

A Wearable Power System (WPS) is a portable power source utilized primarily to power the modern soldier’s electronic equipment. Such a system has to satisfy output power demands in the range of 20 W...200 W, specified as a 4-day mission profile and has a weight limit of 4 kg. To meet these demands, an optimization of a WPS, comprising an internal combustion (IC) engine, permanent magnetic three-phase electrical motor/generator, inverter, Li-batteries, DC-DC converters, and controller, is performed in this paper. The mechanical energy extracted from the fuel by IC engine is transferred to the generator that is used to recharge the battery and provide the power to the electrical output load. The main objectives are to select the engine, fuel and battery type, to match the weight of fuel and the number of battery cells, to find the optimal working point of engine and to minimize the system weight. To provide the second output voltage level of 14 VDC, a separate DC-DC converter is connected between the battery and the load, and optimized for the specified mission profile. A prototype of the WPS based on the optimization presented in the paper results in a total system weight of 3.9 kg and fulfils the mission profile.

Electricity price forecasting accounting for renewable energies: optimal combined forecasts

Electricity price forecasting is an interesting problem for all the agents involved in electricity market operation. For instance, every profit maximisation strategy is based on the computation of accurate one-day-ahead forecasts, which is why electricity price forecasting has been a growing field of research in recent years. In addition, the increasing concern about environmental issues has led to a high penetration of renewable energies, particularly wind. In some European countries such as Spain, Germany and Denmark, renewable energy is having a deep impact on the local power markets. In this paper, we propose an optimal model from the perspective of forecasting accuracy, and it consists of a combination of several univariate and multivariate time series methods that account for the amount of energy produced with clean energies, particularly wind and hydro, which are the most relevant renewable energy sources in the Iberian Market. This market is used to illustrate the proposed methodology, as it is one of those markets in which wind power production is more relevant in terms of its percentage of the total demand, but of course our method can be applied to any other liberalised power market. As far as our contribution is concerned, first, the methodology proposed by García-Martos et al(2007 and 2012) is generalised twofold: we allow the incorporation of wind power production and hydro reservoirs, and we do not impose the restriction of using the same model for 24h. A computational experiment and a Design of Experiments (DOE) are performed for this purpose. Then, for those hours in which there are two or more models without statistically significant differences in terms of their forecasting accuracy, a combination of forecasts is proposed by weighting the best models(according to the DOE) and minimising the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The MAPE is the most popular accuracy metric for comparing electricity price forecasting models. We construct the combi nation of forecasts by solving several nonlinear optimisation problems that allow computation of the optimal weights for building the combination of forecasts. The results are obtained by a large computational experiment that entails calculating out-of-sample forecasts for every hour in every day in the period from January 2007 to Decem ber 2009. In addition, to reinforce the value of our methodology, we compare our results with those that appear in recent published works in the field. This comparison shows the superiority of our methodology in terms of forecasting accuracy.

Wide bandwidth envelope trackers with reduced switching frequency for RF power amplifier

El requerimiento de proveer alta frecuencia de datos en los modernos sistema de comunicación inalámbricos resulta en complejas señales moduladas de radio-frequencia (RF) con un gran ancho de banda y alto ratio pico-promedio (PAPR). Para garantizar la linealidad del comportamiento, los amplificadores lineales de potencia comunes funcionan típicamente entre 4 y 10 dB de back-o_ desde la máxima potencia de salida, ocasionando una baja eficiencia del sistema. La eliminación y restauración de la evolvente (EER) y el seguimiento de la evolvente (ET) son dos prometedoras técnicas para resolver el problema de la eficiencia. Tanto en EER como en ET, es complicado diseñar un amplificador de potencia que sea eficiente para señales de RF de alto ancho de banda y alto PAPR. Una propuesta común para los amplificadores de potencia es incluir un convertidor de potencia de muy alta eficiencia operando a frecuencias más altas que el ancho de banda de la señal RF. En este caso, la potencia perdida del convertidor ocasionado por la alta frecuencia desaconseja su práctica cuando el ancho de banda es muy alto. La solución a este problema es el enfoque de esta disertación que presenta dos arquitecturas de amplificador evolvente: convertidor híbrido-serie con una técnica de evolvente lenta y un convertidor multinivel basado en un convertidor reductor multifase con control de tiempo mínimo. En la primera arquitectura, una topología híbrida está compuesta de una convertidor reductor conmutado y un regulador lineal en serie que trabajan juntos para ajustar la tensión de salida para seguir a la evolvente con precisión. Un algoritmo de generación de una evolvente lenta crea una forma de onda con una pendiente limitada que es menor que la pendiente máxima de la evolvente original. La salida del convertidor reductor sigue esa forma de onda en vez de la evolvente original usando una menor frecuencia de conmutación, porque la forma de onda no sólo tiene una pendiente reducida sino también un menor ancho de banda. De esta forma, el regulador lineal se usa para filtrar la forma de onda tiene una pérdida de potencia adicional. Dependiendo de cuánto se puede reducir la pendiente de la evolvente para producir la forma de onda, existe un trade-off entre la pérdida de potencia del convertidor reductor relacionada con la frecuencia de conmutación y el regulador lineal. El punto óptimo referido a la menor pérdida de potencia total del amplificador de evolvente es capaz de identificarse con la ayuda de modelo preciso de pérdidas que es una combinación de modelos comportamentales y analíticos de pérdidas. Además, se analiza el efecto en la respuesta del filtro de salida del convertidor reductor. Un filtro de dampeo paralelo extra es necesario para eliminar la oscilación resonante del filtro de salida porque el convertidor reductor opera en lazo abierto. La segunda arquitectura es un amplificador de evolvente de seguimiento de tensión multinivel. Al contrario que los convertidores que usan multi-fuentes, un convertidor reductor multifase se emplea para generar la tensión multinivel. En régimen permanente, el convertidor reductor opera en puntos del ciclo de trabajo con cancelación completa del rizado. El número de niveles de tensión es igual al número de fases de acuerdo a las características del entrelazamiento del convertidor reductor. En la transición, un control de tiempo mínimo (MTC) para convertidores multifase es novedosamente propuesto y desarrollado para cambiar la tensión de salida del convertidor reductor entre diferentes niveles. A diferencia de controles convencionales de tiempo mínimo para convertidores multifase con inductancia equivalente, el propuesto MTC considera el rizado de corriente por cada fase basado en un desfase fijo que resulta en diferentes esquemas de control entre las fases. La ventaja de este control es que todas las corrientes vuelven a su fase en régimen permanente después de la transición para que la siguiente transición pueda empezar muy pronto, lo que es muy favorable para la aplicación de seguimiento de tensión multinivel. Además, el control es independiente de la carga y no es afectado por corrientes de fase desbalanceadas. Al igual que en la primera arquitectura, hay una etapa lineal con la misma función, conectada en serie con el convertidor reductor multifase. Dado que tanto el régimen permanente como el estado de transición del convertidor no están fuertemente relacionados con la frecuencia de conmutación, la frecuencia de conmutación puede ser reducida para el alto ancho de banda de la evolvente, la cual es la principal consideración de esta arquitectura. La optimización de la segunda arquitectura para más alto anchos de banda de la evolvente es presentada incluyendo el diseño del filtro de salida, la frecuencia de conmutación y el número de fases. El área de diseño del filtro está restringido por la transición rápida y el mínimo pulso del hardware. La rápida transición necesita un filtro pequeño pero la limitación del pulso mínimo del hardware lleva el diseño en el sentido contrario. La frecuencia de conmutación del convertidor afecta principalmente a la limitación del mínimo pulso y a las pérdidas de potencia. Con una menor frecuencia de conmutación, el ancho de pulso en la transición es más pequeño. El número de fases relativo a la aplicación específica puede ser optimizado en términos de la eficiencia global. Otro aspecto de la optimización es mejorar la estrategia de control. La transición permite seguir algunas partes de la evolvente que son más rápidas de lo que el hardware puede soportar al precio de complejidad. El nuevo método de sincronización de la transición incrementa la frecuencia de la transición, permitiendo que la tensión multinivel esté más cerca de la evolvente. Ambas estrategias permiten que el convertidor pueda seguir una evolvente con un ancho de banda más alto que la limitación de la etapa de potencia. El modelo de pérdidas del amplificador de evolvente se ha detallado y validado mediante medidas. El mecanismo de pérdidas de potencia del convertidor reductor tiene que incluir las transiciones en tiempo real, lo cual es diferente del clásico modelos de pérdidas de un convertidor reductor síncrono. Este modelo estima la eficiencia del sistema y juega un papel muy importante en el proceso de optimización. Finalmente, la segunda arquitectura del amplificador de evolvente se integra con el amplificador de clase F. La medida del sistema EER prueba el ahorro de energía con el amplificador de evolvente propuesto sin perjudicar la linealidad del sistema. ABSTRACT The requirement of delivering high data rates in modern wireless communication systems results in complex modulated RF signals with wide bandwidth and high peak-to-average ratio (PAPR). In order to guarantee the linearity performance, the conventional linear power amplifiers typically work at 4 to 10 dB back-off from the maximum output power, leading to low system efficiency. The envelope elimination and restoration (EER) and envelope tracking (ET) are two promising techniques to overcome the efficiency problem. In both EER and ET, it is challenging to design efficient envelope amplifier for wide bandwidth and high PAPR RF signals. An usual approach for envelope amplifier includes a high-efficiency switching power converter operating at a frequency higher than the RF signal's bandwidth. In this case, the power loss of converter caused by high switching operation becomes unbearable for system efficiency when signal bandwidth is very wide. The solution of this problem is the focus of this dissertation that presents two architectures of envelope amplifier: a hybrid series converter with slow-envelope technique and a multilevel converter based on a multiphase buck converter with the minimum time control. In the first architecture, a hybrid topology is composed of a switched buck converter and a linear regulator in series that work together to adjust the output voltage to track the envelope with accuracy. A slow envelope generation algorithm yields a waveform with limited slew rate that is lower than the maximum slew rate of the original envelope. The buck converter's output follows this waveform instead of the original envelope using lower switching frequency, because the waveform has not only reduced slew rate but also reduced bandwidth. In this way, the linear regulator used to filter the waveform has additional power loss. Depending on how much reduction of the slew rate of envelope in order to obtain that waveform, there is a trade-off between the power loss of buck converter related to the switching frequency and the power loss of linear regulator. The optimal point referring to the lowest total power loss of this envelope amplifier is identified with the help of a precise power loss model that is a combination of behavioral and analytic loss model. In addition, the output filter's effect on the response is analyzed. An extra parallel damping filter is needed to eliminate the resonant oscillation of output filter L and C, because the buck converter operates in open loop. The second architecture is a multilevel voltage tracking envelope amplifier. Unlike the converters using multi-sources, a multiphase buck converter is employed to generate the multilevel voltage. In the steady state, the buck converter operates at complete ripple cancellation points of duty cycle. The number of the voltage levels is equal to the number of phases according the characteristics of interleaved buck converter. In the transition, a minimum time control (MTC) for multiphase converter is originally proposed and developed for changing the output voltage of buck converter between different levels. As opposed to conventional minimum time control for multiphase converter with equivalent inductance, the proposed MTC considers the current ripple of each phase based on the fixed phase shift resulting in different control schemes among the phases. The advantage of this control is that all the phase current return to the steady state after the transition so that the next transition can be triggered very soon, which is very favorable for the application of multilevel voltage tracking. Besides, the control is independent on the load condition and not affected by the unbalance of phase current. Like the first architecture, there is also a linear stage with the same function, connected in series with the multiphase buck converter. Since both steady state and transition state of the converter are not strongly related to the switching frequency, it can be reduced for wide bandwidth envelope which is the main consideration of this architecture. The optimization of the second architecture for wider bandwidth envelope is presented including the output filter design, switching frequency and the number of phases. The filter design area is restrained by fast transition and the minimum pulse of hardware. The fast transition needs small filter but the minimum pulse of hardware limitation pushes the filter in opposite way. The converter switching frequency mainly affects the minimum pulse limitation and the power loss. With lower switching frequency, the pulse width in the transition is smaller. The number of phases related to specific application can be optimized in terms of overall efficiency. Another aspect of optimization is improving control strategy. Transition shift allows tracking some parts of envelope that are faster than the hardware can support at the price of complexity. The new transition synchronization method increases the frequency of transition, allowing the multilevel voltage to be closer to the envelope. Both control strategies push the converter to track wider bandwidth envelope than the limitation of power stage. The power loss model of envelope amplifier is detailed and validated by measurements. The power loss mechanism of buck converter has to include the transitions in real time operation, which is different from classical power loss model of synchronous buck converter. This model estimates the system efficiency and play a very important role in optimization process. Finally, the second envelope amplifier architecture is integrated with a Class F amplifier. EER system measurement proves the power saving with the proposed envelope amplifier without disrupting the linearity performance.

How varies optimal welfare pricing with income distribution? The case of the untolled alternative.

In some countries, such as Spain, it is very common that in the same corridor there are two roads with the same origin and destination but with some differences. The most important contrast is that one is a toll highway which offers a better quality than the parallel road in exchange of a price. The users decide if the price of the toll is worth to pay for the advantages offered. This problem is known as the untolled alternative and it has been largely studied in the academic literature, particularly related to economic efficiency and the optimal welfare toll. However, there is a gap in the literature academic regarding how it affects income distribution to the optimal toll. The main objective of the paper is to fill this gap. In this paper a theoretical model in order to obtain the optimal welfare price in a toll highway that competes for capturing the traffic with a conventional road is developed. This model is done for non-usual users who decide over the expectation of free flow conditions. This model is finally applied to the variables we want to focus on: average value of travel time (VTT) which is strongly related with income, dispersion of this VTT and traffic levels, from free flow to congestion. Derived from the results, we conclude that the higher the average VTT the higher the optimal price, the higher the dispersion of this VTT the lower the optimal price and finally, the more the traffic the higher the optimal toll.

Optimal Combined Forecasts for Electricity Prices: Influence of Clean Energies

In this work, an electricity price forecasting model is developed. The performance of the proposed approach is improved by considering renewable energies (wind power and hydro generation) as explanatory variables. Additionally, the resulting forecasts are obtained as an optimal combination of a set of several univariate and multivariate time series models. The large computational experiment carried out using out-of-sample forecasts for every hour and day allows withdrawing statistically sound conclusions

Solution of optimal continuous low-thrust transfer using Lie transforms

This paper addresses the problem of optimal constant continuous low-thrust transfer in the context of the restricted two-body problem (R2BP). Using the Pontryagin’s principle, the problem is formulated as a two point boundary value problem (TPBVP) for a Hamiltonian system. Lie transforms obtained through the Deprit method allow us to obtain the canonical mapping of the phase flow as a series in terms of the order of magnitude of the thrust applied. The reachable set of states starting from a given initial condition using optimal control policy is obtained analytically. In addition, a particular optimal transfer can be computed as the solution of a non-linear algebraic equation. Se investiga el uso de series y transformadas de Lie en problemas de optimización de trayectorias de satélites impulsados por motores de bajo empuje

High power beam dump project for the accelerator prototype LIPAc: Cooling design and analysis

En el campo de la fusión nuclear y desarrollándose en paralelo a ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor), el proyecto IFMIF (International Fusion Material Irradiation Facility) se enmarca dentro de las actividades complementarias encaminadas a solucionar las barreras tecnológicas que aún plantea la fusión. En concreto IFMIF es una instalación de irradiación cuya misión es caracterizar materiales resistentes a condiciones extremas como las esperadas en los futuros reactores de fusión como DEMO (DEMOnstration power plant). Consiste de dos aceleradores de deuterones que proporcionan un haz de 125 mA y 40 MeV cada uno, que al colisionar con un blanco de litio producen un flujo neutrónico intenso (1017 neutrones/s) con un espectro similar al de los neutrones de fusión [1], [2]. Dicho flujo neutrónico es empleado para irradiar los diferentes materiales candidatos a ser empleados en reactores de fusión, y las muestras son posteriormente examinadas en la llamada instalación de post-irradiación. Como primer paso en tan ambicioso proyecto, una fase de validación y diseño llamada IFMIFEVEDA (Engineering Validation and Engineering Design Activities) se encuentra actualmente en desarrollo. Una de las actividades contempladas en esta fase es la construcción y operación de una acelarador prototipo llamado LIPAc (Linear IFMIF Prototype Accelerator). Se trata de un acelerador de deuterones de alta intensidad idéntico a la parte de baja energía de los aceleradores de IFMIF. Los componentes del LIPAc, que será instalado en Japón, son suministrados por diferentes países europeos. El acelerador proporcionará un haz continuo de deuterones de 9 MeV con una potencia de 1.125 MW que tras ser caracterizado con diversos instrumentos deberá pararse de forma segura. Para ello se requiere un sistema denominado bloque de parada (Beam Dump en inglés) que absorba la energía del haz y la transfiera a un sumidero de calor. España tiene el compromiso de suministrar este componente y CIEMAT (Centro de Investigaciones Energéticas Medioambientales y Tecnológicas) es responsable de dicha tarea. La pieza central del bloque de parada, donde se para el haz de iones, es un cono de cobre con un ángulo de 3.5o, 2.5 m de longitud y 5 mm de espesor. Dicha pieza está refrigerada por agua que fluye en su superficie externa por el canal que se forma entre el cono de cobre y otra pieza concéntrica con éste. Este es el marco en que se desarrolla la presente tesis, cuyo objeto es el diseño del sistema de refrigeración del bloque de parada del LIPAc. El diseño se ha realizado utilizando un modelo simplificado unidimensional. Se han obtenido los parámetros del agua (presión, caudal, pérdida de carga) y la geometría requerida en el canal de refrigeración (anchura, rugosidad) para garantizar la correcta refrigeración del bloque de parada. Se ha comprobado que el diseño permite variaciones del haz respecto a la situación nominal siendo el flujo crítico calorífico al menos 2 veces superior al nominal. Se han realizado asimismo simulaciones fluidodinámicas 3D con ANSYS-CFX en aquellas zonas del canal de refrigeración que lo requieren. El bloque de parada se activará como consecuencia de la interacción del haz de partículas lo que impide cualquier cambio o reparación una vez comenzada la operación del acelerador. Por ello el diseño ha de ser muy robusto y todas las hipótesis utilizadas en la realización de éste deben ser cuidadosamente comprobadas. Gran parte del esfuerzo de la tesis se centra en la estimación del coeficiente de transferencia de calor que es determinante en los resultados obtenidos, y que se emplea además como condición de contorno en los cálculos mecánicos. Para ello por un lado se han buscado correlaciones cuyo rango de aplicabilidad sea adecuado para las condiciones del bloque de parada (canal anular, diferencias de temperatura agua-pared de decenas de grados). En un segundo paso se han comparado los coeficientes de película obtenidos a partir de la correlación seleccionada (Petukhov-Gnielinski) con los que se deducen de simulaciones fluidodinámicas, obteniendo resultados satisfactorios. Por último se ha realizado una validación experimental utilizando un prototipo y un circuito hidráulico que proporciona un flujo de agua con los parámetros requeridos en el bloque de parada. Tras varios intentos y mejoras en el experimento se han obtenido los coeficientes de película para distintos caudales y potencias de calentamiento. Teniendo en cuenta la incertidumbre de las medidas, los valores experimentales concuerdan razonablemente bien (en el rango de 15%) con los deducidos de las correlaciones. Por motivos radiológicos es necesario controlar la calidad del agua de refrigeración y minimizar la corrosión del cobre. Tras un estudio bibliográfico se identificaron los parámetros del agua más adecuados (conductividad, pH y concentración de oxígeno disuelto). Como parte de la tesis se ha realizado asimismo un estudio de la corrosión del circuito de refrigeración del bloque de parada con el doble fin de determinar si puede poner en riesgo la integridad del componente, y de obtener una estimación de la velocidad de corrosión para dimensionar el sistema de purificación del agua. Se ha utilizado el código TRACT (TRansport and ACTivation code) adaptándalo al caso del bloque de parada, para lo cual se trabajó con el responsable (Panos Karditsas) del código en Culham (UKAEA). Los resultados confirman que la corrosión del cobre en las condiciones seleccionadas no supone un problema. La Tesis se encuentra estructurada de la siguiente manera: En el primer capítulo se realiza una introducción de los proyectos IFMIF y LIPAc dentro de los cuales se enmarca esta Tesis. Además se describe el bloque de parada, siendo el diseño del sistema de rerigeración de éste el principal objetivo de la Tesis. En el segundo y tercer capítulo se realiza un resumen de la base teórica así como de las diferentes herramientas empleadas en el diseño del sistema de refrigeración. El capítulo cuarto presenta los resultados del relativos al sistema de refrigeración. Tanto los obtenidos del estudio unidimensional, como los obtenidos de las simulaciones fluidodinámicas 3D mediante el empleo del código ANSYS-CFX. En el quinto capítulo se presentan los resultados referentes al análisis de corrosión del circuito de refrigeración del bloque de parada. El capítulo seis se centra en la descripción del montaje experimental para la obtención de los valores de pérdida de carga y coeficiente de transferencia del calor. Asimismo se presentan los resultados obtenidos en dichos experimentos. Finalmente encontramos un capítulo de apéndices en el que se describen una serie de experimentos llevados a cabo como pasos intermedios en la obtención del resultado experimental del coeficiente de película. También se presenta el código informático empleado para el análisis unidimensional del sistema de refrigeración del bloque de parada llamado CHICA (Cooling and Heating Interaction and Corrosion Analysis). ABSTRACT In the nuclear fusion field running in parallel to ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor) as one of the complementary activities headed towards solving the technological barriers, IFMIF (International Fusion Material Irradiation Facility) project aims to provide an irradiation facility to qualify advanced materials resistant to extreme conditions like the ones expected in future fusion reactors like DEMO (DEMOnstration Power Plant). IFMIF consists of two constant wave deuteron accelerators delivering a 125 mA and 40 MeV beam each that will collide on a lithium target producing an intense neutron fluence (1017 neutrons/s) with a similar spectra to that of fusion neutrons [1], [2]. This neutron flux is employed to irradiate the different material candidates to be employed in the future fusion reactors, and the samples examined after irradiation at the so called post-irradiative facilities. As a first step in such an ambitious project, an engineering validation and engineering design activity phase called IFMIF-EVEDA (Engineering Validation and Engineering Design Activities) is presently going on. One of the activities consists on the construction and operation of an accelerator prototype named LIPAc (Linear IFMIF Prototype Accelerator). It is a high intensity deuteron accelerator identical to the low energy part of the IFMIF accelerators. The LIPAc components, which will be installed in Japan, are delivered by different european countries. The accelerator supplies a 9 MeV constant wave beam of deuterons with a power of 1.125 MW, which after being characterized by different instruments has to be stopped safely. For such task a beam dump to absorb the beam energy and take it to a heat sink is needed. Spain has the compromise of delivering such device and CIEMAT (Centro de Investigaciones Energéticas Medioambientales y Tecnológicas) is responsible for such task. The central piece of the beam dump, where the ion beam is stopped, is a copper cone with an angle of 3.5o, 2.5 m long and 5 mm width. This part is cooled by water flowing on its external surface through the channel formed between the copper cone and a concentric piece with the latter. The thesis is developed in this realm, and its objective is designing the LIPAc beam dump cooling system. The design has been performed employing a simplified one dimensional model. The water parameters (pressure, flow, pressure loss) and the required annular channel geometry (width, rugoisty) have been obtained guaranteeing the correct cooling of the beam dump. It has been checked that the cooling design allows variations of the the beam with respect to the nominal position, being the CHF (Critical Heat Flux) at least twice times higher than the nominal deposited heat flux. 3D fluid dynamic simulations employing ANSYS-CFX code in the beam dump cooling channel sections which require a more thorough study have also been performed. The beam dump will activateasaconsequenceofthe deuteron beam interaction, making impossible any change or maintenance task once the accelerator operation has started. Hence the design has to be very robust and all the hypotheses employed in the design mustbecarefully checked. Most of the work in the thesis is concentrated in estimating the heat transfer coefficient which is decisive in the obtained results, and is also employed as boundary condition in the mechanical analysis. For such task, correlations which applicability range is the adequate for the beam dump conditions (annular channel, water-surface temperature differences of tens of degrees) have been compiled. In a second step the heat transfer coefficients obtained from the selected correlation (Petukhov- Gnielinski) have been compared with the ones deduced from the 3D fluid dynamic simulations, obtaining satisfactory results. Finally an experimental validation has been performed employing a prototype and a hydraulic circuit that supplies a flow with the requested parameters in the beam dump. After several tries and improvements in the experiment, the heat transfer coefficients for different flows and heating powers have been obtained. Considering the uncertainty in the measurements the experimental values agree reasonably well (in the order of 15%) with the ones obtained from the correlations. Due to radiological reasons the quality of the cooling water must be controlled, hence minimizing the copper corrosion. After performing a bibligraphic study the most adequate water parameters were identified (conductivity, pH and dissolved oxygen concentration). As part of this thesis a corrosion study of the beam dump cooling circuit has been performed with the double aim of determining if corrosion can pose a risk for the copper beam dump , and obtaining an estimation of the corrosion velocitytodimension the water purification system. TRACT code(TRansport and ACTivation) has been employed for such study adapting the code for the beam dump case. For such study a collaboration with the code responsible (Panos Karditsas) at Culham (UKAEA) was established. The work developed in this thesis has supposed the publication of three articles in JCR journals (”Journal of Nuclear Materials” y ”Fusion Engineering and Design”), as well as presentations in more than four conferences and relevant meetings.