How is the balance of a forecast ensemble affected by adaptive and non-adaptive localization schemes?

This paper investigates the effect on balance of a number of Schur product-type localization schemes which have been designed with the primary function of reducing spurious far-field correlations in forecast error statistics. The localization schemes studied comprise a non-adaptive scheme (where the moderation matrix is decomposed in a spectral basis), and two adaptive schemes, namely a simplified version of SENCORP (Smoothed ENsemble COrrelations Raised to a Power) and ECO-RAP (Ensemble COrrelations Raised to A Power). The paper shows, we believe for the first time, how the degree of balance (geostrophic and hydrostatic) implied by the error covariance matrices localized by these schemes can be diagnosed. Here it is considered that an effective localization scheme is one that reduces spurious correlations adequately but also minimizes disruption of balance (where the 'correct' degree of balance or imbalance is assumed to be possessed by the unlocalized ensemble). By varying free parameters that describe each scheme (e.g. the degree of truncation in the schemes that use the spectral basis, the 'order' of each scheme, and the degree of ensemble smoothing), it is found that a particular configuration of the ECO-RAP scheme is best suited to the convective-scale system studied. According to our diagnostics this ECO-RAP configuration still weakens geostrophic and hydrostatic balance, but overall this is less so than for other schemes.

A semi-Markov multistate model for estimation of the mean quality-adjusted survival for non-progressive processes

We discuss the estimation of the expected value of the quality-adjusted survival, based on multistate models. We generalize an earlier work, considering the sojourn times in health states are not identically distributed, for a given vector of covariates. Approaches based on semiparametric and parametric (exponential and Weibull distributions) methodologies are considered. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimator and the jackknife resampling method is used to estimate the variance of such estimator. An application to a real data set is also included.

Multi-Objective Pipe Smoothing Genetic Algorithm For Water Distribution Network Design

This paper describes the formulation of a Multi-objective Pipe Smoothing Genetic Algorithm (MOPSGA) and its application to the least cost water distribution network design problem. Evolutionary Algorithms have been widely utilised for the optimisation of both theoretical and real-world non-linear optimisation problems, including water system design and maintenance problems. In this work we present a pipe smoothing based approach to the creation and mutation of chromosomes which utilises engineering expertise with the view to increasing the performance of the algorithm whilst promoting engineering feasibility within the population of solutions. MOPSGA is based upon the standard Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II (NSGA-II) and incorporates a modified population initialiser and mutation operator which directly targets elements of a network with the aim to increase network smoothness (in terms of progression from one diameter to the next) using network element awareness and an elementary heuristic. The pipe smoothing heuristic used in this algorithm is based upon a fundamental principle employed by water system engineers when designing water distribution pipe networks where the diameter of any pipe is never greater than the sum of the diameters of the pipes directly upstream resulting in the transition from large to small diameters from source to the extremities of the network. MOPSGA is assessed on a number of water distribution network benchmarks from the literature including some real-world based, large scale systems. The performance of MOPSGA is directly compared to that of NSGA-II with regard to solution quality, engineering feasibility (network smoothness) and computational efficiency. MOPSGA is shown to promote both engineering and hydraulic feasibility whilst attaining good infrastructure costs compared to NSGA-II.

A roughly smooth optimal consumption path: smoothing the rough annuity puzzle

A inconsistência entre a teoria e o comportamento empírico dos agentes no que tange ao mercado privado de pensões tem se mostrado um dos mais resistentes puzzles presentes na literatura econômica. Em modelos de otimização intertemporal de consumo e poupança sob incerteza em relação ao tempo de vida dos agentes, anuidades são ativos dominantes, anulando ou restringindo fortemente a demanda por ativos cujos retornos não estão relacionados à probabilidade de sobrevivência. Na prática, entretanto, consumidores são extremamente céticos em relação às anuidades. Em oposição ao seguro contra longevidade oferecido pelas anuidades, direitos sobre esses ativos - essencialmente ilíquidos - cessam no caso de morte do titular. Nesse sentido, choques não seguráveis de liquidez e a presença de bequest motives foram consideravelmente explorados como possíveis determinantes da baixa demanda verificada. Apesar dos esforços, o puzzle persiste. Este trabalho amplia a dominância teórica das anuidades sobre ativos não contingentes em mercados incompletos; total na ausência de bequest motives, e parcial, quando os agentes se preocupam com possíveis herdeiros. Em linha com a literatura, simulações numéricas atestam que uma parcela considerável do portfolio ótimo dos agentes seria constituída de anuidades mesmo diante de choques de liquidez, bequest motives, e preços não atuarialmente justos. Em relação a um aspecto relativamente negligenciado pela academia, mostramos que o tempo ótimo de conversão de poupança em anuidades está diretamente relacionado à curva salarial dos agentes. Finalmente, indicamos que, caso as preferências dos agentes sejam tais que o nível de consumo ótimo decaia com a idade, a demanda por anuidades torna-se bastante sensível ao sobrepreço (em relação àquele atuarialmente justo) praticado pela indústria, chegando a níveis bem mais compatíveis com a realidade empírica.

Simulation-based smoothing and filtering in factor stochastic volatility models : two econometric applications

In this article we use factor models to describe a certain class of covariance structure for financiaI time series models. More specifical1y, we concentrate on situations where the factor variances are modeled by a multivariate stochastic volatility structure. We build on previous work by allowing the factor loadings, in the factor mo deI structure, to have a time-varying structure and to capture changes in asset weights over time motivated by applications with multi pIe time series of daily exchange rates. We explore and discuss potential extensions to the models exposed here in the prediction area. This discussion leads to open issues on real time implementation and natural model comparisons.

Simulation -based smoothing and filtering in factor stochastic volatility models : two econometric applications (July-2001)

The past decade has wítenessed a series of (well accepted and defined) financial crises periods in the world economy. Most of these events aI,"e country specific and eventually spreaded out across neighbor countries, with the concept of vicinity extrapolating the geographic maps and entering the contagion maps. Unfortunately, what contagion represents and how to measure it are still unanswered questions. In this article we measure the transmission of shocks by cross-market correlation\ coefficients following Forbes and Rigobon's (2000) notion of shift-contagion,. Our main contribution relies upon the use of traditional factor model techniques combined with stochastic volatility mo deIs to study the dependence among Latin American stock price indexes and the North American indexo More specifically, we concentrate on situations where the factor variances are modeled by a multivariate stochastic volatility structure. From a theoretical perspective, we improve currently available methodology by allowing the factor loadings, in the factor model structure, to have a time-varying structure and to capture changes in the series' weights over time. By doing this, we believe that changes and interventions experienced by those five countries are well accommodated by our models which learns and adapts reasonably fast to those economic and idiosyncratic shocks. We empirically show that the time varying covariance structure can be modeled by one or two common factors and that some sort of contagion is present in most of the series' covariances during periods of economical instability, or crisis. Open issues on real time implementation and natural model comparisons are thoroughly discussed.

Parametric analyses of anxiety in zebrafish scototaxis

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

SPH simulations of clumps formation by dissipative collision of molecular clouds - I. Non magnetic case

Computer experiments of interstellar cloud collisions were performed with a new smoothed-particle-hydrodynamics (SPH) code. The SPH quantities were calculated by using spatially adaptive smoothing lengths and the SPH fluid equations of motion were solved by means of a hierarchical multiple time-scale leapfrog. Such a combination of methods allows the code to deal with a large range of hydrodynamic quantities. A careful treatment of gas cooling by H, H(2), CO and H II, as well as a heating mechanism by cosmic rays and by H(2) production on grains surface, were also included in the code. The gas model reproduces approximately the typical environment of dark molecular clouds. The experiments were performed by impinging two dynamically identical spherical clouds onto each other with a relative velocity of 10 km s(-1) but with a different impact parameter for each case. Each object has an initial density profile obeying an r(-1)-law with a cutoff radius of 10 pc and with an initial temperature of 20 K. As a main result, cloud-cloud collision triggers fragmentation but in expense of a large amount of energy dissipated, which occurred in the head-on case only. Off-center collision did not allow remnants to fragment along the considered time (similar to 6 Myr). However, it dissipated a considerable amount of orbital energy. Structures as small as 0.1 pc, with densities of similar to 10(4) cm(-3), were observed in the more energetic collision.

Heat transfer in fixed bed: a model non-linearity approach

Studies have been carried out on the heat transfer in a packed bed of glass beads percolated by air at moderate flow rates. Rigorous statistic analysis of the experimental data was carried out and the traditional two parameter model was used to represent them. The parameters estimated were the effective radial thermal conductivity, k, and the wall coefficient, h, through the least squares method. The results were evaluated as to the boundary bed inlet temperature, T-o, number of terms of the solution series and number of experimental points used in the estimate. Results indicated that a small difference in T-o was sufficient to promote great modifications in the estimated parameters and in the statistical properties of the model. The use of replicas at points of high parametric information of the model improved the results, although analysis of the residuals has resulted in the rejection of this alternative. In order to evaluate cion-linearity of the model, Bates and Watts (1988) curvature measurements and the Box (1971) biases of the coefficients were calculated. The intrinsic curvatures of the model (IN) tend to be concentrated at low bed heights and those due to parameter effects (PE) are spread all over the bed. The Box biases indicated both parameters as responsible for the curvatures PE, h being somewhat more problematic. (C) 2000 Elsevier B.V. Ltd. All rights reserved.

Non-linear analysis of reinforced concrete plates by the boundary element method and continuum damage mechanics

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Robust control to parametric uncertainties in smart structures using linear matrix inequalities

The study of algorithms for active vibrations control in flexible structures became an area of enormous interest, mainly due to the countless demands of an optimal performance of mechanical systems as aircraft and aerospace structures. Smart structures, formed by a structure base, coupled with piezoelectric actuators and sensor are capable to guarantee the conditions demanded through the application of several types of controllers. This article shows some steps that should be followed in the design of a smart structure. It is discussed: the optimal placement of actuators, the model reduction and the controller design through techniques involving linear matrix inequalities (LMI). It is considered as constraints in LMI: the decay rate, voltage input limitation in the actuators and bounded output peak (output energy). Two controllers robust to parametric variation are designed: the first one considers the actuator in non-optimal location and the second one the actuator is put in an optimal placement. The performance are compared and discussed. The simulations to illustrate the methodology are made with a cantilever beam with bonded piezoelectric actuators.

On numerical simulations of a nonlinear self-excited system with two non-ideal sources

In this work, the dynamic behavior of self-synchronization and synchronization through mechanical interactions between the nonlinear self-excited oscillating system and two non-ideal sources are examined by numerical simulations. The physical model of the system vibrating consists of a non-linear spring of Duffing type and a nonlinear damping described by Rayleigh's term. This system is additional forced by two unbalanced identical direct current motors with limited power (non-ideal excitations). The present work mathematically implements the parametric excitation described by two periodically changing stiffness of Mathieu type that are switched on/off. Copyright © 2005 by ASME.

On nonlinear dynamics in a free fluid surface of a tank excited by a non-ideal power source

We investigate the nonlinear oscillations in a free surface of a fluid in a cylinder tank excited by non-ideal power source, an electric motor with limited power supply. We study the possibility of parametric resonance in this system, showing that the excitation mechanism can generate chaotic response. Additionally, the dynamics of parametrically excited surface waves in the tank can reveal new characteristics of the system. The fluid-dynamic system is modeled in such way as to obtain a nonlinear differential equation system. Numerical experiments are carried out to find the regions of chaotic solutions. Simulation results are presented as phase-portrait diagrams characterizing the resonant vibrations of free fluid surface and the existence of several types of regular and chaotic attractors. We also describe the energy transfer in the interaction process between the hydrodynamic system and the electric motor. Copyright © 2011 by ASME.

A note on non-linear phenomena in a non-ideal oscillator, with a snap-through truss absorber, including parameter uncertainties

This work considers the vibrating system that consists of a snap-through truss absorber coupled to an oscillator under excitation of an electric motor with an eccentricity and limited power, characterizing a non-ideal oscillator. It is aimed to use the non-linearity and quasi-zero stiffness of absorber (snap-through truss absorber) to obtain a significantly attenuation the jump phenomenon. There is also an interest to exhibit the reduction of Sommerfeld effect, to confirm the saturation phenomenon occurrence and show the power transfer in a non-linear structure, evidencing the pumping energy. As shown by simulations in this work, this absorber allows the energy pumping before and during the jump phenomenon, decreasing the higher amplitudes of considered system. Additionally, the occurrence of saturation phenomenon due use of snap-through truss absorber is verified. The analysis of parameter uncertainties was introduced. Sensitivity of system with parametric errors demonstrated a trustable system. © IMechE 2012.

Optimal linear control to parametric uncertainties in a micro electro mechanical system

This paper, a micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) with parametric uncertainties is considered. The non-linear dynamics in MEMS system is demonstrated with a chaotic behavior. We present the linear optimal control technique for reducing the chaotic movement of the micro-electromechanical system with parametric uncertainties to a small periodic orbit. The simulation results show the identification by linear optimal control is very effective. © 2013 Academic Publications, Ltd.