Coupled diusion and mechanics in battery electrodes

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Future Bloom and Blossom Frost Risk for Malus domestica Considering Climate Model and Impact Model Uncertainties

The future bloom and risk of blossom frosts for Malus domestica were projected using regional climate realizations and phenological (= impact) models. As climate impact projections are susceptible to uncertainties of climate and impact models and model concatenation, the significant horizon of the climate impact signal was analyzed by applying 7 impact models, including two new developments, on 13 climate realizations of the IPCC emission scenario A1B. Advancement of phenophases and a decrease in blossom frost risk for Lower Saxony (Germany) for early and late ripeners was determined by six out of seven phenological models. Single model/single grid point time series of bloom showed significant trends by 2021-2050 compared to 1971-2000, whereas the joint signal of all climate and impact models did not stabilize until 2043. Regarding blossom frost risk, joint projection variability exceeded the projected signal. Thus, blossom frost risk cannot be stated to be lower by the end of the 21st century despite a negative trend. As a consequence it is however unlikely to increase. Uncertainty of temperature, blooming date and blossom frost risk projection reached a minimum at 2078-2087. The projected phenophases advanced by 5.5 d K-1, showing partial compensation of delayed fulfillment of the winter chill requirement and faster completion of the following forcing phase in spring. Finally, phenological model performance was improved by considering the length of day.

Incorporation of Hysteretic Effects in Model-Order Reduction Analysis of Magnetic Devices

The ability to predict the properties of magnetic materials in a device is essential to ensuring the correct operation and optimization of the design as well as the device behavior over a wide range of input frequencies. Typically, development and simulation of wide-bandwidth models requires detailed, physics-based simulations that utilize significant computational resources. Balancing the trade-offs between model computational overhead and accuracy can be cumbersome, especially when the nonlinear effects of saturation and hysteresis are included in the model. This study focuses on the development of a system for analyzing magnetic devices in cases where model accuracy and computational intensity must be carefully and easily balanced by the engineer. A method for adjusting model complexity and corresponding level of detail while incorporating the nonlinear effects of hysteresis is presented that builds upon recent work in loss analysis and magnetic equivalent circuit (MEC) modeling. The approach utilizes MEC models in conjunction with linearization and model-order reduction techniques to process magnetic devices based on geometry and core type. The validity of steady-state permeability approximations is also discussed.

Exergetic, energetic, economic and environmental evaluation of concentrated solar power plants in Libya

The PhD project addresses the potential of using concentrating solar power (CSP) plants as a viable alternative energy producing system in Libya. Exergetic, energetic, economic and environmental analyses are carried out for a particular type of CSP plants. The study, although it aims a particular type of CSP plant – 50 MW parabolic trough-CSP plant, it is sufficiently general to be applied to other configurations. The novelty of the study, in addition to modeling and analyzing the selected configuration, lies in the use of a state-of-the-art exergetic analysis combined with the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The modeling and simulation of the plant is carried out in chapter three and they are conducted into two parts, namely: power cycle and solar field. The computer model developed for the analysis of the plant is based on algebraic equations describing the power cycle and the solar field. The model was solved using the Engineering Equation Solver (EES) software; and is designed to define the properties at each state point of the plant and then, sequentially, to determine energy, efficiency and irreversibility for each component. The developed model has the potential of using in the preliminary design of CSPs and, in particular, for the configuration of the solar field based on existing commercial plants. Moreover, it has the ability of analyzing the energetic, economic and environmental feasibility of using CSPs in different regions of the world, which is illustrated for the Libyan region in this study. The overall feasibility scenario is completed through an hourly analysis on an annual basis in chapter Four. This analysis allows the comparison of different systems and, eventually, a particular selection, and it includes both the economic and energetic components using the “greenius” software. The analysis also examined the impact of project financing and incentives on the cost of energy. The main technological finding of this analysis is higher performance and lower levelized cost of electricity (LCE) for Libya as compared to Southern Europe (Spain). Therefore, Libya has the potential of becoming attractive for the establishment of CSPs in its territory and, in this way, to facilitate the target of several European initiatives that aim to import electricity generated by renewable sources from North African and Middle East countries. The analysis is presented a brief review of the current cost of energy and the potential of reducing the cost from parabolic trough- CSP plant. Exergetic and environmental life cycle assessment analyses are conducted for the selected plant in chapter Five; the objectives are 1) to assess the environmental impact and cost, in terms of exergy of the life cycle of the plant; 2) to find out the points of weakness in terms of irreversibility of the process; and 3) to verify whether solar power plants can reduce environmental impact and the cost of electricity generation by comparing them with fossil fuel plants, in particular, Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) plant and oil thermal power plant. The analysis also targets a thermoeconomic analysis using the specific exergy costing (SPECO) method to evaluate the level of the cost caused by exergy destruction. The main technological findings are that the most important contribution impact lies with the solar field, which reports a value of 79%; and the materials with the vi highest impact are: steel (47%), molten salt (25%) and synthetic oil (21%). The “Human Health” damage category presents the highest impact (69%) followed by the “Resource” damage category (24%). In addition, the highest exergy demand is linked to the steel (47%); and there is a considerable exergetic demand related to the molten salt and synthetic oil with values of 25% and 19%, respectively. Finally, in the comparison with fossil fuel power plants (NGCC and Oil), the CSP plant presents the lowest environmental impact, while the worst environmental performance is reported to the oil power plant followed by NGCC plant. The solar field presents the largest value of cost rate, where the boiler is a component with the highest cost rate among the power cycle components. The thermal storage allows the CSP plants to overcome solar irradiation transients, to respond to electricity demand independent of weather conditions, and to extend electricity production beyond the availability of daylight. Numerical analysis of the thermal transient response of a thermocline storage tank is carried out for the charging phase. The system of equations describing the numerical model is solved by using time-implicit and space-backward finite differences and which encoded within the Matlab environment. The analysis presented the following findings: the predictions agree well with the experiments for the time evolution of the thermocline region, particularly for the regions away from the top-inlet. The deviations observed in the near-region of the inlet are most likely due to the high-level of turbulence in this region due to the localized level of mixing resulting; a simple analytical model to take into consideration this increased turbulence level was developed and it leads to some improvement of the predictions; this approach requires practically no additional computational effort and it relates the effective thermal diffusivity to the mean effective velocity of the fluid at each particular height of the system. Altogether the study indicates that the selected parabolic trough-CSP plant has the edge over alternative competing technologies for locations where DNI is high and where land usage is not an issue, such as the shoreline of Libya.

THE EFFECTIVENESS OF POINT-OF-VIEW VIDEO MODELING IN TEACHING SOCIAL INITIATION SKILLS TO CHILDREN WITH AUTISM SPECTRUM DISORDERS

Deficits in social communication and interaction have been identified as distinguishing impairments for individuals with an autism spectrum disorder (ASD). As a pivotal skill, the successful development of social communication and interaction in individuals with ASD is a lifelong objective. Point-of-view video modeling has the potential to address these deficits. This type of video involves filming the completion of a targeted skill or behavior from a first-person perspective. By presenting only what a person might see from his or her viewpoint, it has been identified to be more effective in limiting irrelevant stimuli by providing a clear frame of reference to facilitate imitation. The current study investigated the use of point-of-view video modeling in teaching social initiations (e.g., greetings). Using a multiple baseline across participants design, five kindergarten participants were taught social initiations using point-of-view video modeling and video priming. Immediately before and after viewing the entire point-of-view video model, the participants were evaluated on their social initiations with a trained, typically developing peer serving as a communication partner. Specifically, the social initiations involved participants’ abilities to shift their attention toward the peer who entered the classroom, maintain attention toward the peer, and engage in an appropriate social initiation (e.g., hi, hello). Both generalization and maintenance were tested. Overall, the data suggest point-of-view video modeling is an effective intervention for increasing social initiations in young students with ASD. However, retraining was necessary for acquisition of skills in the classroom environment. Generalization in novel environments and with a novel communication partner, and generalization to other social initiation skills was limited. Additionally, maintenance of gained social initiation skills only occurred in the intervention room. Despite the limitations of the study and variable results, there are a number of implications moving forward for both practitioners and future researchers examining point-of-view modeling and its potential impact on the social initiation skills of individuals with ASD.

Definition of Model-based diagnosis problems with Altarica

International audience

Activity-based life cycle costing model for cost estimation and monitoring – Case: manned and autonomous dry bulk carrier

Recent developments in automation, robotics and artificial intelligence have given a push to a wider usage of these technologies in recent years, and nowadays, driverless transport systems are already state-of-the-art on certain legs of transportation. This has given a push for the maritime industry to join the advancement. The case organisation, AAWA initiative, is a joint industry-academia research consortium with the objective of developing readiness for the first commercial autonomous solutions, exploiting state-of-the-art autonomous and remote technology. The initiative develops both autonomous and remote operation technology for navigation, machinery, and all on-board operating systems. The aim of this study is to develop a model with which to estimate and forecast the operational costs, and thus enable comparisons between manned and autonomous cargo vessels. The building process of the model is also described and discussed. Furthermore, the model’s aim is to track and identify the critical success factors of the chosen ship design, and to enable monitoring and tracking of the incurred operational costs as the life cycle of the vessel progresses. The study adopts the constructive research approach, as the aim is to develop a construct to meet the needs of a case organisation. Data has been collected through discussions and meeting with consortium members and researchers, as well as through written and internal communications material. The model itself is built using activity-based life cycle costing, which enables both realistic cost estimation and forecasting, as well as the identification of critical success factors due to the process-orientation adopted from activity-based costing and the statistical nature of Monte Carlo simulation techniques. As the model was able to meet the multiple aims set for it, and the case organisation was satisfied with it, it could be argued that activity-based life cycle costing is the method with which to conduct cost estimation and forecasting in the case of autonomous cargo vessels. The model was able to perform the cost analysis and forecasting, as well as to trace the critical success factors. Later on, it also enabled, albeit hypothetically, monitoring and tracking of the incurred costs. By collecting costs this way, it was argued that the activity-based LCC model is able facilitate learning from and continuous improvement of the autonomous vessel. As with the building process of the model, an individual approach was chosen, while still using the implementation and model building steps presented in existing literature. This was due to two factors: the nature of the model and – perhaps even more importantly – the nature of the case organisation. Furthermore, the loosely organised network structure means that knowing the case organisation and its aims is of great importance when conducting a constructive research.

Hand detection on images based on deformable part models and additional features

Hand detection on images has important applications on person activities recognition. This thesis focuses on PASCAL Visual Object Classes (VOC) system for hand detection. VOC has become a popular system for object detection, based on twenty common objects, and has been released with a successful deformable parts model in VOC2007. A hand detection on an image is made when the system gets a bounding box which overlaps with at least 50% of any ground truth bounding box for a hand on the image. The initial average precision of this detector is around 0.215 compared with a state-of-art of 0.104; however, color and frequency features for detected bounding boxes contain important information for re-scoring, and the average precision can be improved to 0.218 with these features. Results show that these features help on getting higher precision for low recall, even though the average precision is similar.

Tracking the attenuation and nonbreaking dissipation of swells using altimeters

A method for systematically tracking swells across oceanic basins is developed by taking advantage of high-quality data from space-borne altimeters and wave model output. The evolution of swells is observed over large distances based on 202 swell events with periods ranging from 12 to 18 s. An empirical attenuation rate of swell energy of about 4 × 10−7 m−1 is estimated using these observations, and the nonbreaking energy dissipation rates of swells far away from their generating areas are also estimated using a point source model. The resulting acceptance range of nonbreaking dissipation rates is −2.5 to 5.0 × 10−7 m−1, which corresponds to a dissipation e-folding scales of at least 2000 km for steep swells, to almost infinite for small-amplitude swells. These resulting rates are consistent with previous studies using in-situ and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observations. The frequency dispersion and angular spreading effects during swell propagation are discussed by comparing the results with other studies, demonstrating that they are the two dominant processes for swell height attenuation, especially in the near field. The resulting dissipation rates from these observations can be used as a reference for ocean engineering and wave modeling, and for related studies such as air-sea and wind-wave-turbulence interactions.

Solid-liquid interactions in microscale structures and devices

Liquid-solid interactions become important as dimensions approach mciro/nano-scale. This dissertation focuses on liquid-solid interactions in two distinct applications: capillary driven self-assembly of thin foils into 3D structures, and droplet wetting of hydrophobic micropatterned surfaces. The phenomenon of self-assembly of complex structures is common in biological systems. Examples include self-assembly of proteins into macromolecular structures and self-assembly of lipid bilayer membranes. The principles governing this phenomenon have been applied to induce self-assembly of millimeter scale Si thin films into spherical and other 3D structures, which are then integrated into light-trapping photovoltaic (PV) devices. Motivated by this application, we present a generalized analytical study of the self-folding of thin plates into deterministic 3D shapes, through fluid-solid interactions, to be used as PV devices. This study consists of developing a model using beam theory, which incorporates the two competing components — a capillary force that promotes folding and the bending rigidity of the foil that resists folding into a 3D structure. Through an equivalence argument of thin foils of different geometry, an effective folding parameter, which uniquely characterizes the driving force for folding, has been identified. A criterion for spontaneous folding of an arbitrarily shaped 2D foil, based on the effective folding parameter, is thus established. Measurements from experiments using different materials and predictions from the model match well, validating the assumptions used in the analysis. As an alternative to the mechanics model approach, the minimization of the total free energy is employed to investigate the interactions between a fluid droplet and a flexible thin film. A 2D energy functional is proposed, comprising the surface energy of the fluid, bending energy of the thin film and gravitational energy of the fluid. Through simulations with Surface Evolver, the shapes of the droplet and the thin film at equilibrium are obtained. A critical thin film length necessary for complete enclosure of the fluid droplet, and hence successful self-assembly into a PV device, is determined and compared with the experimental results and mechanics model predictions. The results from the modeling and energy approaches and the experiments are all consistent. Superhydrophobic surfaces, which have unique properties including self-cleaning and water repelling are desired in many applications. One excellent example in nature is the lotus leaf. To fabricate these surfaces, well designed micro/nano- surface structures are often employed. In this research, we fabricate superhydrophobic micropatterned Polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) surfaces composed of micropillars of various sizes and arrangements by means of soft lithography. Both anisotropic surfaces, consisting of parallel grooves and cylindrical pillars in rectangular lattices, and isotropic surfaces, consisting of cylindrical pillars in square and hexagonal lattices, are considered. A novel technique is proposed to image the contact line (CL) of the droplet on the hydrophobic surface. This technique provides a new approach to distinguish between partial and complete wetting. The contact area between droplet and microtextured surface is then measured for a droplet in the Cassie state, which is a state of partial wetting. The results show that although the droplet is in the Cassie state, the contact area does not necessarily follow Cassie model predictions. Moreover, the CL is not circular, and is affected by the micropatterns, in both isotropic and anisotropic cases. Thus, it is suggested that along with the contact angle — the typical parameter reported in literature quantifying wetting, the size and shape of the contact area should also be presented. This technique is employed to investigate the evolution of the CL on a hydrophobic micropatterned surface in the cases of: a single droplet impacting the micropatterned surface, two droplets coalescing on micropillars, and a receding droplet resting on the micropatterned surface. Another parameter which quantifies hydrophobicity is the contact angle hysteresis (CAH), which indicates the resistance of the surface to the sliding of a droplet with a given volume. The conventional methods of using advancing and receding angles or tilting stage to measure the resistance of the micropatterned surface are indirect, without mentioning the inaccuracy due to the discrete and stepwise motion of the CL on micropillars. A micronewton force sensor is utilized to directly measure the resisting force by dragging a droplet on a microtextured surface. Together with the proposed imaging technique, the evolution of the CL during sliding is also explored. It is found that, at the onset of sliding, the CL behaves as a linear elastic solid with a constant stiffness. Afterwards, the force first increases and then decreases and reaches a steady state, accompanied with periodic oscillations due to regular pinning and depinning of the CL. Both the maximum and steady state forces are primarily dependent on area fractions of the micropatterned surfaces in our experiment. The resisting force is found to be proportional to the number of pillars which pin the CL at the trailing edge, validating the assumption that the resistance mainly arises from the CL pinning at the trailing edge. In each pinning-and-depinning cycle during the steady state, the CL also shows linear elastic behavior but with a lower stiffness. The force variation and energy dissipation involved can also be determined. This novel method of measuring the resistance of the micropatterned surface elucidates the dependence on CL pinning and provides more insight into the mechanisms of CAH.

Simulating the effects of vegetation and landscape structure on fire behavior in northeastern Portugal: the case of holm oak (Quercus rotundifolia)

O fogo é um processo frequente nas paisagens do norte de Portugal. Estudos anteriores mostraram que os bosques de azinheira (Quercus rotundifolia) persistem após a passagem do fogo e ajudam a diminuir a sua intensidade e taxa de propagação. Os principais objetivos deste estudo foram compreender e modelar o efeito dos bosques de azinheira no comportamento do fogo ao nível da paisagem da bacia superior do rio Sabor, localizado no nordeste de Portugal. O impacto dos bosques de azinheira no comportamento do fogo foi testado em termos de área e configuração de acordo com cenários que simulam a possível distribuição destas unidades de vegetação na paisagem, considerando uma percentagem de ocupação da azinheira de 2.2% (Low), 18.1% (Moderate), 26.0% (High), e 39.8% (Rivers). Estes cenários tiveram como principal objetivo testar 1) o papel dos bosques de azinheira no comportamento do fogo e 2) de que forma a configuração das manchas de azinheira podem ajudar a diminuir a intensidade da linha de fogo e área ardida. Na modelação do comportamento do fogo foi usado o modelo FlamMap para simular a intensidade de linha do fogo e taxa de propagação do fogo com base em modelos de combustível associados a cada ocupação e uso do solo presente na área de estudo, e também com base em fatores topográficos (altitude, declive e orientação da encosta) e climáticos (humidade e velocidade do vento). Foram ainda usados dois modelos de combustível para a ocupação de azinheira (áreas interiores e de bordadura), desenvolvidos com base em dados reais obtidos na região. Usou-se o software FRAGSATS para a análise dos padrões espaciais das classes de intensidade de linha do fogo, usando-se as métricas Class Area (CA), Number of Patches (NP) e Large Patches Index (LPI). Os resultados obtidos indicaram que a intensidade da linha de fogo e a taxa de propagação do fogo variou entre cenários e entre modelos de combustível para o azinhal. A intensidade média da linha de fogo e a taxa média de propagação do fogo decresceu à medida que a percentagem de área de bosques de azinheira aumentou na paisagem. Também foi observado que as métricas CA, NP e LPI variaram entre cenários e modelos de combustível para o azinhal, decrescendo quando a percentagem de área de bosques de azinheira aumentou. Este estudo permitiu concluir que a variação da percentagem de ocupação e configuração espacial dos bosques de azinheira influenciam o comportamento do fogo, reduzindo, em termos médios, a intensidade da linha de fogo e a taxa de propagação, sugerindo que os bosques de azinhal podem ser usados como medidas silvícolas preventivas para diminuir o risco de incêndio nesta região.

Towards a Framework for Analyzing and Evaluating Servitization Potential: Case Study of ENVIE Loire

Part 4: Transition Towards Product-Service Systems

Optimisation of a crossdocking distribution centre simulation model

This paper reports on continuing research into the modelling of an order picking process within a Crossdocking distribution centre using Simulation Optimisation. The aim of this project is to optimise a discrete event simulation model and to understand factors that affect finding its optimal performance. Our initial investigation revealed that the precision of the selected simulation output performance measure and the number of replications required for the evaluation of the optimisation objective function through simulation influences the ability of the optimisation technique. We experimented with Common Random Numbers, in order to improve the precision of our simulation output performance measure, and intended to use the number of replications utilised for this purpose as the initial number of replications for the optimisation of our Crossdocking distribution centre simulation model. Our results demonstrate that we can improve the precision of our selected simulation output performance measure value using Common Random Numbers at various levels of replications. Furthermore, after optimising our Crossdocking distribution centre simulation model, we are able to achieve optimal performance using fewer simulations runs for the simulation model which uses Common Random Numbers as compared to the simulation model which does not use Common Random Numbers.

EXPERIMENTAL DEMONSTRATION OF LIGHT TRAPPING AND INTERNAL LIGHT SCATTERING IN SOLAR CELLS

Renewable energy technologies have long-term economic and environmental advantages over fossil fuels, and solar power is the most abundant renewable resource, supplying 120 PW over earth’s surface. In recent years the cost of photovoltaic modules has reached grid parity in many areas of the world, including much of the USA. A combination of economic and environmental factors has encouraged the adoption of solar technology and led to an annual growth rate in photovoltaic capacity of 76% in the US between 2010 and 2014. Despite the enormous growth of the solar energy industry, commercial unit efficiencies are still far below their theoretical limits. A push for thinner cells may reduce device cost and could potentially increase device performance. Fabricating thinner cells reduces bulk recombination, but at the cost of absorbing less light. This tradeoff generally benefits thinner devices due to reduced recombination. The effect continues up to a maximum efficiency where the benefit of reduced recombination is overwhelmed by the suppressed absorption. Light trapping allows the solar cell to circumvent this limitation and realize further performance gains (as well as continue cost reduction) from decreasing the device thickness. This thesis presents several advances in experimental characterization, theoretical modeling, and device applications for light trapping in thin-film solar cells. We begin by introducing light trapping strategies and discuss theoretical limits of light trapping in solar cells. This is followed by an overview of the equipment developed for light trapping characterization. Next we discuss our recent work measuring internal light scattering and a new model of scattering to predict the effects of dielectric nanoparticle back scatterers on thin-film device absorption. The new model is extended and generalized to arbitrary stacks of stratified media containing scattering structures. Finally, we investigate an application of these techniques using polymer dispersed liquid crystals to produce switchable solar windows. We show that these devices have the potential for self-powering.

Collaborative Networked Organizations as System of Systems: A Model-Based Engineering Approach

Part 6: Engineering and Implementation of Collaborative Networks