A Critical Review of Opinion Polls relating to Iranian Voting Intentions: Problems of Research Methodology as applied to Complex Societies

After the 10th Iranian Presidential election on June 12, 2009, several public opinion polls taken in Iran attracted the attention of policy-makers and journalists around the world because of the political crisis that followed. In this paper I first review critically the polls conducted by the WPO (WorldPublicOpinion.org), PIPA (Program on International Policy Attitudes) at the University of Maryland. I also review an essay by Steven Kull, which is based on the aforementioned poll results and which in my opinion leads to false conclusions concerning Iran’s political prospects. I also discuss “An Analysis of Multiple Polls of the Iranian Public,” published by WPO-PIPA on February 3 2010. The present paper arrives at the overall conclusion that it is impossible to obtain an accurate image of political opinions in societies as complicated as that of Iran by concentrating on only one technique of research and analysis, especially when the political and social situation in the society concerned is in a state of constant flux.

On nonlinearity in neural encoding models applied to the primary visual cortex

Within the regression framework, we show how different levels of nonlinearity influence the instantaneous firing rate prediction of single neurons. Nonlinearity can be achieved in several ways. In particular, we can enrich the predictor set with basis expansions of the input variables (enlarging the number of inputs) or train a simple but different model for each area of the data domain. Spline-based models are popular within the first category. Kernel smoothing methods fall into the second category. Whereas the first choice is useful for globally characterizing complex functions, the second is very handy for temporal data and is able to include inner-state subject variations. Also, interactions among stimuli are considered. We compare state-of-the-art firing rate prediction methods with some more sophisticated spline-based nonlinear methods: multivariate adaptive regression splines and sparse additive models. We also study the impact of kernel smoothing. Finally, we explore the combination of various local models in an incremental learning procedure. Our goal is to demonstrate that appropriate nonlinearity treatment can greatly improve the results. We test our hypothesis on both synthetic data and real neuronal recordings in cat primary visual cortex, giving a plausible explanation of the results from a biological perspective.

Uncertainty assessment methodologies applied to Tritium production in fusion lithium breeding blankets

- Need of Tritium production - Neutronic objectives - The Frascati experiment - Measurements of Tritium activity

Methodology for the metric restoration of the historical cartography applied to Francisco Coello's cartografic series of the Royal Site of Aranjuez

Hojas Kilométricas (Kilometric Sheets). Specifically, the study focuses on those sheets referring to the city centre and surrounding area of the Royal Site of Aranjuez, a town in the south of the Province of Madrid. The aim of this study is to restore the actual size and measurements of scanned images of the Hojas Kilométricas. This would allow us, among other things, to reestablish both the format and scale of the original plans. To achieve this goal it is necessary to rectify and then georeference these images, i.e. assign them a geographic reference system. This procedure is essential in the overlaying and comparison of the Hojas Kilométricas of the Royal Site with other historical cartography as well as other sources related to the same area from different time periods. Subsequent research would allow us, for example, to reconstruct the time-evolution of the urban area, to spot new construction and to pinpoint the locations of any altered or missing buildings or architectural features. In addition, this would allow us to develop and integrate databases for GIS models applicable to the management of our cultural heritage.

NetCDF based data archiving system applied to ITER Fast Plant System Control prototype

EURATOM/CIEMAT and Technical University of Madrid (UPM) have been involved in the development of a FPSC [1] (Fast Plant System Control) prototype for ITER, based on PXIe (PCI eXtensions for Instrumentation). One of the main focuses of this project has been data acquisition and all the related issues, including scientific data archiving. Additionally, a new data archiving solution has been developed to demonstrate the obtainable performances and possible bottlenecks of scientific data archiving in Fast Plant System Control. The presented system implements a fault tolerant architecture over a GEthernet network where FPSC data are reliably archived on remote, while remaining accessible to be redistributed, within the duration of a pulse. The storing service is supported by a clustering solution to guaranty scalability, so that FPSC management and configuration may be simplified, and a unique view of all archived data provided. All the involved components have been integrated under EPICS [2] (Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System), implementing in each case the necessary extensions, state machines and configuration process variables. The prototyped solution is based on the NetCDF-4 [3] and [4] (Network Common Data Format) file format in order to incorporate important features, such as scientific data models support, huge size files management, platform independent codification, or single-writer/multiple-readers concurrency. In this contribution, a complete description of the above mentioned solution is presented, together with the most relevant results of the tests performed, while focusing in the benefits and limitations of the applied technologies.

Multiobjective optimization applied to structural sizing of low cost university-class microsatellite projects

In recent years, there has been continuing interest in the participation of university research groups in space technology studies by means of their own microsatellites. The involvement in such projects has some inherent challenges, such as limited budget and facilities. Also, due to the fact that the main objective of these projects is for educational purposes, usually there are uncertainties regarding their in orbit mission and scientific payloads at the early phases of the project. On the other hand, there are predetermined limitations for their mass and volume budgets owing to the fact that most of them are launched as an auxiliary payload in which the launch cost is reduced considerably. The satellite structure subsystem is the one which is most affected by the launcher constraints. This can affect different aspects, including dimensions, strength and frequency requirements. In this paper, the main focus is on developing a structural design sizing tool containing not only the primary structures properties as variables but also the system level variables such as payload mass budget and satellite total mass and dimensions. This approach enables the design team to obtain better insight into the design in an extended design envelope. The structural design sizing tool is based on analytical structural design formulas and appropriate assumptions including both static and dynamic models of the satellite. Finally, a Genetic Algorithm (GA) multiobjective optimization is applied to the design space. The result is a Pareto-optimal based on two objectives, minimum satellite total mass and maximum payload mass budget, which gives a useful insight to the design team at the early phases of the design.

Co-evolutionary and Reinforcement Learning Techniques Applied to Computer Go players

The objective of this thesis is model some processes from the nature as evolution and co-evolution, and proposing some techniques that can ensure that these learning process really happens and useful to solve some complex problems as Go game. The Go game is ancient and very complex game with simple rules which still is a challenge for the Artificial Intelligence. This dissertation cover some approaches that were applied to solve this problem, proposing solve this problem using competitive and cooperative co-evolutionary learning methods and other techniques proposed by the author. To study, implement and prove these methods were used some neural networks structures, a framework free available and coded many programs. The techniques proposed were coded by the author, performed many experiments to find the best configuration to ensure that co-evolution is progressing and discussed the results. Using co-evolutionary learning processes can be observed some pathologies which could impact co-evolution progress. In this dissertation is introduced some techniques to solve pathologies as loss of gradients, cycling dynamics and forgetting. According to some authors, one solution to solve these co-evolution pathologies is introduce more diversity in populations that are evolving. In this thesis is proposed some techniques to introduce more diversity and some diversity measurements for neural networks structures to monitor diversity during co-evolution. The genotype diversity evolved were analyzed in terms of its impact to global fitness of the strategies evolved and their generalization. Additionally, it was introduced a memory mechanism in the network neural structures to reinforce some strategies in the genes of the neurons evolved with the intention that some good strategies learned are not forgotten. In this dissertation is presented some works from other authors in which cooperative and competitive co-evolution has been applied. The Go board size used in this thesis was 9x9, but can be easily escalated to more bigger boards.The author believe that programs coded and techniques introduced in this dissertation can be used for other domains.

Mechanical design optimization for multi-finger haptic devices applied to virtual grasping manipulation

This paper describes the design of a modular multi-finger haptic device for virtual object manipulation. Mechanical structures are based on one module per finger and can be scaled up to three fingers. Mechanical configurations for two and three fingers are based on the use of one and two redundant axes, respectively. As demonstrated, redundant axes significantly increase workspace and prevent link collisions, which is their main asset with respect to other multi-finger haptic devices. The location of redundant axes and link dimensions have been optimized in order to guarantee a proper workspace, manipulability, force capability, and inertia for the device. The mechanical haptic device design and a thimble adaptable to different finger sizes have also been developed for virtual object manipulation.

Handmade Task Tracking Applied to Cognitive Rehabilitation

This article presents research focused on tracking manual tasks that are applied in cognitive rehabilitation so as to analyze the movements of patients who suffer from Apraxia and Action Disorganization Syndrome (AADS). This kind of patients find executing Activities of Daily Living (ADL) too difficult due to the loss of memory and capacity to carry out sequential tasks or the impossibility of associating different objects with their functions. This contribution is developed from the work of Universidad Politécnica de Madrid and Technical University of Munich in collaboration with The University of Birmingham. The KinectTM for Windows© device is used for this purpose. The data collected is compared to an ultrasonic motion capture system. The results indicate a moderate to strong correlation between signals. They also verify that KinectTM is very suitable and inexpensive. Moreover, it turns out to be a motion-capture system quite easy to implement for kinematics analysis in ADL.

Diversity and Equitability Ordering Profiles Applied to the Study of Forest Structure

Diversity and Equitability Ordering Profiles Applied to the Study of Forest Structure