Abrupt CO2 experiments as tools for predicting and understanding CMIP5 representative concentration pathway projections

A fast simple climate modelling approach is developed for predicting and helping to understand general circulation model (GCM) simulations. We show that the simple model reproduces the GCM results accurately, for global mean surface air temperature change and global-mean heat uptake projections from 9 GCMs in the fifth coupled model inter-comparison project (CMIP5). This implies that understanding gained from idealised CO2 step experiments is applicable to policy-relevant scenario projections. Our approach is conceptually simple. It works by using the climate response to a CO2 step change taken directly from a GCM experiment. With radiative forcing from non-CO2 constituents obtained by adapting the Forster and Taylor method, we use our method to estimate results for CMIP5 representative concentration pathway (RCP) experiments for cases not run by the GCMs. We estimate differences between pairs of RCPs rather than RCP anomalies relative to the pre-industrial state. This gives better results because it makes greater use of available GCM projections. The GCMs exhibit differences in radiative forcing, which we incorporate in the simple model. We analyse the thus-completed ensemble of RCP projections. The ensemble mean changes between 1986–2005 and 2080–2099 for global temperature (heat uptake) are, for RCP8.5: 3.8 K (2.3 × 1024 J); for RCP6.0: 2.3 K (1.6 × 1024 J); for RCP4.5: 2.0 K (1.6 × 1024 J); for RCP2.6: 1.1 K (1.3 × 1024 J). The relative spread (standard deviation/ensemble mean) for these scenarios is around 0.2 and 0.15 for temperature and heat uptake respectively. We quantify the relative effect of mitigation action, through reduced emissions, via the time-dependent ratios (change in RCPx)/(change in RCP8.5), using changes with respect to pre-industrial conditions. We find that the effects of mitigation on global-mean temperature change and heat uptake are very similar across these different GCMs.

Adjustments in the forcing-feedback framework for understanding climate change

The traditional forcing-feedback framework has provided an indispensable basis for discussing global climate changes. However, as analysis of model behavior has become more detailed, shortcomings and ambiguities in the framework have become more evident and physical effects unaccounted for by the traditional framework have become interesting. In particular, the new concept of adjustments, which are responses to forcings that are not mediated by the global mean temperature, has emerged. This concept, related to the older ones of climate efficacy and stratospheric adjustment, is a more physical way of capturing unique responses to specific forcings. We present a pedagogical review of the adjustment concept, why it is important, and how it can be used. The concept is particularly useful for aerosols, where it helps to organize what has become a complex array of forcing mechanisms. It also helps clarify issues around cloud and hydrological response, transient vs. equilibrium climate change, and geoengineering.

A new understanding of El Niño's impact over East Asia: dominance of the ENSO combination mode

Previous studies have shown that the Indo-Pacific atmospheric response to ENSO comprises two dominant modes of variability: a meridionally quasi-symmetric response (independent from the annual cycle) and an anti-symmetric response (arising from the nonlinear atmospheric interaction between ENSO variability and the annual cycle), referred to as the combination mode (C-Mode). This study demonstrates that the direct El Niño signal over the tropics is confined to the equatorial region and has no significant impact on the atmospheric response over East Asia. The El Niño-associated equatorial anomalies can be expanded towards off-equatorial regions by the C-Mode through ENSO’s interaction with the annual cycle. The C-Mode is the prime driver for the development of an anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western North Pacific (WNP) during the El Niño decay phase, which usually transports more moisture to East Asia and thereby causes more precipitation over southern China. We use an Atmospheric General Circulation Model that well reproduces the WNP anticyclonic anomalies when both El Niño sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies as well as the SST annual cycle are prescribed as boundary conditions. However, no significant WNP anticyclonic circulation anomaly appears during the El Niño decay phase when excluding the SST annual cycle. Our analyses of observational data and model experiments suggest that the annual cycle plays a key role in the East Asian climate anomalies associated with El Niño through their nonlinear atmospheric interaction. Hence, a realistic simulation of the annual cycle is crucial in order to correctly capture the ENSO-associated climate anomalies over East Asia.

Scene understanding for auto-calibration of surveillance cameras

In the last decade, several research results have presented formulations for the auto-calibration problem. Most of these have relied on the evaluation of vanishing points to extract the camera parameters. Normally vanishing points are evaluated using pedestrians or the Manhattan World assumption i.e. it is assumed that the scene is necessarily composed of orthogonal planar surfaces. In this work, we present a robust framework for auto-calibration, with improved results and generalisability for real-life situations. This framework is capable of handling problems such as occlusions and the presence of unexpected objects in the scene. In our tests, we compare our formulation with the state-of-the-art in auto-calibration using pedestrians and Manhattan World-based assumptions. This paper reports on the experiments conducted using publicly available datasets; the results have shown that our formulation represents an improvement over the state-of-the-art.

Understanding hybrid roles: the role of identity processes amongst physicians

Increasing attention has been paid in both public administration and organizational theory to understanding how physicians assume a ‘hybrid’ role as they take onmanagerial responsibilities. Limited theoretical attention has been devoted to the processes involved in negotiating, developing, and maintaining such a role.We draw on identity theory, using a qualitative, five-year longitudinal case study, to explore how hybrid physician–managers in the English National Health Service and the organizations they are situated in achieve this. We highlight the importance of saliency – how central an identity is to an individual’s values and beliefs – in managing new identities.We found three differing responses to taking on a hybrid physician–manager role, with identity emerging as a mitigating factor for negotiating potentially conflicting roles. We discuss the implications for existing theory and practice in the management of public organizations and identify an agenda for further research.

The error of representation: basic understanding

Representation error arises from the inability of the forecast model to accurately simulate the climatology of the truth. We present a rigorous framework for understanding this kind of error of representation. This framework shows that the lack of an inverse in the relationship between the true climatology (true attractor) and the forecast climatology (forecast attractor) leads to the error of representation. A new gain matrix for the data assimilation problem is derived that illustrates the proper approaches one may take to perform Bayesian data assimilation when the observations are of states on one attractor but the forecast model resides on another. This new data assimilation algorithm is the optimal scheme for the situation where the distributions on the true attractor and the forecast attractors are separately Gaussian and there exists a linear map between them. The results of this theory are illustrated in a simple Gaussian multivariate model.

Work Domain Analysis for understanding medication safety in care homes in England: an exploratory study

Medication safety and errors are a major concern in care homes. In addition to the identification of incidents, there is a need for a comprehensive system description to avoid the danger of introducing interventions that have unintended consequences and are therefore unsustainable. The aim of the study was to explore the impact and uniqueness of Work Domain Analysis (WDA) to facilitate an in-depth understanding of medication safety problems within the care home system and identify the potential benefits of WDA to design safety interventions to improve medication safety. A comprehensive, systematic and contextual overview of the care home medication system was developed for the first time. The novel use of the Abstraction Hierarchy (AH) to analyse medication errors revealed the value of the AH to guide a comprehensive analysis of errors and generate system improvement recommendations that took into account the contextual information of the wider system.

Understanding consumer evaluations of personalised nutrition services in terms of the privacy calculus: a qualitative study

Background: Personalised nutrition (PN) may provide major health benefits to consumers. A potential barrier to the uptake of PN is consumers’ reluctance to disclose sensitive information upon which PN is based. This study adopts the privacy calculus to explore how PN service attributes contribute to consumers’ privacy risk and personalisation benefit perceptions. Methods: Sixteen focus groups (n = 124) were held in 8 EU countries and discussed 9 PN services that differed in terms of personal information, communication channel, service provider, advice justification, scope, frequency, and customer lock-in. Transcripts were content analysed. Results: The personal information that underpinned PN contributed to both privacy risk perception and personalisation benefit perception. Disclosing information face-to-face mitigated the perception of privacy risk and amplified the perception of personalisation benefit. PN provided by a qualified expert and justified by scientific evidence increased participants’ value perception. Enhancing convenience, offering regular face-to face support, and employing customer lock-in strategies were perceived as beneficial. Conclusion: This study suggests that to encourage consumer adoption, PN has to account for face-to-face communication, expert advice providers, support, a lifestyle-change focus, and customised offers. The results provide an initial insight into service attributes that influence consumer adoption of PN.

Advances in understanding mineral dust and boundary layer processes over the Sahara from Fennec aircraft observations

The Fennec climate program aims to improve understanding of the Saharan climate system through a synergy of observations and modelling. We present a description of the Fennec airborne observations during 2011 and 2012 over the remote Sahara (Mauritania and Mali) and the advances in the understanding of mineral dust and boundary layer processes they have provided. Aircraft instrumentation aboard the UK FAAM BAe146 and French SAFIRE Falcon 20 is described, with specific focus on instrumentation specially developed and relevant to Saharan meteorology and dust. Flight locations, aims and associated meteorology are described. Examples and applications of aircraft measurements from the Fennec flights are presented, highlighting new scientific results delivered using a synergy of different instruments and aircraft. These include: (1) the first airborne measurement of dust particles sized up to 300 microns and associated dust fluxes in the Saharan atmospheric boundary layer (SABL), (2) dust uplift from the breakdown of the nocturnal low-level jet before becoming visible in SEVIRI satellite imagery, (3) vertical profiles of the unique vertical structure of turbulent fluxes in the SABL, (4) in-situ observations of processes in SABL clouds showing dust acting as CCN and IN at −15 °C, (5) dual-aircraft observations of the SABL dynamics, thermodynamics and composition in the Saharan heat low region (SHL), (6) airborne observations of a dust storm associated with a cold-pool (haboob) issued from deep convection over the Atlas, (7) the first airborne chemical composition measurements of dust in the SHL region with differing composition, sources (determined using Lagrangian backward trajectory calculations) and absorption properties between 2011 and 2012, (8) coincident ozone and dust surface area measurements suggest coarser particles provide a route for ozone depletion, (9) discrepancies between airborne coarse mode size distributions and AERONET sunphotometer retrievals under light dust loadings. These results provide insights into boundary layer and dust processes in the SHL region – a region of substantial global climatic importance.

Beneath a learning management system: understanding the human information interaction in information systems

Studies on learning management systems have largely been technical in nature with an emphasis on the evaluation of the human computer interaction (HCI) processes in using the LMS. This paper reports a study that evaluates the information interaction processes on an eLearning course used in teaching an applied Statistics course. The eLearning course is used as a synonym for information systems. The study explores issues of missing context in stored information in information systems. Using the semiotic framework as a guide, the researchers evaluated an existing eLearning course with the view to proposing a model for designing improved eLearning courses for future eLearning programmes. In this exploratory study, a survey questionnaire is used to collect data from 160 participants on an eLearning course in Statistics in Applied Climatology. The views of the participants are analysed with a focus on only the human information interaction issues. Using the semiotic framework as a guide, syntactic, semantic, pragmatic and social context gaps or problems were identified. The information interactions problems identified include ambiguous instructions, inadequate information, lack of sound, interface design problems among others. These problems affected the quality of new knowledge created by the participants. The researchers thus highlighted the challenges of missing information context when data is stored in an information system. The study concludes by proposing a human information interaction model for improving the information interaction quality issues in the design of eLearning course on learning management platforms and those other information systems.

Assessment for Learning in teaching English to Young Learners: teachers’ understanding, classroom practice and impact on interactions

It has been suggested that Assessment for Learning (AfL) plays a significant role in enhancing teaching and learning in mainstream educational contexts. However, little empirical evidence can support these claims. As AfL has been shown to be enacted predominantly through interactions in primary classes, there is a need to understand if it is appropriate, whether it can be efficiently used in teaching English to Young Learners (TEYL) and how it can facilitate learning in such a context. This emerging research focus gains currency especially in the light of SLA research, which suggests the important role of interactions in foreign language learning. This mixed-method, descriptive and exploratory study aims to investigate how teachers of learners aged 7-11 understand AfL; how they implement it; and the impact that such implementation could have on interactions which occur during lessons. The data were collected through lesson observations, scrutiny of school documents, semi-structured interviews and a focus group interview with teachers. The findings indicate that fitness for purpose guides the implementation of AfL in TEYL classrooms. Significantly, the study has revealed differences in the implementation of AfL between classes of 7-9 and 10-11 year olds within each of the three purposes (setting objectives and expectations; monitoring performance; and checking achievement) identified through the data. Another important finding of this study is the empirical evidence suggesting that the use of AfL could facilitate creating conditions conducive to learning in TEYL classes during collaborative and expert/novice interactions. The findings suggest that teachers’ understanding of AfL is largely aligned with the theoretical frameworks (Black & Wiliam, 2009; Swaffield, 2011) already available. However, they also demonstrate that there are TEYL specific characteristics. This research has important pedagogical implications and indicates a number of areas for further research.

Graceful remedies: understanding grace in the Catholic Church's treatment of clerical child sexual abuse

This article examines advocacy of Catholic restorative justice for clerical child sexual abuse from the standpoint of feminist criminological critiques of the use of restorative mediation in sexual offence cases. In particular, it questions the Catholic invocation of grace and forgiveness of survivors of abuse in light of critical feminist concerns about the exploitation of emotions in restorative practices, especially in regard to sexual and other gender-based offences. In the context of sexual abuse, the Catholic appeal to grace has the potential for turning into an extraordinary demand made of victims not only to rehabilitate offenders and the church in the eyes of the community, but also to work towards the spiritual absolution of the abuser. This unique feature of Catholic-oriented restorative justice raises important concerns in terms of feminist critiques of the risk of abuses of power within mediation, and is also incompatible with orthodox restorative justice theory, which, although it advocates a ‘spiritual’ response to crime, is concerned foremost with the rights, needs and experiences of victims.