The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity

We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the United States. We identify the coincident index by assuming that the coincident variables have a common cycle with the unobserved state of the economy, and that the NBER business cycle dates signify the turning points in the unobserved state. This model allows us to estimate our coincident index as a linear combination of the coincident series. We compare the performance of our index with other currently popular coincident indices of economic activity.

Green logistics: key elements for a well-functioning sustainable logistics system

A growing awareness of the modern society about the direct relationship between a growing global community with increasing total industrial activities on one hand and various environmental problems and a natural limitation of natural resources on the other hand set the base for sustainable or “green” approaches within the supply chain. This paper therefore will look at the issue of “Green Logistics” which seeks to reduce the environmental impact of logistics activities by taking into account functions such as recycling, waste and carbon emission reduction and the use of alternative sources of energy. In order to analyze how these approaches and ideas are being perceived by the system as a whole two models from the area of prospective and scenario planning are being used and described to identify the main drivers and tendencies within the system in order to create feasible hypothesis. Using the URCA/CHIVAS model allows us to identify the driver variables out of a high number of variables that best describe the system “Green Logistics”. Followed by the analysis of the actor’s strategies in the system with the Mactor model it is possible to reduce the complexity of a completely holistic system to a few key drivers that can be analyzed further on. Here the implications of URCA/CHIVAS and Mactor are being used to formulate hypotheses about the perception of Green Logistics and its successful implementation among logistics decision makers by an online survey. This research seeks to demonstrate the usefulness of scenario planning to a highly complex system observing it from all angles and extracting information about the relevant factors of it. The results of this demonstration indicate that there are drivers much beyond the factory walls that need to be considered when implementing successfully a system such as Green Logistics.

A monthly indicator of Brazilian GDP. The Brazilian business cycle and growth cycle

This paper constructs an indicator of Brazilian GDP at the monthly ftequency. The peculiar instability and abrupt changes of regimes in the dynamic behavior of the Brazilian business cycle were explicitly modeled within nonlinear ftameworks. In particular, a Markov switching dynarnic factor model was used to combine several macroeconomic variables that display simultaneous comovements with aggregate economic activity. The model generates as output a monthly indicator of the Brazilian GDP and real time probabilities of the current phase of the Brazilian business cycle. The monthly indicator shows a remarkable historical conformity with cyclical movements of GDP. In addition, the estimated filtered probabilities predict ali recessions in sample and out-of-sample. The ability of the indicator in linear forecasting growth rates of GDP is also examined. The estimated indicator displays a better in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance in forecasting growth rates of real GDP, compared to a linear autoregressive model for GDP. These results suggest that the estimated monthly indicator can be used to forecast GDP and to monitor the state of the Brazilian economy in real time.

Mitigating high ‘equity capital’ risk exposure to ‘small cap’ sector in India: analysing ‘key factors of success’ for ‘Institutional Investors’ whilst Investing in small cap sector in India

This paper deals with the subject of mitigating high ‘Equity Capital’ Risk Exposure to ‘Small Cap’ Sector in India. Institutional investors in India are prone to be risk averse when it comes to investing in the small cap sector in India as they find the companies risky and volatile. This paper will help analyse ‘Key Factors of success’ for ‘Institutional Investors’ whilst investing in Small Cap sector in India as some of these Indian small cap stocks offer handsome returns despite economic downturn. This paper has been harnessed carefully under the influence of expert investors, which includes Benjamin Graham (Security Analysis); Warren Buffet; Philip Fisher (Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits); and Aswath Damodaran.

Confiança na gestão de equipes de alto desempenho da indústria farmacêutica

Na indústria farmacêutica (IF) são fundamentais as relações de confiança nas equipes de trabalho em todos os níveis. Há um forte impacto das mudanças, e da consequente incerteza, na confiança entre as equipes e sua motivação. Na produção acadêmica recente, as relações entre confiança e desempenho são exploradas e, particularmente, temos os resultados da primeira pesquisa feita no Brasil para mensurar os níveis de confiança interpessoal, indicadores de confiança e comprometimento dos colaboradores dentro de grandes empresas privadas. As empresas estudadas, e comparadas pelo Prof. Zanini, foram representantes da “nova” e “velha” economia, entre as quais os grandes diferenciadores são a gestão do conhecimento e o nível de incerteza decorrente das frequentes mudanças. Estes são pontos que aproximam as empresas da indústria farmacêutica de pesquisa às da “nova” economia segundo a abordagem proposta na pesquisa do Prof. Zanini. As empresas da indústria farmacêutica estarão implementando mudanças importantes em sua forma de conduzir o negócio, principalmente no que toca à comunicação, promoção e gestão das equipes comerciais nos próximos anos e este parece ser um momento particularmente interessante para uma pesquisa como esta. O objetivo deste trabalho foi determinar o nível de similaridade das equipes de propaganda (comerciais) do segmento de produtos biológicos (vacinas) de uma grande empresa multinacional da indústria farmacêutica de pesquisa, com os as equipes de empresas da nova economia. Pretendemos mensurar os níveis de confiança interpessoal, indicadores de confiança e comprometimento dos componentes das equipes comerciais da empresa, com vistas a examinar os efeitos das incertezas institucionais sobre os mesmos. As ferramentas de pesquisa foram: um formulário previamente validado aplicado aos 56 membros da força de vendas de uma área específica da empresa; dados públicos e privados da empresa (que permanecerá identificada como Empresa “J”) e entrevistas em profundidade com os gestores-chave da equipe sob avaliação: gerentes nacionais e distritais da força de vendas. Foi encontrada alguma similaridade entre os índices das empresas da “velha” economia e os da empresa “J”, para a maioria das avaliações. Entretanto, alguma semelhança entre os índices da Empresa “J” e os das empresas da “nova” economia também foi evidenciada, sobretudo na avaliação dos gerentes desta. Isto poderia indicar o impacto de algumas medidas implementadas pela Empresa “J” mais recentemente, que podem ter colaborado na geração de um ambiente de incerteza institucional e instabilidade. A partir da obtenção e comparação destes índices, são propostas considerações sobre as mudanças ocorridas nos contratos relacionais de trabalho dentro da Empresa “J” nos últimos anos e sobre as dinâmicas aparentes nas relações de sua equipe comercial.

Hemolytic activity of alternative complement pathway as an indicator of innate immunity in pacu (Piaractus mesopotamicus)

The objective of this study was to evaluate the methodology to establish the hemolytic activity of alternative complement pathway as an indicator of the innate immunity in Brazilian fish pacu (Piaractus mesopotamicus), in addition to verifying the influence of β-glucan as an immunostimulant. Fish were fed with diets containing 0, 0.1 and 1% β-glucan, during seven days, and then inoculated with Aeromonas hydrophila. Seven days after the challenge, they were bled for serum extraction. The methodology consisted of a kinetic assay that allows calculating the required time for serum proteins of the complement to promote 50% lysis of a rabbit red blood cell suspension. The method developed in mammals was successfully applied for pacu and determined that the hemolytic activity of the proteins of the complement system (alternative pathway) increased after the pathogen challenge, but was not influenced by the β-glucan treatment.

Efeitos do enriquecimento com nutrientes (N e P) em diferentes condições de luz sobre o crescimento do fitoplâncton em um reservatório eutrófico no semi-árido brasileiro

The increasing of pollution in aquatic ecosystems in the last decades has caused an expansion of eutrophication and loss of water quality for human consumption. The increase of frequency and intensity of cyanobacteria blooms have been recognized as a major problem connected to water quality and eutrophication. The knowledge of environmental factors controlling these blooms is a key step towards the management for recovering aquatic ecosystems from eutrophic conditions. Primary productivity in aquatic ecosystems is dependent on light and nutrients availability. In the present work we evaluated the relative importance of the concentration of major nutrients, such as phosphorus and nitrogen, and light for phytoplankton growth in the main water reservoir of Rio Grande do Norte State, named Engenheiro Armando Ribeiro Gonçalves (EARG), which is an eutrophic system, dominated by potentially toxic cyanobacteria populations. Limitation of phytoplankton growth was evaluated through bioassays using differential enrichment of nutrients (N and/or P) under two light conditions (low light and high light) and monthly monitoring of chlorophyll-a and nutrients (total nitrogen and phosphorus) concentrations, and water transparency (Secchi depth) at the pelagic region. Our results confirm that EARG reservoir is an eutrophic system with a low water quality. Results of bioassays on the growth of phytoplankton limitation (N or P) were conflicting with the results predicted by the TN:TP ratios, which indicates that these ratios were not a good indicator of algal growth limitation. Nitrogen was the limiting nutrient, considering both frequency and magnitude. Light and hidrology affected phytoplankton response to nutrient enrichment. The extreme eutrophic conditions of this reservoir, dominated by cyanobacteria blooms, demand urgent managing strategies in order to guarantee the multiple uses for this system, including water supply for human population. Although nitrogen is the limiting nutrient, an effective management program must focus on the reduction of both phosphorus and nitrogen input

Description and key to the fifth-instars of some Cicadas (Hemiptera: Cicadidae) associated with coffee plants in Brazil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Description of new cicada species associated with the coffee plant and an identification key for the species of Fidicinoides (Hemiptera: Cicadidae) from Brazil

The genus Fidicinoides Boulard & Martinelli is characterized by its partially exposed timbal, not totally covered by the meta-scutellar plate as occurs in Fidicina Amyot & Serville, and has an extensive geographic distribution in Central and South America. In this work a new species for the genus is described. Fidicinoides sarutaiensis Santos, Martinelli & Maccagnan sp. n. is a medium-sized cicada, with the collected and studied specimens associated with coffee (Coffee arabica L.), in the municipality of Sarutaia, in the southeast region of São Paulo state. The species F. glauca (Goding, 1925) and F. viridifemur (Walker, 1850) are transferred to Dorisiana. An identification key for the Fidicinoides species of Brazil is also proposed.

Desempenho dos serviços de atenção primária do município de Natal/RN para o diagnóstico e controle da tuberculose

Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the most important health problems being faced worldwide. In Brazil, the responsibility for the actions of to diagnosis and control of this disease was transferred to the municipalities within the Primary Health Care (PHC), aiming at improvement in epidemiological indicators, requiring reorientation of the practice of family health teams and requiring methodologies to analyze the extent to which components of the PHC are being achieved. Thus, this study aims to analyze the performance of primary care services in the city of Natal-RN for the diagnosis and control of TB, from the perspective of health professionals (doctors and nurses). The study is descriptive, cross-sectional and quantitative. Data collection was conducted from March to July 2011 and involved 121 health professionals working in 52 health units (family health unit, basic health unit and mixed units). The instrument is structured based on the Primary Care Assessment Tool (PCAT), validated and adapted to assess attention to TB in Brazil, and includes questions regarding the Structure and Process components of health services. For quantitative analysis, it was constructed indicators, whose response patterns are followed according to the Likert scale between one and five, which meant the degree of preference relation (or agreement) of the claims. Values between 1 and 3 were considered unsatisfactory for the indicator, between 3 and less than 4, regular, and between 4 and 5, satisfactory. With regard to inputs and equipment, the units had satisfactory condition for form (  = 4.26), consultation (  = 4.02) and basic basket (  = 4.24); regular condition to pot (  = 3.56) and unsatisfactory conditions for transportation tickets (  = 1.50) and sputum smear microscopy (  = 2.42) and X-rays (  = 1.07). In relation to actions, there was satisfactory development for those focused on the individual patient. Actions aimed at the collective level, as the search for respiratory symptoms (RS), monitoring of contacts and guidelines for the community ranged from regular to unsatisfactory (  = 3.16 -  = 1.34). With regard to training, 94,2% received training to identify RS. As regards the time for diagnosis, the median time elapsed between the identification of RS and the beginning of treatment it was 22 days. In relation to the difficulties faced by professionals in the diagnosis of TB, 56,2% reported that they are related only to health services, especially for the failure in the rearguard laboratory and in the specialized services reference, the lack of human and material resources and low performing an active search. The professionals perceive the performance of diagnosis and control of TB, permeated with limitations and barriers to organizational and operational character of various sizes, emerging the need for effective coordination of various sectors and key stakeholders of TB care, to adoption of a new intersectoral strategies that aim to increase the responsiveness of the PHC, providing the best performance in service delivery to the user, family and community, and ensuring effective action and resolving the needs of this population group.

Electrical conductivity as an indicator of pea seed aging of stored at different temperatures

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Estimation of fecal production, digesta flow and digestibility in dairy heifers with different indicator

Objetivou-se com este trabalho avaliar a produção fecal por meio do indicador interno, fibra em detergente neutro indigestível (FDNi), e externos, cromo complexado com ácido etilenodiaminotetracético (Cr-EDTA ) e o cloreto de itérbio (YbCl3), além de estimar o fluxo duodenal da matéria seca e os coeficientes de digestibilidades aparentes total, ruminal e pós-ruminal, de diferentes nutrientes. Foram utilizadas oito novilhas mestiças Holandês/Zebu, distribuídas em duplo quadrado latino 4 x 4. Os indicadores Cr-EDTA, YbCl3 e o FDNi não estimaram produção fecal de forma eficiente (p < 0,05), obtendo resultado de 1,64; 1,71 e 2,71 kg dia-1, respectivamente, quando comparado à coleta total de fezes, que obteve resultado de 1,39 kg dia-1. Os valores estimados de fluxo de matéria seca, tanto para a metodologia de único, quanto para de duplo indicador, podem ser considerados biologicamente aceitáveis. Contudo, o valor obtido pela associação Cr-EDTA/YbCl3, utilizada na forma de duplo indicador, foi o mais confiável, pela melhor recuperação dos indicadores externos (Cr-EDTA e YbCl3), que obtiveram médias de 89 e 85%, respectivamente, em comparação ao interno (FDNi), que obteve média 67%. Os coeficientes de digestibilidade ruminal e pós ruminal, estimados pela associação Cr-EDTA/YbCl3, foram considerados melhores, em consequência do valor de fluxo de matéria seca estimado por esta associação.

Medição de desempenho na cadeia de suprimentos da energia eólica: proposta de um conjunto de indicadores de desempenho

Performance measurement in highly competitive markets is a necessary measure for those who aim the top positions. The business performance measurement approach have reached relevant results in the literature, however, a different approach has recently appeared that broadened the perception of competition, where companies do not seek the competition among companies only, but also among supply chains. Brazilian Wind energy supply chain is living a structuring and expanding moment, with the major global players in the industry making investments in the country. This research aims to answer which are the key performance indicators that must be considered by the Brazilian wind energy sector companies, which are part in a broad perspective of supply chain competition. The research was executed in two steps: exploratory (literature review and a field research in the companies) and later a survey was conducted with the Brazilian Wind energy companies workers with the purpose to validate the performance indicators found in the exploratory step. The survey evaluated 40 performance indicators distributed among five major activities: Project prospection, building/execution, operation and maintenance, logistics and transverse processes, which summarize the performance of the entire supply chain, pointing the sinergy and the competitive level of the supply chain. The selected performance indicators reflect the high relevance of the costs dimension in the Brazilian energy companies performance, acting as a key performance indicator, is also indicates the limited performance management integration throughout the Brazilian wind energy supply chain

Description of the female and new records of Triatoma baratai Carcavallo & Jurberg, 2000 (Hemiptera: Heteroptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae) from Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, with a key to the species of the Triatoma matogrossensis subcomplex

Triatoma baratai Carcavallo & Jurberg, 2000, a species similar to Triatoma williami Galvao, Souza & Lima, 1967 and belonging to the T. matogrossensis subcomplex, was described based on a male specimen collected in a sylvatic environment, near a cave, in Bonito county, Bodoquena mountain range, state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. In the present work we describe the female of T. baratai, captured in a chicken house, in Nioaque county, state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. Furthermore, we recorded the occurrence of T. baratai in domiciles and peridomestic environment in another four municipalities (Bodoquena, Bela Vista, Corumba, and Miranda), extending its geographical distribution. Finally, we present a key to the species of the Triatoma matogrossensis subcomplex.