888 resultados para international student mobility cross-section time series model Source country host country


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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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The Box-Cox transformation is a technique mostly utilized to turn the probabilistic distribution of a time series data into approximately normal. And this helps statistical and neural models to perform more accurate forecastings. However, it introduces a bias when the reversion of the transformation is conducted with the predicted data. The statistical methods to perform a bias-free reversion require, necessarily, the assumption of Gaussianity of the transformed data distribution, which is a rare event in real-world time series. So, the aim of this study was to provide an effective method of removing the bias when the reversion of the Box-Cox transformation is executed. Thus, the developed method is based on a focused time lagged feedforward neural network, which does not require any assumption about the transformed data distribution. Therefore, to evaluate the performance of the proposed method, numerical simulations were conducted and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error, the Theil Inequality Index and the Signal-to-Noise ratio of 20-step-ahead forecasts of 40 time series were compared, and the results obtained indicate that the proposed reversion method is valid and justifies new studies. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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The state of Florida as among the two worst invasive species problems in the USA. Besides the sheer numbers of established exotic species in Florida, many present novel difficulties for management, or have other characteristics making effective management extremely challenging. Moreover, initiation of management action requires more than recognition by experts that a potentially harmful species has become established. It also requires the political will along with concomitant resources and appropriate personnel to develop effective methods and apply them. We illustrate various aspects of the situation in Florida with examples of invasive vertebrates, the problems they pose(d), and management approaches to the problems.

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We extend application of our lowest-order perturbative approach (in electron-electron correlation) for analysis of photo-double-ionization (PDI) of He [A.Y. Istomin et al., J. Phys. B 35, L543 (2002)] to excess energies up to 450 eV and to analysis of circular dichroism. We find that account of electron correlation in the final state to first order provides predictions for the triply differential cross section and circular dichroism that are in reasonable agreement with absolute data for excess energies up to 80 eV. For an excess energy of 450 eV, account of electron correlation in both initial and final states is necessary and the predicted triply differential cross sections are in agreement with absolute data only for large mutual ejection angles. We find that at excess energies of a few tens of eV, the PDI is dominated by the "virtual" knock-out mechanism, while the "direct" (on-shell) knock-out process gives only small contributions for large mutual ejection angles. As a result, we conclude that the circular dichroism effect at these energies originates from the nonzero electron Coulomb phase shifts.