Maximum likelihood estimation of higher-order integer-valued autoregressive processes

In this article, we extend the earlier work of Freeland and McCabe [Journal of time Series Analysis (2004) Vol. 25, pp. 701–722] and develop a general framework for maximum likelihood (ML) analysis of higher-order integer-valued autoregressive processes. Our exposition includes the case where the innovation sequence has a Poisson distribution and the thinning is binomial. A recursive representation of the transition probability of the model is proposed. Based on this transition probability, we derive expressions for the score function and the Fisher information matrix, which form the basis for ML estimation and inference. Similar to the results in Freeland and McCabe (2004), we show that the score function and the Fisher information matrix can be neatly represented as conditional expectations. Using the INAR(2) speci?cation with binomial thinning and Poisson innovations, we examine both the asymptotic e?ciency and ?nite sample properties of the ML estimator in relation to the widely used conditional least
squares (CLS) and Yule–Walker (YW) estimators. We conclude that, if the Poisson assumption can be justi?ed, there are substantial gains to be had from using ML especially when the thinning parameters are large.

Macha and the Invention of Myth

This paper provides new literary analyses of two tales associated with Emain Macha, both of which feature a woman called Macha: Noínden Ulad, which purports to tell the origin of the debility that the Ulstermen suffered during the Táin, and the story of Macha Mongrúad, who overthrew her enemies and forced them to construct the fort of Emain Macha. The discussion considers issues of warriorhood, justice and gender, and seeks to disentangle the themes of sovereignty and war in relation to the women called Macha. Two of the four women bearing the name Macha are, in all probability, relatively late innovations, and the primary function of the remaining two figures lies in warfare.

Microarray-based classifiers and prognosis models identify subgroups with distinct clinical outcomes and high risk of AML transformation of myelodysplastic syndrome

The diagnosis of myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) currently relies primarily on the morphologic assessment of the patient's bone marrow and peripheral blood cells. Moreover, prognostic scoring systems rely on observer-dependent assessments of blast percentage and dysplasia. Gene expression profiling could enhance current diagnostic and prognostic systems by providing a set of standardized, objective gene signatures. Within the Microarray Innovations in LEukemia study, a diagnostic classification model was investigated to distinguish the distinct subclasses of pediatric and adult leukemia, as well as MDS. Overall, the accuracy of the diagnostic classification model for subtyping leukemia was approximately 93%, but this was not reflected for the MDS samples giving only approximately 50% accuracy. Discordant samples of MDS were classified either into acute myeloid leukemia (AML) or

A Multicenter Blinded Study to Evaluate KRAS Mutation Testing Methodologies in the Clinical Setting

Evidence that activating mutations of the KRAS oncogene abolish the response to anti-epidermal growth factor receptor therapy has revolutionized the treatment of advanced colorectal cancer. This has resulted in the urgent demand for KRAS mutation testing in the clinical setting to aid choice of therapy. The Am of this study was to evaluate six different KRAS mutation detection methodologies on two series of primary colorectal cancer samples. Two series of 80 frozen and 74 formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue samples were sourced and DNA was extracted at a central site before distribution to seven different testing sites. KRAS mutations in codons 12 and 13 were assessed by using single strand conformation polymorphism analysis, pyrosequencing, high resolution melting analysis, dideoxy sequencing, or the commercially available TIB Molbiol (Berlin, Germany) or DxS Diagnostic innovations (Manchester, UK) kits. in frozen tissue samples, concordance in KRAS status (defined as consensus in at least five assays) was observed in 66/80 (83%) cases. In par-affin tissue, concordance was 46/74 (63%) if all assays were considered or 71/74 (96%) using the five best performing assays. These results demonstrate that a variety of detection methodologies are suitable and provide comparable results for KRAS mutation analysis of clinical samples. (J Mol Diagn 2009, 11:543-552; DOI: 10.2353/jmoldx.2009.090057)

Explaining young mortality

Stochastic modeling of mortality rates focuses on fitting linear models to logarithmically adjusted mortality data from the middle or late ages. Whilst this modeling enables insurers to project mortality rates and hence price mortality products it does not provide good fit for younger aged mortality. Mortality rates below the early 20's are important to model as they give an insight into estimates of the cohort effect for more recent years of birth. It is also important given the cumulative nature of life expectancy to be able to forecast mortality improvements at all ages. When we attempt to fit existing models to a wider age range, 5-89, rather than 20-89 or 50-89, their weaknesses are revealed as the results are not satisfactory. The linear innovations in existing models are not flexible enough to capture the non-linear profile of mortality rates that we see at the lower ages. In this paper we modify an existing 4 factor model of mortality to enable better fitting to a wider age range, and using data from seven developed countries our empirical results show that the proposed model has a better fit to the actual data, is robust, and has good forecasting ability.

Regenerative Medicine and New Labour Life Science Policy: Rhetorics of Success, Narratives of Sustainability and Survival

Advances in stem cell science and tissue engineering are being turned into applications and products through a novel medical paradigm known as regenerative medicine. This paper begins by examining the vulnerabilities and risks encountered by the regenerative medicine industry during a pivotal moment in its scientific infancy: the 2000s. Under the auspices of New Labour, British medical scientists and life science innovation firms associated with regenerative medicine, received demonstrative rhetorical pledges of support, aligned with the publication of a number of government initiated reports presaged by Bioscience 2015: Improving National Health, Increasing National Wealth. The Department of Health and the Department of Trade and Industry (and its successors) held industry consultations to determine the best means by which innovative bioscience cultures might be promoted and sustained in Britain. Bioscience 2015 encapsulates the first chapter of this sustainability narrative. By 2009, the tone of this storyline had changed to one of survivability. In the second part of the paper, we explore the ministerial interpretation of the ‘bioscience discussion cycle’ that embodies this narrative of expectation, using a computer-aided content analysis programme. Our analysis notes that the ministerial interpretation of these reports has continued to place key emphasis upon the distinctive and exceptional characteristics of the life science industries, such as their ability to perpetuate innovations in regenerative medicine and the optimism this portends – even though many of the economic expectations associated with this industry have remained unfulfilled.

Using smart people to form future mobile wireless networks

The concept of a body-to-body network, where smart communicating devices carried or worn by a person are used to form a wireless network with devices situated on other nearby persons. New innovations in this area will see the form factor of smart devices being modified, so that they may be worn on the human body or integrated into clothing, in the process creating a new generation of smart people. Applications of body-to-body networking will extend well beyond the support of cellular and Wi-Fi networks. They will also be used in short-range covert military applications, first responder applications, team sports and used to interconnect body area networks (BAN). Security will be a major issue as routing between multiple nodes will increase the risk of unauthorized access and compromise sensitive data. This will add complexity to the medium access layer (MAC) and network management. Antennas designed to operate in body centric communications systems may be broadly categorized as on- or off-body radiators, according to their radiation pattern characteristics when mounted on the human body.

Electrical methods of controlling bacterial adhesion and biofilm on device surfaces.

This review will summarize the significant body of research within the field of electrical methods of controlling the growth of microorganisms. We examine the progress from early work using current to kill bacteria in static fluids to more realistic treatment scenarios such as flow-through systems designed to imitate the human urinary tract. Additionally, the electrical enhancement of biocide and antibiotic efficacy will be examined alongside recent innovations including the biological applications of acoustic energy systems to prevent bacterial surface adherence. Particular attention will be paid to the electrical engineering aspects of previous work, such as electrode composition, quantitative electrical parameters and the conductive medium used. Scrutiny of published systems from an electrical engineering perspective will help to facilitate improved understanding of the methods, devices and mechanisms that have been effective in controlling bacteria, as well as providing insights and strategies to improve the performance of such systems and develop the next generation of antimicrobial bioelectric materials.

'Mining money': science, legal technologies & working the borderlands of global finance

This paper explores the roles of science and market devices in the commodification of ‘nature’ and the configuration of flows of speculative capital. It focuses on mineral prospecting and the market for shares in ‘junior’ mining companies. In recent years these companies have expanded the reach of their exploration activities overseas, taking advantage of innovations in exploration methodologies and the liberalisation of fiscal and property regimes in ‘emerging’ mineral rich developing countries. Recent literature has explored how the reconfiguration of notions of ‘risk’ has structured the uneven distribution of rents. It is increasingly evident that neoliberal framing of environmental, political, social and economic risks has set in motion overflows that multinational mining capital had not bargained for (e.g. nationalisation, violence and political resistance). However, the role of ‘geological risk’ in animating flows of mining finance is often assumed as a ‘technical’ given. Yet geological knowledge claims, translated locally, designed to travel globally, assemble heterogeneous elements within distanciated regimes of metrology, valuation and commodity production. This paper explores how knowledge of nature is enrolled within systems of property relations, focusing on the genealogy of the knowledge practices that animate contemporary circuits of speculative mining finance. It argues that the financing of mineral prospecting mobilises pragmatic and situated forms of knowledge rather than actuarially driven calculations that promise predictability. A Canadian public enquiry struck in the wake of scandal associated with Bre-X’s prospecting activities in Indonesia is used to glean insights into the ways in which the construction of a system of public warrant to underpin financial speculation is predicated upon particular subjectivities and the outworking of everyday practices and struggles over ‘value’. Reflection on practical investments in processes of standardisation, rituals of verification and systems of accreditation reveal much about how the materiality of things shape the ways in which regional and global financial circuits are integrated, selectively transforming existing social relations and forms of knowledge production.