Emotion and reason in everyday risk perception

Although research has documented the importance of emotion in risk perception, little is knownabout its prevalence in everyday life. Using the Experience Sampling Method, 94 part-timestudents were prompted at random via cellular telephones to report on mood state and threeemotions and to assess risk on thirty occasions during their working hours. The emotions valence, arousal, and dominance were measured using self-assessment manikins (Bradley &Lang, 1994). Hierarchical linear models (HLM) revealed that mood state and emotions explainedsignificant variance in risk perception. In addition, valence and arousal accounted for varianceover and above reason (measured by severity and possibility of risks). Six risks were reassessedin a post-experimental session and found to be lower than their real-time counterparts.The study demonstrates the feasibility and value of collecting representative samples of data withsimple technology. Evidence for the statistical consistency of the HLM estimates is provided inan Appendix.

Hot vs. cold: Sequential responses and preference stability in experimental games

In experiments with two-person sequential games we analyzewhether responses to favorable and unfavorable actions dependon the elicitation procedure. In our hot treatment thesecond player responds to the first player s observed actionwhile in our cold treatment we follow the strategy method and have the second player decide on a contingent action foreach and every possible first player move, without firstobserving this move. Our analysis centers on the degree towhich subjects deviate from the maximization of their pecuniaryrewards, as a response to others actions. Our results show nodifference in behavior between the two treatments. We also findevidence of the stability of subjects preferences with respectto their behavior over time and to the consistency of theirchoices as first and second mover.

Parent perceived quality of life is age-dependent in children with food allergy.

Food allergy in children significantly affects their quality of life. Its impact can be analyzed by quality of life questionnaires. The aim of our study was to validate the French version of disease-specific questionnaires and to evaluate the quality of life in children with IgE-mediated food allergy. Two validated food allergy-specific questionnaires for quality of life, the parent's and children's forms (FAQLQ-PF and FAQLQ-CF), were translated from English to French and submitted to children with food allergy and their parents. Questionnaires were analyzed in terms of emotional impact, food anxiety, and social and food limitations. NCT 01480427. Sixty-two parents of children aged 0-12 yrs answered the FAQLQ-PF, and 32 children aged 8-12 yrs the FAQLQ-CF. Construct validity of both questionnaires was assessed by correlation between the FAQLQs and FAIM (r = 0.85 and 0.84, respectively). Both FAQLQs had good internal consistency (Cronbach's α = 0.748 and 0.67, respectively). Young children (0-3 yrs old) showed better quality of life scores than older children (FAQLQ-PF global score: p = 0.02). Worse scores were also shown among children with previous severe systemic reactions (FAQLQ-PF global score: p = 0.039), the ones with an allergic mother (FAQLQ-PF global score: p = 0.002), or allergic siblings (FAQLQ-PF emotional impact score: p = 0.034), the ones with multiple food allergy (more than 1 food) (FAQLQ-PF anxiety score: p = 0.04) and among the girls (FAQLQ-CF global score: p = 0.031). Older children, the ones with severe systemic reactions, or with mothers or siblings also affected by allergies, as well as girls, and children with multiple food allergies show worse quality of life scores.

Validation of the New Mix Design Process for Cold In-Place Rehabilitation Using Foamed Asphalt, 2007

Asphalt pavement recycling has grown dramatically over the last few years as a viable technology to rehabilitate existing asphalt pavements. Iowa's current Cold In-place Recycling (CIR) practice utilizes a generic recipe specification to define the characteristics of the CIR mixture. As CIR continues to evolve, the desire to place CIR mixture with specific engineering properties requires the use of a mix design process. A new mix design procedure was developed for Cold In-place Recycling using foamed asphalt (CIR-foam) in consideration of its predicted field performance. The new laboratory mix design process was validated against various Reclaimed Asphalt Pavement (RAP) materials to determine its consistency over a wide range of RAP materials available throughout Iowa. The performance tests, which include dynamic modulus test, dynamic creep test and raveling test, were conducted to evaluate the consistency of a new CIR-foam mix design process to ensure reliable mixture performance over a wide range of traffic and climatic conditions. The “lab designed” CIR will allow the pavement designer to take the properties of the CIR into account when determining the overlay thickness.

Aging and the lateralization of oscillatory activities related to external and internal motor preparation

Selection of action may rely on external guidance or be motivated internally, engaging partially distinct cerebral networks. With age, there is an increased allocation of sensorimotor processing resources, accompanied by a reduced differentiation between the two networks of action selection. The present study examines the age effects on the motor-related oscillatory patterns related to the preparation of externally and internally guided movements. Thirty-two older and 30 younger adults underwent three delayed motor tasks with S1 as preparatory and S2 as imperative cue: Full, laterality instructed by S1 (external guidance); Free, laterality freely selected (internal guidance); None, laterality instructed by S2 (no preparation). Electroencephalogram (EEG) was recorded using 64 surface electrodes. Motor-Related Amplitude Asymmetries (MRAA), indexing the lateralization of oscillatory activities, were analyzed within the S1-S2 interval in the mu (9-12 Hz) and low beta (15-20 Hz) motor-related frequency bands. Reaction times to S2 were slower in older than younger subjects, and slower in the Free than in the Full condition in older subjects only. In the Full condition, there were significant mu MRAA in both age groups, and significant low beta MRAA only in older adults. The Free condition was associated with large mu MRAA in younger adults and limited low beta MRAA in older adults. In younger subjects, the lateralization of mu activity in both Full and Free conditions indicated effective external and internal motor preparation. In older subjects, external motor preparation was associated with lateralization of low beta in addition with mu activity, compatible with an increase of motor-related resources. In contrast, absence of mu and limited low beta lateralization in internal motor preparation was concomitant with reaction time slowing and suggested less efficient cerebral processes subtending free movement selection in older adults, indicating reduced capacity for internally driven action with age.

A tractable consideration set structure for network revenue management

Models incorporating more realistic models of customer behavior, as customers choosing from an offerset, have recently become popular in assortment optimization and revenue management. The dynamicprogram for these models is intractable and approximated by a deterministic linear program called theCDLP which has an exponential number of columns. When there are products that are being consideredfor purchase by more than one customer segment, CDLP is difficult to solve since column generationis known to be NP-hard. However, recent research indicates that a formulation based on segments withcuts imposing consistency (SDCP+) is tractable and approximates the CDLP value very closely. In thispaper we investigate the structure of the consideration sets that make the two formulations exactly equal.We show that if the segment consideration sets follow a tree structure, CDLP = SDCP+. We give acounterexample to show that cycles can induce a gap between the CDLP and the SDCP+ relaxation.We derive two classes of valid inequalities called flow and synchronization inequalities to further improve(SDCP+), based on cycles in the consideration set structure. We give a numeric study showing theperformance of these cycle-based cuts.

Rules or consequences? The role of ethical mindsets in moral dynamics

Recent research on the dynamics of moral behavior has documented two contrastingphenomena - moral consistency and moral balancing. Moral balancing refers to thephenomenon whereby behaving (un)ethically decreases the likelihood of doing so againat a later time. Moral consistency describes the opposite pattern - engaging in(un)ethical behavior increases the likelihood of doing so later on. Three studies supportthe hypothesis that individuals' ethical mindset (i.e., outcome-based versus rule-based)moderates the impact of an initial (un)ethical act on the likelihood of behaving ethicallyin a subsequent occasion. More specifically, an outcome-based mindset facilitates moralbalancing and a rule-based mindset facilitates moral consistency.

Consistent solutions in exchange economies: A characterization of the price mechanism

We characterize the Walrasian allocations correspondence by means offour axioms: consistency, replica invariance, individual rationality andPareto optimality. It is shown that for any given class of exchange economiesany solution that satisfies the axioms is a selection from the Walrasianallocations with slack. Preferences are assumed to be smooth, but may besatiated and non--convex. A class of economies is defined as all economieswhose agents' preferences belong to an arbitrary family (finite or infinite)of types. The result can be modified to characterize equal budget Walrasianallocations with slack by replacing individual rationality with individualrationality from equal division. The results are valid also for classes ofeconomies in which core--Walras equivalence does not hold.

The wage effect of an indexation clause: Evidence from Spanish manufacturing firms

An endogenous switching model of ex-ante wage changes under indexed and non-indexed settlements is estimated for the Spanish manufacturing sector using collective bargaining firm data for the 1984-1991 period. The likelihood of indexing the settlement is higher for nationwide unions than for other union groups within the works council and increases with the expected level of inflation. For wage change equations, a common structure for indexed and non-indexed settlements is strongly rejected, showing a source of nominal rigidity. For indexed contracts, the expected ex-ante total inflation coverage is nearly complete. It is also shown that workers pay a significant ex-ante wage change premium (differential) to obtain a cost of living allowance clause. However, the realised contingent compensation exceeds such a premium for all industries. Finally, important spillover effects in wage setting and the decision to index the settlement have been detected.

A general class of adaptative strategies

We exhibit and characterize an entire class of simple adaptive strategies,in the repeated play of a game, having the Hannan-consistency property: In the long-run, the player is guaranteed an average payoff as large as the best-reply payoff to the empirical distribution of play of the otherplayers; i.e., there is no "regret." Smooth fictitious play (Fudenberg and Levine [1995]) and regret-matching (Hart and Mas-Colell [1998]) areparticular cases. The motivation and application of this work come from the study of procedures whose empirical distribution of play is, in thelong-run, (almost) a correlated equilibrium. The basic tool for the analysis is a generalization of Blackwell's [1956a] approachability strategy for games with vector payoffs.

Demonstração dos fluxos de caixa como instrumento de planeamento financeiro e de tomada de decisão

O presente trabalho tem como objectivo evidenciar a importancia da demonstração dos fluxos de caixa como instrumento de planeamento financeiro e de tomada de decisão. As informações fornecida pela demonstração dos fluxos de caixa serão de grande utilidade para a Administração, pois permitem compreender a alocação dos meios financeiros da entidade o que ajudará no planeamento financeiro e na tomada de decisões económico-financeiras. A demonstração dos fluxos de caixa como peça contabilística permite a Administração verificar a consistência dos planos projectados e estimar as exigências financeiras da entidade. O trabalho inclui uma abordagem teórica seguido de um estudo de caso. Na abordagem teórica, fez-se a apresentação das principais teorias e conceitos sobre o tema. O estudo de caso incidiu sobre uma empresa nacional, a Enacol, em que analisou-se a demonstração do fluxo de caixa dos ultimos três anos, bem como os indicadores económicos e financeiros possibilitando a análise da situação financeira da empresa. Foi também utilizada a entrevista a pessoas ligadas a área de contabilidade numa empresa. Os resultados obtidos mostram que a demonstração dos fluxos de caixa é um importante instrumento no planeamento financeiro e na tomada de decisões para a continuidade dos negócios das empresas. This paper aims to highlight the importance of the statement of cash flows as a tool for financial planning and decision making. All the information provided by the statement of cash flows will be very useful for the Administration, because they allow them to understand the allocation of the financial resources of the entity which will be a support in financial planning and decisionmaking in economic and financial areas. Being part of accounting, the statement of cash flows allows the Administration to verify the consistency of the projected plans and estimate the organization financial requirements. The following work includes a theoretical approach followed by a case study. Within the theoretical approach was made a presentation of the main theories and concepts on the subject while the case study focused on a national company, Enacol, in which we analyzed the statement of cash flows for the last three years, as well as the economic and financial indicators enabling the analysis of the financial situation of the company. It was also used an interview used for people connected to a company in the accounting field. Therefore, the results show that the statement of cash flows is an important tool in financial planning and decision making for the continuity of companies businesses.

Some hypothesis tests for the covariance matrix when the dimension is large compared to the sample size

This paper analyzes whether standard covariance matrix tests work whendimensionality is large, and in particular larger than sample size. Inthe latter case, the singularity of the sample covariance matrix makeslikelihood ratio tests degenerate, but other tests based on quadraticforms of sample covariance matrix eigenvalues remain well-defined. Westudy the consistency property and limiting distribution of these testsas dimensionality and sample size go to infinity together, with theirratio converging to a finite non-zero limit. We find that the existingtest for sphericity is robust against high dimensionality, but not thetest for equality of the covariance matrix to a given matrix. For thelatter test, we develop a new correction to the existing test statisticthat makes it robust against high dimensionality.

Physical considerations on discrepancies in target volume delineation.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To compare the delineations and interpretations of target volumes by physicians in different radio-oncology centers. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Eleven Swiss radio-oncology centers delineated volumes according to ICRU 50 recommendations for one prostate and one head and neck case. In order to evaluate the consistency of the volume delineations, the following parameters were determined: 1) the target volumes (GTV, CTV and manually expanded PTV) and their extensions in the three main axes and 2) the correlation of the volume delineated by each pair of centers using the ratio of the intersection to the union (called proximity index). RESULTS: The delineated prostate volume was 105+/-55cm(3) for the CTV and 218+/-44cm(3) for the PTV. The delineated head and neck volume was 46+/-15cm(3) for the GTV, 327+/-154cm(3) for the CTV and 528+/-106cm(3) for the PTV. The mean proximity index for the prostate case was 0.50+/-0.13 for the CTV and 0.57+/-0.11 for the PTV. The proximity index for the head and neck case was 0.45+/-0.09 for the GTV, 0.42+/-0.13 for the CTV and 0.59+/-0.06 for the PTV. CONCLUSIONS: Large discrepancies between all the delineated target volumes were observed. There was an inverse relationship between the CTV volume and the margin between CTV and PTV, leading to less discrepancies in the PTV than is the CTV delineations. There was more spread in the sagittal and frontal planes due to CT pixel anisotropy, which suggests that radiation oncologists should delineate the target volumes not only in the transverse plane, but also in the sagittal and frontal planes to improve the delineation by allowing a consistency check.

The international development of the RGHQoL: a quality of life measure for recurrent genital herpes.

This paper describes the international development and psychometric testing of the Recurrent Genital Herpes Quality of Life Questionnaire (RGHQoL), a condition-specific quality of life (QoL) instrument. The theoretical foundation for the measure is the needs-based model of QoL and the content of the instrument was derived from in-depth qualitative interviews with relevant patients in the UK. Versions of the RGHQoL were required for the UK, USA, Italy, Germany, France and Denmark for use in international clinical trials. The results indicate that the final 20 item measure has good reliability, internal consistency and validity for all language versions. A small responsiveness study in Denmark suggested that the measure is sensitive to changes in QoL associated with the initiation of suppression treatment for recurrent genital herpes (RGH). It is concluded that the RGHQoL is a valuable instrument for inclusion in clinical trials. The psychometric properties of the instrument are such that it may also be used to monitor the progress of individual patients.

Strategic delegation in monetary unions

In monetary unions, monetary policy is typically made by delegates of the member countries. This procedure raises the possibility of strategic delegation - that countries may choose the types of delegates to influence outcomes in their favor. We show that without commitment in monetary policy, strategic delegation arises if and only if three conditions are met: shocks affecting individual countries are not perfectly correlated, risk-sharing across countries is imperfect, and the Phillips Curve is nonlinear. Moreover, inflation rates are inefficiently high. We argue that ways of solving the commitment problem, including the emphasis on price stability in the agreements constituting the European Union are especially valuable when strategic delegation is a problem.