Diverging from the dominant discourse – some implications of conflicting subject understandings in the education of teachers

This paper addresses beginning teachers thinking about the nature and purposes of their subject and the impact of this on their practice. Individual qualitative interviews were undertaken with 11 history teachers at the beginning of their teaching careers. Data was analysed using writing as the method of analysis and revealed that teachers whose thinking was at odds with dominant discourses, for example in the form of a national curriculum, encountered difficulties embracing pedagogies and aspects of the curriculum that do not accord with their own deep-seated beliefs, demonstrating a need for the initial training and professional development of teachers to forefront consideration of subject understandings.

An historical perspective on forecast errors

Using annual observations on industrial production over the last three centuries, and on GDP over a 100-year period, we seek an historical perspective on the forecastability of these UK output measures. The series are dominated by strong upward trends, so we consider various specifications of this, including the local linear trend structural time-series model, which allows the level and slope of the trend to vary. Our results are not unduly sensitive to how the trend in the series is modelled: the average sizes of the forecast errors of all models, and the wide span of prediction intervals, attests to a great deal of uncertainty in the economic environment. It appears that, from an historical perspective, the postwar period has been relatively more forecastable.

A multidimensional comparison of discourse organization in English and Chinese university students' argumentative writing

Three methodological limitations in English-Chinese contrastive rhetoric research have been identified in previous research, namely: the failure to control for the quality of L1 data; an inference approach to interpreting the relationship between L1 and L2 writing; and a focus on national cultural factors in interpreting rhetorical differences. Addressing these limitations, the current study examined the presence or absence and placement of thesis statement and topic sentences in four sets of argumentative texts produced by three groups of university students. We found that Chinese students tended to favour a direct/deductive approach in their English and Chinese writing, while native English writers typically adopted an indirect/inductive approach. This study argues for a dynamic and ecological interpretation of rhetorical practices in different languages and cultures.

Combined use of satellite estimates and rain gauge observations to generate high-quality historical rainfall time series over Ethiopia

Climate data are used in a number of applications including climate risk management and adaptation to climate change. However, the availability of climate data, particularly throughout rural Africa, is very limited. Available weather stations are unevenly distributed and mainly located along main roads in cities and towns. This imposes severe limitations to the availability of climate information and services for the rural community where, arguably, these services are needed most. Weather station data also suffer from gaps in the time series. Satellite proxies, particularly satellite rainfall estimate, have been used as alternatives because of their availability even over remote parts of the world. However, satellite rainfall estimates also suffer from a number of critical shortcomings that include heterogeneous time series, short time period of observation, and poor accuracy particularly at higher temporal and spatial resolutions. An attempt is made here to alleviate these problems by combining station measurements with the complete spatial coverage of satellite rainfall estimates. Rain gauge observations are merged with a locally calibrated version of the TAMSAT satellite rainfall estimates to produce over 30-years (1983-todate) of rainfall estimates over Ethiopia at a spatial resolution of 10 km and a ten-daily time scale. This involves quality control of rain gauge data, generating locally calibrated version of the TAMSAT rainfall estimates, and combining these with rain gauge observations from national station network. The infrared-only satellite rainfall estimates produced using a relatively simple TAMSAT algorithm performed as good as or even better than other satellite rainfall products that use passive microwave inputs and more sophisticated algorithms. There is no substantial difference between the gridded-gauge and combined gauge-satellite products over the test area in Ethiopia having a dense station network; however, the combined product exhibits better quality over parts of the country where stations are sparsely distributed.

Anti-Slavic imagery in German radical nationalist discourse at the turn of the twentieth century: a prelude to Nazi ideology?

By applying methods of cognitive metaphor theory, Jaworska examines metaphorical scenarios employed in the discourse of anti-Slavism, which featured prominently in radical nationalist propaganda in Germany at the turn of the twentieth century. She does so by analysing metaphorical expressions used to refer to the Polish population living in the eastern provinces of Prussia, in the so-called Ostmark. Her article is based on an analysis of a range of pamphlets and newspaper articles written by some of the leading figures of two nationalist organizations: the Pan-German League (Alldeutscher Verband) and the Eastern Marches Society(Ostmarkenverein). The main research questions it addresses are: What kind of metaphoric scenarios were used to depict the Polish minority, and to what extent were the metaphorical patterns of anti-Slavic imagery similar to those employed in the antisemitic propaganda of the Nazi era? Is there a discursive continuity between the radical nationalism of imperial Germany and the National Socialism of the Third Reich at the level of metaphorical scenarios? Ultimately, Jaworska attempts to contribute to a better understanding of the cognitive mechanisms underlying radical and essentially racist attitudes.

An integrated study of urban microclimates in Chongqing, China: historical weather data, transverse measurement and numerical simulation

Chongqing is the largest central-government-controlled municipality in China, which is now under going a rapid urbanization. The question remains open: What are the consequences of such rapid urbanization in Chongqing in terms of urban microclimates? An integrated study comprising three different research approaches is adopted in the present paper. By analyzing the observed annual climate data, an average rising trend of 0.10◦C/decade was found for the annual mean temperature from 1951 to 2010 in Chongqing,indicating a higher degree of urban warming in Chongqing. In addition, two complementary types of field measurements were conducted: fixed weather stations and mobile transverse measurement. Numerical simulations using a house-developed program are able to predict the urban air temperature in Chongqing.The urban heat island intensity in Chongqing is stronger in summer compared to autumn and winter.The maximum urban heat island intensity occurs at around midnight, and can be as high as 2.5◦C. In the day time, an urban cool island exists. Local greenery has a great impact on the local thermal environment.Urban green spaces can reduce urban air temperature and therefore mitigate the urban heat island. The cooling effect of an urban river is limited in Chongqing, as both sides of the river are the most developed areas, but the relative humidity is much higher near the river compared with the places far from it.

Gallic war songs (II): Marcus Cicero, Quintus Cicero, and Caesar’s invasion of Britain

This article assembles and examines the evidence for the poetic outputs of Marcus and Quintus Cicero related to Caesar’s invasion of Britain. Following the establishment of a relative chronology of the evidence for their work, it is argued that Quintus Cicero most likely produced a fabula praetexta (not an epic poem, as commonly assumed). His brother, in turn, wrote an epic, based on Quintus’ eye-witness reports. Careful analysis of the ancient discourse about this piece reveals insights in Cicero’s poetic workshop and the creation of ‘archival truth’ through narrativising historical events in epic poetry. Finally, a case is made for greater attention to financial affairs between Caesar and the Ciceros that happen to coincide with the drafting process of their respective literary works.

Evaluating adjusted forcing and model spread for historical and future scenarios in the CMIP5 generation of climate models

We utilize energy budget diagnostics from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) to evaluate the models' climate forcing since preindustrial times employing an established regression technique. The climate forcing evaluated this way, termed the adjusted forcing (AF), includes a rapid adjustment term associated with cloud changes and other tropospheric and land-surface changes. We estimate a 2010 total anthropogenic and natural AF from CMIP5 models of 1.9 ± 0.9 W m−2 (5–95% range). The projected AF of the Representative Concentration Pathway simulations are lower than their expected radiative forcing (RF) in 2095 but agree well with efficacy weighted forcings from integrated assessment models. The smaller AF, compared to RF, is likely due to cloud adjustment. Multimodel time series of temperature change and AF from 1850 to 2100 have large intermodel spreads throughout the period. The intermodel spread of temperature change is principally driven by forcing differences in the present day and climate feedback differences in 2095, although forcing differences are still important for model spread at 2095. We find no significant relationship between the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of a model and its 2003 AF, in contrast to that found in older models where higher ECS models generally had less forcing. Given the large present-day model spread, there is no indication of any tendency by modelling groups to adjust their aerosol forcing in order to produce observed trends. Instead, some CMIP5 models have a relatively large positive forcing and overestimate the observed temperature change.

Climate models without pre-industrial volcanic forcing underestimate historical ocean thermal expansion

Episodic explosive volcanic eruptions are a natural part of the climate system but are often omitted from atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) preindustrial spin-up and control experiments. This omission imposes a negative bias on ocean heat uptake in simulations of the historical period. In models of a range of complexity, we find that global-mean sea level rise due to thermal expansion during the last ∼ 150 years is consequently underestimated by 5–30 mm, which is a substantial proportion of the model mean of 50 mm in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 AOGCMs with anthropogenic forcing only, and is therefore important in accounting for 20th century sea level rise. We test and recommend a procedure for removing the bias.

National interest to global reform: patterns of reasoning in British foreign policy discourse

Discussion of the national interest often focuses on how Britain's influence can be maximized, rather than on the goals that influence serves. Yet what gives content to claims about the national interest is the means-ends reasoning which links interests to deeper goals. In ideal-typical terms, this can take two forms. The first, and more common, approach is conservative: it infers national interests and the goals they advance from existing policies and commitments. The second is reformist: it starts by specifying national goals and then asks how they are best advanced under particular conditions. New Labour's foreign policy discourse is notable for its explicit use of a reformist approach. Indeed, Gordon Brown's vision of a 'new global society' not only identifies global reform as a key means of fulfilling national goals, but also thereby extends the concept of the national interest well beyond a narrow concern with national security.

Challenging climate change and migration discourse: different understandings of time-scale and temporality in the Maldives

This article draws on ongoing research in the Maldives to explore differences between elite and non-elite perceptions of climate change and migration. It argues that, in addition to variations in perceptions based on diverse knowledge, priorities and agendas, there exists a more fundamental divergence based upon different understandings of the time-scale of climate change and related ideas of urgency and crisis. Specifically, elites tend to focus on a distant future which is generally abstracted from people’s everyday lived realities, as well as utilise the language of a climate change-induced migration ‘crisis’ in their discussions about impacts in a manner not envisaged by non-elites. The article concludes that, rather than unproblematically mapping global, external facing narratives wholesale onto ordinary people’s lives and experiences, there needs to be more dialogue between elites and non-elites on climate change and migration issues. These perspectives should be integrated more effectively in the development of policy interventions designed to help people adapt to the impacts of global environmental change.

Half-remembered quotations from mostly forgotten speeches: the limits of Labour’s European policy discourse

This article uses discourse analysis to study the continuities in British foreign policy thinking within the Labour party from the 1960s to the present day. Using representative extracts from speeches by Hugh Gaitskell, Harold Wilson, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, it identifies the ideational consis- tencies in the leaders’ attitudes to: Empire; federalism in the EEC/EU; and laying down conditions that have to be met before any constructive engagement with ‘Europe’ can be countenanced. We argue that these consistencies, spanning a 50-year period, exemplify a certain stagnation both within Labour’s European discourses and within British foreign policy thinking more widely. We develop the idea that Labour party thinking has been crucially framed by both small ‘c’ conser- vative and upper-case Conservative ideology, popularised by Winston Churchill in his ‘three circles’ model of British foreign policy.

Teaching and learning Chinese: heritage language classroom discourse in Montreal

This paper explores issues of teaching and learning Chinese as a heritage language in a Chinese heritage language school, the Zhonguo Saturday School, in Montreal, Quebec. With a student population of more than 1000, this school is the largest of the eight Chinese Heritage Language schools in Montreal. Students participating in this study were from seven different classes (grade K, two, three, four, five, six, and special class), their ages ranging from 4 to 13 years. The study took place over a period of two years between 2000 and 2002. Focusing on primary level classroom discourse and drawing on the works of Vygotsky and Bakhtin, I examine how teachers and students use language to communicate, and how their communication mediates teaching, learning and heritage language acquisition. Data sources include classroom observations, interviews with students and their teachers, students’ writings, and video and audio taping of classroom activities. Implications for heritage language development and maintenance are discussed with reference to the findings of this study.