Cardiometabolic risk reduction through lifestyle intervention programs in the Brazilian public health system

Public health strategies to reduce cardiovascular morbidity and mortality should focus on global cardiometabolic risk reduction. The efficacy of lifestyle changes to prevent type 2 diabetes have been demonstrated, but low-cost interventions to reduce cardiometabolic risk in Latin-America have been rarely reported. Our group developed 2 programs to promote health of high-risk individuals attending a primary care center in Brazil. This study compared the effects of two 9-month lifestyle interventions, one based on medical consultations (traditional) and another with 13 multi-professional group sessions in addition to the medical consultations (intensive) on cardiometabolic parameters. Adults were eligible if they had pre-diabetes (according to the American Diabetes Association) and/or metabolic syndrome (International Diabetes Federation criteria for Latin-America). Data were expressed as means and standard deviations or percentages and compared between groups or testing visits. A p-value < 0.05 was considered significant. Results: 180 individuals agreed to participate (35.0% men, mean age 54.7 ± 12.3 years, 86.1% overweight or obese). 83 were allocated to the traditional and 97 to the intensive program. Both interventions reduced body mass index, waist circumference and tumor necrosis factor-α. Only intensive program reduced 2-hour plasma glucose and blood pressure and increased adiponectin values, but HDL-cholesterol increased only in the traditional. Also, responses to programs were better in intensive compared to traditional program in terms of blood pressure and adiponectin improvements. No new case of diabetes in intensive but 3 cases and one myocardial infarction in traditional program were detected. Both programs induced metabolic improvement in the short-term, but if better results in the intensive are due to higher awareness about risk and self-motivation deserves further investigation. In conclusion, these low-cost interventions are able to minimize cardiometabolic risk factors involved in the progression to type 2 diabetes and/or cardiovascular disease.

Suicide rates and trends in São Paulo, Brazil, according to gender, age and demographic aspects: a joinpoint regression analysis

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate suicide rates and trends in São Paulo by sex, age-strata, and methods. METHODS: Data was collected from State registry from 1996 to 2009. Population was estimated using the National Census. We utilized joinpoint regression analysis to explore temporal trends. We also evaluated marital status, ethnicity, birthplace and methods for suicide. RESULTS: In the period analyzed, 6,002 suicides were accrued with a rate of 4.6 per 100,000 (7.5 in men and 2.0 in women); the male-to-female ratio was around 3.7. Trends for men presented a significant decline of 5.3% per year from 1996 to 2002, and a significant increase of 2.5% from 2002 onwards. Women did not present significant changes. For men, the elderly (> 65 years) had a significant reduction of 2.3% per year, while younger men (25-44 years) presented a significant increase of 8.6% from 2004 onwards. Women did not present significant trend changes according to age. Leading suicide methods were hanging and poisoning for men and women, respectively. Other analyses showed an increased suicide risk ratio for singles and foreigners. CONCLUSIONS: Specific epidemiological trends for suicide in the city of São Paulo that warrant further investigation were identified. High-risk groups - such as immigrants - could benefit from targeted strategies of suicide prevention.

Identification of Urban Leprosy Clusters

Overpopulation of urban areas results from constant migrations that cause disordered urban growth, constituting clusters defined as sets of people or activities concentrated in relatively small physical spaces that often involve precarious conditions. Aim. Using residential grouping, the aim was to identify possible clusters of individuals in São José do Rio Preto, Sao Paulo, Brazil, who have or have had leprosy. Methods. A population-based, descriptive, ecological study using the MapInfo and CrimeStat techniques, geoprocessing, and space-time analysis evaluated the location of 425 people treated for leprosy between 1998 and 2010. Clusters were defined as concentrations of at least 8 people with leprosy; a distance of up to 300 meters between residences was adopted. Additionally, the year of starting treatment and the clinical forms of the disease were analyzed. Results. Ninety-eight (23.1%) of 425 geocoded cases were located within one of ten clusters identified in this study, and 129 cases (30.3%) were in the region of a second-order cluster, an area considered of high risk for the disease. Conclusion.This study identified ten clusters of leprosy cases in the city and identified an area of high risk for the appearance of new cases of the disease.

Nuove acquisizioni in termini di insufficienza mitralica: complicanze tromboemboliche dopo chirurgia della valvola mitrale: incidenza, predittori e implicazioni cliniche

Objectives: to define in patients undergoing surgery for mitral regurgitation (MR) the risk of thrombo-embolic complications, particularly ischemic stroke (IS) compared to that in the general population. Background: MR is frequent, occurs mostly in the elderly and guidelines recommend surgery in asymptomatic patients but IS risks are unknown. Methods: in 1344 patients (65±12 years) consecutively operated for MR (procedures: 897 valve repair, MRep; 447 valve replacement, 231 mechanical, MVRm; 216 biological, MVRb), thrombo-embolic complications particularly IS (diagnosed by a neurologist) during follow-up were assessed early (<30 days), mid-term (30-180 days) and long-term (180 days). Results: IS occurred in 130 patients and IS or transient ischemic attack in 201. IS rates were 1.9±0.4% and 2.7±0.5%, at 30 and 180 days and 8.1±0.8% at 5 years. IS rates were lowest after MRep vs. MVRb and MVRm (6.1±0.9, 8±2.1 and 16.1±2.7% at 5 years, p<0.001). Comparison to IS expected rates in the population showed high risk within 30 days of surgery (Risk-ratio 41[26-60], p<0.001 but p>0.10 between procedures) and moderate risk after 30 days (risk-ratio 1.7 overall, p<0.001; 1.3 for MRep, p=0.07; 0.98 for MVRb, p=0.95; 4.8 for MVRm, p<0.001). Beyond 180 days, IS risk declined further and was not different from the general population for MRep (1.2, p=0.30) and for MVRb (0.9, p=0.72). Risk of IS or transient ischemic attack was higher than the general population in all groups up to 180 days. The risk of bleeding beyond 30 days was lowest in MRep vs. MVRb and MVRm (7±1, 14±4 and 16±3% at 10 years, p<0.001). Conclusion: thrombo-embolic complications after MR surgery are both reason for concern and encouragement. IS risk is notable early, irrespective of the procedure performed, but long-term is not higher than in the general population after MRep and MVRb. Preference for MRep should be emphasized and trials aimed at preventing IS should be conducted to reduce the thrombo-embolic and hemorrhagic risk in patients undergoing surgery for MR.

Multiple testing in spatial epidemiology: a Bayesian approach

In this work we aim to propose a new approach for preliminary epidemiological studies on Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) collected in many spatial regions. A preliminary study on SMRs aims to formulate hypotheses to be investigated via individual epidemiological studies that avoid bias carried on by aggregated analyses. Starting from collecting disease counts and calculating expected disease counts by means of reference population disease rates, in each area an SMR is derived as the MLE under the Poisson assumption on each observation. Such estimators have high standard errors in small areas, i.e. where the expected count is low either because of the low population underlying the area or the rarity of the disease under study. Disease mapping models and other techniques for screening disease rates among the map aiming to detect anomalies and possible high-risk areas have been proposed in literature according to the classic and the Bayesian paradigm. Our proposal is approaching this issue by a decision-oriented method, which focus on multiple testing control, without however leaving the preliminary study perspective that an analysis on SMR indicators is asked to. We implement the control of the FDR, a quantity largely used to address multiple comparisons problems in the eld of microarray data analysis but which is not usually employed in disease mapping. Controlling the FDR means providing an estimate of the FDR for a set of rejected null hypotheses. The small areas issue arises diculties in applying traditional methods for FDR estimation, that are usually based only on the p-values knowledge (Benjamini and Hochberg, 1995; Storey, 2003). Tests evaluated by a traditional p-value provide weak power in small areas, where the expected number of disease cases is small. Moreover tests cannot be assumed as independent when spatial correlation between SMRs is expected, neither they are identical distributed when population underlying the map is heterogeneous. The Bayesian paradigm oers a way to overcome the inappropriateness of p-values based methods. Another peculiarity of the present work is to propose a hierarchical full Bayesian model for FDR estimation in testing many null hypothesis of absence of risk.We will use concepts of Bayesian models for disease mapping, referring in particular to the Besag York and Mollié model (1991) often used in practice for its exible prior assumption on the risks distribution across regions. The borrowing of strength between prior and likelihood typical of a hierarchical Bayesian model takes the advantage of evaluating a singular test (i.e. a test in a singular area) by means of all observations in the map under study, rather than just by means of the singular observation. This allows to improve the power test in small areas and addressing more appropriately the spatial correlation issue that suggests that relative risks are closer in spatially contiguous regions. The proposed model aims to estimate the FDR by means of the MCMC estimated posterior probabilities b i's of the null hypothesis (absence of risk) for each area. An estimate of the expected FDR conditional on data (\FDR) can be calculated in any set of b i's relative to areas declared at high-risk (where thenull hypothesis is rejected) by averaging the b i's themselves. The\FDR can be used to provide an easy decision rule for selecting high-risk areas, i.e. selecting as many as possible areas such that the\FDR is non-lower than a prexed value; we call them\FDR based decision (or selection) rules. The sensitivity and specicity of such rule depend on the accuracy of the FDR estimate, the over-estimation of FDR causing a loss of power and the under-estimation of FDR producing a loss of specicity. Moreover, our model has the interesting feature of still being able to provide an estimate of relative risk values as in the Besag York and Mollié model (1991). A simulation study to evaluate the model performance in FDR estimation accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the decision rule, and goodness of estimation of relative risks, was set up. We chose a real map from which we generated several spatial scenarios whose counts of disease vary according to the spatial correlation degree, the size areas, the number of areas where the null hypothesis is true and the risk level in the latter areas. In summarizing simulation results we will always consider the FDR estimation in sets constituted by all b i's selected lower than a threshold t. We will show graphs of the\FDR and the true FDR (known by simulation) plotted against a threshold t to assess the FDR estimation. Varying the threshold we can learn which FDR values can be accurately estimated by the practitioner willing to apply the model (by the closeness between\FDR and true FDR). By plotting the calculated sensitivity and specicity (both known by simulation) vs the\FDR we can check the sensitivity and specicity of the corresponding\FDR based decision rules. For investigating the over-smoothing level of relative risk estimates we will compare box-plots of such estimates in high-risk areas (known by simulation), obtained by both our model and the classic Besag York Mollié model. All the summary tools are worked out for all simulated scenarios (in total 54 scenarios). Results show that FDR is well estimated (in the worst case we get an overestimation, hence a conservative FDR control) in small areas, low risk levels and spatially correlated risks scenarios, that are our primary aims. In such scenarios we have good estimates of the FDR for all values less or equal than 0.10. The sensitivity of\FDR based decision rules is generally low but specicity is high. In such scenario the use of\FDR = 0:05 or\FDR = 0:10 based selection rule can be suggested. In cases where the number of true alternative hypotheses (number of true high-risk areas) is small, also FDR = 0:15 values are well estimated, and \FDR = 0:15 based decision rules gains power maintaining an high specicity. On the other hand, in non-small areas and non-small risk level scenarios the FDR is under-estimated unless for very small values of it (much lower than 0.05); this resulting in a loss of specicity of a\FDR = 0:05 based decision rule. In such scenario\FDR = 0:05 or, even worse,\FDR = 0:1 based decision rules cannot be suggested because the true FDR is actually much higher. As regards the relative risk estimation, our model achieves almost the same results of the classic Besag York Molliè model. For this reason, our model is interesting for its ability to perform both the estimation of relative risk values and the FDR control, except for non-small areas and large risk level scenarios. A case of study is nally presented to show how the method can be used in epidemiology.

Influence of pollination and seed dispersal on the genetic population structure of two Commiphora species in Madagascar and South Africa

Pollination and seed dispersal are important ecological processes for the regeneration of plant populations and both vectors for gene exchange between plant populations. For my thesis, I studied the pollination ecology of the South African tree Commiphora harveyi (Burseraceae) and compared it with C. guillauminii from Madagascar. Both species have low visitation rates and a low number of pollinating insect species, resulting in a low fruit set. While their pollination ecology is very similar, they differ in their seed dispersal with a low seed dispersal rate in the Malagasy and a high seed dispersal rate in the South African species. This should be reflected in a stronger genetic differentiation among populations in the Malagasy than in the South African species. My results, based on AFLP markers, contradict these expectations, the overall differentiation was lower in the Malagasy (FST = 0.05) than in the South African species (FST = 0.16). However, at a smaller spatial scale (below 3 km), the Malagasy species was genetically more strongly differentiated than the South African species, which was reflected by the high inter-population variance within the sample site (C. guillauminii: 72.2 - 85.5 %; C. harveyi: 8.4 - 14.5 %). This strong differentiation could arise from limited gene flow, which was confirmed by spatial autocorrelation analyses. The shape of the autocorrelogram suggested that gene exchange between individuals occurred only up to 3 km in the Malagasy species, whereas up to 30 km in the South African species. These results on the genetic structure correspond to the expectations based on seed dispersal data. Thus, seed dispersal seems to be a key factor for the genetic structure in plant populations on a local scale.

Automatic risk evaluation in elderly patients based on Autonomic Nervous System assessment

Dysfunction of Autonomic Nervous System (ANS) is a typical feature of chronic heart failure and other cardiovascular disease. As a simple non-invasive technology, heart rate variability (HRV) analysis provides reliable information on autonomic modulation of heart rate. The aim of this thesis was to research and develop automatic methods based on ANS assessment for evaluation of risk in cardiac patients. Several features selection and machine learning algorithms have been combined to achieve the goals. Automatic assessment of disease severity in Congestive Heart Failure (CHF) patients: a completely automatic method, based on long-term HRV was proposed in order to automatically assess the severity of CHF, achieving a sensitivity rate of 93% and a specificity rate of 64% in discriminating severe versus mild patients. Automatic identification of hypertensive patients at high risk of vascular events: a completely automatic system was proposed in order to identify hypertensive patients at higher risk to develop vascular events in the 12 months following the electrocardiographic recordings, achieving a sensitivity rate of 71% and a specificity rate of 86% in identifying high-risk subjects among hypertensive patients. Automatic identification of hypertensive patients with history of fall: it was explored whether an automatic identification of fallers among hypertensive patients based on HRV was feasible. The results obtained in this thesis could have implications both in clinical practice and in clinical research. The system has been designed and developed in order to be clinically feasible. Moreover, since 5-minute ECG recording is inexpensive, easy to assess, and non-invasive, future research will focus on the clinical applicability of the system as a screening tool in non-specialized ambulatories, in order to identify high-risk patients to be shortlisted for more complex investigations.

Profili di espressione genetica ed epigenetica ad impatto prognostico e predittivo nel carcinoma squamoso e nelle lesioni potenzialmente maligne del cavo orale

Il carcinoma squamoso orale (CSO) è spesso preceduto da lesioni definite potenzialmente maligne tra cui la leucoplachia e il lichen ma una diagnosi precoce avviene ancora oggi in meno della metà dei casi. Inoltre spesso un paziente trattato per CSO svilupperà secondi tumori. Scopo del lavoro di ricerca è stato: 1) Studiare, mediante metodica di next generation sequencing, lo stato di metilazione di un gruppo di geni a partire da prelievi brushing del cavo orale al fine di identificare CSO o lesioni ad alto rischio di trasformazione maligna. 2) Valurare la relazione esistente tra sovraespressione di p16INK4A e presenza di HPV in 35 pazienti affetti da lichen 3) Valutare la presenza di marker istopatologici predittivi di comparsa di seconde manifestazioni tumorali 4) valutare la relazione clonale tra tumore primitivo e metastasi linfonodale in 8 pazienti mediante 2 metodiche di clonalità differenti: l’analisi di mtDNA e delle mutazioni del gene TP53. I risultati hanno mostrato: 1) i geni ZAP70 e GP1BB hanno presentato un alterato stato di metilazione rispettivamente nel 100% e nel 90,9% di CSO e lesioni ad alto rischio, mentre non sono risultati metilati nei controlli sani; ipotizzando un ruolo come potenziali marcatori per la diagnosi precoce nel CSO. 2)Una sovraespressione di p16INK4A è risultata in 26/35 pazienti affetti da lichen ma HPV-DNA è stato identificato in soli 4 campioni. Nessuna relazione sembra essere tra sovraespressione di p16INK4A e virus HPV. 3)L’invasione perineurale è risultato un marker predittivo della comparsa di recidiva locale e metastasi linfonodale, mentre lo stato dei margini chirurgici si è rilevato un fattore predittivo per la comparsa di secondi tumori primitivi 4) Un totale accordo nei risultati c’è stato tra analisi di mtDNA e analisi di TP53 e le due metodiche hanno identificato la presenza di 4 metastasi linfonodali non clonalmente correlate al tumore primitivo.

Langzeitergebnisse nach Trabekulektomie bei Glaukompatienten

Hintergrund: Die antimetabolitgestützte Trabekulektomie stellt seit längeren denrnGoldstandard bei medikamentös nicht ausreichend therapierbaren Glaukomen dar. Kurz- und mittelfristige Erfolge wurden durch viele Studien bestätigt. Allerdings unterliegen diese sehr unterschiedlichen Erfolgsdefinitionen. Eine strikte Druckkontrolle ≤ 15 mm Hg ohne zusätzliche medikamentöse Therapie erscheint sinnvoll einen risikofreien Therapieerfolg zu bewerten. Es existieren nur wenige Langzeitstudien mit diesem Erfolgskriterium. Die durchgeführte Studie soll einen Eindruck der ophthalmologischen Versorgung trabekulektomierter Patienten an der Universitätsaugenklinik Mainz über einen bewusst langen Zeitraum bieten. Patienten und Methoden: In diese retrospektiven Studie wurden alle Patienten, die aufgrund einer fortgeschrittenen Glaukomerkrankung in den Jahren 1996, 2001 oder 2006 eine Trabekulektomie erhielten, aufgenommen. Von den 723 Augen der 664 Patienten dieser Jahrgänge konnten 447 (61,8%) nachverfolgt werden. Die Zusammensetzung der Patienten war mit anderen Studien vergleichbar. 28% konnten mindestens 7 Jahre, 10% sogar 10 Jahre nachverfolgt werden. Esrnwurde untersucht, ob ein signifikanter Zusammenhang zwischen dem ophthalomologisch-internistischem Entlassstatus (Visus, Tensio, Gesichtsfeld,rnGlaukomtyp, Voroperationen, Medikation, Vorerkrankungen, Art der Operation) undrnder erstrebten Kontrolle des Intraokulardruckes besteht. Ergebnisse: Die mittlere Nachbeobachtungszeit betrug 4,3 ± 3,4 Jahre. Nach 1, 3,rn5, 7 und 10 Jahren wiesen 217 (82,1%) (p < 0,001), 133 (67,7%) (p < 0,001), 70rn(50%) (p < 0,001), 59 (47,7%) (p = 0,056) und 16 (38,1%) (p = 0,06) Augen Intraokulardrücke ≤ 15 mm Hg ohne zusätzliche Antiglaukomatosa auf. Nichtrnstatistisch signifikant waren die 7- und 10-Jahresergebnisse. Mit Hilfe von Antiglaukomatosa waren es insgesamt, 225 (85,1%), 156 (79,7%), 87 (62,5%), 93 (75%) und 23 (54,7%) (alle p < 0,001). Die mediane Überlebenszeit für IOD ≤ 15 mm Hg ohne Medikation betrug 7,4 Jahre ± 5 Monate. Druckobergrenzen von ≤ 18 bzw. 21 mm Hg erfüllten bis zu 20% mehr Patienten. Der mittlere Visus von 0,32 ± 6 Stufen blieb nach einem mittleren postoperativen Abfall auf 0,25 ± 5 Stufen in den Folgeuntersuchungen stabil. Er zeigte ab dem 3-Jahresintervall keine statistisch signifikante Verschlechterung zum präoperativen Visus. 5,8 Jahre ± 80 Tage betrug die mediane Überlebenszeit für ein stabiles Gesichtsfeld. Gesichtsfelddaten, MD und PSD zeigten keine statistisch signifikante Verschlechterung (p > 0,05). Risikofaktoren für ein Scheitern der Operation waren Patientenalter (RR = 1,01, KI: 0,95 - 1,34, p = 0,043), arterielle Hypertonie (RR = 1,87, KI: 1,21-2,9, p = 0,005) und männliches Geschlecht (RR = 1,24; KI: 1,07 – 1,43; p = 0,004). Komplikationen waren passagere okuläre Hypotonien an 85 (19%), Fistulation an 46(10,2%), Aderhautschwellung an 29 (6,4%) –abhebung an 14 (3,1%), retinale Amotio an 9 (2%), hypotone Makulopathie an 5 (1,1%) und Hypertonien an 70 (15,6%) Augen. 150 (33,5%) Augen erhielten einen Folgeeingriff, 117 (26%) eine Phakoemulsifikation, 149 (33%) eine Fadenlockerung, 122 (27%) 5-FU-Injektionen, 42 (9,4%) eine Fadennachlegung, 33 (7,4%) ein Needling, 26 (5,8%) eine Zyklophotokoagulation, 19 (4,3%) eine Re-TE und 9 (2%) sonstige chirurgische Revisionen. Schlussfolgerung: Die Kontrolle des Augeninnendruckes ≤ 15 mm Hg ohne zusätzliche Medikation erreichten viele Patienten über einen langen Nachbeobachtungszeitraum. Die Häufigkeit der Komplikationen oder nötiger Folgeeingriffe war meist niedriger als in vergleichbaren Studien. Selbst Patienten mit hohem Risikoprofil hatten gute Ergebnisse. Aufgrund mangelnder Gesichtsfelddaten fanden sich keine Hinweise auf statistisch relevantes Fortschreiten des Glaukoms zur angestrebten medikationsfreien Druckkontrolle. Weitere Studien für einen Untersuchungszeitraum von 10 Jahren mit gleichen Erfolgskriterien wie in der vorliegenden Arbeit mit genauer Analyse der Gesichtsfelddaten wären wünschenswert, um zu belegen, dass die guten Langzeitergebnisse nach Trabekulektomie an der Universitätsaugenklinik Mainz auch eine Glaukomprogredienz dauerhaft verhindern. Damit stellt die an der Universitätsaugenklinik Mainz durchgeführte antimetabolitgestützte Trabekulektomie und deren postoperative Nachbetreuung an einer repräsentativen Population eine sichere und komplikationsarme Methode dar.

Non Invasive Tools for Early Detection of Autism Spectrum Disorders

Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASDs) describe a set of neurodevelopmental disorders. ASD represents a significant public health problem. Currently, ASDs are not diagnosed before the 2nd year of life but an early identification of ASDs would be crucial as interventions are much more effective than specific therapies starting in later childhood. To this aim, cheap an contact-less automatic approaches recently aroused great clinical interest. Among them, the cry and the movements of the newborn, both involving the central nervous system, are proposed as possible indicators of neurological disorders. This PhD work is a first step towards solving this challenging problem. An integrated system is presented enabling the recording of audio (crying) and video (movements) data of the newborn, their automatic analysis with innovative techniques for the extraction of clinically relevant parameters and their classification with data mining techniques. New robust algorithms were developed for the selection of the voiced parts of the cry signal, the estimation of acoustic parameters based on the wavelet transform and the analysis of the infant’s general movements (GMs) through a new body model for segmentation and 2D reconstruction. In addition to a thorough literature review this thesis presents the state of the art on these topics that shows that no studies exist concerning normative ranges for newborn infant cry in the first 6 months of life nor the correlation between cry and movements. Through the new automatic methods a population of control infants (“low-risk”, LR) was compared to a group of “high-risk” (HR) infants, i.e. siblings of children already diagnosed with ASD. A subset of LR infants clinically diagnosed as newborns with Typical Development (TD) and one affected by ASD were compared. The results show that the selected acoustic parameters allow good differentiation between the two groups. This result provides new perspectives both diagnostic and therapeutic.

Ancient Greek harbours used as geo-archives for palaeotsunami research : case studies from Krane (Cefalonia), Lechaion (Gulf of Corinth) and Kyllini (Peloponnese)

Since historical times, coastal areas throughout the eastern Mediterranean are exposed to tsunami hazard. For many decades the knowledge about palaeotsunamis was solely based on historical accounts. However, results from timeline analyses reveal different characteristics affecting the quality of the dataset (i.e. distribution of data, temporal thinning backward of events, local periodization phenomena) that emphasize the fragmentary character of the historical data. As an increasing number of geo-scientific studies give convincing examples of well dated tsunami signatures not reported in catalogues, the non-existing record is a major problem to palaeotsunami research. While the compilation of historical data allows a first approach in the identification of areas vulnerable to tsunamis, it must not be regarded as reliable for hazard assessment. Considering the increasing economic significance of coastal regions (e.g. for mass tourism) and the constantly growing coastal population, our knowledge on the local, regional and supraregional tsunami hazard along Mediterranean coasts has to be improved. For setting up a reliable tsunami risk assessment and developing risk mitigation strategies, it is of major importance (i) to identify areas under risk and (ii) to estimate the intensity and frequency of potential events. This approach is most promising when based on the analysis of palaeotsunami research seeking to detect areas of high palaeotsunami hazard, to calculate recurrence intervals and to document palaeotsunami destructiveness in terms of wave run-up, inundation and long-term coastal change. Within the past few years, geo-scientific studies on palaeotsunami events provided convincing evidence that throughout the Mediterranean ancient harbours were subject to strong tsunami-related disturbance or destruction. Constructed to protect ships from storm and wave activity, harbours provide especially sheltered and quiescent environments and thus turned out to be valuable geo-archives for tsunamigenic high-energy impacts on coastal areas. Directly exposed to the Hellenic Trench and extensive local fault systems, coastal areas in the Ionian Sea and the Gulf of Corinth hold a considerably high risk for tsunami events, respectively.Geo-scientific and geoarcheaological studies carried out in the environs of the ancient harbours of Krane (Cefalonia Island), Lechaion (Corinth, Gulf of Corinth) and Kyllini (western Peloponnese) comprised on-shore and near-shore vibracoring and subsequent sedimentological, geochemical and microfossil analyses of the recovered sediments. Geophysical methods like electrical resistivity tomography and ground penetrating radar were applied in order to detect subsurface structures and to verify stratigraphical patterns derived from vibracores over long distances. The overall geochronological framework of each study area is based on radiocarbon dating of biogenic material and age determination of diagnostic ceramic fragments. Results presented within this study provide distinct evidence of multiple palaeotsunami landfalls for the investigated areas. Tsunami signatures encountered in the environs of Krane, Lechaion and Kyllini include (i) coarse-grained allochthonous marine sediments intersecting silt-dominated quiescent harbour deposits and/or shallow marine environments, (ii) disturbed microfaunal assemblages and/or (iii) distinct geochemical fingerprints as well as (iv) geo-archaeological destruction layers and (v) extensive units of beachrock-type calcarenitic tsunamites. For Krane, geochronological data yielded termini ad or post quem (maximum ages) for tsunami event generations dated to 4150 ± 60 cal BC, ~ 3200 ± 110 cal BC, ~ 650 ± 110 cal BC, and ~ 930 ± 40 cal AD, respectively. Results for Lechaion suggest that the harbour was hit by strong tsunami impacts in the 8th-6th century BC, the 1st-2nd century AD and in the 6th century AD. At Kyllini, the harbour site was affected by tsunami impact in between the late 7th and early 4th cent. BC and between the 4th and 6th cent. AD. In case of Lechaion and Kyllini, the final destruction of the harbour facilities also seems to be related to the tsunami impact. Comparing the tsunami signals obtained for each study areas with geo-scientific data from palaeotsunami events from other sites indicates that the investigated harbour sites represent excellent geo-archives for supra-regional mega-tsunamis.

Stroke, coronary and peripheral artery disease survey on antithrombotic treatment (START IT)

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: To determine the perception of primary care physicians regarding the risk of subsequent atherothrombotic events in patients with established cardiovascular (CV) disease, and to correlate this perception with documented antithrombotic therapy. METHODS: In a cross-sectional study of the general practice population in Switzerland, 381 primary care physicians screened 127 040 outpatients during 15 consecutive workdays in 2006. Perception of subsequent atherothrombotic events in patients with established CV disease was assessed using a tick box questionnaire allowing choices between low, moderate, high or very high risk. Logistic regression models were used to determine the relationship between risk perception and antithrombotic treatment. RESULTS: Overall, 13 057 patients (10.4%) were identified as having established CV disease and 48.8% of those were estimated to be at high to very high risk for subsequent atherothrombotic events. Estimated higher risk for subsequent atherothrombotic events was associated with a shift from aspirin monotherapy to clopidogrel, vitamin K antagonist or aspirin plus clopidogrel (p <0.001 for trend). Clopidogrel (12.7% vs 6.8%, p <0.001), vitamin K antagonist (24.5% vs 15.6%, p <0.001) or aspirin plus clopidogrel (10.2% vs 4.2%, p <0.001) were prescribed in patients estimated to be at high to very high risk more often than in those at low to moderate risk. CONCLUSIONS: Perception of primary care physicians regarding risk of subsequent atherothrombotic events varies in patients with CV disease, and as a result antithrombotic therapy is altered in patients with anticipated high to very high risk even though robust evidence and clear guidelines are lacking.

Significance of Periodontal Risk Assessment in the recurrence of periodontitis and tooth loss

Aim: To investigate the association of the Periodontal Risk Assessment (PRA) model categories with periodontitis recurrence and tooth loss during supportive periodontal therapy (SPT) and to explore the role of patient compliance. Material and Methods: In a retrospective cohort, PRA was performed for 160 patients after active periodontal therapy (APT) and after 9.5 ± 4.5 years of SPT. The recurrence of periodontitis and tooth loss were analysed according to the patient's risk profile (low, moderate or high) after APT and compliance with SPT. The association of risk factors with tooth loss and recurrence of periodontitis was investigated using logistic regression analysis. Results: In 18.2% of patients with a low-risk profile, in 42.2% of patients with a moderate-risk profile and in 49.2% of patients with a high-risk profile after APT, periodontitis recurred. During SPT, 1.61 ± 2.8 teeth/patient were lost. High-risk profile patients lost significantly more teeth (2.59 ± 3.9) than patients with moderate- (1.02 ± 1.8) or low-risk profiles (1.18 ± 1.9) (Kruskal–Wallis test, p=0.0229). Patients with erratic compliance lost significantly (Kruskal–Wallis test, p=0.0067) more teeth (3.11 ± 4.5) than patients compliant with SPT (1.07 ± 1.6). Conclusions: In multivariate logistic regression analysis, a high-risk patient profile according to the PRA model at the end of APT was associated with recurrence of periodontitis. Another significant factor for recurrence of periodontitis was an SPT duration of more than 10 years.

Preoperative mapping of arterial spinal supply using 3.0-T MR angiography with an intravasal contrast medium and high-spatial-resolution steady-state

Preoperative mapping of the arterial spinal supply prior to thoracoabdominal aortic aneurysm repair is highly relevant because of high risk for postoperative ischemic spinal cord injuries such as paraparesis or paraplegia.

Mortality from road traffic accidents in Switzerland: longitudinal and spatial analyses

Road traffic accidents (RTA) are an important cause of premature death. We examined socio-demographic and geographical determinants of RTA mortality in Switzerland by linking 2000 census data to RTA mortality records 2000-2005 (ICD-10 codes V00-V99). Data from 5.5 million residents aged 18-94 years, 1744 study areas, and 1620 RTA deaths were analyzed, including 978 deaths (60.4%) in motor vehicle occupants, 254 (15.7%) in motorcyclists, 107 (6.6%) in cyclists, and 259 (16.0%) in pedestrians. Weibull survival models and Bayesian methods were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR), and standardized mortality ratios (SMR) across study areas. Adjusted HR comparing women with men ranged from 0.04 (95% CI 0.02-0.07) in motorcyclists to 0.43 (95% CI 0.32-0.56) in pedestrians. There was a u-shaped relationship with age in motor vehicle occupants and motorcyclists. In cyclists and pedestrians, mortality increased after age 55 years. Mortality was higher in individuals with primary education (HR 1.53; 95% CI 1.29-1.81), and higher in single (HR 1.24; 95% CI 1.05-1.46), widowed (HR 1.31; 95% CI 1.05-1.65) and divorced individuals (HR 1.62; 95% CI 1.33-1.97), compared to persons with tertiary education or married persons. The association with education was particularly strong for pedestrians (HR 1.87; 95% CI 1.20-2.91). RTA mortality increased with decreasing population density of study areas for motor vehicle occupants (test for trend p<0.0001) and motorcyclists (p=0.0021) but not for cyclists (p=0.39) or pedestrians (p=0.29). SMR standardized for socio-demographic and geographical variables ranged from 82 to 190. Prevention efforts should aim to reduce inequities across socio-demographic and educational groups, and across geographical areas, with interventions targeted at high-risk groups and areas, and different traffic users, including pedestrians.