Assessing nitrogen dynamics in European ecosystems, integrating measurement and modelling: conclusions

This contribution closes this special issue of Hydrology and Earth System Sciences concerning the assessment of nitrogen dynamics in catchments across Europe within a semi-distributed Integrated Nitrogen model for multiple source assessment in Catchments (INCA). New developments in the understanding of the factors and processes determining the concentrations and loads of nitrogen are outlined. The ability of the INCA model to simulate the hydrological and nitrogen dynamics of different European ecosystems is assessed and the results of the first scenario analyses investigating the impacts of deposition, climatic and land-use change on the nitrogen dynamics are summarised. Consideration is given as to how well the model has performed as a generic too] for describing the nitrogen dynamics of European ecosystems across Arctic, Maritime. Continental and Mediterranean climates, its role in new research initiatives and future research requirements.

MEASUREMENT AND MODELING OF THE TOXICITY OF BINARY MIXTURES IN THE NEMATODE CAENORHABDITIS ELEGANS-A TEST OF INDEPENDENT ACTION

Ecological risk assessments must increasingly consider the effects of chemical mixtures on the environment as anthropogenic pollution continues to grow in complexity. Yet testing every possible mixture combination is impractical and unfeasible; thus, there is an urgent need for models that can accurately predict mixture toxicity from single-compound data. Currently, two models are frequently used to predict mixture toxicity from single-compound data: Concentration addition and independent action (IA). The accuracy of the predictions generated by these models is currently debated and needs to be resolved before their use in risk assessments can be fully justified. The present study addresses this issue by determining whether the IA model adequately described the toxicity of binary mixtures of five pesticides and other environmental contaminants (cadmium, chlorpyrifos, diuron, nickel, and prochloraz) each with dissimilar modes of action on the reproduction of the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans. In three out of 10 cases, the IA model failed to describe mixture toxicity adequately with significant or antagonism being observed. In a further three cases, there was an indication of synergy, antagonism, and effect-level-dependent deviations, respectively, but these were not statistically significant. The extent of the significant deviations that were found varied, but all were such that the predicted percentage effect seen on reproductive output would have been wrong by 18 to 35% (i.e., the effect concentration expected to cause a 50% effect led to an 85% effect). The presence of such a high number and variety of deviations has important implications for the use of existing mixture toxicity models for risk assessments, especially where all or part of the deviation is synergistic.

Assessing nitrogen dynamics in European ecosystems, integrating measurement and modelling: conclusions

This contribution closes this special issue of Hydrology and Earth System Sciences concerning the assessment of nitrogen dynamics in catchments across Europe within a semi-distributed Integrated Nitrogen model for multiple source assessment in Catchments (INCA). New developments in the understanding of the factors and processes determining the concentrations and loads of nitrogen are outlined. The ability of the INCA model to simulate the hydrological and nitrogen dynamics of different European ecosystems is assessed and the results of the first scenario analyses investigating the impacts of deposition, climatic and land-use change on the nitrogen dynamics are summarised. Consideration is given as to how well the model has performed as a generic too] for describing the nitrogen dynamics of European ecosystems across Arctic, Maritime. Continental and Mediterranean climates, its role in new research initiatives and future research requirements.

The effects of difficulty and gain versus loss on vocal physiology and acoustics

To examine the basis of emotional changes to the voice, physiological and electroglottal measures were combined with acoustic speech analysis of 30 men performing a computer task in which they lost or gained points under two levels of difficulty. Predictions of the main effects of difficulty and reward on the voice were not borne out by the data. Instead, vocal changes depended largely on interactions between gain versus loss and difficulty. The rate at which the vocal folds open and close (fundamental frequency; f0) was higher for loss than for gain when difficulty was high, but not when difficulty was low. Electroglottal measures revealed that f0 changes corresponded to shorter glottal open times for the loss conditions. Longer closed and shorter open phases were consistent with raised laryngeal tension in difficult loss conditions. Similarly, skin conductance indicated higher sympathetic arousal in loss than gain conditions, particularly when difficulty was high. The results provide evidence of the physiological basis of affective vocal responses, confirming the utility of measuring physiology and voice in the study of emotion.

In situ atmospheric turbulence measurement using the terrestrial magnetic field - A compass for a radiosonde

A method for in situ detection of atmospheric turbulence has been developed using an inexpensive sensor carried within a conventional meteorological radiosonde. The sensor-a Hall effect magnetometer-was used to monitor the terrestrial magnetic field. Rapid time scale (10 s or less) fluctuations in the magnetic field measurement were related to the motion of the radiosonde, which was strongly influenced by atmospheric turbulence. Comparison with cloud radar measurements showed turbulence in regions where rapid time-scale magnetic fluctuations occurred. Reliable measurements were obtained between the surface and the stratosphere.

Northern hemisphere snow: measurement, modelling and predictability

Northern hemisphere snow water equivalent (SWE) distribution from remote sensing (SSM/I), the ERA40 reanalysis product and the HadCM3 general circulation model are compared. Large differences are seen in the February climatologies, particularly over Siberia. The SSM/I retrieval algorithm may be overestimating SWE in this region, while comparison with independent runoff estimates suggest that HadCM3 is underestimating SWE. Treatment of snow grain size and vegetation parameterizations are concerns with the remotely sensed data. For this reason, ERA40 is used as `truth' for the following experiments. Despite the climatology differences, HadCM3 is able to reproduce the distribution of ERA40 SWE anomalies when assimilating ERA40 anomaly fields of temperature, sea level pressure, atmospheric winds and ocean temperature and salinity. However when forecasts are released from these assimilated initial states, the SWE anomaly distribution diverges rapidly from that of ERA40. No predictability is seen from one season to another. Strong links between European SWE distribution and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are seen, but forecasts of this index by the assimilation scheme are poor. Longer term relationships between SWE and the NAO, and SWE and the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are also investigated in a multi-century run of HadCM3. SWE is impacted by ENSO in the Himalayas and North America, while the NAO affects SWE in North America and Europe. While significant connections with the NAO index were only present in DJF (and to an extent SON), the link between ENSO and February SWE distribution was seen to exist from the previous JJA ENSO index onwards. This represents a long lead time for SWE prediction for hydrological applications such as flood and wildfire forecasting. Further work is required to develop reliable large scale observation-based SWE datasets with which to test these model-derived connections.

Measurement of ionic calcium, pH and soluble divalent cations in milk at high temperature

Dialysis and ultrafiltration were investigated as methods for measuring pH and ionic calcium and partitioning of divalent cations of milk at high temperatures. It was found that ionic calcium, pH, and total soluble divalent cations decreased as temperature increased between 20 and 80°C in both dialysates and ultrafiltration permeates. Between 90 and 110°C, ionic calcium and pH in dialysates continued to decrease as temperature increased, and the relationship between ionic calcium and temperature was linear. The permeabilities of hydrogen and calcium ions through the dialysis tubing were not changed after the tubing was sterilized for 1h at 120°C. There were no significant differences in pH and ionic calcium between dialysates from raw milk and those from a range of heat-treated milks. The effects of calcium chloride addition on pH and ionic calcium were measured in milk at 20°C and in dialysates collected at 110°C. Heat coagulation at 110°C occurred with addition of calcium chloride at 5.4mM, where pH and ionic calcium of the dialysate were 6.00 and 0.43mM, respectively. Corresponding values at 20°C were pH 6.66 and 2.10mM.