This Time is Different: Causes and Consequences of British Banking Instability over the Long Run

This paper addresses three questions: (1) How severe were the episodes of banking instability
experienced by the UK over the past two centuries? (2) What have been the macroeconomic
indicators of UK banking instability? and (3) What have been the consequences of UK banking
instability for the cost of credit? Using a unique dataset of bank share prices from 1830 to 2010
to assess the stability of the UK banking system, we find that banking instability has grown more
severe since the 1970s. We also find that interest rates, inflation, lending growth, and equity
prices are consistent macroeconomic indicators of UK banking instability over the long run.
Furthermore, utilising a unique dataset of corporate-bond yields for the period 1860 to 2010, we
find that there is a significant long-run relationship between banking instability and the creditrisk
premium faced by businesses.

Variationelle Zeitdiskretisierungen höherer Ordnung der Konvektions-Diffusions-Reaktions-Gleichungen in zeitabhängigen Gebieten

Wir betrachten zeitabhängige Konvektions-Diffusions-Reaktions-Gleichungen in zeitabhängi- gen Gebieten, wobei die Bewegung des Gebietsrandes bekannt ist. Die zeitliche Entwicklung des Gebietes wird durch die ALE-Formulierung behandelt, die die Nachteile der klassischen Euler- und Lagrange-Betrachtungsweisen behebt. Die Position des Randes und seine Geschwindigkeit werden dabei so in das Gebietsinnere fortgesetzt, dass starke Gitterdeformationen verhindert werden. Als Zeitdiskretisierungen höherer Ordnung werden stetige Galerkin-Petrov-Verfahren (cGP) und unstetige Galerkin-Verfahren (dG) auf Probleme in zeitabhängigen Gebieten angewendet. Weiterhin werden das C 1 -stetige Galerkin-Petrov-Verfahren und das C 0 -stetige Galerkin- Verfahren vorgestellt. Deren Lösungen lassen sich auch in zeitabhängigen Gebieten durch ein einfaches einheitliches Postprocessing aus der Lösung des cGP-Problems bzw. dG-Problems erhalten. Für Problemstellungen in festen Gebieten und mit zeitlich konstanten Konvektions- und Reaktionstermen werden Stabilitätsresultate sowie optimale Fehlerabschätzungen für die nachbereiteten Lösungen der cGP-Verfahren und der dG-Verfahren angegeben. Für zeitabhängige Konvektions-Diffusions-Reaktions-Gleichungen in zeitabhängigen Gebieten präsentieren wir konservative und nicht-konservative Formulierungen, wobei eine besondere Aufmerksamkeit der Behandlung der Zeitableitung und der Gittergeschwindigkeit gilt. Stabilität und optimale Fehlerschätzungen für die in der Zeit semi-diskretisierten konservativen und nicht-konservativen Formulierungen werden vorgestellt. Abschließend wird das volldiskretisierte Problem betrachtet, wobei eine Finite-Elemente-Methode zur Ortsdiskretisierung der Konvektions-Diffusions-Reaktions-Gleichungen in zeitabhängigen Gebieten im ALE-Rahmen einbezogen wurde. Darüber hinaus wird eine lokale Projektionsstabilisierung (LPS) eingesetzt, um der Konvektionsdominanz Rechnung zu tragen. Weiterhin wird numerisch untersucht, wie sich die Approximation der Gebietsgeschwindigkeit auf die Genauigkeit der Zeitdiskretisierungsverfahren auswirkt.

The Performance Characteristics of a Surface-Modified Cutting Tool

In the past, many papers have been presented which show that the coating of cutting tools often yields decreased wear rates and reduced coefficients of friction. Although different theories are proposed, covering areas such as hardness theory, diffusion barrier theory, thermal barrier theory, and reduced friction theory, most have not dealt with the question of how and why the coating of tool substrates with hard materials such as Titanium Nitride (TiN), Titanium Carbide (TiC) and Aluminium Oxide (Al203) transforms the performance and life of cutting tools. This project discusses the complex interrelationship that encompasses the thermal barrier function and the relatively low sliding friction coefficient of TiN on an undulating tool surface, and presents the result of an investigation into the cutting characteristics and performance of EDMed surface-modified carbide cutting tool inserts. The tool inserts were coated with TiN by the physical vapour deposition (PVD) method. PVD coating is also known as Ion-plating which is the general term of the coating method in which the film is created by attracting ionized metal vapour in this the metal was Titanium and ionized gas onto negatively biased substrate surface. Coating by PVD was chosen because it is done at a temperature of not more than 5000C whereas chemical Vapour Deposition CVD process is done at very high temperature of about 8500C and in two stages of heating up the substrates. The high temperatures involved in CVD affects the strength of the (tool) substrates. In this study, comparative cutting tests using TiN-coated control specimens with no EDM surface structures and TiN-coated EDMed tools with a crater-like surface topography were carried out on mild steel grade EN-3. Various cutting speeds were investigated, up to an increase of 40% of the tool manufacturer’s recommended speed. Fifteen minutes of cutting were carried out for each insert at the speeds investigated. Conventional tool inserts normally have a tool life of approximately 15 minutes of cutting. After every five cuts (passes) microscopic pictures of the tool wear profiles were taken, in order to monitor the progressive wear on the rake face and on the flank of the insert. The power load was monitored for each cut taken using an on-board meter on the CNC machine to establish the amount of power needed for each stage of operation. The spindle drive for the machine is an 11 KW/hr motor. Results obtained confirmed the advantages of cutting at all speeds investigated using EDMed coated inserts, in terms of reduced tool wear and low power loads. Moreover, the surface finish on the workpiece was consistently better for the EDMed inserts. The thesis discusses the relevance of the finite element method in the analysis of metal cutting processes, so that metal machinists can design, manufacture and deliver goods (tools) to the market quickly and on time without going through the hassle of trial and error approach for new products. Improvements in manufacturing technologies require better knowledge of modelling metal cutting processes. Technically the use of computational models has a great value in reducing or even eliminating the number of experiments traditionally used for tool design, process selection, machinability evaluation, and chip breakage investigations. In this work, much interest in theoretical and experimental investigations of metal machining were given special attention. Finite element analysis (FEA) was given priority in this study to predict tool wear and coating deformations during machining. Particular attention was devoted to the complicated mechanisms usually associated with metal cutting, such as interfacial friction; heat generated due to friction and severe strain in the cutting region, and high strain rates. It is therefore concluded that Roughened contact surface comprising of peaks and valleys coated with hard materials (TiN) provide wear-resisting properties as the coatings get entrapped in the valleys and help reduce friction at chip-tool interface. The contributions to knowledge: a. Relates to a wear-resisting surface structure for application in contact surfaces and structures in metal cutting and forming tools with ability to give wear-resisting surface profile. b. Provide technique for designing tool with roughened surface comprising of peaks and valleys covered in conformal coating with a material such as TiN, TiC etc which is wear-resisting structure with surface roughness profile compose of valleys which entrap residual coating material during wear thereby enabling the entrapped coating material to give improved wear resistance. c. Provide knowledge for increased tool life through wear resistance, hardness and chemical stability at high temperatures because of reduced friction at the tool-chip and work-tool interfaces due to tool coating, which leads to reduced heat generation at the cutting zones. d. Establishes that Undulating surface topographies on cutting tips tend to hold coating materials longer in the valleys, thus giving enhanced protection to the tool and the tool can cut faster by 40% and last 60% longer than conventional tools on the markets today.

Finite element modeling of straightening of thin-walled seamless tubes of austenitic stainless steel

During this thesis work a coupled thermo-mechanical finite element model (FEM) was builtto simulate hot rolling in the blooming mill at Sandvik Materials Technology (SMT) inSandviken. The blooming mill is the first in a long line of processes that continuously or ingotcast ingots are subjected to before becoming finished products. The aim of this thesis work was twofold. The first was to create a parameterized finiteelement (FE) model of the blooming mill. The commercial FE software package MSCMarc/Mentat was used to create this model and the programing language Python was used toparameterize it. Second, two different pass schedules (A and B) were studied and comparedusing the model. The two pass series were evaluated with focus on their ability to healcentreline porosity, i.e. to close voids in the centre of the ingot. This evaluation was made by studying the hydrostatic stress (σm), the von Mises stress (σeq)and the plastic strain (εp) in the centre of the ingot. From these parameters the stress triaxiality(Tx) and the hydrostatic integration parameter (Gm) were calculated for each pass in bothseries using two different transportation times (30 and 150 s) from the furnace. The relationbetween Gm and an analytical parameter (Δ) was also studied. This parameter is the ratiobetween the mean height of the ingot and the contact length between the rolls and the ingot,which is useful as a rule of thumb to determine the homogeneity or penetration of strain for aspecific pass. The pass series designed with fewer passes (B), many with greater reduction, was shown toachieve better void closure theoretically. It was also shown that a temperature gradient, whichis the result of a longer holding time between the furnace and the blooming mill leads toimproved void closure.

Finite element analysis of hot rolling in the blooming mill

During this thesis work a coupled thermo-mechanical finite element model (FEM) was builtto simulate hot rolling in the blooming mill at Sandvik Materials Technology (SMT) inSandviken. The blooming mill is the first in a long line of processes that continuously or ingotcast ingots are subjected to before becoming finished products. The aim of this thesis work was twofold. The first was to create a parameterized finiteelement (FE) model of the blooming mill. The commercial FE software package MSCMarc/Mentat was used to create this model and the programing language Python was used toparameterize it. Second, two different pass schedules (A and B) were studied and comparedusing the model. The two pass series were evaluated with focus on their ability to healcentreline porosity, i.e. to close voids in the centre of the ingot. This evaluation was made by studying the hydrostatic stress (σm), the von Mises stress (σeq)and the plastic strain (εp) in the centre of the ingot. From these parameters the stress triaxiality(Tx) and the hydrostatic integration parameter (Gm) were calculated for each pass in bothseries using two different transportation times (30 and 150 s) from the furnace. The relationbetween Gm and an analytical parameter (Δ) was also studied. This parameter is the ratiobetween the mean height of the ingot and the contact length between the rolls and the ingot,which is useful as a rule of thumb to determine the homogeneity or penetration of strain for aspecific pass. The pass series designed with fewer passes (B), many with greater reduction, was shown toachieve better void closure theoretically. It was also shown that a temperature gradient, whichis the result of a longer holding time between the furnace and the blooming mill leads toimproved void closure.

Examining the Longitudinal Stability of a Dual-Factor Model of Mental Health in Early Elementary School Students

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Discrete-time positive periodic systems with state and control constraints

The aim of this paper is to provide an efficient control design technique for discrete-time positive periodic systems. In particular, stability, positivity and periodic invariance of such systems are studied. Moreover, the concept of periodic invariance with respect to a collection of boxes is introduced and investigated with connection to stability. It is shown how such concept can be used for deriving a stabilizing state-feedback control that maintains the positivity of the closed-loop system and respects states and control signals constraints. In addition, all the proposed results can be efficiently solved in terms of linear programming.

Storage stability of bevacizumab in polycarbonate and polypropylene syringes

Purpose To compare and examine the storage stability of compounded bevacizumab in polycarbonate (PC) and polypropylene (PP) syringes over a 6-month period. PC syringes have been used in a recent clinical study and bevacizumab stability has not been reported for this type of syringe. Methods Repackaged bevacizumab was obtained from Moorfields Pharmaceuticals in polycarbonate (PC) and polypropylene (PP) syringes. Bevacizumab from the stored syringes was analysed at monthly time points for a 6-month period and compared with bevacizumab from a freshly opened vial at each time point. SDS-PAGE electrophoresis and size-exclusion chromatography (SEC) was used to observe aggregation and degradation. Dynamic light scattering (DLS) provided information about the hydrodynamic size and particle size distribution of bevacizumab in solution. VEGF binding and the active concentration of bevacizumab was determined by surface plasmon resonance (SPR) using Biacore. Results SDS-PAGE and SEC analysis did not show any changes in the presence of higher molecular species (HMWS) or degradation products in PC and PP syringes from T0 to T6 compared to bevacizumab sampled from a freshly opened vial. The hydrodynamic diameter of bevacizumab in the PC syringe after six months of storage was not significantly different to bevacizumab taken from a freshly opened vial. Using SPR, the VEGF binding activity of bevacizumab in the PC syringe was comparable with bevacizumab taken from a freshly opened vial. Conclusion No significant difference over a 6-month period was observed in the quality of bevacizumab repackaged into prefilled PC polycarbonate and PP polypropylene syringes when compared to bevacizumab that is supplied from the vial.

Asymptotic Change-Point Analysis of the Dependencies in Time Series

In recent papers, Wied and his coauthors have introduced change-point procedures to detect and estimate structural breaks in the correlation between time series. To prove the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic and stopping time as well as the change-point estimation rate, they use an extended functional Delta method and assume nearly constant expectations and variances of the time series. In this thesis, we allow asymptotically infinitely many structural breaks in the means and variances of the time series. For this setting, we present test statistics and stopping times which are used to determine whether or not the correlation between two time series is and stays constant, respectively. Additionally, we consider estimates for change-points in the correlations. The employed nonparametric statistics depend on the means and variances. These (nuisance) parameters are replaced by estimates in the course of this thesis. We avoid assuming a fixed form of these estimates but rather we use "blackbox" estimates, i.e. we derive results under assumptions that these estimates fulfill. These results are supplement with examples. This thesis is organized in seven sections. In Section 1, we motivate the issue and present the mathematical model. In Section 2, we consider a posteriori and sequential testing procedures, and investigate convergence rates for change-point estimation, always assuming that the means and the variances of the time series are known. In the following sections, the assumptions of known means and variances are relaxed. In Section 3, we present the assumptions for the mean and variance estimates that we will use for the mean in Section 4, for the variance in Section 5, and for both parameters in Section 6. Finally, in Section 7, a simulation study illustrates the finite sample behaviors of some testing procedures and estimates.

A semi-Lagrangian finite volume method for solving viscoelastic flow problems

Recently, there has been considerable interest in solving viscoelastic problems in 3D particularly with the improvement in modern computing power. In many applications the emphasis has been on economical algorithms which can cope with the extra complexity that the third dimension brings. Storage and computer time are of the essence. The advantage of the finite volume formulation is that a large amount of memory space is not required. Iterative methods rather than direct methods can be used to solve the resulting linear systems efficiently.

Dynamic-Data Driven Real-Time Identification for Electric Power Systems

Power system engineers face a double challenge: to operate electric power systems within narrow stability and security margins, and to maintain high reliability. There is an acute need to better understand the dynamic nature of power systems in order to be prepared for critical situations as they arise. Innovative measurement tools, such as phasor measurement units, can capture not only the slow variation of the voltages and currents but also the underlying oscillations in a power system. Such dynamic data accessibility provides us a strong motivation and a useful tool to explore dynamic-data driven applications in power systems. To fulfill this goal, this dissertation focuses on the following three areas: Developing accurate dynamic load models and updating variable parameters based on the measurement data, applying advanced nonlinear filtering concepts and technologies to real-time identification of power system models, and addressing computational issues by implementing the balanced truncation method. By obtaining more realistic system models, together with timely updated parameters and stochastic influence consideration, we can have an accurate portrait of the ongoing phenomena in an electrical power system. Hence we can further improve state estimation, stability analysis and real-time operation.

Assessing the influence of abiotic factors and leaf-level properties on the stability of growing-season canopy greenness in a deciduous forest

Maps depicting spatial pattern in the stability of summer greenness could advance understanding of how forest ecosystems will respond to global changes such as a longer growing season. Declining summer greenness, or “greendown”, is spectrally related to declining near-infrared reflectance and is observed in most remote sensing time series to begin shortly after peak greenness at the end of spring and extend until the beginning of leaf coloration in autumn,. Understanding spatial patterns in the strength of greendown has recently become possible with the advancement of Landsat phenology products, which show that greendown patterns vary at scales appropriate for linking these patterns to proposed environmental forcing factors. This study tested two non-mutually exclusive hypotheses for how leaf measurements and environmental factors correlate with greendown and decreasing NIR reflectance across sites. At the landscape scale, we used linear regression to test the effects of maximum greenness, elevation, slope, aspect, solar irradiance and canopy rugosity on greendown. Secondly, we used leaf chemical traits and reflectance observations to test the effect of nitrogen availability and intrinsic water use efficiency on leaf-level greendown, and landscape-level greendown measured from Landsat. The study was conducted using Quercus alba canopies across 21 sites of an eastern deciduous forest in North America between June and August 2014. Our linear model explained greendown variance with an R2=0.47 with maximum greenness as the greatest model effect. Subsequent models excluding one model effect revealed elevation and aspect were the two topographic factors that explained the greatest amount of greendown variance. Regression results also demonstrated important interactions between all three variables, with the greatest interaction showing that aspect had greater influence on greendown at sites with steeper slopes. Leaf-level reflectance was correlated with foliar δ13C (proxy for intrinsic water use efficiency), but foliar δ13C did not translate into correlations with landscape-level variation in greendown from Landsat. Therefore, we conclude that Landsat greendown is primarily indicative of landscape position, with a small effect of canopy structure, and no measureable effect of leaf reflectance. With this understanding of Landsat greendown we can better explain the effects of landscape factors on vegetation reflectance and perhaps on phenology, which would be very useful for studying phenology in the context of global climate change

Improving the stability of an oxime based electrochemical microsensor for organo-phosphate vapor detection

A micro gas sensor has been developed by our group for the detection of organo-phosphate vapors using an aqueous oxime solution. The analyte diffuses from the high flow rate gas stream through a porous membrane to the low flow rate aqueous phase. It reacts with the oxime PBO (1-Phenyl-1,2,3,-butanetrione 2-oxime) to produce cyanide ions, which are then detected electrochemically from the change in solution potential. Previous work on this oxime based electrochemistry indicated that the optimal buffer pH for the aqueous solution was approximately 10. A basic environment is needed for the oxime anion to form and the detection reaction to take place. At this specific pH, the potential response of the sensor to an analyte (such as acetic anhydride) is maximized. However, sensor response slowly decreases as the aqueous oxime solution ages, by as much as 80% in first 24 hours. The decrease in sensor response is due to cyanide which is produced during the oxime degradation process, as evidenced by the cyanide selective electrode. Solid phase micro-extraction carried out on the oxime solution found several other possible degradation products, including acetic acid, N-hydroxy benzamide, benzoic acid, benzoyl cyanide, 1-Phenyl 1,3-butadione, 2-isonitrosoacetophenone and an imine derived from the oxime. It was concluded that degradation occurred through nucleophilic attack by a hydroxide or oxime anion to produce cyanide, as well as a nitrogen atom rearrangement similar to Beckmann rearrangement. The stability of the oxime in organic solvents is most likely due to the lack of water, and specifically hydroxide ions. The reaction between oxime and organo-phosphate to produce cyanide ions requires hydroxide ions, and therefore pure organic solvents are not compatible with the current micro-sensor electrochemistry. By combining a concentrated organic oxime solution with the basic aqueous buffer just prior to being used in the detection process, oxime degradation can be avoided while preserving the original electrochemical detection scheme. Based on beaker cell experiments with selective cyanide sensitive electrodes, ethanol was chosen as the best organic solvent due to its stabilizing effect on the oxime, minimal interference with the aqueous electrochemistry, and compatibility with the current microsensor material (PMMA). Further studies showed that ethanol had a small effect on micro-sensor performance by reducing the rate of cyanide production and decreasing the overall response time. To avoid incomplete mixing of the aqueous and organic solutions, they were pre-mixed externally at a 10:1 ratio, respectively. To adapt the microsensor design to allow for mixing to take place within the device, a small serpentine channel component was fabricated with the same dimensions and material as the original sensor. This allowed for seamless integration of the microsensor with the serpentine mixing channel. Mixing in the serpentine microchannel takes place via diffusion. Both detector potential response and diffusional mixing improve with increased liquid residence time, and thus decreased liquid flowrate. Micromixer performance was studies at a 10:1 aqueous buffer to organic solution flow rate ratio, for a total rate of 5.5 μL/min. It was found that the sensor response utilizing the integrated micromixer was nearly identical to the response when the solutions were premixed and fed at the same rate.

Mixture of time-dependent growth models with an application to blue swimmer crab length-frequency data

Understanding how aquatic species grow is fundamental in fisheries because stock assessment often relies on growth dependent statistical models. Length-frequency-based methods become important when more applicable data for growth model estimation are either not available or very expensive. In this article, we develop a new framework for growth estimation from length-frequency data using a generalized von Bertalanffy growth model (VBGM) framework that allows for time-dependent covariates to be incorporated. A finite mixture of normal distributions is used to model the length-frequency cohorts of each month with the means constrained to follow a VBGM. The variances of the finite mixture components are constrained to be a function of mean length, reducing the number of parameters and allowing for an estimate of the variance at any length. To optimize the likelihood, we use a minorization–maximization (MM) algorithm with a Nelder–Mead sub-step. This work was motivated by the decline in catches of the blue swimmer crab (BSC) (Portunus armatus) off the east coast of Queensland, Australia. We test the method with a simulation study and then apply it to the BSC fishery data.

Cone penetration testing to assess slope stability in the 1979 Nice landslide area (Ligurian Margin, SE France)

In the landslide-prone area near the Nice international airport, southeastern France, an interdisciplinary approach is applied to develop realistic lithological/geometrical profiles and geotechnical/strength sub-seafloor models. Such models are indispensable for slope stability assessments using limit equilibrium or finite element methods. Regression analyses, based on the undrained shear strength (su) of intact gassy sediments are used to generate a sub-seafloor strength model based on 37 short dynamic and eight long static piezocone penetration tests, and laboratory experiments on one Calypso piston and 10 gravity cores. Significant strength variations were detected when comparing measurements from the shelf and the shelf break, with a significant drop in su to 5.5 kPa being interpreted as a weak zone at a depth between 6.5 and 8.5 m below seafloor (mbsf). Here, a 10% reduction of the in situ total unit weight compared to the surrounding sediments is found to coincide with coarse-grained layers that turn into a weak zone and detachment plane for former and present-day gravitational, retrogressive slide events, as seen in 2D chirp profiles. The combination of high-resolution chirp profiles and comprehensive geotechnical information allows us to compute enhanced 2D finite element slope stability analysis with undrained sediment response compared to previous 2D numerical and 3D limit equilibrium assessments. Those models suggest that significant portions (detachment planes at 20 m or even 55 mbsf) of the Quaternary delta and slope apron deposits may be mobilized. Given that factors of safety are equal or less than 1 when further considering the effect of free gas, a high risk for a landslide event of considerable size off Nice international airport is identified