Thermal requirements, field mortality and population phenology modelling of Paropsis atomaria Olivier, an emergent pest in subtropical hardwood plantations

Paropsis atomaria is a recently emerged pest of eucalypt plantations in subtropical Australia. Its broad host range of at least 20 eucalypt species and wide geographical distribution provides it the potential to become a serious forestry pest both within Australia and, if accidentally introduced, overseas. Although populations of P. atomaria are genetically similar throughout its range, population dynamics differ between regions. Here, we determine temperature-dependent developmental requirements using beetles sourced from temperate and subtropical zones by calculating lower temperature thresholds, temperature-induced mortality, and day-degree requirements. We combine these data with field mortality estimates of immature life stages to produce a cohort-based model, ParopSys, using DYMEX™ that accurately predicts the timing, duration, and relative abundance of life stages in the field and number of generations in a spring–autumn (September–May) field season. Voltinism was identified as a seasonally plastic trait dependent upon environmental conditions, with two generations observed and predicted in the Australian Capital Territory, and up to four in Queensland. Lower temperature thresholds for development ranged between 4 and 9 °C, and overall development rates did not differ according to beetle origin. Total immature development time (egg–adult) was approximately 769.2 ± S.E. 127.8 DD above a lower temperature threshold of 6.4 ± S.E. 2.6 °C. ParopSys provides a basic tool enabling forest managers to use the number of generations and seasonal fluctuations in abundance of damaging life stages to estimate the pest risk of P. atomaria prior to plantation establishment, and predict the occurrence and duration of damaging life stages in the field. Additionally, by using local climatic data the pest potential of P. atomaria can be estimated to predict the risk of it establishing if accidentally introduced overseas. Improvements to ParopSys’ capability and complexity can be made as more biological data become available.

Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby petrogale penicillata

Numerous expert elicitation methods have been suggested for generalised linear models (GLMs). This paper compares three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression. These methods were trialled on two experts in order to model the habitat suitability of the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The first elicitation approach is a geographically assisted indirect predictive method with a geographic information system (GIS) interface. The second approach is a predictive indirect method which uses an interactive graphical tool. The third method uses a questionnaire to elicit expert knowledge directly about the impact of a habitat variable on the response. Two variables (slope and aspect) are used to examine prior and posterior distributions of the three methods. The results indicate that there are some similarities and dissimilarities between the expert informed priors of the two experts formulated from the different approaches. The choice of elicitation method depends on the statistical knowledge of the expert, their mapping skills, time constraints, accessibility to experts and funding available. This trial reveals that expert knowledge can be important when modelling rare event data, such as threatened species, because experts can provide additional information that may not be represented in the dataset. However care must be taken with the way in which this information is elicited and formulated.

Survey research

This book aims to provide an overview of approaches to assist researchers and practitioners to explore ways of undertaking research in the information literacy field. The first chapter provides an introductory overview of research by Dr Kirsty Williamson (author of Research Methods for Students, Academics and Professionals: Information Management and Systems) and this sets the scene for the rest of the chapters where each author explores the key aspects of a specific method and explains how it may be applied in practice. The methods covered include those representing qualitative, quantitative and mixed methods. Both a chapter on the topical evidence-based practice approach, and another critiquing it, are also included. The final chapter points the way towards potential new directions for the burgeoning field

Visual impairment, postural stability and falls among older adults with glaucoma

Purpose: To investigate the impact of glaucomatous visual impairment on postural sway and falls among older adults.Methods: The sample comprised 72 community-dwelling older adults with open-angle glaucoma, aged 74.0 5.8 years (range 62 to 90 years). Measures of visual function included binocular visual acuity (high-contrast), binocular contrast sensitivity (Pelli- Robson) and binocular visual fields (merged monocular HFA 24-2 SITA-Std). Postural stability was assessed under four conditions: eyes open and closed, on a firm and on a foam surface. Falls were monitored for six months with prospective falls diaries. Regression models, adjusting for age and gender, examined the association between vision measures and postural stability (linear regression) and the number of falls (negative binomial regression). Results: Greater visual field loss was significantly associated with poorer postural stability with eyes open, both on firm (r = 0.34, p < 0.01) and foam (r = 0.45, p < 0.001) surfaces. Eighteen (25 per cent) participants experienced at least one fall: 12 (17 per cent) participants fell only once and six (eight per cent) participants fell two or more times (up to five falls). Visual field loss was significantly associated with falling; the rate of falls doubled for every 10 dB reduction in field sensitivity (rate ratio = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.02–1.13). Importantly, in a model comprising upper and lower field sensitivity, only lower field loss was significantly associated with the number of falls (rate ratio = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.04–1.33). Conclusions: Binocular visual field loss was significantly associated with postural instability and falls among older adults with glaucoma. These findings provide valuable directions for developing falls risk assessment and falls prevention strategies for this population.

Driving performance in persons with hemianopia and quadrantanopia assessed under in-traffic conditions

Purpose: To evaluate the on-road driving performance of persons with homonymous hemianopia or quadrantanopia in comparison to age-matched controls with normal visual fields. Methods: Participants were 22 hemianopes and eight quadrantanopes (mean age 53 years) and 30 persons with normal visual fields (mean age 52 years) and were either current drivers or aiming to resume driving. All participants completed a battery of tests of vision (ETDRS visual acuity, Pelli-Robson letter contrast sensitivity, Humphrey visual fields), cognitive tests (trials A and B, Mini Mental State Examination, Digit Symbol Substitution) and an on-road driving assessment. Driving performance was assessed in a dual-brake vehicle with safety monitored by a certified driving rehabilitation specialist. Backseat evaluators masked to the clinical characteristics of participants independently rated driving performance along a 22.7 kilometre route involving urban and interstate driving. Results: Seventy-three per cent of the hemianopes, 88 per cent of quadrantanopes and all of the drivers with normal fields received safe driving ratings. Those hemianopic and quadrantanopic drivers rated as unsafe tended to have problems with maintaining appropriate lane position, steering steadiness and gap judgment compared to controls. Unsafe driving was associated with slower visual processing speed and impairments in contrast sensitivity, visual field sensitivity and executive function. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that some drivers with hemianopia or quadrantanopia are capable of safe driving performance, when compared to those of the same age with normal visual fields. This finding has important implications for the assessment of fitness to drive in this population.

Effect of optical aberrations on the colour appearance of small lights

Purpose: Small red lights (one minute of arc or less) change colour appearance with positive defocus. We investigated the influence of longitudinal chromatic aberration and monochromatic aberrations on the colour appearance of small narrow band lights. Methods: Seven cyclopleged, trichromatic observers viewed a small light (one minute of arc, λmax = 510, 532, 550, 589, 620, 628 nm, approximately 19 per cent Weber contrast) centred within a black annulus (4.5 minutes of arc) and surrounded by a uniform white field (2,170 cd/m2). Pupil size was four millimetres. An optical trombone varied focus. Longitudinal chromatic aberration was controlled with a two component Powell achromatising lens that neutralises the eye’s chromatic aberration; a doublet that doubles and a triplet that reverses the eye’s chromatic aberration. Astigmatism and higher order monochromatic aberrations were corrected using adaptive optics. Results: Observers reported a change in appearance of the small red light (628 nm) without the Powell lens at +0.49 ± 0.21 D defocus and with the doublet at +0.62 ± 0.16 D. Appearance did not alter with the Powell lens, and five of seven observers reported the phenomenon with the triplet for negative defocus (-0.80 ± 0.47 D). Correction of aberrations did not significantly affect the magnitude at which the appearance of the red light changed (+0.44 ± 0.18 D without correction; +0.46 ± 0.16 D with correction). The change in colour appearance with defocus extended to other wavelengths (λmax = 510 to 620 nm), with directions of effects being reversed for short wavelengths relative to long wavelengths. Conclusions: Longitudinal chromatic aberrations but not monochromatic aberrations are involved in changing the appearance of small lights with defocus.

Spontaneous pacing during overground hill running

Purpose: To investigate speed regulation during overground running on undulating terrain. Methods: Following an initial laboratory session to calculate physiological thresholds, eight experienced runners completed a spontaneously paced time trial over 3 laps of an outdoor course involving uphill, downhill and level sections. A portable gas analyser, GPS receiver and activity monitor were used to collect physiological, speed and stride frequency data. Results: Participants ran 23% slower on uphills and 13.8% faster on downhills compared with level sections. Speeds on level sections were significantly different for 78.4 ± 7.0 seconds following an uphill and 23.6 ± 2.2 seconds following a downhill. Speed changes were primarily regulated by stride length which was 20.5% shorter uphill and 16.2% longer downhill, while stride frequency was relatively stable. Oxygen consumption averaged 100.4% of runner’s individual ventilatory thresholds on uphills, 78.9% on downhills and 89.3% on level sections. 89% of group level speed was predicted using a modified gradient factor. Individuals adopted distinct pacing strategies, both across laps and as a function of gradient. Conclusions: Speed was best predicted using a weighted factor to account for prior and current gradients. Oxygen consumption (VO2) limited runner’s speeds only on uphill sections, and was maintained in line with individual ventilatory thresholds. Running speed showed larger individual variation on downhill sections, while speed on the level was systematically influenced by the preceding gradient. Runners who varied their pace more as a function of gradient showed a more consistent level of oxygen consumption. These results suggest that optimising time on the level sections after hills offers the greatest potential to minimise overall time when running over undulating terrain.

Head and eye movements and lane keeping in drivers with hemianopia and quadrantanopia compared to controls

Purpose: To compare the eye and head movements and lane-keeping of drivers with hemianopia and quadrantanopia with that of age-matched controls when driving under real world conditions. Methods: Participants included 22 hemianopes and 8 quadrantanopes (M age 53 yrs) and 30 persons with normal visual fields (M age 52 yrs) who were ≥ 6 months from the brain injury date and either a current driver or aiming to resume driving. All participants drove an instrumented dual-brake vehicle along a 14-mile route in traffic that included non-interstate city driving and interstate driving. Driving performance was scored using a standardised assessment system by two “backseat” raters and the Vigil Vanguard system which provides objective measures of speed, braking and acceleration, cornering, and video-based footage from which eye and head movements and lane-keeping can be derived. Results: As compared to drivers with normal visual fields, drivers with hemianopia or quadrantanopia on average were significantly more likely to drive slower, to exhibit less excessive cornering forces or acceleration, and to execute more shoulder movements off the seat. Those hemianopic and quadrantanopic drivers rated as safe to drive by the backseat evaluator made significantly more excursive eye movements, exhibited more stable lane positioning, less sudden braking events and drove at higher speeds than those rated as unsafe, while there was no difference between safe and unsafe drivers in head movements. Conclusions: Persons with hemianopic and quadrantanopic field defects rated as safe to drive have different driving characteristics compared to those rated as unsafe when assessed using objective measures of driving performance.

A comparison of different methods to determine diffusion length in dye-sensitized solar cells

A new steady state method for determination of the electron diffusion length in dye-sensitized solar cells (DSCs) is described and illustrated with data obtained using cells containing three different types of electrolyte. The method is based on using near-IR absorbance methods to establish pairs of illumination intensity for which the total number of trapped electrons is the same at open circuit (where all electrons are lost by interfacial electron transfer) as at short circuit (where the majority of electrons are collected at the contact). Electron diffusion length values obtained by this method are compared with values derived by intensity modulated methods and by impedance measurements under illumination. The results indicate that the values of electron diffusion length derived from the steady state measurements are consistently lower than the values obtained by the non steady-state methods. For all three electrolytes used in the study, the electron diffusion length was sufficiently high to guarantee electron collection efficiencies greater than 90%. Measurement of the trap distributions by near-IR absorption confirmed earlier observations of much higher electron trap densities for electrolytes containing Li+ ions. It is suggested that the electron trap distributions may not be intrinsic properties of the TiO2 nanoparticles, but may be associated with electron-ion interactions.

A comparison of two business cycle dating methods

We study the suggestion that Markov switching (MS) models should be used to determine cyclical turning points. A Kalman filter approximation is used to derive the dating rules implicit in such models. We compare these with dating rules in an algorithm that provides a good approximation to the chronology determined by the NBER. We find that there is very little that is attractive in the MS approach when compared with this algorithm. The most important difference relates to robustness. The MS approach depends on the validity of that statistical model. Our approach is valid in a wider range of circumstances.

Technical note : modelling a complex micro-multileaf collimator using the standard BEAMnrc distribution

Purpose: The component modules in the standard BEAMnrc distribution may appear to be insufficient to model micro-multileaf collimators that have tri-faceted leaf ends and complex leaf profiles. This note indicates, however, that accurate Monte Carlo simulations of radiotherapy beams defined by a complex collimation device can be completed using BEAMnrc's standard VARMLC component module.---------- Methods: That this simple collimator model can produce spatially and dosimetrically accurate micro-collimated fields is illustrated using comparisons with ion chamber and film measurements of the dose deposited by square and irregular fields incident on planar, homogeneous water phantoms.---------- Results: Monte Carlo dose calculations for on- and off-axis fields are shown to produce good agreement with experimental values, even upon close examination of the penumbrae.--------- Conclusions: The use of a VARMLC model of the micro-multileaf collimator, along with a commissioned model of the associated linear accelerator, is therefore recommended as an alternative to the development or use of in-house or third-party component modules for simulating stereotactic radiotherapy and radiosurgery treatments. Simulation parameters for the VARMLC model are provided which should allow other researchers to adapt and use this model to study clinical stereotactic radiotherapy treatments.

Vision-based topological mapping and localisation

Competent navigation in an environment is a major requirement for an autonomous mobile robot to accomplish its mission. Nowadays, many successful systems for navigating a mobile robot use an internal map which represents the environment in a detailed geometric manner. However, building, maintaining and using such environment maps for navigation is difficult because of perceptual aliasing and measurement noise. Moreover, geometric maps require the processing of huge amounts of data which is computationally expensive. This thesis addresses the problem of vision-based topological mapping and localisation for mobile robot navigation. Topological maps are concise and graphical representations of environments that are scalable and amenable to symbolic manipulation. Thus, they are well-suited for basic robot navigation applications, and also provide a representational basis for the procedural and semantic information needed for higher-level robotic tasks. In order to make vision-based topological navigation suitable for inexpensive mobile robots for the mass market we propose to characterise key places of the environment based on their visual appearance through colour histograms. The approach for representing places using visual appearance is based on the fact that colour histograms change slowly as the field of vision sweeps the scene when a robot moves through an environment. Hence, a place represents a region of the environment rather than a single position. We demonstrate in experiments using an indoor data set, that a topological map in which places are characterised using visual appearance augmented with metric clues provides sufficient information to perform continuous metric localisation which is robust to the kidnapped robot problem. Many topological mapping methods build a topological map by clustering visual observations to places. However, due to perceptual aliasing observations from different places may be mapped to the same place representative in the topological map. A main contribution of this thesis is a novel approach for dealing with the perceptual aliasing problem in topological mapping. We propose to incorporate neighbourhood relations for disambiguating places which otherwise are indistinguishable. We present a constraint based stochastic local search method which integrates the approach for place disambiguation in order to induce a topological map. Experiments show that the proposed method is capable of mapping environments with a high degree of perceptual aliasing, and that a small map is found quickly. Moreover, the method of using neighbourhood information for place disambiguation is integrated into a framework for topological off-line simultaneous localisation and mapping which does not require an initial categorisation of visual observations. Experiments on an indoor data set demonstrate the suitability of our method to reliably localise the robot while building a topological map.