The Mid-Brunhes Event and West Antarctic ice sheet stability

The complex cyclical nature of Pleistocene climate, driven by the evolving orbital configuration of the Earth, is well known but not well understood. A major climatic transition took place at the Mid-Brunhes Event (MBE), ca. 430 ka ago after which the amplitude of the ca.100 ka climate oscillations increased, with substantially warmer interglacials, including periods warmer than present. Recent modelling has indicated that while the timing of these warmer-than-present transient (WPT) events is consistent with southern warming due to a deglaciation-forced slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the magnitude of warming requires a local amplification, for which a candidate is the feedback of significant West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) retreat. We here extend this argument, based on the absence of WPTs in the early ice core record (450–800 ka ago), to hypothesize that the MBE could be a manifestation of decreased WAIS stability, triggered by ongoing subglacial erosion.

The processing of number and gender agreement in Spanish: an event related potential investigation of the effects of structural distance

Previous research suggests that the processing of agreement is affected by the distance between the agreeing elements. However, the unique contribution of structural distance (number of intervening syntactic phrases) to the processing of agreement remains an open question, since previous investigations do not tease apart structural and linear distance (number of intervening words). We used event related potentials (ERPs) to examine the extent to which structural distance impacts the processing of Spanish number and gender agreement. Violations were realized both within the phrase and across the phrase. Across both levels of structural distance, linear distance was kept constant, as was the syntactic category of the agreeing elements. Number and gender agreement violations elicited a robust P600 between 400 and 900ms, a component associated with morphosyntactic processing. No amplitude differences were observed between number and gender violations, suggesting that the two features are processed similarly at the brain level. Within-phrase agreement yielded more positive waveforms than across-phrase agreement, both for agreement violations and for grammatical sentences (no agreement by distance interaction). These effects can be interpreted as evidence that structural distance impacts the establishment of agreement overall, consistent with sentence processing models which predict that hierarchical structure impacts the processing of syntactic dependencies. However, due to the lack of an agreement by distance interaction, the possibility cannot be ruled out that these effects are driven by differences in syntactic predictability between the within-phrase and across-phrase configurations, notably the fact that the syntactic category of the critical word was more predictable in the within-phrase conditions.

Examining second language development using event-related potentials: a cross-sectional study on the processing of gender and number agreement

This cross-sectional study examines the role of L1-L2 differences and structural distance in the processing of gender and number agreement by English-speaking learners of Spanish at three different levels of proficiency. Preliminary results show that differences between the L1 and L2 impact L2 development, as sensitivity to gender agreement violations, as opposed to number agreement violations, emerges only in learners at advanced levels of proficiency. Results also show that the establishment of agreement dependencies is impacted by the structural distance between the agreeing elements for native speakers and for learners at intermediate and advanced levels of proficiency but not for low proficiency. The overall pattern of results suggests that the linguistic factors examined here impact development but do not constrain ultimate attainment; for advanced learners, results suggest that second language processing is qualitatively similar to native processing.

Robust evaluation of fixed-event forecast rationality

In this paper we introduce a new testing procedure for evaluating the rationality of fixed-event forecasts based on a pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator. The procedure is designed to be robust to departures in the normality assumption. A model is introduced to show that such departures are likely when forecasters experience a credibility loss when they make large changes to their forecasts. The test is illustrated using monthly fixed-event forecasts produced by four UK institutions. Use of the robust test leads to the conclusion that certain forecasts are rational while use of the Gaussian-based test implies that certain forecasts are irrational. The difference in the results is due to the nature of the underlying data. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evaluating the Survey of Professional Forecasters probability distributions of expected inflation based on derived event probability forecasts

Techniques are proposed for evaluating forecast probabilities of events. The tools are especially useful when, as in the case of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) expected probability distributions of inflation, recourse cannot be made to the method of construction in the evaluation of the forecasts. The tests of efficiency and conditional efficiency are applied to the forecast probabilities of events of interest derived from the SPF distributions, and supplement a whole-density evaluation of the SPF distributions based on the probability integral transform approach.

Morphosyntactic processing in advanced second language (L2) learners: An event-related potential investigation of the effects of L1-L2 similarity and structural distance

Different theoretical accounts of second language (L2) acquisition differ with respect to whether or not advanced learners are predicted to show native like processing for features not instantiated in the native language (L1). We examined how native speakers of English, a language with number but not gender agreement, process number and gender agreement in Spanish. We compare agreement within a determiner phrase (órgano muy complejo “[DP organ-MASC-SG very complex-MASC-SG]”) and across a verb phrase (cuadro es auténtico “painting-MASC-SG [VP is authentic-MASC-SG]”) in order to investigate whether native like processing is limited to local domains (e.g. within the phrase), in line with Clahsen and Felser (2006). We also examine whether morphological differences in how the L1 and L2 realize a shared feature impact processing by comparing number agreement between nouns and adjectives, where only Spanish instantiates agreement, and between demonstratives and nouns, where English also instantiates agreement. Similar to Spanish natives, advanced learners showed a P600 for both number and gender violations overall, in line with the Full Transfer/Full Access Hypothesis (Schwartz and Sprouse, 1996), which predicts that learners can show native-like processing for novel features. Results also show that learners can establish syntactic dependencies outside of local domains, as suggested by the presence of a P600 for both within and across phrase violations. Moreover, similar to native speakers, learners were impacted by the structural distance (number of intervening phrases) between the agreeing elements, as suggested by the more positive waveforms for within than across-phrase agreement overall. These results are consistent with the proposal that learners are sensitive to hierarchical structure.

The catastrophic flash-flood event of 8–9 September 2002 in the Gard region, France: a first case study for the Cévennes–Vivarais Mediterranean Hydrometeorological Observatory

The Cévennes–Vivarais Mediterranean Hydrometeorological Observatory (OHM-CV) is a research initiative aimed at improving the understanding and modeling of the Mediterranean intense rain events that frequently result in devastating flash floods in southern France. A primary objective is to bring together the skills of meteorologists and hydrologists, modelers and instrumentalists, researchers and practitioners, to cope with these rather unpredictable events. In line with previously published flash-flood monographs, the present paper aims at documenting the 8–9 September 2002 catastrophic event, which resulted in 24 casualties and an economic damage evaluated at 1.2 billion euros (i.e., about 1 billion U.S. dollars) in the Gard region, France. A description of the synoptic meteorological situation is first given and shows that no particular precursor indicated the imminence of such an extreme event. Then, radar and rain gauge analyses are used to assess the magnitude of the rain event, which was particularly remarkable for its spatial extent with rain amounts greater than 200 mm in 24 h over 5500 km2. The maximum values of 600–700 mm observed locally are among the highest daily records in the region. The preliminary results of the postevent hydrological investigation show that the hydrologic response of the upstream watersheds of the Gard and Vidourle Rivers is consistent with the marked space–time structure of the rain event. It is noteworthy that peak specific discharges were very high over most of the affected areas (5–10 m3 s−1 km−2) and reached locally extraordinary values of more than 20 m3 s−1 km−2. A preliminary analysis indicates contrasting hydrological behaviors that seem to be related to geomorphological factors, notably the influence of karst in part of the region. An overview of the ongoing meteorological and hydrological research projects devoted to this case study within the OHM-CV is finally presented.

Taxonomic free sorting: a successful method with older consumers and a novel approach to preference mapping

Taxonomic free sorting (TFS) is a fast, reliable and new technique in sensory science. The method extends the typical free sorting task where stimuli are grouped according to similarities, by asking respondents to combine their groups two at a time to produce a hierarchy. Previously, TFS has been used for the visual assessment of packaging whereas this study extends the range of potential uses of the technique to incorporate full sensory analysis by the target consumer, which, when combined with hedonic liking scores, was used to generate a novel preference map. Furthermore, to fully evaluate the efficacy of using the sorting method, the technique was evaluated with a healthy older adult consumer group. Participants sorted eight products into groups and described their reason at each stage as they combined those groups, producing a consumer-specific vocabulary. This vocabulary was combined with hedonic data from a separate group of older adults, to give the external preference map. Taxonomic sorting is a simple, fast and effective method for use with older adults, and its combination with liking data can yield a preference map constructed entirely from target consumer data.

Modulation of event-related desynchronization during kinematic and kinetic hand movements

Background Event-related desynchronization/synchronization (ERD/ERS) is a relative power decrease/increase of electroencephalogram (EEG) in a specific frequency band during physical motor execution and mental motor imagery, thus it is widely used for the brain-computer interface (BCI) purpose. However what the ERD really reflects and its frequency band specific role have not been agreed and are under investigation. Understanding the underlying mechanism which causes a significant ERD would be crucial to improve the reliability of the ERD-based BCI. We systematically investigated the relationship between conditions of actual repetitive hand movements and resulting ERD. Methods Eleven healthy young participants were asked to close/open their right hand repetitively at three different speeds (Hold, 1/3 Hz, and 1 Hz) and four distinct motor loads (0, 2, 10, and 15 kgf). In each condition, participants repeated 20 experimental trials, each of which consisted of rest (8–10 s), preparation (1 s) and task (6 s) periods. Under the Hold condition, participants were instructed to keep clenching their hand (i.e., isometric contraction) during the task period. Throughout the experiment, EEG signals were recorded from left and right motor areas for offline data analysis. We obtained time courses of EEG power spectrum to discuss the modulation of mu and beta-ERD/ERS due to the task conditions. Results We confirmed salient mu-ERD (8–13 Hz) and slightly weak beta-ERD (14–30 Hz) on both hemispheres during repetitive hand grasping movements. According to a 3 × 4 ANOVA (speed × motor load), both mu and beta-ERD during the task period were significantly weakened under the Hold condition, whereas no significant difference in the kinetics levels and interaction effect was observed. Conclusions This study investigates the effect of changes in kinematics and kinetics on resulting ERD during repetitive hand grasping movements. The experimental results suggest that the strength of ERD may reflect the time differentiation of hand postures in motor planning process or the variation of proprioception resulting from hand movements, rather than the motor command generated in the down stream, which recruits a group of motor neurons.

Influence of short-term solar disturbances on the fair weather conduction current

The fair weather atmospheric electrical current (Jz) couples the ionosphere to the lower atmosphere and thus provides a route by which changes in solar activity can modify processes in the lower troposphere. This paper examines the temporal variations and spectral characteristics of continuous measurements of Jz conducted at the Wise Observatory in Mitzpe-Ramon, Israel (30°35′ N, 34°45′ E), during two large CMEs, and during periods of increased solar wind density. Evidence is presented for the effects of geomagnetic storms and sub-storms on low latitude Jz during two coronal mass ejections (CMEs), on 24–25th October 2011 and 7–8th March 2012, when the variability in Jz increased by an order of magnitude compared to normal fair weather conditions. The dynamic spectrum of the increased Jz fluctuations exhibit peaks in the Pc5 frequency range. Similar low frequency characteristics occur during periods of enhanced solar wind proton density. During the October 2011 event, the periods of increased fluctuations in Jz lasted for 7 h and coincided with fluctuations of the inter-planetary magnetic field (IMF) detected by the ACE satellite. We suggest downward mapping of ionospheric electric fields as a possible mechanism for the increased fluctuations.

Sensitivity of a hydraulic model to changes in channel erosion during extreme flooding

Recent research into flood modelling has primarily concentrated on the simulation of inundation flow without considering the influences of channel morphology. River channels are often represented by a simplified geometry that is implicitly assumed to remain unchanged during flood simulations. However, field evidence demonstrates that significant morphological changes can occur during floods to mobilise the boundary sediments. Despite this, the effect of channel morphology on model results has been largely unexplored. To address this issue, the impact of channel cross-section geometry and channel long-profile variability on flood dynamics is examined using an ensemble of a 1D-2D hydraulic model (LISFLOOD-FP) of the 1:2102 year recurrence interval floods in Cockermouth, UK, within an uncertainty framework. A series of hypothetical scenarios of channel morphology were constructed based on a simple velocity based model of critical entrainment. A Monte-Carlo simulation framework was used to quantify the effects of channel morphology together with variations in the channel and floodplain roughness coefficients, grain size characteristics, and critical shear stress on measures of flood inundation. The results showed that the bed elevation modifications generated by the simplistic equations reflected a good approximation of the observed patterns of spatial erosion despite its overestimation of erosion depths. The effect of uncertainty on channel long-profile variability only affected the local flood dynamics and did not significantly affect the friction sensitivity and flood inundation mapping. The results imply that hydraulic models generally do not need to account for within event morphodynamic changes of the type and magnitude modelled, as these have a negligible impact that is smaller than other uncertainties, e.g. boundary conditions. Instead morphodynamic change needs to happen over a series of events to become large enough to change the hydrodynamics of floods in supply limited gravel-bed rivers like the one used in this research.