Measuring the global burden of disease and epidemiological transitions: 2002-2030

Any planning process for health development ought to be based on a thorough understanding of the health needs of the population. This should be sufficiently comprehensive to include the causes of premature death and of disability, as well as the major risk factors that underlie disease and injury. To be truly useful to inform health-policy debates, such an assessment is needed across a large number of diseases, injuries and risk factors, in order to guide prioritization. The results of the original Global Burden of Disease Study and, particularly, those of its 2000-2002 update provide a conceptual and methodological framework to quantify and compare the health of populations using a summary measure of both mortality and disability: the disability-adjusted life-year (DALY). Globally, it appears that about 5 6 million deaths occur each year, 10. 5 million (almost all in poor countries) in children. Of the child deaths, about one-fifth result from perinatal causes such as birth asphyxia and birth trauma, and only slightly less from lower respiratory infections. Annually, diarrhoeal diseases kill over 1.5 million children, and malaria, measles and HIV/AIDS each claim between 500,000 and 800,000 children. HIV/AIDS is the fourth leading cause of death world-wide (2.9 million deaths) and the leading cause in Africa. The top three causes of death globally are ischaemic heart disease (7.2 million deaths), stroke (5.5 million) and lower respiratory diseases (3.9 million). Chronic obstructive lung diseases (COPD) cause almost as many deaths as HIV/AIDS (2.7 million). The leading causes of DALY, on the other hand, include causes that are common at young ages [perinatal conditions (7. 1 % of global DALY), lower respiratory infections (6.7%), and diarrhoeal diseases (4.7%)] as well as depression (4.1%). Ischaemic heart disease and stroke rank sixth and seventh, retrospectively, as causes of global disease burden, followed by road traffic accidents, malaria and tuberculosis. Projections to 2030 indicate that, although these major vascular diseases will remain leading causes of global disease burden, with HIV/AIDS the leading cause, diarrhoeal diseases and lower respiratory infections will be outranked by COPD, in part reflecting the projected increases in death and disability from tobacco use.

Passive air sampling for persistent organic pollutants: Introductory remarks to the special issue

There have been a number of developments in the need, design and use of passive air samplers (PAS) for persistent organic pollutants (POPs). This article is the first in a Special Issue of the journal to review these developments and some of the data arising from them. We explain the need and benefit of developing PAS for POPs, the different approaches that can be used, and highlight future developments and needs. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measurement and management of genotype-environment interaction (GxE) for the improvement of rainfed lowland rice yield in Cambodia

The magnitude and nature of genotype-by-environment interactions (G×E) for grain yield (GY) and days to flower (DTF) in Cambodia were examined using a random population of 34 genotypes taken from the Cambodian rice improvement program. These genotypes were evaluated in multi-environment trials (MET) conducted across three years (2000 to 2002) and eight locations in the rainfed lowlands. The G×E interaction was partitioned into components attributed to genotype-by-location (G×L), genotype-by-year (G×Y) and genotype-by-location-by-year (G×L×Y) interactions. The G×L×Y interaction was the largest component of variance for GY. The G×L interaction was also significant and comparable in size to the genotypic component (G). The G×Y interaction was small and non significant. A major factor contributing to the large G×L×Y interactions for GY was the genotypic variation for DTF in combination with environmental variation for the timing and intensity of drought. Some of the interactions for GY associated with timing of plant development and exposure to drought were repeatable across the environments enabling the identification of three-target populations of environments (TPE) for consideration in the breeding program. Four genotypes were selected for wide adaptation in the rainfed lowlands in Cambodia.

Computer control of chemical process plants with special reference to distillation

A sieve plate distillation column has been constructed and interfaced to a minicomputer with the necessary instrumentation for dynamic, estimation and control studies with special bearing on low-cost and noise-free instrumentation. A dynamic simulation of the column with a binary liquid system has been compiled using deterministic models that include fluid dynamics via Brambilla's equation for tray liquid holdup calculations. The simulation predictions have been tested experimentally under steady-state and transient conditions. The simulator's predictions of the tray temperatures have shown reasonably close agreement with the measured values under steady-state conditions and in the face of a step change in the feed rate. A method of extending linear filtering theory to highly nonlinear systems with very nonlinear measurement functional relationships has been proposed and tested by simulation on binary distillation. The simulation results have proved that the proposed methodology can overcome the typical instability problems associated with the Kalman filters. Three extended Kalman filters have been formulated and tested by simulation. The filters have been used to refine a much simplified model sequentially and to estimate parameters such as the unmeasured feed composition using information from the column simulation. It is first assumed that corrupted tray composition measurements are made available to the filter and then corrupted tray temperature measurements are accessed instead. The simulation results have demonstrated the powerful capability of the Kalman filters to overcome the typical hardware problems associated with the operation of on-line analyzers in relation to distillation dynamics and control by, in effect, replacirig them. A method of implementing estimator-aided feedforward (EAFF) control schemes has been proposed and tested by simulation on binary distillation. The results have shown that the EAFF scheme provides much better control and energy conservation than the conventional feedback temperature control in the face of a sustained step change in the feed rate or multiple changes in the feed rate, composition and temperature. Further extensions of this work are recommended as regards simulation, estimation and EAFF control.

Aspects of the learner's dictionary with special reference to advanced Pakistani learners of English

The present work is an empirical investigation into the lq`reference skills' of Pakistani learners and their language needs on semantic, phonetic, lexical and pragmatic levels in the dictionary. The introductory chapter discusses the relatively problematic nature of lexis in comparison with the other aspects in EFL learning and spells out the aim of this study. Chapter two provides an analytical survey of the various types of research undertaken in different contexts of the dictionary and explains the eclectic approach adopted in the present work. Chapter three studies the `reference skills' of this category of learners in the background of highly sophisticated information structure of learners' dictionaries under evaluation and suggests some measures for improvement in this context. Chapter four considers various criteria, eg. pedagogic, linguistic and sociolinguistic for determining the macro-structure of learner's dictionary with a focus on specific Ll speakers. Chapter five is concerned with various aspects of the semantic information provided in the dictionaries matched against the needs of Pakistani learners with regard to both comprehension and production. The type, scale and presentation of grammatical information in the dictionary is analysed in chapter six with the object of discovering their role and utility for the learner. Chapter seven explores the rationale for providing phonological information, the extent to which this guidance is vital and the problems of phonetic symbols employed in the dictionaries. Chapter eight brings into perspective the historical background of English-Urdu bilingual lexicography and evalutes the currently popular bilingual dictionaries among the student community, with the aim of discovering the extent to which they have taken account of the modern tents of lexicography and investigating their validity as a useful reference tool in the learning of English language. The final chapter concludes the findings of individual aspects in a coherent fashion to assess the viability of the original hypothesis that learners' dictionaries if compiled with a specific set of users in mind would be more useful.

A survey of some small firms in the rural areas of England: their structure and functions, with special reference to factors that affect their development

This study was concerned with the structure, functions and development, especially the performance, of some rural small firms associated with the Council for Small Industries in Rural Areas (C?SIRA) of England. Forty firms were used as the main basis of analysis. For some aspects of the investigation, however, data from another 54 firms, obtained indirectly through nine CoSIRA Organisers, were also used. For performance-analysis, the 40 firms were firstly ranked according to their growth and profitability rates which were calculated from their financial data. Then each of the variables hypothesised to be related to performance was tested to ascertain its relationship with performance, using the Spearman's Rank Correlation technique. The analysis indicated that each of the four factors .. the principal, the firm itself, its management, and the environment - had a bearing upon the performance of the firm. Within the first factor, the owner-manager's background and attitudes were found to be most important; in the second, the firm's size, age and scope of activities were also found to be correlated with performance; with respect to the third, it was revealed that firms which practised some forms of systems in planning, control and costing performed better than those which did not and, finally with respect to the fourth factor, it was found that some of the services provided by CoSIRA, especially credit finance, were facilitative to the firm's performance. Another significant facet of the firms highlighted by the study was their multifarious roles. These, meeting economic, psychological, sociological and political needs, were considered to be most useful to man and his society. Finally, the study has added light to the structural characteristics of the sampled firms, including various aspects of their development, orientation and organisation, as well as their various structural strengths and weakness. ' .

Implementation of vectorial bend sensors using long-period gratings UV-inscribed in special shape fibres

We report the implementation of vector bending sensors using long-period gratings (LPGs) UV-inscribed in flat-clad, four-core and D-shaped fibres. Our experiments reveal a strong fibre-orientation dependence of the spectral response when such LPGs are subjected to dynamic bending, which provided an opportunity to realize curvature measurement with direction recognition.

Gold mineralisation in the Caledonides of the British Isles with special reference to the Dolgellau Gold-belt, North Wales and the Southern Uplands, Scotland. Available in 2 volumes.

Two aspects of gold mineralisation in the Caledonides of the British Isles have been investigated: gold-telluride mineralisation at Clogau Mine, North Wales; and placer gold mineralisation in the Southern Uplands, Scotland. The primary ore assemblage at Clogau Mine is pyrite, arsenopyrite, cobaltite, pyrrhotine, chalcopyrite, galena, tellurbismuth, tetradymite, altaite, hessite, native gold, wehrlite, hedleyite, native bismuth, bismuthunite and various sulphosalts. The generalised paragenesis is early Fe, Co, Cu, As and S species, and later minerals of Pb, Bi, Ag, Au, Te, Sb. Electron probe micro-analysis (EPMA) of complex telluride-sulphide intergrowths suggests that these intergrowths formed by co-crystallisation/replacement processes and not exsolution. Minor element chemical variation, in the sulphides and tellurides, indicates that antimony and cadmium are preferentially partitioned into telluride minerals. Mineral stability diagrams suggest that during gold deposition log bf aTe2 was between -7.9 and -9.7 and log bf aS2 between -12.4 and -13.8. Co-existing mineral assemblages indicate that the final stages of telluride mineralisation were between c. 250 - 275oC. It is suggested that the high-grade telluride ore shoot was the result of remobilisation of Au, Bi, Ag and Te from low grade mineralisation elsewhere within the vein system, and that gold deposition was brought about by destabilisation of gold chloride complexes by interaction with graphite, sulphides and tellurbismuth. Scanning electron microscopy of planer gold grains from the Southern Uplands, Scotland, indicates that detailed studies on the morphology of placer gold can be used to elucidate the history of gold in the placer environment. In total 18 different morphological characteristics were identified. These were divided on an empirical basis, using the relative degree of mechanical attrition, into proximal and distal characteristics. One morphological characteristic (a porous/spongy surface at high magnification) is considered to be chemical in origin and represent the growth of `new' gold in the placer environment. The geographical distribution of morphological characteristics has been examined and suggests that proximal placer gold is spatially associated with the Loch Doon, Cairsphairn and Fleet granitoids. Quantitative EPMA of the placer gold reveals two compositional populations of placer gold. Examination of the geographical distribution of fineness suggests a loose spatial association between granitoids and low fineness placer gold. Also identified was chemically heterogeneous placer gold. EPMA studies of these heterogeneities allowed estimation of annealing history limits, which suggest that the heterogeneities formed between 150 and 235oC. It is concluded, on the basis of relationships between morphology and composition, that there are two types of placer gold in the Southern Uplands: (i) placer gold which is directly inherited from a hypogene source probably spatially associated with granitoids; and (ii) placer gold that has formed during supergene processes.

Current practice and opinion in special schools for the maladjusted in England and Wales

This study seeks to describe current practice and opinion in schools for the maladjusted in England and Wales and to exarnlne how far this coincides with earlier descriptions. A review of the literature provides an account of this earlier work, and data accrued from questionnaires completed by 114 schools describe current practice and opinion. The study represents the most extensive empirical enquiry into the work of these schools since 1955 and provides a wide data basis for future research and assessment of progress and change. The data suggest that there is much communality of practice and opinion within the schools, with most schools emphasising their therapeutic rather than their educational purpose. The work is characterised by the wide use and perceived efficacy of warm, caring adult to child relationships, improvement of pupil self-image through success, and individual counselling and discussion, which permeate a structure of routine, discipline and educational concern. Specialised treatments are not used widely and involve only a minority of pupils. Practice tends to be in reference to conduct disordered pupils who are now perceived as the largest single disorder group within the schools, whereas previously neurotic disorders formed the largest single group. The majority of pupils are perceived as underachieving on entry and requiring remedial help: consequently the educational programme has a remedial bias. For staff, qualities of personality are considered to be more valuable than professional skills. The schools differ in the emphasis they allocate to one or more of four identified areas of treatment described as concern for pupils' needs; degree of pupil participation; theoretical orientation: and the use of external controls. There is a diminished reference to psychoanalytical theory and an increased reference to behaviourist theory relative to previous practice. Similarly, the use and perceived importance and effectiveness of pupil participation and unconditional affection has diminished.

Uses of frontier efficiency methodologies and multi-criteria decision making for performance measurement in the energy sector

Guest editorial Ali Emrouznejad is a Senior Lecturer at the Aston Business School in Birmingham, UK. His areas of research interest include performance measurement and management, efficiency and productivity analysis as well as data mining. He has published widely in various international journals. He is an Associate Editor of IMA Journal of Management Mathematics and Guest Editor to several special issues of journals including Journal of Operational Research Society, Annals of Operations Research, Journal of Medical Systems, and International Journal of Energy Management Sector. He is in the editorial board of several international journals and co-founder of Performance Improvement Management Software. William Ho is a Senior Lecturer at the Aston University Business School. Before joining Aston in 2005, he had worked as a Research Associate in the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University. His research interests include supply chain management, production and operations management, and operations research. He has published extensively in various international journals like Computers & Operations Research, Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, European Journal of Operational Research, Expert Systems with Applications, International Journal of Production Economics, International Journal of Production Research, Supply Chain Management: An International Journal, and so on. His first authored book was published in 2006. He is an Editorial Board member of the International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology and an Associate Editor of the OR Insight Journal. Currently, he is a Scholar of the Advanced Institute of Management Research. Uses of frontier efficiency methodologies and multi-criteria decision making for performance measurement in the energy sector This special issue aims to focus on holistic, applied research on performance measurement in energy sector management and for publication of relevant applied research to bridge the gap between industry and academia. After a rigorous refereeing process, seven papers were included in this special issue. The volume opens with five data envelopment analysis (DEA)-based papers. Wu et al. apply the DEA-based Malmquist index to evaluate the changes in relative efficiency and the total factor productivity of coal-fired electricity generation of 30 Chinese administrative regions from 1999 to 2007. Factors considered in the model include fuel consumption, labor, capital, sulphur dioxide emissions, and electricity generated. The authors reveal that the east provinces were relatively and technically more efficient, whereas the west provinces had the highest growth rate in the period studied. Ioannis E. Tsolas applies the DEA approach to assess the performance of Greek fossil fuel-fired power stations taking undesirable outputs into consideration, such as carbon dioxide and sulphur dioxide emissions. In addition, the bootstrapping approach is deployed to address the uncertainty surrounding DEA point estimates, and provide bias-corrected estimations and confidence intervals for the point estimates. The author revealed from the sample that the non-lignite-fired stations are on an average more efficient than the lignite-fired stations. Maethee Mekaroonreung and Andrew L. Johnson compare the relative performance of three DEA-based measures, which estimate production frontiers and evaluate the relative efficiency of 113 US petroleum refineries while considering undesirable outputs. Three inputs (capital, energy consumption, and crude oil consumption), two desirable outputs (gasoline and distillate generation), and an undesirable output (toxic release) are considered in the DEA models. The authors discover that refineries in the Rocky Mountain region performed the best, and about 60 percent of oil refineries in the sample could improve their efficiencies further. H. Omrani, A. Azadeh, S. F. Ghaderi, and S. Abdollahzadeh presented an integrated approach, combining DEA, corrected ordinary least squares (COLS), and principal component analysis (PCA) methods, to calculate the relative efficiency scores of 26 Iranian electricity distribution units from 2003 to 2006. Specifically, both DEA and COLS are used to check three internal consistency conditions, whereas PCA is used to verify and validate the final ranking results of either DEA (consistency) or DEA-COLS (non-consistency). Three inputs (network length, transformer capacity, and number of employees) and two outputs (number of customers and total electricity sales) are considered in the model. Virendra Ajodhia applied three DEA-based models to evaluate the relative performance of 20 electricity distribution firms from the UK and the Netherlands. The first model is a traditional DEA model for analyzing cost-only efficiency. The second model includes (inverse) quality by modelling total customer minutes lost as an input data. The third model is based on the idea of using total social costs, including the firm’s private costs and the interruption costs incurred by consumers, as an input. Both energy-delivered and number of consumers are treated as the outputs in the models. After five DEA papers, Stelios Grafakos, Alexandros Flamos, Vlasis Oikonomou, and D. Zevgolis presented a multiple criteria analysis weighting approach to evaluate the energy and climate policy. The proposed approach is akin to the analytic hierarchy process, which consists of pairwise comparisons, consistency verification, and criteria prioritization. In the approach, stakeholders and experts in the energy policy field are incorporated in the evaluation process by providing an interactive mean with verbal, numerical, and visual representation of their preferences. A total of 14 evaluation criteria were considered and classified into four objectives, such as climate change mitigation, energy effectiveness, socioeconomic, and competitiveness and technology. Finally, Borge Hess applied the stochastic frontier analysis approach to analyze the impact of various business strategies, including acquisition, holding structures, and joint ventures, on a firm’s efficiency within a sample of 47 natural gas transmission pipelines in the USA from 1996 to 2005. The author finds that there were no significant changes in the firm’s efficiency by an acquisition, and there is a weak evidence for efficiency improvements caused by the new shareholder. Besides, the author discovers that parent companies appear not to influence a subsidiary’s efficiency positively. In addition, the analysis shows a negative impact of a joint venture on technical efficiency of the pipeline company. To conclude, we are grateful to all the authors for their contribution, and all the reviewers for their constructive comments, which made this special issue possible. We hope that this issue would contribute significantly to performance improvement of the energy sector.

Implementation of vectorial bend sensors using long-period gratings UV-inscribed in special shape fibres

We report the implementation of vector bending sensors using long-period gratings (LPGs) UV-inscribed in flat-clad, four-core and D-shaped fibres. Our experiments reveal a strong fibre-orientation dependence of the spectral response when such LPGs are subjected to dynamic bending, which provided an opportunity to realize curvature measurement with direction recognition.

The use of the lichen genus Rhizocarpon in lichenometric dating with special reference to Holocene glacial events

Lichenometry is one of the most widely used methods of dating the surface age of substrata including rock surfaces, boulders, walls, and archaeological remains and has been particularly important in dating late Holocene glacial events. Yellow-green species of the crustose genus Rhizocarpon have been the most useful lichens in lichenometry because of their low growth rates and longevity. This review describes: (1) the biology of the genus Rhizocarpon, (2) growth rates and longevity, (3) environmental growth effects, (4) methods of estimating lichen age, (5) the methodology of lichenometry, (6) applications to dating glacial events, and (7) future research. Lichenometry depends on many assumptions, most critically that if the lag time before colonisation of a substratum is known and lichen age can be estimated, then a minimum surface age date can be obtained by measuring the size of the largest Rhizocarpon thallus. Lichen age can be estimated by calibrating thallus size against surfaces of known age (‘indirect lichenometry’), by constructing a growth rate-size curve from direct measurement of growth (‘direct lichenometry’), using radio-carbon (RC) dating, or from lichen ‘growth rings’. Future research should include a more rigorous investigation of the assumptions of lichenometry, especially whether the largest thallus present at a site is a good indicator of substratum age, and further studies on the establishment, development, growth, senescence, and mortality of Rhizocarpon lichens.

A lean kultúra értelmezése és mérése egy egészségügyi szolgáltatónál (The interpretation and measurement of the lean culture – in case of a healthcare service provider)

A lean menedzsment egészségügyi szolgáltatásokra való alkalmazásával elérhető eredmények egyre inkább nyilvánvalóvá válnak. Ennek köszönhetően a szektorban dinamikus növekedés tapasztalható ezen a téren. A kutatások azonban arra hívják fel a figyelmet, hogy a lean menedzsment alkalmazásával elért eredmények csak akkor lesznek fenntarthatóak, ha az eszközök alkalmazását a kultúra átalakulása is követi. A kultúra változásának követéséhez annak folyamatos értékelésére van szükség. A szervezeti kultúra lean-specifikus méréséhez azonban – a szerzők tudomása szerint – még nincs kidolgozott eszköz. Ezért cikkükben a kapcsolódó szakirodalom áttekintése után kidolgoztak egy lean kultúra kérdőívet, majd bemutatják a kérdőív tesztelését és annak eredményeit. Összegzésként elmondható, hogy az itt bemutatott kérdőív az első tesztelés alapján további fejlesztésre szorul. / === / The results that can be obtained by applying lean management in healthcare services become more and more clear. This generates a dynamic increase of lean applications in healthcare. However, researches are warning that the res ults obtained by lean applications can only be sustained, if next to the use of the lean tools cultural change will also take place. In order to track changes in culture its constant evaluation is necessary. According to the authors’ knowledge today does not exist any lean-specific culture evaluation tool. In this paper they elaborate a lean culture questionnaire based on the review of relevant literature. Than they describe its test and the results of the test. The authors conclude that the questionnaire as introduced here needs further improvement.