A Bayesian approach to study the risk variables for tuberculosis occurrence in domestic and wild ungulates in South Central Spain

BACKGROUND Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic infectious disease mainly caused by Mycobacterium bovis. Although eradication is a priority for the European authorities, bTB remains active or even increasing in many countries, causing significant economic losses. The integral consideration of epidemiological factors is crucial to more cost-effectively allocate control measures. The aim of this study was to identify the nature and extent of the association between TB distribution and a list of potential risk factors regarding cattle, wild ungulates and environmental aspects in Ciudad Real, a Spanish province with one of the highest TB herd prevalences. RESULTS We used a Bayesian mixed effects multivariable logistic regression model to predict TB occurrence in either domestic or wild mammals per municipality in 2007 by using information from the previous year. The municipal TB distribution and endemicity was clustered in the western part of the region and clearly overlapped with the explanatory variables identified in the final model: (1) incident cattle farms, (2) number of years of veterinary inspection of big game hunting events, (3) prevalence in wild boar, (4) number of sampled cattle, (5) persistent bTB-infected cattle farms, (6) prevalence in red deer, (7) proportion of beef farms, and (8) farms devoted to bullfighting cattle. CONCLUSIONS The combination of these eight variables in the final model highlights the importance of the persistence of the infection in the hosts, surveillance efforts and some cattle management choices in the circulation of M. bovis in the region. The spatial distribution of these variables, together with particular Mediterranean features that favour the wildlife-livestock interface may explain the M. bovis persistence in this region. Sanitary authorities should allocate efforts towards specific areas and epidemiological situations where the wildlife-livestock interface seems to critically hamper the definitive bTB eradication success.

A Historical Materialist Approach to the Eurozone Crisis: Fictitious Capital, States, and Capital Accumulation

This dissertation examines the ongoing European sovereign debt crises that began with Greece in 2009, in the wake of the US subprime mortgage crisis. Through the application of a historical materialist approach, I attempt to understand the on-going crisis in the European Monetary Union (EMU) by investigating root causes of sovereign debt crises, relations of power, and main beneficiaries of the policy responses. My theoretical framework hinges on three contradictions in capitalism: the tendency towards overaccumulation, the tension between fictitious capital and the productive base, and the contradiction inherent in capitalist states between their role as a national state and as a class state. In contrast to the dominant positions that locate the cause of the crisis within either: debtor states; creditor states; or the framework at the EMU, I argue that these sovereign debt crises are actually a broader crisis of crisis of capitalism within the EMU itself. In order to do so, I trace the evolution of the political economy of the Eurozone in the post-Bretton woods era, with a particularly focus on the credit system. More specifically, I argue that these crises are the result of an interaction between three meso-level contradictions that have developed within the EMU region: 1) Germany’s postwar accumulation regime, which has produced a deep crisis of overaccumulation; 2) the contradictory processes associated with the neoliberal logic of the EMU, by which I mean the rush to lower barriers to credit and finance at the expense of all else; and 3) credit-fueled, consumption-based EMU integration in the periphery; and. These three contradictions came together in the wake of the 2007-2008 US subprime crisis to form an overall crisis of capitalism in the Eurozone, expressed, as I suggest, as a crisis of fictitious capital. This dissertation aims to contribute to the ongoing project among critical political economists to de-naturalize and re-politicize money, while challenging the hegemony of monetarism within neoliberalism. Second, there has yet to be a comprehensive study that examines the EMU, Germany, and the crises in the periphery from a holistic, historical materialist analysis.

Explaining the Outcomes of Negotiations of Economic Partnership Agreements between the European Union and the African, Caribbean and Pacific Regional Economic Communities - Comparing EU-CARIFORUM and EU-ECOWAS EPAs

The European Commission has been negotiating Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) with Regional Economic Communities of African, Caribbean and Pacific Group of States since 2002. The outcomes have been mixed. The negotiations with the Caribbean Forum (CARIFORUM) concluded rather more quickly than was initially envisaged, whereas negotiations with West African Economic Community (ECOWAS) and the remaining ACP regions have been dragging on for several years. This research consequently addresses the key question of what accounts for the variations in the EPA negotiation outcomes, making use of a comparative research approach. It evaluates the explanatory power of three research variables in accounting for the variation in the EPA negotiations outcomes – namely, Best Alternative to the Negotiated Agreement (BATNA); negotiation strategies; and the issues linkage approach – which are deduced from negotiation theory. Principally, the study finds that, the outcomes of the EPA negotiations predominantly depended on the presence or otherwise of a “Best Alternative” to the proposed EPA; that is then complemented by the negotiation strategies pursued by the parties, and the joint application of issues linkage mechanism which facilitated a sense of mutual benefit from the agreements.

Points of equilibrium: religious beliefs and economic development policy

Eighty per cent of the world's population professes religious belief. Such beliefs provide precepts on how individuals should conduct their private lives and (often) how society should be organized. Given there are 2.1 billion Christians worldwide and 1.3 billion Muslims, understanding the religious approach to social life based on sacred texts and social teachings of Christianity and Islam has a strong relevance to those interested in implementing international economic development policies. This paper argues that religion can thus play a positive role in development and specifically support development economic policies at the international level. The purpose of this paper is not to present a fully formed development economic policy, but rather to identify teachings of the world's two largest religions – such as preferencing the poor, minimizing inequality and having the economy serve wider realms of society – that directly speak to how sustainable economic development is understood within these faith traditions and how these teachings could scaffold and support and international policy frameworks aimed to achieve sustainable economic development. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.

Reconsidering the estimation of the economic impact of cultural tourism

The assessment of the economic benefits of cultural events is necessary to inform decision-making. In many cases cultural events are designed to attract tourists and the injection of tourist spending to a local economy is one of the drivers for hosting events. From an economic perspective, the impact of staging an event can be measured using either an expenditure multiplier or a cost benefit analysis (CBA) approach. One of the difficulties with CBA is the data required to estimate the relevant benefit function. This paper addresses this limitation by illustrating how benefit functions can be parameterised with minimal data, thereby enhancing the possibility of using CBA. Our approach is illustrated with a case study of an exhibition held by a regional community in Australia. The case study compares economic impact assessments and finds using benefit estimates as we propose provides a useful method of estimating benefits with limited data.

Socio-economic characterisation of date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) growers and date value chains in Pakistan

Increasing food production to feed its rapidly growing population is a major policy goal of Pakistan. The production of traditional staples such as rice (Oryza sativa L.) and bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) has been intensified in many regions, but not in remote, drought-ridden areas. In these arid, marginal environments dates and their by-products are an option to complement staples given their high nutritive value and storability. To fill knowledge gaps about the role of date palm in the household (HH) income of rural communities and the structure of date value chains, this project studied date palm production across six districts in four provinces of Pakistan. During 2012–2013 a total of 170 HHs were interviewed with a structured questionnaire using a snowball sampling approach. The results showed that most of the HH were headed by males (99 %) who were married (74 %) and often illiterate (40 %). Agriculture was the main occupation of date palm growers (56 %), while a few coupled agricultural activities with business (17 %) or extra-farm employment opportunities (government 9 %; private sector 8 %). Date sales contributed >50 % to the total income of 39 % of HH and 90–100 % to 24 % of HH. Overall farmers grew a total of 39 date palm cultivars and cultivated an average of 409 ± 559 mature date palms. The majority of the respondents sold dates to commission agents (35 %), contractors (22 %) and wholesalers (21 %), while 28 % of HH cultivated date palms only for self-consumption. Date palm growers had only limited knowledge about high quality date cultivars, optimized farm management and about effective post-harvest conservation. Changes in extension and marketing efforts are needed to allow farmers to better exploit value chains in date thereby reaping higher benefits from improved market access to secure their often marginal income.

Communication across cultures? An intercultural approach to customer service in the hotel industry: a study with globally branded hotels in the United Kingdom

In a professional and business-social context such as that of global hotel brands in the United Kingdom, intercultural communication, contacts and relationships are found at the heart of daily operations and of customer service. A large part of the clientele base of hotels in the United Kingdom is formed by individuals who belong to different cultural groups that travel in the country either for leisure or business. At the same time, the global workforce which is recruited in the hotel industry in the United Kingdom is a reality here to stay. Global travelling and labor work mobility are phenomena which have been generated by changes which occur on a socio-economic, cultural and political level due to the phenomenon of globalization. The hotel industry is therefore well acquainted with the essence of different cultures either to be accommodated within hotel premises, as in the case of external customers, or of diversity management where different cultures are recruited in the hotel industry, as in the case of internal customers. This thesis derives from research conducted on eight different global hotel brands in the United Kingdom in particular, with reference to three, four and five star categories. The research aimed to answer the question of how hotels are organized in order to address issues of intercultural communication during customer service and if intercultural barriers arise during the intercultural interaction of hotel staff and global customers. So as to understand how global hotel brands operate the research carried out focused in three main areas relating to each hotel: organizational culture, customer service–customer care and intercultural issues. The study utilized qualitative interviews with hotel management staff and non-management staff from different cultural backgrounds, public space observations between customers and staff during check-in and checkout in the reception area and during dining at the café-bar and restaurant. Thematic analysis was also applied to the official web page of each hotel and to job advertisements to enhance the findings from the interviews and the observations. For the process of analysis of the data interpretive (hermeneutic) phenomenology of Martin Heidegger has been applied. Generally, it was found that hotel staff quite often feel perplexed by how to deal with and how to overcome, for instance, language barriers and religious issues and how to interpret non verbal behaviors or matters on food culture relating to the intercultural aspect of customer service. In addition, it was interesting to find that attention to excellent customer service on the part of hotel staff is a top organizational value and customer care is a priority. Despite that, the participating hotel brands appear to have not yet, realized how intercultural barriers can affect the daily operation of the hotel, the job performance and the psychology of hotel staff. Employees indicated that they were keen to receive diversity training, provided by their organizations, so as to learn about different cultural needs and expand their intercultural skills. The notion of diversity training in global hotel brands is based on the sense that one of the multiple aims of diversity management as a practice and policy in the workplace of hotels is the better understanding of intercultural differences. Therefore global hotel brands can consider diversity training as a practice which will benefit their hotel staff and clientele base at the same time. This can have a distinctive organizational advantage for organizational affairs in the hotel industry, with potential to influence the effectiveness and performance of hotels.

The Drivers of Wage Inequality Across Europe: A Recentered Influence Function Regression Approach

This study analyzes the impact of individual characteristics as well as occupation and industry on male wage inequality in nine European countries. Unlike previous studies, we consider regression models for five inequality measures and employ the recentered influence function regression method proposed by Firpo et al. (2009) to test directly the influence of covariates on inequality. We conclude that there is heterogeneity in the effects of covariates on inequality across countries and throughout wage distribution. Heterogeneity among countries is more evident in education and experience whereas occupation and industry characteristics as well as holding a supervisory position reveal more similar effects. Our results are compatible with the skill biased technological change, rapid rise in the integration of trade and financial markets as well as explanations related to the increase of the remunerative package of top executives.

What are the conditions for good innovation results? A fuzzy-set approach for European Union

Innovation is one of the main concerns of European Union countries since the beginning of the century. Despite failing to reach their targets, innovation remains a priority because innovation enables countries to achieve better economic performance. This study analyzes the relation between the level of innovation and the economic effects and applies a fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis to study the relation between six conditions and two different outcomes. The data comes from the Union Innovation Scoreboard. The study finds that research systems, linkages and entrepreneurship, and intellectual assets are necessary conditions for the outcomes of a high level of innovation and positive economic effects. The main sufficient condition for both outcomes is a good research system.

A fuzzy clustering approach to a demand response model

This paper proposes a novel demand response model using a fuzzy subtractive cluster approach. The model development provides support to domestic consumer decisions on controllable loads management, considering consumers’ consumption needs and the appropriate load shape or rescheduling in order to achieve possible economic benefits. The model based on fuzzy subtractive clustering method considers clusters of domestic consumption covering an adequate consumption range. Analysis of different scenarios is presented considering available electric power and electric energy prices. Simulation results are presented and conclusions of the proposed demand response model are discussed.

Conservation Agriculture and its contribution to the achievement of agri-environmental and economic challenges in Europe

Conservation Agriculture is an ecosystem approach to farming capable of providing solutions for numerous of the agri-environmental concerns in Europe. Certainly, most of the challenges addressed in the Common Agriculture Policy (CAP) could be tackled through Conservation Agriculture (CA). Not only the agri-environmental ones, but also those concerning farmer and rural communities’ prosperity. The optimisation of inputs and similar yields than conventional tillage, make Conservation Agriculture a profitable system compared to the tillage based agriculture. Whereas this sustainable agricultural system was conceived for protecting agrarian soils from its degradation, the numerous collateral benefits that emanate from soil conservation, i.e., climate change mitigation and adaptation, have raised Conservation Agriculture as one of the global emerging agrosciences, being adopted by an increasing number of farmers worldwide, including Europe.

A new approach for computing a flood vulnerability index using cluster analysis

A Flood Vulnerability Index (FloodVI) was developed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and a new aggregation method based on Cluster Analysis (CA). PCA simplifies a large number of variables into a few uncorrelated factors representing the social, economic, physical and environmental dimensions of vulnerability. CA groups areas that have the same characteristics in terms of vulnerability into vulnerability classes. The grouping of the areas determines their classification contrary to other aggregation methods in which the areas' classification determines their grouping. While other aggregation methods distribute the areas into classes, in an artificial manner, by imposing a certain probability for an area to belong to a certain class, as determined by the assumption that the aggregation measure used is normally distributed, CA does not constrain the distribution of the areas by the classes. FloodVI was designed at the neighbourhood level and was applied to the Portuguese municipality of Vila Nova de Gaia where several flood events have taken place in the recent past. The FloodVI sensitivity was assessed using three different aggregation methods: the sum of component scores, the first component score and the weighted sum of component scores. The results highlight the sensitivity of the FloodVI to different aggregation methods. Both sum of component scores and weighted sum of component scores have shown similar results. The first component score aggregation method classifies almost all areas as having medium vulnerability and finally the results obtained using the CA show a distinct differentiation of the vulnerability where hot spots can be clearly identified. The information provided by records of previous flood events corroborate the results obtained with CA, because the inundated areas with greater damages are those that are identified as high and very high vulnerability areas by CA. This supports the fact that CA provides a reliable FloodVI.

Impact of Public Debt on Economic Growth in Advanced Economies

This paper examines the impact of public debt on the economic growth in advanced economies over a period of 1946 to 2009, using an econometric approach. The findings suggested an inverse relationship between public debt and economic growth in advanced economies. These relationships were found to be significant as well. Model results also show that the real GDP growth rate does not decline sharply whether the public debt-to-GDP ratio is lower than 220%. The public debt-to-GDP ratio elasticity of the real growth rate shows that an increase of 1% in public debt/GDP category above 120% decreases the real GDP growth rate in 1.13%. The negative effect of public debt is only stronger on the real GDP growth rate in advanced economies when the public debt-to-GDP ratio is above 220%. Finally, these findings lead us to reassess the austerity agenda, and the governments should devise new strategies for public debt management in advanced economies, taking into account their economic and financial performance.

A fuzzy clustering approach to a demand response model

This paper proposes a novel demand response model using a fuzzy subtractive cluster approach. The model development provides support to domestic consumer decisions on controllable loads management, considering consumers’ consumption needs and the appropriate load shape or rescheduling in order to achieve possible economic benefits. The model based on fuzzy subtractive clustering method considers clusters of domestic consumption covering an adequate consumption range. Analysis of different scenarios is presented considering available electric power and electric energy prices. Simulation results are presented and conclusions of the proposed demand response model are discussed.

Cork oak transplant: A new reality? A Physiological Approach to maximize sucess rate.

Cork oak tree (Quercus suber L.), in Portugal, is considered the national tree and have special demands and legal protection when dealing with silviculture management (pruning, debarking, thinning). Being a species of slow growth, cork oak transplanting procedures can be a valuable asset either from the economic or ecological rationales to relocate trees, re-populate areas affected by high tree mortality, increase tree density to control erosion on montado ecosystems or landscape design. This study focuses the impacts and physiological responses of ten juvenile rain fed cork oak trees (with diameter at breast height between 6 and 16cm), when subjected to transplant operations. The work was conducted in a cork oak woodland experimental plot at the campus of the University of Évora (SW Portugal), during the year of 2015. Tree’s transplants were performed with a truck-mounted hydraulic spade transplanter coupled with a proposed methodology to maximize tree survival rates, addressing techniques to limit canopy transpiration and to improve root systems prior to transplant. Tree ecophysiological indicators (sap flow, leaf water potentials and stomatal conductance) were monitored comprising the periods before and after transplant operations, and water stress avoidance practices were established to promote post-transplant tree status recovery, including irrigation to match average daily accumulated sap flow. Transplant operations were considered successful when the tree's water uptake inferred from sap flow exhibited a high correlation with solar radiation and returned to its undisturbed or pre-transplant water potential gradients in the following 2 to 3 weeks. The post-transplant tree nourishment follow up included permanent sap flow measurements and identified the time elapsed after transplantation from which the tree recovers its normal transpiration thresholds and response. Our results suggest that by following the proposed methodology the sampled cork oak trees exhibited a transplant success rate of 90%.