[Ressenya del llibre] Susann Fischer: The Catalan Clitic System. A Diachronic Perspective on its Syntax and Phonology (Mouton de Gruyter, Berlín,2002)

Comentari al llibre de Susann Fischer, 'The Catalan Clitic System: A Diachronic Perspective on its Syntax and Phonology', que segons les autores de la ressenya constitueix una bona introducció a un tema de gran interès per als estudis històrics: la posició dels pronoms àtons en català i en altres llengües romàniques

The effects of information and communication technologies on the banking sector and the payments system

This dissertation studies the effects of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) on the banking sector and the payments system. It provides insight into how technology-induced changes occur, by exploring both the nature and scope of main technology innovations and evidencing their economic implications for banks and payment systems. Some parts in the dissertation are descriptive. They summarise the main technological developments in the field of finance and link them to economic policies. These parts are complemented with sections of the study that focus on assessing the extent of technology application to banking and payment activities. Finally, it includes also some work which borrows from the economic literature on banking. The need for an interdisciplinary approach arises from the complexity of the topic and the rapid path of change to which it is subject. The first chapter provides an overview of the influence of developments in ICT on the evolution of financial services and international capital flows. We include main indicators and discuss innovation in the financial sector, exchange rates and international capital flows. The chapter concludes with impact analysis and policy options regarding the international financial architecture, some monetary policy issues and the role of international institutions. The second chapter is a technology assessment study that focuses on the relationship between technology and money. The application of technology to payments systems is transforming the way we use money and, in some instances, is blurring the definition of what constitutes money. This chapter surveys the developments in electronic forms of payment and their relationship to the banking system. It also analyses the challenges posed by electronic money for regulators and policy makers, and in particular the opportunities created by two simultaneous processes: the Economic and Monetary Union and the increasing use of electronic payment instruments. The third chapter deals with the implications of developments in ICT on relationship banking. The financial intermediation literature explains relationship banking as a type of financial intermediation characterised by proprietary information and multiple interactions with customers. This form of banking is important for the financing of small and medium-sized enterprises. We discuss the effects of ICT on the banking sector as a whole and then apply these developments to the case of relationship banking. The fourth chapter is an empirical study of the effects of technology on the banking business, using a sample of data from the Spanish banking industry. The design of the study is based on some of the events described in the previous chapters, and also draws from the economic literature on banking. The study shows that developments in information management have differential effects on wholesale and retail banking activities. Finally, the last chapter is a technology assessment study on electronic payments systems in Spain and the European Union. It contains an analysis of existing payment systems and ongoing or planned initiatives in Spain. It forms part of a broader project comprising a series of country-specific analyses covering ten European countries. The main issues raised across the countries serve as the starting point to discuss implications of the development of electronic money for regulation and policies, and in particular, for monetary-policy making.

Development, implementation and evaluation of an activated sludge supervisory system for the Granollers WWTP

La present tesi pretén recollir l'experiència viscuda en desenvolupar un sistema supervisor intel·ligent per a la millora de la gestió de plantes depuradores d'aigües residuals., implementar-lo en planta real (EDAR Granollers) i avaluar-ne el funcionament dia a dia amb situacions típiques de la planta. Aquest sistema supervisor combina i integra eines de control clàssic de les plantes depuradores (controlador automàtic del nivell d'oxigen dissolt al reactor biològic, ús de models descriptius del procés...) amb l'aplicació d'eines del camp de la intel·ligència artificial (sistemes basats en el coneixement, concretament sistemes experts i sistemes basats en casos, i xarxes neuronals). Aquest document s'estructura en 9 capítols diferents. Hi ha una primera part introductòria on es fa una revisió de l'estat actual del control de les EDARs i s'explica el perquè de la complexitat de la gestió d'aquests processos (capítol 1). Aquest capítol introductori juntament amb el capítol 2, on es pretén explicar els antecedents d'aquesta tesi, serveixen per establir els objectius d'aquest treball (capítol 3). A continuació, el capítol 4 descriu les peculiaritats i especificitats de la planta que s'ha escollit per implementar el sistema supervisor. Els capítols 5 i 6 del present document exposen el treball fet per a desenvolupar el sistema basat en regles o sistema expert (capítol 6) i el sistema basat en casos (capítol 7). El capítol 8 descriu la integració d'aquestes dues eines de raonament en una arquitectura multi nivell distribuïda. Finalment, hi ha una darrer capítol que correspon a la avaluació (verificació i validació), en primer lloc, de cadascuna de les eines per separat i, posteriorment, del sistema global en front de situacions reals que es donin a la depuradora

The predictability of extratropical storm tracks and the sensitivity of their prediction to the observing system

A new method for assessing forecast skill and predictability that involves the identification and tracking of extratropical cyclones has been developed and implemented to obtain detailed information about the prediction of cyclones that cannot be obtained from more conventional analysis methodologies. The cyclones were identified and tracked along the forecast trajectories, and statistics were generated to determine the rate at which the position and intensity of the forecasted storms diverge from the analyzed tracks as a function of forecast lead time. The results show a higher level of skill in predicting the position of extratropical cyclones than the intensity. They also show that there is potential to improve the skill in predicting the position by 1 - 1.5 days and the intensity by 2 - 3 days, via improvements to the forecast model. Further analysis shows that forecasted storms move at a slower speed than analyzed storms on average and that there is a larger error in the predicted amplitudes of intense storms than the weaker storms. The results also show that some storms can be predicted up to 3 days before they are identified as an 850-hPa vorticity center in the analyses. In general, the results show a higher level of skill in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) than the Southern Hemisphere (SH); however, the rapid growth of NH winter storms is not very well predicted. The impact that observations of different types have on the prediction of the extratropical cyclones has also been explored, using forecasts integrated from analyses that were constructed from reduced observing systems. A terrestrial, satellite, and surface-based system were investigated and the results showed that the predictive skill of the terrestrial system was superior to the satellite system in the NH. Further analysis showed that the satellite system was not very good at predicting the growth of the storms. In the SH the terrestrial system has significantly less skill than the satellite system, highlighting the dominance of satellite observations in this hemisphere. The surface system has very poor predictive skill in both hemispheres.

The effect of doubled CO2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system. II: Changing ENSO regimes

Integrations of a fully-coupled climate model with and without flux adjustments in the equatorial oceans are performed under 2×CO2 conditions to explore in more detail the impact of increased greenhouse gas forcing on the monsoon-ENSO system. When flux adjustments are used to correct some systematic model biases, ENSO behaviour in the modelled future climate features distinct irregular and periodic (biennial) regimes. Comparison with the observed record yields some consistency with ENSO modes primarily based on air-sea interaction and those dependent on basinwide ocean wave dynamics. Simple theory is also used to draw analogies between the regimes and irregular (stochastically forced) and self-excited oscillations respectively. Periodic behaviour is also found in the Asian-Australian monsoon system, part of an overall biennial tendency of the model under these conditions related to strong monsoon forcing and increased coupling between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) thus serves as a useful descriptor for the coupled monsoon-ENSO system in this case. The presence of obvious regime changes in the monsoon-ENSO system on interdecadal timescales, when using flux adjustments, suggests there may be greater uncertainty in projections of future climate, although further modelling studies are required to confirm the realism and cause of such changes.

The effect of doubled CO2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system. I: Mean response and interannual variability

The impact of doubled CO2 concentration on the Asian summer monsoon is studied using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Both the mean seasonal precipitation and interannual monsoon variability are found to increase in the future climate scenario presented. Systematic biases in current climate simulations of the coupled system prevent accurate representation of the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection, of prime importance for seasonal prediction and for determining monsoon interannual variability. By applying seasonally varying heat flux adjustments to the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean surface in the future climate simulation, some assessment can be made of the impact of systematic model biases on future climate predictions. In simulations where the flux adjustments are implemented, the response to climate change is magnified, with the suggestion that systematic biases may be masking the true impact of increased greenhouse gas forcing. The teleconnection between ENSO and the Asian summer monsoon remains robust in the future climate, although the Indo-Pacific takes on more of a biennial character for long periods of the flux-adjusted simulation. Assessing the teleconnection across interdecadal timescales shows wide variations in its amplitude, despite the absence of external forcing. This suggests that recent changes in the observed record cannot be distinguished from internal variations and as such are not necessarily related to climate change.

Deep Convective System Evolution over Africa and the Tropical Atlantic

In the tropical African and neighboring Atlantic region there is a strong contrast in the properties of deep convection between land and ocean. Here, satellite radar observations are used to produce a composite picture of the life cycle of convection in these two regions. Estimates of the broadband thermal flux from the geostationary Meteosat-8 satellite are used to identify and track organized convective systems over their life cycle. The evolution of the system size and vertical extent are used to define five life cycle stages (warm and cold developing, mature, cold and warm dissipating), providing the basis for the composite analysis of the system evolution. The tracked systems are matched to overpasses of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite, and a composite picture of the evolution of various radar and lightning characteristics is built up. The results suggest a fundamental difference in the convective life cycle between land and ocean. African storms evolve from convectively active systems with frequent lightning in their developing stages to more stratiform conditions as they dissipate. Over the Atlantic, the convective fraction remains essentially constant into the dissipating stages, and lightning occurrence peaks late in the life cycle. This behavior is consistent with differences in convective sustainability in land and ocean regions as proposed in previous studies. The area expansion rate during the developing stages of convection is used to provide an estimate of the intensity of convection. Reasonable correlations are found between this index and the convective system lifetime, size, and depth.

Development and illustrative outputs of the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS), a multi-institutional modular integrated assessment approach for modelling climate change.

This paper describes the development and first results of the “Community Integrated Assessment System” (CIAS), a unique multi-institutional modular and flexible integrated assessment system for modelling climate change. Key to this development is the supporting software infrastructure, SoftIAM. Through it, CIAS is distributed between the community of institutions which has each contributed modules to the CIAS system. At the heart of SoftIAM is the Bespoke Framework Generator (BFG) which enables flexibility in the assembly and composition of individual modules from a pool to form coupled models within CIAS, and flexibility in their deployment onto the available software and hardware resources. Such flexibility greatly enhances modellers’ ability to re-configure the CIAS coupled models to answer different questions, thus tracking evolving policy needs. It also allows rigorous testing of the robustness of IA modelling results to the use of different component modules representing the same processes (for example, the economy). Such processes are often modelled in very different ways, using different paradigms, at the participating institutions. An illustrative application to the study of the relationship between the economy and the earth’s climate system is provided.

Predicted soil organic carbon stocks and changes in Jordan between 2000 and 2030 made using the GEFSOC modelling system

Estimates of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and changes under different land use systems can help determine vulnerability to land degradation. Such information is important for countries in and areas with high susceptibility to desertification. SOC stocks, and predicted changes between 2000 and 2030, were determined at the national scale for Jordan using The Global Environment Facility Soil Organic Carbon (GEFSOC) Modelling System. For the purpose of this study, Jordan was divided into three natural regions (The Jordan Valley, the Uplands and the Badia) and three developmental regions (North, Middle and South). Based on this division, Jordan was divided into five zones (based on the dominant land use): the Jordan Valley, the North Uplands, the Middle Uplands, the South Uplands and the Badia. This information was merged using GIS, along with a map of rainfall isohyets, to produce a map with 498 polygons. Each of these was given a unique ID, a land management unit identifier and was characterized in terms of its dominant soil type. Historical land use data, current land use and future land use change scenarios were also assembled, forming major inputs of the modelling system. The GEFSOC Modelling System was then run to produce C stocks in Jordan for the years 1990, 2000 and 2030. The results were compared with conventional methods of estimating carbon stocks, such as the mapping based SOTER method. The results of these comparisons showed that the model runs are acceptable, taking into consideration the limited availability of long-term experimental soil data that can be used to validate them. The main findings of this research show that between 2000 and 2030, SOC may increase in heavily used areas under irrigation and will likely decrease in grazed rangelands that cover most of Jordan giving an overall decrease in total SOC over time if the land is indeed used under the estimated forms of land use. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.