Comparison of an ELISA and an LC/MS/MS method for measuring tacrolimus concentrations and making dosage decisions in transplant recipients

This study compared an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) to a liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC/MS/MS) technique for measurement of tacrolimus concentrations in adult kidney and liver transplant recipients, and investigated how assay choice influenced pharmacokinetic parameter estimates and drug dosage decisions. Tacrolimus concentrations measured by both ELISA and LC/MS/MS from 29 kidney (n = 98 samples) and 27 liver (n = 97 samples) transplant recipients were used to evaluate the performance of these methods in the clinical setting. Tacrolimus concentrations measured by the two techniques were compared via regression analysis. Population pharmacokinetic models were developed independently using ELISA and LC/MS/MS data from 76 kidney recipients. Derived kinetic parameters were used to formulate typical dosing regimens for concentration targeting. Dosage recommendations for the two assays were compared. The relation between LC/MS/MS and ELISA measurements was best described by the regression equation ELISA = 1.02 . (LC/MS/MS) + 0.14 in kidney recipients, and ELISA = 1.12 . (LC/MS/MS) - 0.87 in liver recipients. ELISA displayed less accuracy than LC/MS/MS at lower tacrolimus concentrations. Population pharmacokinetic models based on ELISA and LC/MS/MS data were similar with residual random errors of 4.1 ng/mL and 3.7 ng/mL, respectively. Assay choice gave rise to dosage prediction differences ranging from 0% to 30%. ELISA measurements of tacrolimus are not automatically interchangeable with LC/MS/MS values. Assay differences were greatest in adult liver recipients, probably reflecting periods of liver dysfunction and impaired biliary secretion of metabolites. While the majority of data collected in this study suggested assay differences in adult kidney recipients were minimal, findings of ELISA dosage underpredictions of up to 25% in the long term must be investigated further.

Evaluation of various pre-treatments for the dehydration of banana and selection of suitable drying models

The thin-layer drying behaviour of bananas in a beat pump dehumidifier dryer was examined. Four pre-treatments (blanching, chilling, freezing and combined blanching and freezing) were applied to the bananas, which were dried at 50 degreesC with an air velocity of 3.1 m s(-1) and with the relative humidity of the inlet air of 10-35%. Three drying models, the simple model, the two-term exponential model and the Page model were examined. All models were evaluated using three statistical measures, correlation coefficient, root means square error, and mean absolute percent error. Moisture diffusivity was calculated based on the diffusion equation for an infinite cylindrical shape using the slope method. The rate of drying was higher for the pre-treatments involving freezing. The sample which was blanched only did not show any improvement in drying rate. In fact, a longer drying time resulted due to water absorption during blanching. There was no change in the rate for the chilled sample compared with the control. While all models closely fitted the drying data, the simple model showed greatest deviation from the experimental results. The two-term exponential model was found to be the best model for describing the drying curves of bananas because its parameters represent better the physical characteristics of the drying process. Moisture diffusivities of bananas were in the range 4.3-13.2 x 10(-10) m(2)s(-1). (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

The Limits of Rational Choice: New Institutionalism in the Test Bed of Central Banking Politics in Australia

This paper tests the explanatory capacities of different versions of new institutionalism by examining the Australian case of a general transition in central banking practice and monetary politics: namely, the increased emphasis on low inflation and central bank independence. Standard versions of rational choice institutionalism largely dominate the literature on the politics of central banking, but this approach (here termed RC1) fails to account for Australian empirics. RC1 has a tendency to establish actor preferences exogenously to the analysis; actors' motives are also assumed a priori; actor's preferences are depicted in relatively static, ahistorical terms. And there is the tendency, even a methodological requirement, to assume relatively simple motives and preference sets among actors, in part because of the game theoretic nature of RC1 reasoning. It is possible to build a more accurate rational choice model by re-specifying and essentially updating the context, incentives and choice sets that have driven rational choice in this case. Enter RC2. However, this move subtly introduces methodological shifts and new theoretical challenges. By contrast, historical institutionalism uses an inductive methodology. Compared with deduction, it is arguably better able to deal with complexity and nuance. It also utilises a dynamic, historical approach, and specifies (dynamically) endogenous preference formation by interpretive actors. Historical institutionalism is also able to more easily incorporate a wider set of key explanatory variables and incorporate wider social aggregates. Hence, it is argued that historical institutionalism is the preferred explanatory theory and methodology in this case.

Prospective independent validation of APACHE III models in an Australian tertiary adult intensive care unit

Evaluation of the performance of the APACHE III (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) ICU (intensive care unit) and hospital mortality models at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane is reported. Prospective collection of demographic, diagnostic, physiological, laboratory, admission and discharge data of 5681 consecutive eligible admissions (1 January 1995 to 1 January 2000) was conducted at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, a metropolitan Australian tertiary referral medical/surgical adult ICU. ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve areas for the APACHE III ICU mortality and hospital mortality models demonstrated excellent discrimination. Observed ICU mortality (9.1%) was significantly overestimated by the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (10.1%), but did not significantly differ from the prediction of the generic APACHE III model (8.6%). In contrast, observed hospital mortality (14.8%) agreed well with the prediction of the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (14.6%), but was significantly underestimated by the unadjusted APACHE III model (13.2%). Calibration curves and goodness-of-fit analysis using Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics, demonstrated that calibration was good with the unadjusted APACHE III ICU mortality model, and the APACHE III hospital mortality model adjusted for hospital characteristics. Post hoc analysis revealed a declining annual SMR (standardized mortality rate) during the study period. This trend was present in each of the non-surgical, emergency and elective surgical diagnostic groups, and the change was temporally related to increased specialist staffing levels. This study demonstrates that the APACHE III model performs well on independent assessment in an Australian hospital. Changes observed in annual SMR using such a validated model support an hypothesis of improved survival outcomes 1995-1999.

Practical and economic advantages of choice feeding systems for laying poultry

Poultry can be managed under different feeding systems, depending on the husbandry skills and the feed available. These systems include the following: (1) a complete dry feed offered as a mash ad libitum; (2) the same feed offered as pellets or crumbles ad libitum; (3) a complete feed with added whole grain; (4) a complete wet feed given once or twice a day; (5) a complete feed offered on a restricted basis; (6) choice feeding. Of all these, an interesting alternative to offering complete diets is choice feeding which can be applied on both a small or large commercial scale. Under choice feeding or free-choice feeding birds are usually offered a choice between three types of feedstuffs: (a) an energy source (e.g. maize, rice bran, sorghum or wheat); (b) a protein source (e.g. soyabean meal, meat meal, fish meal or coconut meal) plus vitamins and minerals and (c), in the case of laying hens, calcium in granular form (i.e. oyster-shell grit). This system differs from the modern commercial practice of offering a complete diet comprising energy and protein sources, ground and mixed together. Under the complete diet system, birds are mainly only able to exercise their appetite for energy. When the environmental temperature varies, the birds either over- or under-consume protein and calcium. The basic principle behind practising choice feeding with laying hens is that individual hens are able to select from the various feed ingredients on offer and compose their own diet, according to their actual needs and production capacity. A choice-feeding system is of particular importance to small poultry producers in developing countries, such as Indonesia, because it can substantially reduce the cost of feed. The system is flexible and can be constructed in such a way that the various needs of a flock of different breeds, including village chickens, under different climates can be met. The system also offers a more effective way to use home-produced grain, such as maize, and by-products, such as rice bran, in developing countries. Because oyster-shell grit is readily available in developing countries at lower cost than limestone, the use of cheaper oyster-shell grit can further benefit small-holders in these countries. These benefits apart, simpler equipment suffices when designing and building a feed mixer on the farm, and transport costs are lower. If whole (unground) grain is used, the intake of which is accompanied by increased efficiency of feed utilisation, the costs of grinding, mixing and many of the handling procedures associated with mash and pellet preparation are eliminated. The choice feedstuffs can all be offered in the current feed distribution systems, either by mixing the ingredients first or by using a bulk bin divided into three compartments.

Language choice of the Foochows in Sarawak, Malaysia

This paper investigates the factors affecting the language choices of the Chinese Foochows of Sarawak, focusing in particular on how the use of the Foochow dialect vis-a`-vis English and other languages might potentially result in a shift in language allegiance away from Foochow. In the context of Sarawak, the Foochows are a substantial, cohesive and homogeneous Chinese ethnic group with a distinctive language and ethnic identity. One would predict that they would engage in extensive language maintenance behaviour. Instead, Foochows living in non-Foochow dominant areas do not seem to have sufficient attachment to the language to transmit it to the next generation. Is this because the Foochows consider that accommodating to communicative norms is more important than preserving their native language as an inherent symbol of their ethnic identity? Or is it the result of the Foochows’ insecurity about the prestige of the dialect and the status of the Foochow people? These issues of accommodation and language allegiance are discussed, based on interview and questionnaire data from 11 Foochow participants. This data set is part of a larger study on the language use of different ethnic groups in multilingual organisational settings in Sarawak.

Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction

It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic, systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.

Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

Cost comparison of hospital- and home-based treatment models for acute chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

This trial compared the cost of an integrated home-based care model with traditional inpatient care for acute chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). 25 patients with acute COPD were randomised to either home or hospital management following request for hospital admission. The acute care at home group costs per separation ($745, CI95% $595-$895, n = 13) were significantly lower (p < 0.01) than the hospital group ($2543, CI95% $1766-$3321, n = 12). There was an improvement in lung function in the hospital-managed group at the Outpatient Department review, decreased anxiety in the Emergency Department in the home-managed group and equal patient satisfaction with care delivery. Acute care at home schemes can substitute for usual hospital care for some patients without adverse effects, and potentially release resources. A funding model that allows adequate resource delivery to the community will be needed if there is a move to devolve acute care to community providers.

Cuticular hydrocarbons of Drosophila birchii and D-serrata: Identification and role in mate choice in D-serrata

The cuticular hydrocarbon compositions of two sympatric species of Australian Drosophila in the montium subgroup of the melanogaster group that use cuticular hydrocarbons in mate recognition have been characterized. Drosophila birchii has 34 components in greater than trace amounts, with a carbon number range of C-20 to C-33. Drosophila serrata has 21 components above trace level and a carbon number range of C-24 to C-31. These two species share eight hydrocarbon components, with all but two of them being monoenes. For both species, the (Z)-9-monoenes are the predominant positional isomer. The hydrocarbons of D. birchii are n-alkanes, n-alkenes (Z)-5-, (Z)-7-, (Z)-9-, and (Z)-11-), low to trace levels of homologous (Z,Z)-7,11- and (Z,Z)-9,13-dienes; and trace amounts of (Z,Z)-5,9- C-25:2, a major component of D. serrata. Only one methyl branched hydrocarbon was detected (2-methyl C-28), and it occurred at very low levels. The hydrocarbons of D. serrata are dominated by a homologous series of (Z,Z)-5,9-dienes, and notably, are characterized by the apparent absence of n-alkanes. Homologous series of (Z)-5-, (Z)-7-, and (Z)-9- alkenes are also present in D. serrata as well as 2-methyl alkanes. Drosophila serrata females display strong directional mate choice based on male cuticular hydrocarbons and prefer D. serrata males with higher relative abundances of the 2-methyl alkanes, but lower relative abundances of (Z,Z)-5,9- C-24:2 and (Z)-9-C-25:1.

The nonexistence of spurious solutions to discrete, two-point boundary value problems

We investigate difference equations which arise as discrete approximations to two-point boundary value problems for systems of second-order, ordinary differential equations. We formulate conditions under which all solutions to the discrete problem satisfy certain a priori bounds which axe independent of the step-size. As a result, the nonexistence of spurious solutions are guaranteed. Some existence and convergence theorems for solutions to the discrete problem are also presented. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fitting genetic models to twin data with binary and ordered categorical responses: A comparison of structural equation modelling and Bayesian hierarchical models

We compare Bayesian methodology utilizing free-ware BUGS (Bayesian Inference Using Gibbs Sampling) with the traditional structural equation modelling approach based on another free-ware package, Mx. Dichotomous and ordinal (three category) twin data were simulated according to different additive genetic and common environment models for phenotypic variation. Practical issues are discussed in using Gibbs sampling as implemented by BUGS to fit subject-specific Bayesian generalized linear models, where the components of variation may be estimated directly. The simulation study (based on 2000 twin pairs) indicated that there is a consistent advantage in using the Bayesian method to detect a correct model under certain specifications of additive genetics and common environmental effects. For binary data, both methods had difficulty in detecting the correct model when the additive genetic effect was low (between 10 and 20%) or of moderate range (between 20 and 40%). Furthermore, neither method could adequately detect a correct model that included a modest common environmental effect (20%) even when the additive genetic effect was large (50%). Power was significantly improved with ordinal data for most scenarios, except for the case of low heritability under a true ACE model. We illustrate and compare both methods using data from 1239 twin pairs over the age of 50 years, who were registered with the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Twin Registry (ATR) and presented symptoms associated with osteoarthritis occurring in joints of the hand.