A zero-augmented gamma mixed model for longitudinal data with many zeros

In many occupational safety interventions, the objective is to reduce the injury incidence as well as the mean claims cost once injury has occurred. The claims cost data within a period typically contain a large proportion of zero observations (no claim). The distribution thus comprises a point mass at 0 mixed with a non-degenerate parametric component. Essentially, the likelihood function can be factorized into two orthogonal components. These two components relate respectively to the effect of covariates on the incidence of claims and the magnitude of claims, given that claims are made. Furthermore, the longitudinal nature of the intervention inherently imposes some correlation among the observations. This paper introduces a zero-augmented gamma random effects model for analysing longitudinal data with many zeros. Adopting the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) approach reduces the original problem to the fitting of two independent GLMMs. The method is applied to evaluate the effectiveness of a workplace risk assessment teams program, trialled within the cleaning services of a Western Australian public hospital.

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Mixture Densities for Binned and Truncated Multivariate Data

Binning and truncation of data are common in data analysis and machine learning. This paper addresses the problem of fitting mixture densities to multivariate binned and truncated data. The EM approach proposed by McLachlan and Jones (Biometrics, 44: 2, 571-578, 1988) for the univariate case is generalized to multivariate measurements. The multivariate solution requires the evaluation of multidimensional integrals over each bin at each iteration of the EM procedure. Naive implementation of the procedure can lead to computationally inefficient results. To reduce the computational cost a number of straightforward numerical techniques are proposed. Results on simulated data indicate that the proposed methods can achieve significant computational gains with no loss in the accuracy of the final parameter estimates. Furthermore, experimental results suggest that with a sufficient number of bins and data points it is possible to estimate the true underlying density almost as well as if the data were not binned. The paper concludes with a brief description of an application of this approach to diagnosis of iron deficiency anemia, in the context of binned and truncated bivariate measurements of volume and hemoglobin concentration from an individual's red blood cells.

A mixture model-based approach to the clustering of microarray expression data

Motivation: This paper introduces the software EMMIX-GENE that has been developed for the specific purpose of a model-based approach to the clustering of microarray expression data, in particular, of tissue samples on a very large number of genes. The latter is a nonstandard problem in parametric cluster analysis because the dimension of the feature space (the number of genes) is typically much greater than the number of tissues. A feasible approach is provided by first selecting a subset of the genes relevant for the clustering of the tissue samples by fitting mixtures of t distributions to rank the genes in order of increasing size of the likelihood ratio statistic for the test of one versus two components in the mixture model. The imposition of a threshold on the likelihood ratio statistic used in conjunction with a threshold on the size of a cluster allows the selection of a relevant set of genes. However, even this reduced set of genes will usually be too large for a normal mixture model to be fitted directly to the tissues, and so the use of mixtures of factor analyzers is exploited to reduce effectively the dimension of the feature space of genes. Results: The usefulness of the EMMIX-GENE approach for the clustering of tissue samples is demonstrated on two well-known data sets on colon and leukaemia tissues. For both data sets, relevant subsets of the genes are able to be selected that reveal interesting clusterings of the tissues that are either consistent with the external classification of the tissues or with background and biological knowledge of these sets.

Estimating Two-Stage Models for Genetic Influences on Alcohol, Tobacco or Drug Use Initiation and Dependence Vulnerability in Twin and Family Data

Genetic research on risk of alcohol, tobacco or drug dependence must make allowance for the partial overlap of risk-factors for initiation of use, and risk-factors for dependence or other outcomes in users. Except in the extreme cases where genetic and environmental risk-factors for initiation and dependence overlap completely or are uncorrelated, there is no consensus about how best to estimate the magnitude of genetic or environmental correlations between Initiation and Dependence in twin and family data. We explore by computer simulation the biases to estimates of genetic and environmental parameters caused by model misspecification when Initiation can only be defined as a binary variable. For plausible simulated parameter values, the two-stage genetic models that we consider yield estimates of genetic and environmental variances for Dependence that, although biased, are not very discrepant from the true values. However, estimates of genetic (or environmental) correlations between Initiation and Dependence may be seriously biased, and may differ markedly under different two-stage models. Such estimates may have little credibility unless external data favor selection of one particular model. These problems can be avoided if Initiation can be assessed as a multiple-category variable (e.g. never versus early-onset versus later onset user), with at least two categories measurable in users at risk for dependence. Under these conditions, under certain distributional assumptions., recovery of simulated genetic and environmental correlations becomes possible, Illustrative application of the model to Australian twin data on smoking confirmed substantial heritability of smoking persistence (42%) with minimal overlap with genetic influences on initiation.

Dental erosion in asthma: A case-control study from south east Queensland

Background: Asthma medication places patients at risk of dental erosion by reducing salivary protection against extrinsic or intrinsic acids. But patterns of lesions in asthmatics may differ from patterns in non-asthmatics, because gastro-oesophageal reflux (GOR) is found in 60 per cent of asthmatics. Methods: The lesions in 44 asthma cases were compared to those of age and sex match controls with no history of asthma or medications drawn from the dental records of 423 patients referred concerning excessive tooth wear. The subjects were 70 males age range 15 to 55 years and 18 females age range 18 to 45. Anamnestic clinical data were compared between the two groups. Models of all 88 subjects were examined by light microscopy, and wear patterns were recorded on permanent central incisor, canine, premolar and first molar teeth. Results: Clinical differences were a higher incidence of tooth hypersensitivity; xerostomia, salivary gland abnormalities, gastric complaints, and self induced vomiting in the cases. No differences were found between the cases and controls on citrus fruit and acid soft drink consumption. More occlusal erosion sites were found in cases, whereas more attrition sites were found in the controls. There were no significant differences in palatal erosion on maxillary anterior teeth found between cases and controls. Lingual erosion of the mandibular incisors, found only in GOR patients, was not observed. Conclusions: A higher incidence of erosion was found in asthmatics. Gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms were not associated with the sign of lingual mandibular incisor erosion. The clinical significance is that asthmatics are at risk of dental erosion from extrinsic acid, but GOR does not appear to contribute in a site-specific manner.

Augmentation of the assassin bug Pristhesancus plagipennis (Walker) (Hemiptera : Reduviidae) as a biological control agent for Helicoverpa spp. in cotton

Third-instar nymphs of the Australian assassin bug, Pristhesancus plagipennis (Walker), were released into cotton plots at two release densities and two crop growth stages to test their biological control potential. Release rates of 2 and 5 nymphs per metre row resulted in field populations of 0.51 and 1.38 nymphs per metre row, respectively, indicating that over 70% of nymphs died or emigrated within two weeks of release. Effective release rates of 1.38 nymphs per metre row reduced the number of Helicoverpa spp. larvae in the plots for a 7-week period. Crop yields were significantly greater in the plots to which P. plagipennis nymphs were released, with the effective release rate of 1.38 nymphs per metre row providing equivalent yields as insecticide treated plots. The data suggest that P. plagipennis has the capacity to reduce Helicoverpa spp. larvae densities in cotton crops when augmented through inundative release.

Development and survival of the diamondback moth (Lepidoptera : Plutellidae) at constant and alternating temperatures

Survival and development time from egg to adult emergence of the diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella (L.), were determined at 19 constant and 14 alternating temperature regimes from 4 to 40degreesC. Plutella xylostella developed successfully front egg to adult emergence at constant temperatures from 8 to 32degreesC. At temperatures from 4 to 6degreesC or from 34 to 40degreesC, partial or complete development of individual stages or instars was possible, with third and fourth instars having the widest temperature limits. The insect developed successfully from egg to adult emergence under alternating regimes including temperatures as low as 4degreesC or as high as 38degreesC. The degree-day model, the logistic equation, and the Wang model were used to describe the relationships between temperature and development rate at both constant and alternating temperatures. The degree-day model described the relationships well from 10 to 30degreesC. The logistic equation and the Wang model fit the data well at temperatures 32degreesC. Under alternating regimes, all three models gave good simulations of development in the mid-temperature range, but only the logistic equation gave close simulations in the low temperature range, and none gave close or consistent simulations in the high temperature range. The distribution of development time was described satisfactorily by a Weibull function. These rate and time distribution functions provide tools for simulating population development of P. xylostella over a wide range of temperature conditions.

Testing insect movement theory: empirical analysis of pest data routinely collected from agricultural crops

Observations of an insect's movement lead to theory on the insect's flight behaviour and the role of movement in the species' population dynamics. This theory leads to predictions of the way the population changes in time under different conditions. If a hypothesis on movement predicts a specific change in the population, then the hypothesis can be tested against observations of population change. Routine pest monitoring of agricultural crops provides a convenient source of data for studying movement into a region and among fields within a region. Examples of the use of statistical and computational methods for testing hypotheses with such data are presented. The types of questions that can be addressed with these methods and the limitations of pest monitoring data when used for this purpose are discussed. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Performance measurement in child protection

The increasing use of performance measurement by government means that child protection services are under pressure to demonstrate effectiveness in protecting children from harm and efficiency in the use of public funds to help children and families. From a policy perspective, the way performance measurement is conceptualised and implemented can have major consequences for service delivery. This paper examines key issues raised in the literature about performance measurement, the context for its introduction in child protection, how the concepts of effectiveness and efficiency are dealt with, how client outcomes are defined, and assumptions about 'good performance'. An overview of performance measurement in child protection in Australia is provided. The paper argues that a critical approach to performance measurement in child protection can contribute to improved service delivery to clients.

The mechanism of protection of molten magnesium by cover gas mixtures containing sulphur hexafluoride

Experimental studies have been undertaken, involving in situ observations of the interaction between cover gas mixtures and molten magnesium. It has been shown that, in the presence of sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), the contact angle between solid MgO and molten magnesium is reduced, resulting in the wetting of MgO by magnesium metal. In contrast, it was observed that the absence of SF6 results in a large contact angle, poor wetting of the MgO by magnesium metal and a non-adherent surface film. It is proposed that the formation of an adherent, protective surface film under a cover gas mixture containing SF6 is due to capillary forces acting within the film.

Phase equilibrium data and liquidus for the system "MnO"-CaO-(Al2O3+SiO2) at Al2O3/SiO2 of 0.41

Phase-equilibrium data and the liquidus for the system. "MnO"-CaO-(Al2O3-SiO2) at a manganese-rich alloy saturation have been determined in the temperature range from 1423 to 1723 K. The results are presented in the form of a pseudoternary section "MnO"-CaO-(Al2O3 + SiO2) with an Al2O3/SiO2 weight ratio of 0.41. The following primary phases are present in the range of conditions investigated:, 3Al(2)O(3).2SiO(2); SiO2; MnO.Al2O3-2SiO(2); (Mn,Ca)O.SiO2; 2(Mn,Ca)O.SiO2; MnO.Al2O3; (Mn,Ca)O; alpha-2CaO.SiO2; alpha'-2CaO.SiO2; 2CaO.Al2O3.SiO2; CaO.SiO2, and CaO.Al2O3.2SiO(2). The presence of alumina in this system is shown to have a significant effect on the liquidus compared to the system "MnO"-CaO-SiO2, leading to, the stabilization of the anorthite and gehlenite phases.