Influence of Surface Oceanographic Variability on Abundance of the Western Winter-Spring Cohort of Neon Flying Squid Ommastrephes Bartramii in the Nw Pacific Ocean

Abundance of the Ommastrephes bartramii winter-spring cohort fluctuated greatly from 1995 to 2004. To understand how abundance was influenced by sea surface conditions, we examined the variations in the proportion of thermal habitats with favourable sea surface temperature (SST). The SST data of both the spawning and feeding grounds were used to calculate the monthly proportion of favourable-SST areas (PFSSTA). Catch per fishing day per fishing boat (catch per unit effort, CPUE) of the Chinese mainland squid-jigging fleet was used as squid abundance index. The relationships between CPUE and monthly PFSSTA at spawning and feeding grounds were analyzed, and the relationship between CPUE and selected PFSSTA was quantified with a multiple linear regression model. Results showed that February PFSSTA at the spawning ground and August to November PFSSTA at the feeding ground could account for about 60% of the variability in O. bartramii abundance between 1995 and 2004, that February was the most important period influencing squid recruitment during the spawning season, and that feeding ground PFSSTA during the fishing season would influence CPUE by causing squid to aggregate. Our forecast model was found to perform well when we compared the model-predicted CPUEs and the average CPUEs observed during August to November in 2005 and 2006 from the Chinese squid-jigging fishery.

Association between temperament and physical activity in a population of minority women

Physical activity has been, and remains, a significant public health issue. Thus, increasing physical activity has been identified as a top priority according to Healthy People 2010. Various behavioral variables have been associated with participation in physical activity, including the Type A behavior pattern (TABP). This study was a secondary data analysis of the Women On The Move pilot study data and examined the relationship between Type A behavior with physical activity. The study population consisted of fifty-six (56) adult minority women 40 years of age and above. The Thurstone Activity Scale was adapted for use in this study to measure TABP. Physical activity behavior was measured using an accelerometer (Computer Science Application, [CSA]) and a physical activity diary. All study questions were examined using multiple linear regression analysis. In all analyses age, household income, and level of education were entered as covariates. The results found no association with TABP and exercise or physical activity. More research involving a larger, more active study population is recommended in order to more precisely determine the relationship of TABP and physical activity. ^

The role of LMX1B and PITX2 in anterior segment development and adult ocular function

Several congenital syndromes associated with anterior segment (AS) anomalies can lead to impaired vision and glaucoma, such as nail-patella syndrome (NPS), caused by mutations in the LIM homeodomain transcription factor LMX1B and Axenfeld-Rieger's syndrome (ARS), caused by mutations in the bicoid-related homeodomain transcription factor PITX2. Targeted mutations in lmx1b and pitx2 and RNA in situ analysis reveal that both genes are required for AS development and are co-expressed within the periocular mesenchyme, suggesting they participate in a shared genetic pathway. Lmx1b homozygous mutants display iris and corneal stroma hypoplasia, and defects in ciliary body formation. In contrast, pitx2 homozygous mutants exhibit a more severe phenotype: the AS chamber, corneal endothelium, and extraocular muscles (EOM) fail to develop. The absence of EOM in pitx2 mutants suggests pitx2 acts upstream of lmx1b, or that other lmx1b family members, such as lmx1a, can compensate for lmx1b function. Lmxla/lmx1b double homozygous mutants have a reduced capacity to generate EOM, implying that lmx1 gene products have a redundant function in EOM development and that lmx1 family members may act downstream of pitx2. However, analysis of pitx2 expression in the AS tissues of lmx1b mutants and reciprocal studies of lmx1b expression in pitx2 mutants indicate that these genes do not function in a simple linear pathway. Instead, lmx1b and pitx2 may regulate a shared set of downstream targets or both genes may work in parallel transcribing unique targets required for a common biological process. Ultrastructural analysis of lmx1b and pitx2 mutant corneas indicates that collagen fibrillogenesis is perturbed, revealing a common role for both genes in the deposition of extracellular matrix. Furthermore, lmx1b/pitx2 double heterozygotes develop corneal opacities not observed in single heterozygotes demonstrating that lmx1b and pitx2 genetically interact. Data suggests that defects in the basement membrane of the corneal endothelium underlie the opacities observed in double heterozygotes. Additionally, double heterozygotes develop anterior synechias that occlude the trabecular meshwork, potentially blocking aqueous humor drainage. These data suggest that lmx1b and pitx2 are responsible for ECM deposition in multiple cell types and imply that such defects may contribute to the glaucomas observed in NPS and ARS patients. ^

Comparison of multiple comparison methods for identifying differential gene expression in simulated and real papillary thyroid cancer microarray data

The difficulty of detecting differential gene expression in microarray data has existed for many years. Several correction procedures try to avoid the family-wise error rate in multiple comparison process, including the Bonferroni and Sidak single-step p-value adjustments, Holm's step-down correction method, and Benjamini and Hochberg's false discovery rate (FDR) correction procedure. Each multiple comparison technique has its advantages and weaknesses. We studied each multiple comparison method through numerical studies (simulations) and applied the methods to the real exploratory DNA microarray data, which detect of molecular signatures in papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) patients. According to our results of simulation studies, Benjamini and Hochberg step-up FDR controlling procedure is the best process among these multiple comparison methods and we discovered 1277 potential biomarkers among 54675 probe sets after applying the Benjamini and Hochberg's method to PTC microarray data.^

Rules to limit snacking in front of the TV and childhood BMI status: Findings from the "Fun Families Study"

Childhood obesity is increasing at epidemic rates, and thus there is a need to target appropriate childhood behaviors that contribute to obesity. Many factors contribute to childhood weight status. The aim of this study was to look at relationships between parental rules to limit snacking while watching television and childhood weight status. The study looked at the presence of the behavior of snacking while watching television yesterday, congruence between child- and parent-reported perception of the presence of rules to limit snacking while watching television, and parent-reported frequency of children following rules to limit snacking while watching television. The outcomes were examined in a multi-ethnic population of children ages 6 to 9 years in Southeast Texas.^ This study was a cross-sectional secondary data analysis of the pilot program, Fun Families. This study examined baseline data from 202 parent-child dyads, which included both the control ( N= 101) and intervention groups (N= 101). Data were gathered using validated questions that were administered to 6-9 year old children and their primary caregiver (referred to as parent in the rest of the discussion) in Southeast Texas, between 2006 and 2008. The main study outcome was childhood weight status based on CDC BMI-for-age categories. The independent variables are (1) the presence of parental rules to limit snacking while watching television, (2) the congruence between child and parent about the presence of rules to limit snacking while watching television, and (3) the parent-reported frequency of the child following the rules to limit snacking while watching television. Chi-Square analyses were used to determine if weight status was different for (1) children who reported rules to limit snacking yesterday, (2) children who reported snacking, (3) children whose parents reported rules were present, and (4) those who had rule congruence with the parents not. Chi-Square analyses also examined if there was a difference in the presence of snacking behavior for children who reported rules, for children whose parents reported rules, and for those children who had congruence about rules. Linear regressions were used to determine if any of the studied variables predicted increased weight status or reported snacking while watching television yesterday.^ This study found that child-reported snacking yesterday was significantly different for children who reported rules (4.12, p= 0.04). Child-reported rules was significantly associated with (p= -0.14, α= 0.04) and predicted child-reported snacking yesterday (R 2 0.021, p= 0.04, t= -2.04, 95% CI -0.31, -0.01). There was statistical significant incongruence between child and parent perception about the presence of rules to limit snacking yesterday (15.06, p= 0.00). For this population, parent education level was significantly associated with child-reported rules (r= -0.16, p= 0.02), child-reported snacking yesterday (r= -0.15, p= 0.04), and parent-reported frequency of child following rules to limit snacking (r= 0.29, p= -0.01). Parent-reported speaking another language besides English at home was significantly associated with parent-reported rules (r= 0.17, p= 0.02).^ Although the studied variables did not show any significant associations or predictors for childhood weight status, the significant discord between parent and child perception about the presence of rules provides valuable information to future interventions that aim to reduce childhood weight status. Including the creation and enforcement of parental rules in interventions to reduce childhood weight status will be beneficial for future studies.^

Low birthweight and the risk of developing subsequent high blood pressure and/or dyslipidemia in childhood

The association between birthweight and blood pressure (BP), and birthweight and serum lipid concentrations at age 7 through 11 years was examined in 1446 black and white children. The prevalence ratio (with 95% confidence interval) for being in the race-, sex- and age-specific upper decile of diastolic BP in children born with low birthweight (LBW, $<$2500 grams) versus children with birthweight $\geq$2500 grams was for black boys, 2.66 (1.24-5.70). In the other race-sex groups for diastolic BP, and in all race-sex groups for systolic BP this ratio did not differ from one. Among white boys with LBW, but not in the other race-sex groups, higher than expected percentages of subjects were in the highest decile group of triglyceride concentrations (0.01 $<$ p $<$ 0.05). The prevalence ratio was 2.42 (1.19-4.91). When prematures were excluded only more than expected white girls with LBW were in the highest decile group of triglyceride concentrations. The prevalence ratio was 3.23 (1.16-9.00). Prevalence ratios for triglyceride concentrations in black boys and girls, and for LDL/HDL-C ratio, cholesterol and VLDL-C concentrations in all race-sex groups were not different from one in analyses including and in those excluding prematures. Mean triglyceride concentrations stratified by tertiles of Quetelet Index, race and sex showed a strongly positive association between triglyceride concentrations and Quetelet Index, and in the upper tertile of the Quetelet Index an association between LBW and raised triglyceride concentrations. Multiple linear regression analyses showed that after adjusting for sex, race and age present Quetelet Index (p $<$ 0.001) is a much stronger predictor of systolic and diastolic BP, and also of LDL-C/HDL-C ratio and triglyceride concentrations in this age group than birthweight (p $>$ 0.05). Thus, an association between LBW and subsequent risk for elevated BP was confirmed for diastolic BP in black boys, but not for the other race-sex groups, and not for systolic BP in any group. This is the first study finding an association between LBW and elevated triglyceride concentrations in boys (white and black) and girls (white). A follow-up study to assess whether the findings can be confirmed at adult age is recommended. ^

The role of serotonin in depression and clotting in the coronary artery disease population

Background: The mechanisms underlying the relationship between depression and acute coronary syndrome (ACS) remain unclear. Platelet serotonin has been associated with both depression and coronary artery disease in stable outpatients. Understanding the association between depression and platelet serotonin, during ACS, may explain some of the acute cardiovascular events seen in some individuals with depression. ^ Objectives: This study was designed to evaluate whether levels of platelet serotonin, during ACS, differ between individuals who screen positive for depression and individuals who screen negative for depression and to determine if a dose-response relationship exists between depressive symptoms and platelet serotonin levels. ^ Methods: In this cross-sectional study, data was collected on 51 patients hospitalized for ACS. Multiple linear regression models were used to determine if a relationship exists between depression and platelet serotonin levels. ^ Results: Of the 51 ACS patients, 24 screened positive for depression and 27 screened negative for depression. Platelet serotonin levels were not significantly different between the depressed group (942.10 ± 461.3) and the non-depressed group (1192.41 ± 764.3) (p= .293 and β= -4.093) and a dose-response relationship between depressive symptoms and platelet serotonin levels was not found (p= .250 and β= -.254). ^ Discussion: In this study, a relationship between depression and platelet serotonin levels was not found. Future research should focus on gaining a better understanding of the variables that may influence platelet serotonin levels in the ACS population. ^

Identification of genetic variants that influence atherosclerosis in young persons

Atherosclerosis is widely accepted as a complex genetic phenotype and is the usual cause of cardiovascular disease, the world’s leading killer. Genetic factors have been proven to be important risk contributors for atherosclerosis and much work has been done to identify promising candidates that might play a role in the development of atherosclerosis. It is well known that many independent replications are needed to unequivocally establish a valid genotype-phenotype association across different populations before the findings are extended to clinical settings and to the expensive follow-up studies designed to identify causal genetic variants. Aiming to replicate the association with atherosclerosis in the Pathobiological Determinants of Atherosclerosis in Youth (PDAY) study, we assessed the relationship of 32 atherosclerosis candidate SNPs to atherosclerosis in the PDAY cohort, consisting of AA and EA young people aged 15-34 years who died of non-medical causes. Two association studies, a whole sample study and a 1:1 matched case control study were performed by use of multiple linear regression and logistic regression analyses, respectively. For the whole sample association study, 32 SNPs among 2,650 individuals (1,369 AA and 1,281 EA) were tested for the association with six early atherosclerosis phenotypes: abdominal aorta fatty streaks, abdominal aorta raised lesions, right coronary artery fatty streaks, right coronary artery raised lesions, thoracic aorta fatty streaks, and thoracic aorta raised lesions. For the matched case-control association study, 337 case-control paired samples were included; cases were chosen with the highest total raised lesion scores from the studied population, while controls were randomly selected from individuals that had no raised lesions and matched to cases by age, gender and race. Sixteen SNPs in 13 genes were found to be significantly associated with atherosclerosis in at least one of the PDAY association studies. Among these 16 findings: eight SNPs (rs9579646, rs6053733, rs3849150, rs10499903, rs2148079, rs5073691, rs10116277, and rs17228212) successfully replicated previous results, six SNPs (rs17222814, rs10811661, rs7028570, rs7291467, rs16996148 and rs10401969) were reported as new findings exclusive to our study, the last two of the 16 SNPs, rs501120 and rs6922269, showed either intriguing or conflicting result. SNP rs17222814 in ALOX5AP and SNP rs3849150 in LRRC18 were consistently associated with atherosclerosis in both prior and the two PDAY association studies. SNP rs3849150 was also identified to be highly correlated with a non-synonymous coding SNP, rs17772611, which may damage the protein (polyphen score = 0.996), suggesting that SNP rs17772611 may be the causal functional variant.^ In conclusion, our study added more support for the association of these candidate genes with atherosclerosis. SNPs rs3849150 and rs17772611 of LRRC18, as well as SNP rs17222814 of ALOX5AP, were the most significant findings from our study, and may be ranked among the best for further study.^

BAYESIAN STATISTICAL METHODS IN GENE-ENVIRONMENT AND GENE-GENE INTERACTION STUDIES

Complex diseases such as cancer result from multiple genetic changes and environmental exposures. Due to the rapid development of genotyping and sequencing technologies, we are now able to more accurately assess causal effects of many genetic and environmental factors. Genome-wide association studies have been able to localize many causal genetic variants predisposing to certain diseases. However, these studies only explain a small portion of variations in the heritability of diseases. More advanced statistical models are urgently needed to identify and characterize some additional genetic and environmental factors and their interactions, which will enable us to better understand the causes of complex diseases. In the past decade, thanks to the increasing computational capabilities and novel statistical developments, Bayesian methods have been widely applied in the genetics/genomics researches and demonstrating superiority over some regular approaches in certain research areas. Gene-environment and gene-gene interaction studies are among the areas where Bayesian methods may fully exert its functionalities and advantages. This dissertation focuses on developing new Bayesian statistical methods for data analysis with complex gene-environment and gene-gene interactions, as well as extending some existing methods for gene-environment interactions to other related areas. It includes three sections: (1) Deriving the Bayesian variable selection framework for the hierarchical gene-environment and gene-gene interactions; (2) Developing the Bayesian Natural and Orthogonal Interaction (NOIA) models for gene-environment interactions; and (3) extending the applications of two Bayesian statistical methods which were developed for gene-environment interaction studies, to other related types of studies such as adaptive borrowing historical data. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical mixture model framework that allows us to investigate the genetic and environmental effects, gene by gene interactions (epistasis) and gene by environment interactions in the same model. It is well known that, in many practical situations, there exists a natural hierarchical structure between the main effects and interactions in the linear model. Here we propose a model that incorporates this hierarchical structure into the Bayesian mixture model, such that the irrelevant interaction effects can be removed more efficiently, resulting in more robust, parsimonious and powerful models. We evaluate both of the 'strong hierarchical' and 'weak hierarchical' models, which specify that both or one of the main effects between interacting factors must be present for the interactions to be included in the model. The extensive simulation results show that the proposed strong and weak hierarchical mixture models control the proportion of false positive discoveries and yield a powerful approach to identify the predisposing main effects and interactions in the studies with complex gene-environment and gene-gene interactions. We also compare these two models with the 'independent' model that does not impose this hierarchical constraint and observe their superior performances in most of the considered situations. The proposed models are implemented in the real data analysis of gene and environment interactions in the cases of lung cancer and cutaneous melanoma case-control studies. The Bayesian statistical models enjoy the properties of being allowed to incorporate useful prior information in the modeling process. Moreover, the Bayesian mixture model outperforms the multivariate logistic model in terms of the performances on the parameter estimation and variable selection in most cases. Our proposed models hold the hierarchical constraints, that further improve the Bayesian mixture model by reducing the proportion of false positive findings among the identified interactions and successfully identifying the reported associations. This is practically appealing for the study of investigating the causal factors from a moderate number of candidate genetic and environmental factors along with a relatively large number of interactions. The natural and orthogonal interaction (NOIA) models of genetic effects have previously been developed to provide an analysis framework, by which the estimates of effects for a quantitative trait are statistically orthogonal regardless of the existence of Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE) within loci. Ma et al. (2012) recently developed a NOIA model for the gene-environment interaction studies and have shown the advantages of using the model for detecting the true main effects and interactions, compared with the usual functional model. In this project, we propose a novel Bayesian statistical model that combines the Bayesian hierarchical mixture model with the NOIA statistical model and the usual functional model. The proposed Bayesian NOIA model demonstrates more power at detecting the non-null effects with higher marginal posterior probabilities. Also, we review two Bayesian statistical models (Bayesian empirical shrinkage-type estimator and Bayesian model averaging), which were developed for the gene-environment interaction studies. Inspired by these Bayesian models, we develop two novel statistical methods that are able to handle the related problems such as borrowing data from historical studies. The proposed methods are analogous to the methods for the gene-environment interactions on behalf of the success on balancing the statistical efficiency and bias in a unified model. By extensive simulation studies, we compare the operating characteristics of the proposed models with the existing models including the hierarchical meta-analysis model. The results show that the proposed approaches adaptively borrow the historical data in a data-driven way. These novel models may have a broad range of statistical applications in both of genetic/genomic and clinical studies.

Measurements of gastropods shell sizes from 23 fossil and extant long-lived lakes

Aim: To investigate shell size variation among gastropod faunas of fossil and recent long-lived European lakes and discuss potential underlying processes. Location: 23 long-lived lakes of the Miocene to Recent of Europe. Methods: Based on a dataset of 1412 species of both fossil and extant lacustrine gastropods, we assessed differences in shell size in terms of characteristics of the faunas (species richness, degree of endemism, differences in family composition) and the lakes (surface area, latitude and longitude of lake centroid, distance to closest neighbouring lake) using multiple and linear regression models. Because of a strong species-area relationship, we used resampling to determine whether any observed correlation is driven by that relationship. Results: The regression models indicated size range expansion rather than unidirectional increase or decrease as the dominant pattern of size evolution. The multiple regression models for size range and maximum and minimum size were statistically significant, while the model with mean size was not. Individual contributions and linear regressions indicated species richness and lake surface area as best predictors for size changes. Resampling analysis revealed no significant effects of species richness on the observed patterns. The correlations are comparable across families of different size classes, suggesting a general pattern. Main conclusions: Among the chosen variables, species richness and lake surface area are the most robust predictors of shell size in long-lived lake gastropods. Although the most outstanding and attractive examples for size evolution in lacustrine gastropods derive from lakes with extensive durations, shell size appears to be independent of the duration of the lake as well as longevity of a species. The analogue of long-lived lakes as 'evolutionary islands' does not hold for developments of shell size because different sets of parameters predict size changes.

Sources and proxy potential of long chain alkyl diols in lacustrine environments

Long chain 1,13- and 1,15-alkyl diols form the base of a number of recently proposed proxies used for climate reconstruction. However, the sources of these lipids and environmental controls on their distribution are still poorly constrained. We have analyzed the long chain alkyl diol (LCD) composition of cultures of ten eustigmatophyte species, with three species from different families grown at various temperatures, to identify the effect of species composition and growth temperature on the LCD distribution. The results were compared with the LCD distribution of sixty-two lake surface sediments, and with previously reported LCD distributions from marine environments. The different families within the Eustigmatophyceae show distinct LCD patterns, with the freshwater family Eustigmataceae most closely resembling LCD distributions in both marine and lake environments. Unlike the other two eustigmatophyte families analyzed (Monodopsidaceae and Goniochloridaceae), C28 and C30 1,13-alkyl diols and C30 and C32 1,15-alkyl diols are all relatively abundant in the family Eustigmataceae, while the mono-unsaturated C32 1,15-alkyl diol was below detection limit. In contrast to the marine environment, LCD distributions in lakes did not show a clear relationship with temperature. The Long chain Diol Index (LDI), a proxy previously proposed for sea surface temperature reconstruction, showed a relatively weak correlation (R2 = 0.33) with mean annual air temperature used as an approximation for annual mean surface temperature of the lakes. A much-improved correlation (R2 = 0.74, p-value<0.001) was observed applying a multiple linear regression analysis between LCD distributions and lake temperatures reconstructed using branched tetraether lipid distributions. The obtained regression model provides good estimates of temperatures for cultures of the family Eustigmataceae, suggesting that algae belonging to this family have an important role as a source for LCDs in lacustrine environments, or, alternatively, that the main sources of LCDs are similarly affected by temperature as the Eustigmataceae. The results suggest that LCDs may have the potential to be applicable as a palaeotemperature proxy for lacustrine environments, although further calibration work is still required.

Differential Micro RNA Expression in PBMC from Multiple Sclerosis Patients

Differences in gene expression patterns have been documented not only in Multiple Sclerosis patients versus healthy controls but also in the relapse of the disease. Recently a new gene expression modulator has been identified: the microRNA or miRNA. The aim of this work is to analyze the possible role of miRNAs in multiple sclerosis, focusing on the relapse stage. We have analyzed the expression patterns of 364 miRNAs in PBMC obtained from multiple sclerosis patients in relapse status, in remission status and healthy controls. The expression patterns of the miRNAs with significantly different expression were validated in an independent set of samples. In order to determine the effect of the miRNAs, the expression of some predicted target genes of these were studied by qPCR. Gene interaction networks were constructed in order to obtain a co-expression and multivariate view of the experimental data. The data analysis and later validation reveal that two miRNAs (hsa-miR-18b and hsa-miR-599) may be relevant at the time of relapse and that another miRNA (hsa-miR-96) may be involved in remission. The genes targeted by hsa-miR-96 are involved in immunological pathways as Interleukin signaling and in other pathways as wnt signaling. This work highlights the importance of miRNA expression in the molecular mechanisms implicated in the disease. Moreover, the proposed involvement of these small molecules in multiple sclerosis opens up a new therapeutic approach to explore and highlight some candidate biomarker targets in MS

Uncertainties in the modal estimation from output-only data in civil structures

Cualquier estructura vibra según unas frecuencias propias definidas por sus parámetros modales (frecuencias naturales, amortiguamientos y formas modales). A través de las mediciones de la vibración en puntos clave de la estructura, los parámetros modales pueden ser estimados. En estructuras civiles, es difícil excitar una estructura de manera controlada, por lo tanto, las técnicas que implican la estimación de los parámetros modales sólo registrando su respuesta son de vital importancia para este tipo de estructuras. Esta técnica se conoce como Análisis Modal Operacional (OMA). La técnica del OMA no necesita excitar artificialmente la estructura, atendiendo únicamente a su comportamiento en servicio. La motivación para llevar a cabo pruebas de OMA surge en el campo de la Ingeniería Civil, debido a que excitar artificialmente con éxito grandes estructuras no sólo resulta difícil y costoso, sino que puede incluso dañarse la estructura. Su importancia reside en que el comportamiento global de una estructura está directamente relacionado con sus parámetros modales, y cualquier variación de rigidez, masa o condiciones de apoyo, aunque sean locales, quedan reflejadas en los parámetros modales. Por lo tanto, esta identificación puede integrarse en un sistema de vigilancia de la integridad estructural. La principal dificultad para el uso de los parámetros modales estimados mediante OMA son las incertidumbres asociadas a este proceso de estimación. Existen incertidumbres en el valor de los parámetros modales asociadas al proceso de cálculo (internos) y también asociadas a la influencia de los factores ambientales (externas), como es la temperatura. Este Trabajo Fin de Máster analiza estas dos fuentes de incertidumbre. Es decir, en primer lugar, para una estructura de laboratorio, se estudian y cuantifican las incertidumbres asociadas al programa de OMA utilizado. En segundo lugar, para una estructura en servicio (una pasarela de banda tesa), se estudian tanto el efecto del programa OMA como la influencia del factor ambiental en la estimación de los parámetros modales. Más concretamente, se ha propuesto un método para hacer un seguimiento de las frecuencias naturales de un mismo modo. Este método incluye un modelo de regresión lineal múltiple que permite eliminar la influencia de estos agentes externos. A structure vibrates according to some of its vibration modes, defined by their modal parameters (natural frequencies, damping ratios and modal shapes). Through the measurements of the vibration at key points of the structure, the modal parameters can be estimated. In civil engineering structures, it is difficult to excite structures in a controlled manner, thus, techniques involving output-only modal estimation are of vital importance for these structure. This techniques are known as Operational Modal Analysis (OMA). The OMA technique does not need to excite artificially the structure, this considers its behavior in service only. The motivation for carrying out OMA tests arises in the area of Civil Engineering, because successfully artificially excite large structures is difficult and expensive. It also may even damage the structure. The main goal is that the global behavior of a structure is directly related to their modal parameters, and any variation of stiffness, mass or support conditions, although it is local, is also reflected in the modal parameters. Therefore, this identification may be within a Structural Health Monitoring system. The main difficulty for using the modal parameters estimated by an OMA is the uncertainties associated to this estimation process. Thus, there are uncertainties in the value of the modal parameters associated to the computing process (internal) and the influence of environmental factors (external), such as the temperature. This Master’s Thesis analyzes these two sources of uncertainties. That is, firstly, for a lab structure, the uncertainties associated to the OMA program used are studied and quantified. Secondly, for an in-service structure (a stress-ribbon footbridge), both the effect of the OMA program and the influence of environmental factor on the modal parameters estimation are studied. More concretely, a method to track natural frequencies of the same mode has been proposed. This method includes a multiple linear regression model that allows to remove the influence of these external agents.

Análisis de sistemas dinámicos y complejos en la Liga Profesional de Balonmano de España = Complex and dynamical systems analysis in Spanish Professional Handball League

El propósito de esta tesis fue estudiar el rendimiento ofensivo de los equipos de balonmano de élite cuando se considera el balonmano como un sistema dinámico complejo no lineal. La perspectiva de análisis dinámica dependiente del tiempo fue adoptada para evaluar el rendimiento de los equipos durante el partido. La muestra general comprendió los 240 partidos jugados en la temporada 2011-2012 de la liga profesional masculina de balonmano de España (Liga ASOBAL). En el análisis posterior solo se consideraron los partidos ajustados (diferencia final de goles ≤ 5; n = 142). El estado del marcador, la localización del partido, el nivel de los oponentes y el periodo de juego fueron incorporados al análisis como variables situacionales. Tres estudios compusieron el núcleo de la tesis. En el primer estudio, analizamos la coordinación entre las series temporales que representan el proceso goleador a lo largo del partido de cada uno de los dos equipos que se enfrentan. Autocorrelaciones, correlaciones cruzadas, doble media móvil y transformada de Hilbert fueron usadas para el análisis. El proceso goleador de los equipos presentó una alta consistencia a lo largo de todos los partidos, así como fuertes modos de coordinación en fase en todos los contextos de juego. Las únicas diferencias se encontraron en relación al periodo de juego. La coordinación en los procesos goleadores de los equipos fue significativamente menor en el 1er y 2º periodo (0–10 min y 10–20 min), mostrando una clara coordinación creciente a medida que el partido avanzaba. Esto sugiere que son los 20 primeros minutos aquellos que rompen los partidos. En el segundo estudio, analizamos los efectos temporales (efecto inmediato, a corto y a medio plazo) de los tiempos muertos en el rendimiento goleador de los equipos. Modelos de regresión lineal múltiple fueron empleados para el análisis. Los resultados mostraron incrementos de 0.59, 1.40 y 1.85 goles para los periodos que comprenden la primera, tercera y quinta posesión de los equipos que pidieron el tiempo muerto. Inversamente, se encontraron efectos significativamente negativos para los equipos rivales, con decrementos de 0.50, 1.43 y 2.05 goles en los mismos periodos respectivamente. La influencia de las variables situacionales solo se registró en ciertos periodos de juego. Finalmente, en el tercer estudio, analizamos los efectos temporales de las exclusiones de los jugadores sobre el rendimiento goleador de los equipos, tanto para los equipos que sufren la exclusión (inferioridad numérica) como para los rivales (superioridad numérica). Se emplearon modelos de regresión lineal múltiple para el análisis. Los resultados mostraron efectos negativos significativos en el número de goles marcados por los equipos con un jugador menos, con decrementos de 0.25, 0.40, 0.61, 0.62 y 0.57 goles para los periodos que comprenden el primer, segundo, tercer, cuarto y quinto minutos previos y posteriores a la exclusión. Para los rivales, los resultados mostraron efectos positivos significativos, con incrementos de la misma magnitud en los mismos periodos. Esta tendencia no se vio afectada por el estado del marcador, localización del partido, nivel de los oponentes o periodo de juego. Los incrementos goleadores fueron menores de lo que se podría esperar de una superioridad numérica de 2 minutos. Diferentes teorías psicológicas como la paralización ante situaciones de presión donde se espera un gran rendimiento pueden ayudar a explicar este hecho. Los últimos capítulos de la tesis enumeran las conclusiones principales y presentan diferentes aplicaciones prácticas que surgen de los tres estudios. Por último, se presentan las limitaciones y futuras líneas de investigación. ABSTRACT The purpose of this thesis was to investigate the offensive performance of elite handball teams when considering handball as a complex non-linear dynamical system. The time-dependent dynamic approach was adopted to assess teams’ performance during the game. The overall sample comprised the 240 games played in the season 2011-2012 of men’s Spanish Professional Handball League (ASOBAL League). In the subsequent analyses, only close games (final goal-difference ≤ 5; n = 142) were considered. Match status, game location, quality of opposition, and game period situational variables were incorporated into the analysis. Three studies composed the core of the thesis. In the first study, we analyzed the game-scoring coordination between the time series representing the scoring processes of the two opposing teams throughout the game. Autocorrelation, cross-correlation, double moving average, and Hilbert transform were used for analysis. The scoring processes of the teams presented a high consistency across all the games as well as strong in-phase modes of coordination in all the game contexts. The only differences were found when controlling for the game period. The coordination in the scoring processes of the teams was significantly lower for the 1st and 2nd period (0–10 min and 10–20 min), showing a clear increasing coordination behavior as the game progressed. This suggests that the first 20 minutes are those that break the game-scoring. In the second study, we analyzed the temporal effects (immediate effect, short-term effect, and medium-term effect) of team timeouts on teams’ scoring performance. Multiple linear regression models were used for the analysis. The results showed increments of 0.59, 1.40 and 1.85 goals for the periods within the first, third and fifth timeout ball possessions for the teams that requested the timeout. Conversely, significant negative effects on goals scored were found for the opponent teams, with decrements of 0.59, 1.43 and 2.04 goals for the same periods, respectively. The influence of situational variables on the scoring performance was only registered in certain game periods. Finally, in the third study, we analyzed the players’ exclusions temporal effects on teams’ scoring performance, for the teams that suffer the exclusion (numerical inferiority) and for the opponents (numerical superiority). Multiple linear regression models were used for the analysis. The results showed significant negative effects on the number of goals scored for the teams with one less player, with decrements of 0.25, 0.40, 0.61, 0.62, and 0.57 goals for the periods within the previous and post one, two, three, four and five minutes of play. For the opponent teams, the results showed positive effects, with increments of the same magnitude in the same game periods. This trend was not affected by match status, game location, quality of opposition, or game period. The scoring increments were smaller than might be expected from a 2-minute numerical playing superiority. Psychological theories such as choking under pressure situations where good performance is expected could contribute to explain this finding. The final chapters of the thesis enumerate the main conclusions and underline the main practical applications that arise from the three studies. Lastly, limitations and future research directions are described.

Análisis cuantitativo y cualitativo de los momentos críticos en baloncesto = Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the critical moments in basketball

El MC en baloncesto es aquel fenómeno relacionado con el juego que presenta unas características particulares determinadas por la idiosincrasia de un equipo y puede afectar a los protagonistas y por ende al devenir del juego. En la presente Tesis se ha estudiado la incidencia del MC en Liga A.C.B. de baloncesto y para su desarrollo en profundidad se ha planteado dos investigaciones una cuantitativa y otra cualitativa cuya metodología se detalla a continuación: La investigación cuantitativa se ha basado en la técnica de estudio del “Performance analysis”, para ello se han estudiado cuatro temporadas de la Liga A.C.B. (del 2007/08 al 2010/11), tal y como refleja en la bibliografía consultada se han tomado como momentos críticos del juego a los últimos cinco minutos de partidos donde la diferencia de puntos fue de seis puntos y todos los Tiempos Extras disputados, de tal manera que se han estudiado 197 momentos críticos. La contextualización del estudio se ha hecho en función de la variables situacionales “game location” (local o visitante), “team quality” (mejores o peores clasificados) y “competition” (fases de LR y Playoff). Para la interpretación de los resultados se han realizado los siguientes análisis descriptivos: 1) Análisis Discriminante, 2) Regresión Lineal Múltiple; y 3) Análisis del Modelo Lineal General Multivariante. La investigación cualitativa se ha basado en la técnica de investigación de la entrevista semiestructurada. Se entrevistaron a 12 entrenadores que militaban en la Liga A.C.B. durante la temporada 2011/12, cuyo objetivo ha sido conocer el punto de vista que tiene el entrenador sobre el concepto del MC y que de esta forma pudiera dar un enfoque más práctico basado en su conocimiento y experiencia acerca de cómo actuar ante el MC en el baloncesto. Los resultados de ambas investigaciones coinciden en señalar la importancia del MC sobre el resultado final del juego. De igual forma, el concepto en sí entraña una gran complejidad por lo que se considera fundamental la visión científica de la observación del juego y la percepción subjetiva que presenta el entrenador ante el fenómeno, para la cual los aspectos psicológicos de sus protagonistas (jugadores y entrenadores) son determinantes. ABSTRACT The Critical Moment (CM) in basketball is a related phenomenon with the game that has particular features determined by the idiosyncrasies of a team and can affect the players and therefore the future of the game. In this Thesis we have studied the impact of CM in the A.C.B. League and from a profound development two investigations have been raised, quantitative and qualitative whose methodology is as follows: The quantitative research is based on the technique of study "Performance analysis", for this we have studied four seasons in the A.C.B. League (2007/08 to 2010/11), and as reflected in the literature the Critical Moments of the games were taken from the last five minutes of games where the point spread was six points and all overtimes disputed, such that 197 critical moments have been studied. The contextualization of the study has been based on the situational variables "game location" (home or away), "team quality" (better or lower classified) and "competition" (LR and Playoff phases). For the interpretation of the results the following descriptive analyzes were performed: 1) Discriminant Analysis, 2) Multiple Linear Regression Analysis; and 3) Analysis of Multivariate General Linear Model. Qualitative research is based on the technique of investigation of a semi-structured interview. 12 coaches who belonged to the A.C.B. League were interviewed in seasons 2011/12, which aimed to determine the point of view that the coach has on the CM concept and thus could give a more practical approach based on their knowledge and experience about how to deal with the CM in basketball. The results of both studies agree on the importance of the CM on the final outcome of the game. Similarly, the concept itself is highly complex so the scientific view of the observation of the game is considered essential as well as the subjective perception the coach presents before the phenomenon, for which the psychological aspects of their characters (players and coaches) are crucial.