When to start antiretroviral therapy in children aged 2-5 years: a collaborative causal modelling analysis of cohort studies from southern Africa

BACKGROUND There is limited evidence on the optimal timing of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in children 2-5 y of age. We conducted a causal modelling analysis using the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS-Southern Africa (IeDEA-SA) collaborative dataset to determine the difference in mortality when starting ART in children aged 2-5 y immediately (irrespective of CD4 criteria), as recommended in the World Health Organization (WHO) 2013 guidelines, compared to deferring to lower CD4 thresholds, for example, the WHO 2010 recommended threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm(3) or CD4 percentage (CD4%) <25%. METHODS AND FINDINGS ART-naïve children enrolling in HIV care at IeDEA-SA sites who were between 24 and 59 mo of age at first visit and with ≥1 visit prior to ART initiation and ≥1 follow-up visit were included. We estimated mortality for ART initiation at different CD4 thresholds for up to 3 y using g-computation, adjusting for measured time-dependent confounding of CD4 percent, CD4 count, and weight-for-age z-score. Confidence intervals were constructed using bootstrapping. The median (first; third quartile) age at first visit of 2,934 children (51% male) included in the analysis was 3.3 y (2.6; 4.1), with a median (first; third quartile) CD4 count of 592 cells/mm(3) (356; 895) and median (first; third quartile) CD4% of 16% (10%; 23%). The estimated cumulative mortality after 3 y for ART initiation at different CD4 thresholds ranged from 3.4% (95% CI: 2.1-6.5) (no ART) to 2.1% (95% CI: 1.3%-3.5%) (ART irrespective of CD4 value). Estimated mortality was overall higher when initiating ART at lower CD4 values or not at all. There was no mortality difference between starting ART immediately, irrespective of CD4 value, and ART initiation at the WHO 2010 recommended threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm(3) or CD4% <25%, with mortality estimates of 2.1% (95% CI: 1.3%-3.5%) and 2.2% (95% CI: 1.4%-3.5%) after 3 y, respectively. The analysis was limited by loss to follow-up and the unavailability of WHO staging data. CONCLUSIONS The results indicate no mortality difference for up to 3 y between ART initiation irrespective of CD4 value and ART initiation at a threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm(3) or CD4% <25%, but there are overall higher point estimates for mortality when ART is initiated at lower CD4 values. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Prognostic relevance of coronary collateral function: confounded or causal relationship?

OBJECTIVE To expand the limited information on the prognostic impact of quantitatively obtained collateral function in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) and to estimate causality of such a relation. DESIGN Prospective cohort study with long-term observation of clinical outcome. SETTING University Hospital. PATIENTS One thousand one hundred and eighty-one patients with chronic stable CAD undergoing 1771 quantitative, coronary pressure-derived collateral flow index measurements, as obtained during a 1-min coronary balloon occlusion (CFI is the ratio between mean distal coronary occlusive pressure and mean aortic pressure both subtracted by central venous pressure). Subgroup of 152 patients included in randomised trials on the longitudinal effect of different arteriogenic protocols on CFI. INTERVENTIONS Collection of long-term follow-up information on clinical outcome. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES All-cause mortality and major adverse cardiac events. RESULTS Cumulative 15-year survival rate was 48% in patients with CFI<0.25 and 65% in the group with CFI≥0.25 (p=0.0057). Cumulative 10-year survival rate was 75% in patients without arteriogenic therapy and 88% (p=0.0482) in the group with arteriogenic therapy and showing a significant increase in CFI at follow-up. By proportional hazard analysis, the following variables predicted increased all-cause mortality: age, low CFI, left ventricular end-diastolic pressure and number of vessels with CAD. CONCLUSIONS A well-functioning coronary collateral circulation independently predicts lowered mortality in patients with chronic CAD. This relation appears to be causal, because augmented collateral function by arteriogenic therapy is associated with prolonged survival.

Status and Causal Pathway Assessments Supporting River Basin Management

The European Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires a status assessment of all water bodies. If that status is deteriorated, the WFD urges the identification of its potential causes in order to be able to suggest appropriate management measures. The instrument of investigative monitoring allows for such identification, provided that appropriate tools are available to link the observed effects to causative stressors, while unravelling confounding factors. In this chapter, the state of the art of status and causal pathway assessment is described for the major stressors responsible for the deterioration of European water bodies, i.e. toxicity, acidification, salinisation, eutrophication and oxygen depletion, parasites and pathogens, invasive alien species, hydromorphological degradation, changing water levels as well as sediments and suspended matter. For each stressor, an extensive description of the potential effects on the ecological status is given. Secondly, stressor-specific abiotic and biotic indicators are described that allow for a first indication of probable causes, based on the assessment of available monitoring data. Subsequently, more advanced tools for site-specific confirmation of stressors at hand are discussed. Finally, the local status assessments are put into the perspective of the risk for downstream stretches in order to be able to prioritise stressors and to be able to select appropriate measures for mitigation of the risks resulting from these stressors.

Gene Discovery in Nonsyndromic Cleft Lip with or without Cleft Palate

Nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate (NSCLP), a common, complex orofacial birth defect that affects approximately 4,000 newborns each year in the United States, is caused by both genetic and environmental factors. Orofacial clefts affect the mouth and nose, causing severe deformity of the face, which require medical, dental and speech therapies. Despite having substantial genetic liability, less than 25% of the genetic contribute to NSCLP has been identified. The studies described in this thesis were performed to identify genes that contribute to NSCLP and to demonstrate the role of these genes in normal craniofacial development. Using genome scan and candidate gene approaches, novel associations with NSCLP were identified. These include MYH9 (7 SNPs, 0.009≤p<0.05), Wnt3A (4 SNPs, 0.001≤p≤0.005), Wnt11 (2 SNPs, 0.001≤p≤0.01) and CRISPLD2 (4 SNPs, 0.001≤p<0.05). The most interesting findings were for CRISPLD2. This gene is expressed in the fused mouse palate at E17.5. In zebrafish, crispld2 localized to the craniofacial region by one day post fertilization. Morpholino knockdown of crispld2 resulted in a lower survival rates and altered neural crest cell (NCC) clustering. Because NCCs form the tissues that populate the craniofacies, this NCC abnormality resulted in cartilage abnormalities of the jaw including fewer ceratobranchial cartilages forming the lower jaw (three pairs compared to five) and broader craniofacies compared to wild-type zebrafish. These findings suggest that the CRISPLD2 gene plays an important role in normal craniofacial development and perturbation of this gene in humans contributes to orofacial clefting. Overall, these results are important because they contribute to our understanding of normal craniofacial development and orofacial clefting etiology, information that can be used to develop better methods to diagnose, counsel and potentially treat NSCLP patients.

The equine DNAH3 gene: SNP discovery and exclusion of an involvement in recurrent airway obstruction (RAO) in European Warmblood horses

Recurrent airway obstruction is one of the most common airway diseases affecting mature horses. Increased bronchoalveolar mucus, neutrophil accumulation in airways, and airway obstruction are the main features of this disease. Mucociliary clearance is a key component of pulmonary defense mechanisms. Cilia are the motile part of this system and a complex linear array of dynein motors is responsible for their motility by moving along the microtubules in the axonemes of cilia and flagella. We previously detected a QTL for RAO on ECA 13 in a half-sib family of European Warmblood horses. The gene encoding DNAH3 is located in the peak of the detected QTL and encodes a dynein subunit. Therefore, we analysed this gene as a positional and functional candidate gene for RAO. In a mutation analysis of all 62 exons we detected 53 new polymorphisms including 7 non-synonymous variants. We performed an association study using 38 polymorphisms in a cohort of 422 animals. However, after correction for multiple testing we did not detect a significant association of any of these polymorphisms with RAO (P>0.05). Therefore, it seems unlikely that variants at the DNAH3 gene are responsible for the RAO QTL in European Warmblood horses.