Planning for project control through risk analysis:a case of petroleum pipeline laying

Projects that are exposed to uncertain environments can be effectively controlled with the application of risk analysis during the planning stage. The Analytic Hierarchy Process, a multiattribute decision-making technique, can be used to analyse and assess project risks which are objective or subjective in nature. Among other advantages, the process logically integrates the various elements in the planning process. The results from risk analysis and activity analysis are then used to develop a logical contingency allowance for the project through the application of probability theory. The contingency allowance is created in two parts: (a) a technical contingency, and (b) a management contingency. This provides a basis for decision making in a changing project environment. Effective control of the project is made possible by the limitation of the changes within the monetary contingency allowance for the work package concerned, and the utilization of the contingency through proper appropriation. The whole methodology is applied to a pipeline-laying project in India, and its effectiveness in project control is demonstrated.

Clinical monitoring of ocular physiology using digital image analysis

Aim: To examine the use of image analysis to quantify changes in ocular physiology. Method: A purpose designed computer program was written to objectively quantify bulbar hyperaemia, tarsal redness, corneal staining and tarsal staining. Thresholding, colour extraction and edge detection paradigms were investigated. The repeatability (stability) of each technique to changes in image luminance was assessed. A clinical pictorial grading scale was analysed to examine the repeatability and validity of the chosen image analysis technique. Results: Edge detection using a 3 × 3 kernel was found to be the most stable to changes in image luminance (2.6% over a +60 to -90% luminance range) and correlated well with the CCLRU scale images of bulbar hyperaemia (r = 0.96), corneal staining (r = 0.85) and the staining of palpebral roughness (r = 0.96). Extraction of the red colour plane demonstrated the best correlation-sensitivity combination for palpebral hyperaemia (r = 0.96). Repeatability variability was <0.5%. Conclusions: Digital imaging, in conjunction with computerised image analysis, allows objective, clinically valid and repeatable quantification of ocular features. It offers the possibility of improved diagnosis and monitoring of changes in ocular physiology in clinical practice. © 2003 British Contact Lens Association. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of Naïve Bayesian sequential analysis to primary care optometry

The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of circularity, comorbidity, prevalence and presentation variation on the accuracy of differential diagnoses made in optometric primary care using a modified form of naïve Bayesian sequential analysis. No such investigation has ever been reported before. Data were collected for 1422 cases seen over one year. Positive test outcomes were recorded for case history (ethnicity, age, symptoms and ocular and medical history) and clinical signs in relation to each diagnosis. For this reason only positive likelihood ratios were used for this modified form of Bayesian analysis that was carried out with Laplacian correction and Chi-square filtration. Accuracy was expressed as the percentage of cases for which the diagnoses made by the clinician appeared at the top of a list generated by Bayesian analysis. Preliminary analyses were carried out on 10 diagnoses and 15 test outcomes. Accuracy of 100% was achieved in the absence of presentation variation but dropped by 6% when variation existed. Circularity artificially elevated accuracy by 0.5%. Surprisingly, removal of Chi-square filtering increased accuracy by 0.4%. Decision tree analysis showed that accuracy was influenced primarily by prevalence followed by presentation variation and comorbidity. Analysis of 35 diagnoses and 105 test outcomes followed. This explored the use of positive likelihood ratios, derived from the case history, to recommend signs to look for. Accuracy of 72% was achieved when all clinical signs were entered. The drop in accuracy, compared to the preliminary analysis, was attributed to the fact that some diagnoses lacked strong diagnostic signs; the accuracy increased by 1% when only recommended signs were entered. Chi-square filtering improved recommended test selection. Decision tree analysis showed that accuracy again influenced primarily by prevalence, followed by comorbidity and presentation variation. Future work will explore the use of likelihood ratios based on positive and negative test findings prior to considering naïve Bayesian analysis as a form of artificial intelligence in optometric practice.

Peptide binding to the HLA-DRB1 supertype:a proteochemometrics analysis

A proteochemometrics approach was applied to a set of 2666 peptides binding to 12 HLA-DRB1 proteins. Sequences of both peptide and protein were described using three z-descriptors. Cross terms accounting for adjacent positions and for every second position in the peptides were included in the models, as well as cross terms for peptide/protein interactions. Models were derived based on combinations of different blocks of variables. These models had moderate goodness of fit, as expressed by r2, which ranged from 0.685 to 0.732; and good cross-validated predictive ability, as expressed by q2, which varied from 0.678 to 0.719. The external predictive ability was tested using a set of 356 HLA-DRB1 binders, which showed an r2(pred) in the range 0.364-0.530. Peptide and protein positions involved in the interactions were analyzed in terms of hydrophobicity, steric bulk and polarity.

Management of Information on Program Flow Analysis

The article proposes the model of management of information about program flow analysis for conducting computer experiments with program transformations. It considers the architecture and context of the flow analysis subsystem within the framework of Specialized Knowledge Bank on Program Transformations and describes the language for presenting flow analysis methods in the knowledge bank.

Kinetic study of the pyrolysis of miscanthus and its acid hydrolysis residue by thermogravimetric analysis

The kinetic parameters of the pyrolysis of miscanthus and its acid hydrolysis residue (AHR) were determined using thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). The AHR was produced at the University of Limerick by treating miscanthus with 5 wt.% sulphuric acid at 175 °C as representative of a lignocellulosic acid hydrolysis product. For the TGA experiments, 3 to 6 g of sample, milled and sieved to a particle size below 250 μm, were placed in the TGA ceramic crucible. The experiments were carried out under non-isothermal conditions heating the samples from 50 to 900 °C at heating rates of 2.5, 5, 10, 17 and 25 °C/min. The activation energy (EA) of the decomposition process was determined from the TGA data by differential analysis (Friedman) and three isoconversional methods of integral analysis (Kissinger–Akahira–Sunose, Ozawa–Flynn–Wall, Vyazovkin). The activation energy ranged from 129 to 156 kJ/mol for miscanthus and from 200 to 376 kJ/mol for AHR increasing with increasing conversion. The reaction model was selected using the non-linear least squares method and the pre-exponential factor was calculated from the Arrhenius approximation. The results showed that the best fitting reaction model was the third order reaction for both feedstocks. The pre-exponential factor was in the range of 5.6 × 1010 to 3.9 × 10+ 13 min− 1 for miscanthus and 2.1 × 1016 to 7.7 × 1025 min− 1 for AHR.

Recognition on Finite Set of Events: Bayesian Analysis of Generalization Ability and Classification Tree Pruning

The problem of recognition on finite set of events is considered. The generalization ability of classifiers for this problem is studied within the Bayesian approach. The method for non-uniform prior distribution specification on recognition tasks is suggested. It takes into account the assumed degree of intersection between classes. The results of the analysis are applied for pruning of classification trees.

Analysis of Security in Archiving

Some basic types of archiving programs are described in the paper in addition to their advantages and disadvantages with respect to the analysis of security in archiving. Analysis and appraisal are performed on the results obtained during the described experiments.

A Knowledge-Oriented Technology of System-Objective Analysis and Modelling of Business-Systems

A new original method and CASE-tool of system analysis and modelling are represented. They are for the first time consistent with the requirements of object-oriented technology of informational systems design. They essentially facilitate the construction of organisational systems models and increase the quality of the organisational designing and basic technological processes of object application developing.

Cluster Analysis of Some Clases of Objects by Application of the Test Recognition Algorithms

The paper treats the task for cluster analysis of a given assembly of objects on the basis of the information contained in the description table of these objects. Various methods of cluster analysis are briefly considered. Heuristic method and rules for classification of the given assembly of objects are presented for the cases when their division into classes and the number of classes is not known. The algorithm is checked by a test example and two program products (PP) – learning systems and software for company management. Analysis of the results is presented.

Technological innovation in electronic inventory solutions:an analysis of patent data

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the technological development of electronic inventory solutions from perspective of patent analysis. We first applied the international patent classification to classify the top categories of data processing technologies and their corresponding top patenting countries. Then we identified the core technologies by the calculation of patent citation strength and standard deviation criterion for each patent. To eliminate those core innovations having no reference relationships with the other core patents, relevance strengths between core technologies were evaluated also. Our findings provide market intelligence not only for the research and development community, but for the decision making of advanced inventory solutions.

Hough Transform Approach to Identification of Flare Stars in Multi-exposure Plate Images

ACM Computing Classification System (1998): I.2.8 , I.2.10, I.5.1, J.2.

An analysis of police interview discourse and its role(s) in the judicial process

This study analyses the current role of police-suspect interview discourse in the England & Wales criminal justice system, with a focus on its use as evidence. A central premise is that the interview should be viewed not as an isolated and self-contained discursive event, but as one link in a chain of events which together constitute the criminal justice process. It examines: (1) the format changes undergone by interview data after the interview has taken place, and (2) how the other links in the chain – both before and after the interview – affect the interview-room interaction itself. It thus examines the police interview as a multi-format, multi-purpose and multi-audience mode of discourse. An interdisciplinary and multi-method discourse-analytic approach is taken, combining elements of conversation analysis, pragmatics, sociolinguistics and critical discourse analysis. Data from a new corpus of recent police-suspect interviews, collected for this study, are used to illustrate previously unaddressed problems with the current process, mainly in the form of two detailed case studies. Additional data are taken from the case of Dr. Harold Shipman. The analysis reveals several causes for concern, both in aspects of the interaction in the interview room, and in the subsequent treatment of interview material as evidence, especially in the light of s.34 of the Criminal Justice and Public Order Act 1994. The implications of the findings for criminal justice are considered, along with some practical recommendations for improvements. Overall, this study demonstrates the need for increased awareness within the criminal justice system of the many linguistic factors affecting interview evidence.

Principles of Extremum and Application to some Problems of Analysis

AMS subject classification: 41A17, 41A50, 49Kxx, 90C25.