An integrated rail track degradation model

There has been a worldwide trend to increase axle loads and train speeds. This means that railway track degradation will be accelerated, and track maintenance costs will be increased significantly. There is a need to investigate the consequences of increasing traffic load. The aim of the research is to develop a model for the analysis of physical degradation of railway tracks in response to changes in traffic parameters, especially increased axle loads and train speeds. This research has developed an integrated track degradation model (ITDM) by integrating several models into a comprehensive framework. Mechanistic relationships for track degradation hav~ ?een used wherever possible in each of the models contained in ITDM. This overcc:mes the deficiency of the traditional statistical track models which rely heavily on historical degradation data, which is generally not available in many railway systems. In addition statistical models lack the flexibility of incorporating future changes in traffic patterns or maintenance practices. The research starts with reviewing railway track related studies both in Australia and overseas to develop a comprehensive understanding of track performance under various traffic conditions. Existing railway related models are then examined for their suitability for track degradation analysis for Australian situations. The ITDM model is subsequently developed by modifying suitable existing models, and developing new models where necessary. The ITDM model contains four interrelated submodels for rails, sleepers, ballast and subgrade, and track modulus. The rail submodel is for rail wear analysis and is developed from a theoretical concept. The sleeper submodel is for timber sleepers damage prediction. The submodel is developed by modifying and extending an existing model developed elsewhere. The submodel has also incorporated an analysis for the likelihood of concrete sleeper cracking. The ballast and subgrade submodel is evolved from a concept developed in the USA. Substantial modifications and improvements have been made. The track modulus submodel is developed from a conceptual method. Corrections for more global track conditions have been made. The integration of these submodels into one comprehensive package has enabled the interaction between individual track components to be taken into account. This is done by calculating wheel load distribution with time and updating track conditions periodically in the process of track degradation simulation. A Windows-based computer program ~ssociated with ITDM has also been developed. The program enables the user to carry out analysis of degradation of individual track components and to investigate the inter relationships between these track components and their deterioration. The successful implementation of this research has provided essential information for prediction of increased maintenance as a consequence of railway trackdegradation. The model, having been presented at various conferences and seminars, has attracted wide interest. It is anticipated that the model will be put into practical use among Australian railways, enabling track maintenance planning to be optimized and potentially saving Australian railway systems millions of dollars in operating costs.

Tactical driver lane change model using forward search

This paper describes the development and evaluation of a tactical lane change model using the forward search algorithm, for use in a traffic simulator. The tactical lane change model constructs a set of possible choices of near-term maneuver sequences available to the driver and selects the lane change action at the present time to realize the best maneuver plan. Including near term maneuver planning in the driver behavior model can allow a better representation of the complex interactions in situations such as a weaving section and high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lane systems where drivers must weave across several lanes in order to access the HOV lanes. To support the investigation, a longitudinal control model and a basic lane change model were also analyzed. The basic lane change model is similar to those used by today's commonly-used traffic simulators. Parameters in all models were best-fit estimated for selected vehicles from a real-world freeway vehicle trajectory data set. The best-fit estimation procedure minimizes the discrepancy between the model vehicle and real vehicle's trajectories. With the best fit parameters, the proposed tactical lane change model gave a better overall performance for a greater number of cases than the basic lane change model.

Empirical investigation of interactive highway safety design model accident prediction algorithm : Rural intersections

One major gap in transportation system safety management is the ability to assess the safety ramifications of design changes for both new road projects and modifications to existing roads. To fulfill this need, FHWA and its many partners are developing a safety forecasting tool, the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM). The tool will be used by roadway design engineers, safety analysts, and planners throughout the United States. As such, the statistical models embedded in IHSDM will need to be able to forecast safety impacts under a wide range of roadway configurations and environmental conditions for a wide range of driver populations and will need to be able to capture elements of driving risk across states. One of the IHSDM algorithms developed by FHWA and its contractors is for forecasting accidents on rural road segments and rural intersections. The methodological approach is to use predictive models for specific base conditions, with traffic volume information as the sole explanatory variable for crashes, and then to apply regional or state calibration factors and accident modification factors (AMFs) to estimate the impact on accidents of geometric characteristics that differ from the base model conditions. In the majority of past approaches, AMFs are derived from parameter estimates associated with the explanatory variables. A recent study for FHWA used a multistate database to examine in detail the use of the algorithm with the base model-AMF approach and explored alternative base model forms as well as the use of full models that included nontraffic-related variables and other approaches to estimate AMFs. That research effort is reported. The results support the IHSDM methodology.

Developing a model of care to improve the health and well-being for Indigenous people receiving renal dialysis treatment

The high levels of end-stage renal disease among Indigenous Australians, particularly in remote areas of the country, are a serious public health concern. The magnitude of the problem is reflected in figures from the Australian and New Zealand Transplant and Dialysis Registry that show that Indigenous Australians experience end-stage renal disease at a rate almost 9–10 times higher than other non-Indigenous Australians. A majority of Indigenous Australians have to relocate to receive appropriate renal dialysis treatment. In some Australian states, renal treatment is based on self-care dialysis which allows those Indigenous Australians to be treated back in their community. Evidence clearly shows that reuniting renal patients with community and family improves overall health and well-being for those Indigenous Australians. With the appropriate resources, training, and support, self-care management of renal dialysis treatment is an effective way for Indigenous people with end-stage renal failure to be treated at home. In this context, the study was used to gain insight and further understanding of the impact that end-stage renal disease and renal dialysis treatment has had on the lives of Indigenous community members. The study findings are from 14 individually interviewed people from South East Queensland. Data from the interviews were analysed using a combination of thematic and content analysis. The study methodology was based on qualitative data principles where the Indigenous community members were able to share their experiences and journeys living with end-stage renal disease. Many of the experiences and understanding closely relate to the renal disease pattern and the treatment with other outside influences, such as social, cultural, and environmental influences, all having an equal impact. Each community member’s experience with end-stage renal disease is unique; some manage with family and medical support, while others try to manage independently. From the study, community members who managed their renal dialysis treatment independently were much more aware of their renal health status. The study provides recommendations towards a model of care to improve the health and well-being is based on self-care and self-determination principles.

Adapting a generic BEAMnrc model of the BrainLAB m3 micro-multileaf collimator to simulate a local collimation device

This work is focussed on developing a commissioning procedure so that a Monte Carlo model, which uses BEAMnrc’s standard VARMLC component module, can be adapted to match a specific BrainLAB m3 micro-multileaf collimator (μMLC). A set of measurements are recommended, for use as a reference against which the model can be tested and optimised. These include radiochromic film measurements of dose from small and offset fields, as well as measurements of μMLC transmission and interleaf leakage. Simulations and measurements to obtain μMLC scatter factors are shown to be insensitive to relevant model parameters and are therefore not recommended, unless the output of the linear accelerator model is in doubt. Ultimately, this note provides detailed instructions for those intending to optimise a VARMLC model to match the dose delivered by their local BrainLAB m3 μMLC device.

Model interoperability in building information modelling

The exchange of design models in the design and construction industry is evolving away from 2-dimensional computer-aided design (CAD) and paper towards semantically-rich 3-dimensional digital models. This approach, known as Building Information Modelling (BIM), is anticipated to become the primary means of information exchange between the various parties involved in construction projects. From a technical perspective, the domain represents an interesting study in model-based interoperability, since the models are large and complex, and the industry is one in which collaboration is a vital part of business. In this paper, we present our experiences with issues of model-based interoperability in exchanging building information models between various tools, and in implementing tools which consume BIM models, particularly using the industry standard IFC data modelling format. We report on the successes and challenges in these endeavours, as the industry endeavours to move further towards fully digitised information exchange.

Generalised self-efficacy in relation to the life transitions of adult learners in a university setting : towards a narrative constructivist model of self-regulation

This paper demonstrates a model of self-regulation based on a qualitative research project with adult learners undertaking an undergraduate degree. The narrative about the participant’s life transitions, co-constructed with the researcher, yielded data about their generalised self-efficacy and resulted in a unique self-efficacy narrative for each participant. A model of self-regulation is proposed with potential applications for coaching, counselling and psychotherapy. A narrative method was employed to construct narratives about an individual’s self-efficacy in relation to their experience of learning and life transitions. The method involved a cyclical and iterative process using qualitative interviews to collect life history data from participants. In addition, research participants completed reflective homework tasks, and this data was included in the participant’s narratives. A highly collaborative method entailed narratives being co-constructed by researcher and research participants as the participants were guided in reflecting on their experience in relation to learning and life transitions; the reflection focused on behaviour, cognitions and emotions that constitute a sense of self-efficacy. The analytic process used was narrative analysis, in which life is viewed as constructed and experienced through the telling and retelling of stories and hence the analysis is the creation of a coherent and resonant story. The method of constructing self-efficacy narratives was applied to a sample of mature aged students starting an undergraduate degree. The research outcomes confirmed a three-factor model of self-efficacy, comprising three interrelated stages: initiating action, applying effort, and persistence in overcoming difficulties. Evaluation of the research process by participants suggested that they had gained an enhanced understanding of self-efficacy from their participation in the research process, and would be able to apply this understanding to their studies and other endeavours in the future. A model of self-regulation is proposed as a means for coaches, counsellors and psychotherapists working from a narrative constructivist perspective to assist clients facing life transitions by helping them generate selfefficacious cognitions, emotions and behaviour.

Validation of the MEASURE automobile emissions model : a statistical analysis

The Mobile Emissions Assessment System for Urban and Regional Evaluation (MEASURE) model provides an external validation capability for hot stabilized option; the model is one of several new modal emissions models designed to predict hot stabilized emission rates for various motor vehicle groups as a function of the conditions under which the vehicles are operating. The validation of aggregate measurements, such as speed and acceleration profile, is performed on an independent data set using three statistical criteria. The MEASURE algorithms have proved to provide significant improvements in both average emission estimates and explanatory power over some earlier models for pollutants across almost every operating cycle tested.