776 resultados para agent-based modelling


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“SOH see significant benefit in digitising its drawings and operation and maintenance manuals. Since SOH do not currently have digital models of the Opera House structure or other components, there is an opportunity for this national case study to promote the application of Digital Facility Modelling using standardized Building Information Models (BIM)”. The digital modelling element of this project examined the potential of building information models for Facility Management focusing on the following areas: • The re-usability of building information for FM purposes • BIM as an Integrated information model for facility management • Extendibility of the BIM to cope with business specific requirements • Commercial facility management software using standardised building information models • The ability to add (organisation specific) intelligence to the model • A roadmap for SOH to adopt BIM for FM The project has established that BIM – building information modelling - is an appropriate and potentially beneficial technology for the storage of integrated building, maintenance and management data for SOH. Based on the attributes of a BIM, several advantages can be envisioned: consistency in the data, intelligence in the model, multiple representations, source of information for intelligent programs and intelligent queries. The IFC – open building exchange standard – specification provides comprehensive support for asset and facility management functions, and offers new management, collaboration and procurement relationships based on sharing of intelligent building data. The major advantages of using an open standard are: information can be read and manipulated by any compliant software, reduced user “lock in” to proprietary solutions, third party software can be the “best of breed” to suit the process and scope at hand, standardised BIM solutions consider the wider implications of information exchange outside the scope of any particular vendor, information can be archived as ASCII files for archival purposes, and data quality can be enhanced as the now single source of users’ information has improved accuracy, correctness, currency, completeness and relevance. SOH current building standards have been successfully drafted for a BIM environment and are confidently expected to be fully developed when BIM is adopted operationally by SOH. There have been remarkably few technical difficulties in converting the House’s existing conventions and standards to the new model based environment. This demonstrates that the IFC model represents world practice for building data representation and management (see Sydney Opera House – FM Exemplar Project Report Number 2005-001-C-3, Open Specification for BIM: Sydney Opera House Case Study). Availability of FM applications based on BIM is in its infancy but focussed systems are already in operation internationally and show excellent prospects for implementation systems at SOH. In addition to the generic benefits of standardised BIM described above, the following FM specific advantages can be expected from this new integrated facilities management environment: faster and more effective processes, controlled whole life costs and environmental data, better customer service, common operational picture for current and strategic planning, visual decision-making and a total ownership cost model. Tests with partial BIM data – provided by several of SOH’s current consultants – show that the creation of a SOH complete model is realistic, but subject to resolution of compliance and detailed functional support by participating software applications. The showcase has demonstrated successfully that IFC based exchange is possible with several common BIM based applications through the creation of a new partial model of the building. Data exchanged has been geometrically accurate (the SOH building structure represents some of the most complex building elements) and supports rich information describing the types of objects, with their properties and relationships.

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One of the key issues facing public asset owners is the decision of refurbishing aged built assets. This decision requires an assessment of the “remaining service life” of the key components in a building. The remaining service life is significantly dependent upon the existing condition of the asset and future degradation patterns considering durability and functional obsolescence. Recently developed methods on Residual Service Life modelling, require sophisticated data that are not readily available. Most of the data available are in the form of reports prior to undertaking major repairs or in the form of sessional audit reports. Valuable information from these available sources can serve as bench marks for estimating the reference service life. The authors have acquired similar informations from a public asset building in Melbourne. Using these informations, the residual service life of a case study building façade has been estimated in this paper based on state-of-the-art approaches. These estimations have been evaluated against expert opinion. Though the results are encouraging it is clear that the state-of-the-art methodologies can only provide meaningful estimates provided the level and quality of data are available. This investigation resulted in the development of a new framework for maintenance that integrates the condition assessment procedures and factors influencing residual service life

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This paper proposes a novel relative entropy rate (RER) based approach for multiple HMM (MHMM) approximation of a class of discrete-time uncertain processes. Under different uncertainty assumptions, the model design problem is posed either as a min-max optimisation problem or stochastic minimisation problem on the RER between joint laws describing the state and output processes (rather than the more usual RER between output processes). A suitable filter is proposed for which performance results are established which bound conditional mean estimation performance and show that estimation performance improves as the RER is reduced. These filter consistency and convergence bounds are the first results characterising multiple HMM approximation performance and suggest that joint RER concepts provide a useful model selection criteria. The proposed model design process and MHMM filter are demonstrated on an important image processing dim-target detection problem.

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This paper presents a multi-objective optimization strategy for heavy truck suspension systems based on modified skyhook damping (MSD) control, which improves ride comfort and road-friendliness simultaneously. A four-axle heavy truck-road coupling system model was established using functional virtual prototype technology; the model was then validated through a ride comfort test. As the mechanical properties and time lag of dampers were taken into account, MSD control of active and semi-active dampers was implemented using Matlab/Simulink. Through co-simulations with Adams and Matlab, the effects of passive, semi-active MSD control, and active MSD control were analyzed and compared; thus, control parameters which afforded the best integrated performance were chosen. Simulation results indicated that MSD control improves a truck’s ride comfort and roadfriendliness, while the semi-active MSD control damper obtains road-friendliness comparable to the active MSD control damper.

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This paper reviews the main development of approaches to modelling urban public transit users’ route choice behaviour from 1960s to the present. The approaches reviewed include the early heuristic studies on finding the least cost transit route and all-or-nothing transit assignment, the bus common line problem and corresponding network representation methods, the disaggregate discrete choice models which are based on random utility maximization assumptions, the deterministic use equilibrium and stochastic user equilibrium transit assignment models, and the recent dynamic transit assignment models using either frequency or schedule based network formulation. In addition to reviewing past outcomes, this paper also gives an outlook into the possible future directions of modelling transit users’ route choice behaviour. Based on the comparison with the development of models for motorists’ route choice and traffic assignment problems in an urban road area, this paper points out that it is rewarding for transit route choice research to draw inspiration from the intellectual outcomes out of the road area. Particularly, in light of the recent advancement of modelling motorists’ complex road route choice behaviour, this paper advocates that the modelling practice of transit users’ route choice should further explore the complexities of the problem.

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The fracture healing process is modulated by the mechanical environment created by imposed loads and motion between the bone fragments. Contact between the fragments obviously results in a significantly different stress and strain environment to a uniform fracture gap containing only soft tissue (e.g. haematoma). The assumption of the latter in existing computational models of the healing process will hence exaggerate the inter-fragmentary strain in many clinically-relevant cases. To address this issue, we introduce the concept of a contact zone that represents a variable degree of contact between cortices by the relative proportions of bone and soft tissue present. This is introduced as an initial condition in a two-dimensional iterative finite element model of a healing tibial fracture, in which material properties are defined by the volume fractions of each tissue present. The algorithm governing the formation of cartilage and bone in the fracture callus uses fuzzy logic rules based on strain energy density resulting from axial compression. The model predicts that increasing the degree of initial bone contact reduces the amount of callus formed (periosteal callus thickness 3.1mm without contact, down to 0.5mm with 10% bone in contact zone). This is consistent with the greater effective stiffness in the contact zone and hence, a smaller inter-fragmentary strain. These results demonstrate that the contact zone strategy reasonably simulates the differences in the healing sequence resulting from the closeness of reduction.

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Building Information Modelling (BIM) is an information technology [IT] enabled approach to managing design data in the AEC/FM (Architecture, Engineering and Construction/ Facilities Management) industry. BIM enables improved interdisciplinary collaboration across distributed teams, intelligent documentation and information retrieval, greater consistency in building data, better conflict detection and enhanced facilities management. Despite the apparent benefits the adoption of BIM in practice has been slow. Workshops with industry focus groups were conducted to identify the industry needs, concerns and expectations from participants who had implemented BIM or were BIM “ready”. Factors inhibiting BIM adoption include lack of training, low business incentives, perception of lack of rewards, technological concerns, industry fragmentation related to uneven ICT adoption practices, contractual matters and resistance to changing current work practice. Successful BIM usage depends on collective adoption of BIM across the different disciplines and support by the client. The relationship of current work practices to future BIM scenarios was identified as an important strategy as the participants believed that BIM cannot be efficiently used with traditional practices and methods. The key to successful implementation is to explore the extent to which current work practices must change. Currently there is a perception that all work practices and processes must adopt and change for effective usage of BIM. It is acknowledged that new roles and responsibilities are emerging and that different parties will lead BIM on different projects. A contingency based approach to the problem of implementation was taken which relies upon integration of BIM project champion, procurement strategy, team capability analysis, commercial software availability/applicability and phase decision making and event analysis. Organizations need to understand: (a) their own work processes and requirements; (b) the range of BIM applications available in the market and their capabilities (c) the potential benefits of different BIM applications and their roles in different phases of the project lifecycle, and (d) collective supply chain adoption capabilities. A framework is proposed to support organizations selection of BIM usage strategies that meet their project requirements. Case studies are being conducted to develop the framework. The results of the preliminary design management case study is presented for contractor led BIM specific to the design and construct procurement strategy.

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This article presents one approach to addressing the important issue of interdisciplinarity in the primary school mathematics curriculum, namely, through realistic mathematical modelling problems. Such problems draw upon other disciplines for their contexts and data. The article initially considers the nature of modelling with complex systems and discusses how such experiences differ from existing problem-solving activities in the primary mathematics curriculum. Principles for designing interdisciplinary modelling problems are then addressed, with reference to two mathematical modelling problems— one based in the scientific domain and the other in the literary domain. Examples of the models children have created in solving these problems follow. A reflection on the differences in the diversity and sophistication of these models raises issues regarding the design of interdisciplinary modelling problems. The article concludes with suggested opportunities for generating multidisciplinary projects within the regular mathematics curriculum.

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In Web service based systems, new value-added Web services can be constructed by integrating existing Web services. A Web service may have many implementations, which are functionally identical, but have different Quality of Service (QoS) attributes, such as response time, price, reputation, reliability, availability and so on. Thus, a significant research problem in Web service composition is how to select an implementation for each of the component Web services so that the overall QoS of the composite Web service is optimal. This is so called QoS-aware Web service composition problem. In some composite Web services there are some dependencies and conflicts between the Web service implementations. However, existing approaches cannot handle the constraints. This paper tackles the QoS-aware Web service composition problem with inter service dependencies and conflicts using a penalty-based genetic algorithm (GA). Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and the scalability of the penalty-based GA.

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Vehicle detectors have been installed at approximately every 300 meters on each lane on Tokyo metropolitan expressway. Various traffic data such as traffic volume, average speed and time occupancy are collected by vehicle detectors. We can understand traffic characteristics of every point by comparing traffic data collected at consecutive points. In this study, we focused on average speed, analyzed road potential by operating speed during free-flow conditions, and identified latent bottlenecks. Furthermore, we analyzed effects for road potential by the rainfall level and day of the week. It’s expected that this method of analysis will be utilized for installation of ITS such as drive assist, estimation of parameters for traffic simulation and feedback to road design as congestion measures.

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The New Zealand green lipped mussel preparation Lyprinol is available without a prescription from a supermarket, pharmacy or Web. The Food and Drug Administration have recently warned Lyprinol USA about their extravagant anti-inflammatory claims for Lyprinol appearing on the web. These claims are put to thorough review. Lyprinol does have anti-inflammatory mechanisms, and has anti-inflammatory effects in some animal models of inflammation. Lyprinol may have benefits in dogs with arthritis. There are design problems with the clinical trials of Lyprinol in humans as an anti-inflammatory agent in osteoarthritis and rheumatoid arthritis, making it difficult to give a definite answer to how effective Lyprinol is in these conditions, but any benefit is small. Lyprinol also has a small benefit in atopic allergy. As anti-inflammatory agents, there is little to choose between Lyprinol and fish oil. No adverse effects have been reported with Lyprinol. Thus, although it is difficult to conclude whether Lyprinol does much good, it can be concluded that Lyprinol probably does no major harm.

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Modern enterprise knowledge management systems typically require distributed approaches and the integration of numerous heterogeneous sources of information. A powerful foundation for these tasks can be Topic Maps, which not only provide a semantic net-like knowledge representation means and the possibility to use ontologies for modelling knowledge structures, but also offer concepts to link these knowledge structures with unstructured data stored in files, external documents etc. In this paper, we present the architecture and prototypical implementation of a Topic Map application infrastructure, the ‘Topic Grid’, which enables transparent, node-spanning access to different Topic Maps distributed in a network.

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Traditionally, conceptual modelling of business processes involves the use of visual grammars for the representation of, amongst other things, activities, choices and events. These grammars, while very useful for experts, are difficult to understand by naive stakeholders. Annotations of such process models have been developed to assist in understanding aspects of these grammars via map-based approaches, and further work has looked at forms of 3D conceptual models. However, no one has sought to embed the conceptual models into a fully featured 3D world, using the spatial annotations to explicate the underlying model clearly. In this paper, we present an approach to conceptual process model visualisation that enhances a 3D virtual world with annotations representing process constructs, facilitating insight into the developed model. We then present a prototype implementation of a 3D Virtual BPMN Editor that embeds BPMN process models into a 3D world. We show how this gives extra support for tasks performed by the conceptual modeller, providing better process model communication to stakeholders..

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Financial processes may possess long memory and their probability densities may display heavy tails. Many models have been developed to deal with this tail behaviour, which reflects the jumps in the sample paths. On the other hand, the presence of long memory, which contradicts the efficient market hypothesis, is still an issue for further debates. These difficulties present challenges with the problems of memory detection and modelling the co-presence of long memory and heavy tails. This PhD project aims to respond to these challenges. The first part aims to detect memory in a large number of financial time series on stock prices and exchange rates using their scaling properties. Since financial time series often exhibit stochastic trends, a common form of nonstationarity, strong trends in the data can lead to false detection of memory. We will take advantage of a technique known as multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) that can systematically eliminate trends of different orders. This method is based on the identification of scaling of the q-th-order moments and is a generalisation of the standard detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) which uses only the second moment; that is, q = 2. We also consider the rescaled range R/S analysis and the periodogram method to detect memory in financial time series and compare their results with the MF-DFA. An interesting finding is that short memory is detected for stock prices of the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and long memory is found present in the time series of two exchange rates, namely the French franc and the Deutsche mark. Electricity price series of the five states of Australia are also found to possess long memory. For these electricity price series, heavy tails are also pronounced in their probability densities. The second part of the thesis develops models to represent short-memory and longmemory financial processes as detected in Part I. These models take the form of continuous-time AR(∞) -type equations whose kernel is the Laplace transform of a finite Borel measure. By imposing appropriate conditions on this measure, short memory or long memory in the dynamics of the solution will result. A specific form of the models, which has a good MA(∞) -type representation, is presented for the short memory case. Parameter estimation of this type of models is performed via least squares, and the models are applied to the stock prices in the AMEX, which have been established in Part I to possess short memory. By selecting the kernel in the continuous-time AR(∞) -type equations to have the form of Riemann-Liouville fractional derivative, we obtain a fractional stochastic differential equation driven by Brownian motion. This type of equations is used to represent financial processes with long memory, whose dynamics is described by the fractional derivative in the equation. These models are estimated via quasi-likelihood, namely via a continuoustime version of the Gauss-Whittle method. The models are applied to the exchange rates and the electricity prices of Part I with the aim of confirming their possible long-range dependence established by MF-DFA. The third part of the thesis provides an application of the results established in Parts I and II to characterise and classify financial markets. We will pay attention to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), the NASDAQ Stock Exchange (NASDAQ) and the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). The parameters from MF-DFA and those of the short-memory AR(∞) -type models will be employed in this classification. We propose the Fisher discriminant algorithm to find a classifier in the two and three-dimensional spaces of data sets and then provide cross-validation to verify discriminant accuracies. This classification is useful for understanding and predicting the behaviour of different processes within the same market. The fourth part of the thesis investigates the heavy-tailed behaviour of financial processes which may also possess long memory. We consider fractional stochastic differential equations driven by stable noise to model financial processes such as electricity prices. The long memory of electricity prices is represented by a fractional derivative, while the stable noise input models their non-Gaussianity via the tails of their probability density. A method using the empirical densities and MF-DFA will be provided to estimate all the parameters of the model and simulate sample paths of the equation. The method is then applied to analyse daily spot prices for five states of Australia. Comparison with the results obtained from the R/S analysis, periodogram method and MF-DFA are provided. The results from fractional SDEs agree with those from MF-DFA, which are based on multifractal scaling, while those from the periodograms, which are based on the second order, seem to underestimate the long memory dynamics of the process. This highlights the need and usefulness of fractal methods in modelling non-Gaussian financial processes with long memory.

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This paper aims to develop an effective numerical simulation technique for the dynamic deflection analysis of nanotubes-based nanoswitches. The nanoswitch is simplified to a continuum structure, and some key material parameters are extracted from typical molecular dynamics (MD). An advanced local meshless formulation is applied to obtain the discretized dynamic equations for the numerical solution. The developed numerical technique is firstly validated by the static deflection analyses of nanoswitches, and then, the fundamental dynamic properties of nanoswitches are analyzed. A parametric comparison with the results in the literature and from experiments shows that the developed modelling approach is accurate, efficient and effective.